Return Period Flood Research Articles

Exposure to Floods, Climate Change, and Poverty in Vietnam

With 70% of its population living in coastal areas and low-lying deltas, Vietnam is highly exposed to riverine and coastal flooding. This paper conducts a “stress-test” and examines the exposure of the population and poor people in particular to current and future flooding in Vietnam and specifically in Ho Chi Minh City. We develop new high-resolution flood hazard maps at 90 m horizontal resolution, and combine this with spatially-explicit socioeconomic data on poverty at the country and city level, two datasets often kept separate. The national-level analysis finds that a third of today’s population is already exposed to a flood, which occurs once every 25 years, assuming no protection. For the same return period flood under current socioeconomic conditions, climate change may increase the number exposed to 38 to 46% of the population (an increase of 13–27% above current exposure), depending on the severity of sea level rise. While poor districts are not found to be more exposed to floods at the national level, the city-level analysis of Ho Chi Minh City provides evidence that slum areas are more exposed than other urban areas. The results of this paper provide an estimate of the potential exposure under climate change, including for poor people, and can provide input on where to locate future investments in flood risk management.

Future Changes in Flood Hazards across Canada under a Changing Climate

Climate change has induced considerable changes in the dynamics of key hydro-climatic variables across Canada, including floods. In this study, runoff projections made by 21 General Climate Models (GCMs) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used to generate 25 km resolution streamflow estimates across Canada for historical (1961–2005) and future (2061–2100) time-periods. These estimates are used to calculate future projected changes in flood magnitudes and timings across Canada. Results obtained indicate that flood frequencies in the northernmost regions of Canada, and south-western Ontario can be expected to increase in the future. As an example, the historical 100-year return period events in these regions are expected to become 10–60 year return period events. On the other hand, northern prairies and north-central Ontario can be expected to experience decreases in flooding frequencies in future. The historical 100-year return period flood events in these regions are expected to become 160–200 year return period events in future. Furthermore, prairies, parts of Quebec, Ontario, Nunavut, and Yukon territories can be expected to experience earlier snowmelt-driven floods in the future. The results from this study will help decision-makers to effectively manage and design municipal and civil infrastructure in Canada under a changing climate.

Flood frequency analysis of river Jhelum in Kashmir basin

This study aims to carry out the flood frequency analysis (FFA) of river Jhelum in Kashmir basin. Gumbel and Log-Pearson Type III (LP3) probability distributions were employed for simulating the future flood discharge scenarios using annual peak flow data (1956–2014) from three gauging stations of the River Jhelum. The predicted design floods of various return periods (Tr) i.e., 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 200 were obtained and compared. The findings reveal that the estimated discharge of all the return periods exceeds the current average carrying capacity (∼35000 cusecs in Srinagar) of the river. It is thus likely that any flood event with the return period of five years or above would overflow the banks of the River Jhelum. Furthermore, the present study demonstrates that the river discharge can be satisfactorily projected by any one of the used probability distribution methods; however, as revealed by the goodness-of-fit test, Log-Pearson Type III was found to be the better fitted probability distribution among the two.

Optimal Design of Check Dams in Mountainous Watersheds for Flood Mitigation

One of the measures for flood control is to construct a series of small barriers, known also as check dams, on tributaries of watershed stream network. Check dams are generally used in mountainous areas in order to control sediment transport and attenuate flood peak. In this paper, a simulation-based optimization model is developed to determine size, shape and the number of check dams for flood mitigation. HEC-HMS model is used to simulate watershed rainfall-runoff process considering various check dam designs. The model is coupled with a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, called non-dominated sorting differential evolution (NSDE), to find the trade-off solutions considering three objective functions: 1) minimizing the investment cost, 2) minimizing the flood peak discharge and 3) maximizing the time to peak discharge. The proposed model is applied to a mountainous watershed in Iran and (near) optimal strategies, including the suitable number of check dams in each sub-watershed, and optimal dam size (e.g. optimal height, bottom width and side angles) in each sub-watershed are obtained. The results show that cost-effective designs can decrease peak discharge up to 53%, 54 and 54% corresponding to 2-yr, 5-yr and 10-yr flood return period scenarios, respectively. In addition, the check dams can also increase the time to peak for up to 88%, 81 and 77%, corresponding to 2-yr, 5-yr and 10-yr flood scenarios, respectively.

Assessment of the flood hazard arising from land use change in a forested catchment in northern Iran

The provinces of northern Iran that border the Caspian Sea are forested and may be prone to increased risks of flooding due to deforestation and other land use changes, in addition to climate change effects. This research investigated changes in runoff from a small forested catchment in northern Iran for several land use change scenarios and the effects of higher rainfall and high antecedent soil moisture. Peak discharges and total runoff volumes from the catchment were estimated using the U.S. Soil Conservation Service “Curve Number” (SCS‐CN) method and the SCS dimensionless unit hydrograph. This method was selected for reasons of data availability and operational simplicity for flood managers. A geographical information system (GIS) was used to manipulate spatial data for use in the catchment runoff modelling. The results show that runoff is predicted to increase as a result of deforestation, which is dependent on the proportion of the catchment area affected. However, climate change presents a significant flood hazard even in the absence of deforestation. Other land use changes may reduce the peak discharges of all return period floods. Therefore a future ban on timber extraction, combined with agricultural utilisation of rangeland, could prove effective as “nature‐based” flood reduction measures throughout northern Iran.

An integrated approach for investigating the correlation between floods and river morphology: A case study of the Saalach River, Germany

Man-made structures in the Saalach River have changed the hydromorphological characteristics of the river regime. In some river reaches, the Saalach has lost the high morphological versatility and high variation in sediment transport characteristic of a mountain river. Among the negative effects, an extreme flow discharge in combination with riverbed variation could be one of the possible causes of flood disasters along the river. For example, the heavy and long lasting rainfall in June 2013 led to a peak discharge of 1100 m3/s, which was slightly above the 100-year flood return period, inundating a nearby city. However, the influence of the man-made structures on this flood event in this reach is unclear. In this study an integrative hydromorphological model is applied to evaluate this impact by a comparison with a standard clear water model with fixed bed. Moreover, a comparative analysis of a three-and two-dimensional flow model is performed to assess the models suitability representing the flow in this river stretch. The integrative model concept is based on the software TELEMAC-MASCARET, in an enhanced version for better representing graded sediment transport in rivers. In contrast to our integrative model, the standard clear water model with fixed bed overestimates the water elevations as it cannot take the significant changes in morphology into account. Results demonstrate that our proposed model more accurately represents the inundation in the floodplain and could thus be used to provide more reliable predictions to decision-makers for improved flood protection strategy.

Long‐Term Changes in Global Socioeconomic Benefits of Flood Defenses and Residual Risk Based on CMIP5 Climate Models

A warmer climate is expected to accelerate the global hydrological cycle, causing more intense precipitation and floods. Despite recent progress in global flood risk assessment, the socioeconomic benefits of flood defenses (i.e., reduction in population/economic exposure) and the residual risk (i.e., residual population/economic exposure) are poorly understood globally and regionally. To address these knowledge gaps, we use the runoff data from a baseline and 11 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models to drive the Catchment‐based Macro‐scale Floodplain model incorporating the latest satellite river width information. From the simulated annual maxima, we use a Gumbel distribution to estimate the river water depth‐flood return period relationship. We independently evaluate flood impacts on population and economy (i.e., gross domestic product) for a range of flood return periods. We estimate the socioeconomic benefits and the corresponding residual risk for the globe and 26 subcontinental regions. The global population (gross domestic product) exposed to flooding is ∼8% (∼7%) per year lower when implementing existing flood protection infrastructure extracted from the FLOod PROtection Standards database. If the current flood defenses were to be unchanged in the future (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 [RCP4.5] and RCP8.5, i.e., ∼2 to ∼4.3°C above the preindustrial levels), the globe and most of the regions (particularly where developing countries are concentrated) would experience an increase in residual risk. This increase is especially obvious when the gap of climate forcing between RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 widens by the end of the 21st century. We finally evaluate the impact of changed flood defense levels on the socioeconomic benefits and the corresponding residual risk.

Flood Management in Mahanadi Basin using HEC-RAS and Gumbel’s Extreme Value Distribution

Using Gumbel’s extreme value distribution and HEC-RAS hydrodynamic model, the levels of peak floods at different locations of Mahanadi River reach between Hirakud dam and Naraj (delta head of Mahanadi) for 10, 25, 50 and 100 years return period are estimated. Based on the simulation study carried out considering 36 cross sections for 310 km length of river, it is observed that the heightening of embankment system for almost all the existing bank stations both in the left and right embankments are required. In the present study, the analysis has been carried out considering 25 years return period floods (45067 cumecs), as this flood is considered as most significant and under changed climatic conditions. The results of the study show that out 36 cross sections, at 23 sections, heightening of embankment spanning from a minimum of 0.11 m to a maximum of 10.63 m in the left bank should be carried out. Similarly for right bank embankment heightening is needed from 0.09 m to a maximum of 9.94 m. This can very effectively minimize the flood hazard of the Mahanadi River system.

Calculation of nonstationary flood return period considering historical extraordinary flood events

With climate change and intensification of human activities, the flood generation mechanism has been influenced which results in the nonstationarity of flood time series. In this study, in order to use historical flood data for flood frequency analysis, a nonlinear AutoRegressive exogenous (ARX) model was employed to complement missing flood data between the historical and recorded data. The key statistics of the complemented time series agreed well with those of the documented record. Using EWT (the expected waiting time until an exceedance) and ENE (the expected number of events in m year is one), nonstationary flood return periods were estimated by the complemented and recorded annual maximum flood peak series, respectively. The results showed that the return levels under nonstationarity are smaller than those under stationarity due to the construction of small hydraulic structures and many check dams after 1980s. This study implies that it is necessary to refine the flood return levels and the corresponding flood control measures for nonstationary flood series due to environmental change.

Evaluation of Flood Risk Reduction Project at Tenggang River, Semarang City, Central Java Province, Indonesia

Evaluation of flood risk reduction at Tenggang River is needed to reduce the urban and coastal flood from high-intensity rainfall and sea level rise. This paper mainly discusses rainfall frequency analysis, simulation of hydraulic structure performed by HEC-RAS 5.0.3, and the proposed alternative flood mitigation for 25-year flood return period. Hydrology and hydraulic was analyzed to investigate the flooding risk. The result of simulation illustrated the improvement channel condition by normalization the riverbed and the increase of levee to solve flood inundation at Tenggang River using the designated flood return period (25 years of return period, Q25 = 119 m3/s). The result of simulation showed that the hydrologic-hydraulic modeling is acceptable compared to the report from the office of public work in Semarang City.

Performance of Retarding Basin in Flood Disaster Risk Mitigation in Welang River, East Java Province, Indonesia

Flood phenomenon caused by high rainfall and sea tides on a watershed seat the tidal area, including the Welang River, commonly occur and the number of events is increasing. Construction of retarding basin is one of flood risk mitigation efforts by reducing the flood peak discharge. Assessment of flood management in Welang River was conducted with hydrology and hydraulic approaches, by using the Hydrologic Engineering Centre-Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS) 4.0 and Hydrologic Engineering Center–River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) 5.0.3 software. The hydraulic simulation consists of 4 scenarios. Scenario 1 was the current condition, while scenario 2, 3, and 4 were the retarding basin construction with one side spillway, one on the upstream (River Station (RS) 7400), on the middle (RS 6970), and on the downstream (RS 6590), respectively. The height variation of side spillways are 3 m and 4 m. Flood routing simulation result showed that the existing river channel condition could not accommodate of 2-year flood and 10-year flood, which caused peak discharge of 497.7 m3/s and 794.9 m3/s. At the RS 6590, the maximum runoff height of 2-year and 10-year flood were 0.66 and 1.02 m, respectively. Under the 2-year return period of flood, the discharge reduction caused by the retarding basin at control point RS 5341.4 (Karangketug Village), were 39.63 m3/s, 31.83 m3/s, and 41.93 m3/s, respectively for scenario 2, 3 and 4 with the 3 m side spillway height and 14.71 m3/s, 16.76 m3/s, and 13.74 m3/s, respectively for scenario 2, 3 and 4 with the 4 m side spillway height.

Impact of Sedimentation Counter Measure on the Performance of Flood Control: A Case Study of Wonogiri Reservoir

The Wonogiri Reservoir with 1.343 km2 catchment area has a major problem of sedimentation. To overcome this issue, a new spillway has been built and closure dike is being constructed to localize sediment inflow from the Keduang watershed. Study on the effect of the closure and overflow dike on the reservoir operation in flood period is necessary to evaluate the performance of flood control related to the flood risk in the downstream area of the reservoir. For this purpose, the reservoir routing simulation model was developed under two condition, namely old condition and new condition with the new spillway and closure dike. The reservoir routing simulation was conducted for three inflow hydrographs of 60 and 500 years return period, and probable maximum flood (PMF). The results show that the presence of closure dike causes the peak outflow discharge increases to 1.45%, 75.18% and 56.28% for inflow hydrograph of 60 years, 500 years return period and PMF, respectively. Furthermore, the maximum water level also increases by 0.3 m, 1.9 m and 0.9 m for those three new design floods respectively. In order to reduce the dam overtopping failure chance of the 500 years return period flood, it is recommended to operate full opening of the new spillway gate when the water level reaches elevation +135.6 m MSL.

Sustainability Evaluation Framework of Urban Stormwater Drainage Options for Arid Environments Using Hydraulic Modeling and Multicriteria Decision-Making

Stormwater drainage systems in urban areas located in arid environmental regions generally consist of storm-sewer networks and man-made ponds for the collection and disposal of runoff, respectively. Due to expansion in cities’ boundaries as a result of population growth, the capacity of existing drainage systems has been exhausted. Therefore, such systems overflow even during the smaller (than the design) return period floods. At the same time, changing rainfall patterns and flash floods due to climate change are other phenomena that need appropriate attention. Consequently, the municipalities in arid environmental regions are facing challenges for effective decision-making concerning (i) improvement needs for drainage networks for safe collection of stormwater, (ii) selection of most feasible locations for additional ponds, and (iii) evaluation of other suitable options, such as micro-tunneling. In this research, a framework has been developed to evaluate different stormwater drainage options for urban areas of arid regions. Rainfall-runoff modeling was performed with the help of Hydrological-Engineering-Centre, Hydrological-Modelling-System (HEC-HMS). To evaluate the efficacy of each option for handling a given design flood, hydraulic-modeling was performed using SewerGEMS. Meteorological and topographical data was gathered from the Municipality of Buraydah and processed to generate different inputs required for hydraulic modeling. Finally, multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) was performed to evaluate all the options on the basis of four sustainability criteria, i.e., flood risk, economic viability, environmental impacts, and technical constraints. Criteria weights were established through group decision-making using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Preference-Ranking-Organization-Method for Enrichment-Evaluation (PROMETHEE II) was used for final ranking of stormwater drainage options. The proposed framework has been implemented on a case of Buraydah City, Qassim, Saudi Arabia, to evaluate its pragmatism. Micro-tunnelling was found to be the most sustainable option.

Return period assessment of urban pluvial floods through modelling of rainfall–flood response

AbstractIntense rainfall in urban areas can often generate severe flood impacts. Consequently, it is crucial to design systems to minimize potential flood damages. Traditional, simple design of urban drainage systems assumes agreement between rainfall return period and its consequent flood return period; however, this does not always apply. Hydraulic infrastructures found in urban drainage systems can increase system heterogeneity and perturb the impact of severe rainfall response. In this study, a surface flood return period assessment was carried out at Lystrup (Denmark), which has received the impact of flooding in recent years. A 35 years' rainfall dataset together with a coupled 1D/2D surface and network model was used to analyse and assess flood return period response. Results show an ambiguous relation between rainfall and flood return periods indicating that linear rainfall–runoff relationships will, for the analysed case study, be insufficient for flood estimation. Simulation-based mapping of return periods for flood area and volume has been suggested, and moreover, a novel approach has been developed to map local flood response time and relate this to rainfall characteristics. This approach allows to carefully analyse rainfall impacts and flooding response for a correct flood return period assessment in urban areas.

Exploration of severities of rainfall and runoff extremes in ungauged catchments: A case study of Lai Chi Wo in Hong Kong, China

Exploration for estimating rainfall and runoff extremes in ungauged catchments is challenging since there are no field measurements of rainfall and streamflow for confirming study results. This study proposed a systematic approach to tackle the challenge, and the approach includes field survey, rainfall data collection, frequency analysis, installation of equipment in the study area, and numerical modeling. The approach was then applied to the Lai Chi Wo (LCW) catchment in Hong Kong, China, in order to evaluate the severity of a rainstorm and flood event occurred on 11 May 2014. With the collection of rainfall data from the rain gauges near the catchment, the proxy rainfall dataset for LCW was developed. Since the time of concentration of the catchment is about 30 to 40min, this study derived rainfall intensity duration frequency (IDF) curves for 9 different durations (5min, 10min, 15min, 20min, 30min, 45min, 1h, 1.5h, and 1day) and 7 different return periods (2, 3, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100years). Further, a hydrological model, TOPMODEL, was used to simulate streamflow process; to calibrate the model parameters, a rain gauge was set up in the catchment and a water level sensor was installed at a control cross-section of the LCW river in January 2015, and the recorded rainfall and runoff data were used to calibrate the model parameters. Using the proxy rainfall data, this study obtained the simulated streamflow for the catchment, and then derived the streamflow peaks for 7 different return periods (2, 3, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100years). Since the time of concentration of the catchment is less than 1h, this study derived that the return periods of the rainstorm on 11 May 2014 for the durations of 30min and 1h are 2.4 and 1.9years, respectively; the return period of the daily rainfall is 9.6years. The return period of the peak flood of the event is 7.0years, and this value is between the return periods of the rainfall for the durations of the time of concentration and 1day. This study revealed that the severities of rainfall and runoff extremes are not consistent but rationally related, and the 1- and 3-day antecedent rainfalls can considerably influence flood peak severity. Overall, to achieve rational prediction of ungauged basin hydrological processes, it is fundamental to install measurement equipment and to record rainfall and streamflow data. Even though the period of the recorded data in the ungauged catchment is short, the observations are necessary for evaluating the proxy data quality, and calibrating and validating the numerical model.

Flood Discharge Analysis with Nakayasu Method Using Combination of HEC-RAS Method on Deli River in Medan City

The problem in this research is how in the rainy season the water does not overflow, does not occur flood and during the dry season does not occur drought so it can adjust the condition or existence of Deli river which is around Medan city. Deli River floods often occur, either caused by a smaller capacity than the existing discharge, lack of maintenance and drainage and disposal systems that do not fit with the environment, resulting in flood subscriptions every year. The purpose of this research is to know flood discharge at Deli river as Flood control in Medan city. This research is analyzed on several methods such as log Pearson, Gumbel and hydrograph unit, while HEC-RAS method is modeling conducted in analyzing the water profile of the Deli River. Furthermore, the calculation of the periodic flood discharge using the Nakayasu Method. Calculation result at Deli River return period flood discharge 2 years with an area of 14.8 km2 annual flood hydrograph the total is 26.79 m3/sec on the hours at the 4th time. Return period flood discharge 5 years with an area of 14.8 km2 annual flood hydrograph the total is 73,44 m3/sec. While 25 annual return period total flood hydrograph is 146.50 m3/sec. With flood analysis can reduce and minimize the risk of losses and land can be mapped if in the area there is flooding.

Flood coincidence analysis of Poyang Lake and Yangtze River: risk and influencing factors

We build copula function-based joint distribution models for the annual maximum flood peaks of the Yangtze River and Poyang Lake, to analyze the coincidence probabilities, using scenarios that combine with the impoundment of three Gorges, define influencing indexes and relative contribution rates on flood coincidence at varying frequencies. The study shows the probabilities for coincidence of floods with 1000, 100, and 10-year return periods in both Yangtze main stem and Poyang Lake are respectively 0.02, 0.19 and 2.87%, with higher coincidence probabilities for shorter return periods; when 1000-year flood occurs in the Yangtze, the probabilities for Poyang Lake to encounter flood of the 1000, 100, or 10-year magnitude are higher than 16.08, 42.48 or 74.77% respectively; Poyang–Yangtze flood coincidence is affected by operation of the hydraulic engineering. The lowering of flood peaks caused by the Three Gorges impoundment and regulation of the lake have respectively reduced the probabilities of Poyang–Yangtze flood coincidence by about 7.0 and 1.97%, with average relative contribution rates − 33.82 and − 17.1%; influenced by hydrological projects in Poyang basin, variations in Poyang’s inflow flood have displayed an average contribution rate of 20.4% for the negative effect on extreme (P 90%) flood coincidence, while having a positive contribution rate of 38.2% on floods of other return periods. The results can help increase our understanding of flood coincidence, and support flood control efforts in Poyang Lake; its analytical approach may also be useful to other applications of copula functions.

Risk Assessment and Simulation on Storm Flood of the 100-Year Return Period in Hunhe River Basin

Based on the meteorological and geographic information data, with statistical method and the FloodArea model, the extreme daily rainfall of the 100-year return period in Hunhe River basin was established, through the simulation of rainstorm and flood disaster, characteristics of flood depth in warning spot Cangshi village in the upstream of the river were analysed, and possible effect on community economy was also evaluated. Results showed that, the precipitation of 100-year return period occurred, the flood depth has been below 1.0 meter in the most areas of Hunhe River basin, the depth was between 1.0 meter and 2.5 meters in the part areas of Hunhe River basin, and the flood depth has been exceed 2.5 meters in a small part of Hunhe River basin. After the beginning of precipitation, the flood was concentrated in the upper reaches of the river. With the accumulation of precipitation and the passage of time, the flood pools into midstream and downstream. Precipitation lasted for 24 hours, the warning spot was flooded in the beginning of precipitation. With the accumulation of precipitation, water level of the river increases gradually. The depth of warning spot has passed 1.0 meter at the 07 time of the whole process, and the maximum value of flood depth at warning spot was 1.083 meters that occurred at the 19 time. The flood depth of warning spot decreased gradually after the precipitation stopping, and the depth has been below 0.2 meters, the flood of upstream ended. Up to the end of the upstream flood process, in the whole river, about one million five hundred and sixty thousand people were affected by flooding, and thirty-eight billion and two hundred million RMB of gross domestic product were lost, in addition, dry land and paddy field were affected greatly, but woodland and grassland were less affected.

Morphology of fluvial levee series along a river under human influence, Maros River, Hungary

The development and morphometry of fluvial levees reflect the connection between channel and overbank processes, which can be altered by various human activities. The aims of this study are to investigate the morphology and spatial characteristics of fluvial levees and evaluate the role of some local- and catchment-scale human activities on their medium-term (150years) development. This study applies LiDAR data along a 53-km-long reach of the Maros River in Hungary.Six fluvial levee types are identified based on the beginning and end of their evolution. These levee types were generated by local nineteenth century channel regulation works (cutoffs) and mid-twentieth century channel narrowing, which was caused by gravel mining and water impoundment in the upstream sections. However, other human activities also influenced the development of active fluvial levees because their horizontal evolution could have been limited by embanked flood-protection levees or the widening of low-lying floodplain benches that were generated by channel narrowing. Additionally, revetment constructions influenced their vertical parameters as higher fluvial levees developed along the fixed banks. Generally, the older active fluvial levees are wider, while the younger active levees are narrower with steeper slopes but not always lower. On the low-lying floodplain levels (benches), the youngest fluvial levees evolved quite rapidly and consist of coarser material. Currently, only 9.8- to 38-year return-period floods could cover the fluvial levees, contributing to their evolution. This fact and the development of fluvial levee series with two-three members reflect a gradual decoupling of the channel from the floodplain.

A hurricane surge risk assessment framework using the joint probability method and surge response functions

Hurricane surge events have caused devastating damage in active-hurricane areas all over the world. The ability to predict surge elevations and to use this information for damage estimation is fundamental for saving lives and protecting property. In this study, we developed a framework for evaluating hurricane flood risk and identifying areas that are more prone to them. The approach is based on the joint probability method with optimal sampling (JPM-OS) using surge response functions (SRFs) (JPM-OS-SRF). Derived from a discrete set of high-fidelity storm surge simulations, SRFs are non-dimensional, physics-based empirical equations with an algebraic form, used to rapidly estimate surge as a function of hurricane parameters (i.e., central pressure, radius, forward speed, approach angle and landfall location). The advantage of an SRF-based approach is that a continuum of storm scenarios can be efficiently evaluated and used to estimate continuous probability density functions for surge extremes, producing more statistically stable surge hazard assessments without adding measurably to epistemic uncertainty. SRFs were developed along the coastline and then used to estimate maximum surge elevations with respect to a set of hurricane parameters. Integrating information such as ground elevation, property value and population with the JPM-OS-SRF allows quantification of storm surge-induced hazard impacts over the continuum of storm possibilities, yielding a framework to create the following risk-based products, which can be used to assist in hurricane hazard management and decision making: (1) expected annual loss maps; (2) flood damage versus return period relationships; and (3) affected business (e.g., number of business, number of employees) versus return period relationships. By employing several simplifying assumptions, the framework is demonstrated at three northern Gulf of Mexico study sites exhibiting similar surge hazard exposure. The framework results reveal Gulfport, MS, USA is at relatively more risk of economic loss than Corpus Christi, TX, USA, and Panama City, FL, USA. Note that economic processes are complex and very interrelated to most other human activities. Our intention here is to present a methodology to quantify the flood damage (i.e., infrastructure economic loss, number of businesses affected, number of employees in these affected businesses and sales volume in these affected businesses) but not to discuss the complex interactions of these damages with other economic activities and recovery plans.