Abstract
Climate change has induced considerable changes in the dynamics of key hydro-climatic variables across Canada, including floods. In this study, runoff projections made by 21 General Climate Models (GCMs) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used to generate 25 km resolution streamflow estimates across Canada for historical (1961–2005) and future (2061–2100) time-periods. These estimates are used to calculate future projected changes in flood magnitudes and timings across Canada. Results obtained indicate that flood frequencies in the northernmost regions of Canada, and south-western Ontario can be expected to increase in the future. As an example, the historical 100-year return period events in these regions are expected to become 10–60 year return period events. On the other hand, northern prairies and north-central Ontario can be expected to experience decreases in flooding frequencies in future. The historical 100-year return period flood events in these regions are expected to become 160–200 year return period events in future. Furthermore, prairies, parts of Quebec, Ontario, Nunavut, and Yukon territories can be expected to experience earlier snowmelt-driven floods in the future. The results from this study will help decision-makers to effectively manage and design municipal and civil infrastructure in Canada under a changing climate.
Highlights
IntroductionFloods are the most frequently occurring natural hazard in Canada and around the globe [1,2,3,4].A number of studies have been performed in different parts of the globe to establish methods for effective quantification of floods and their associated risks [5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17]
The impacts of climate change have been detected on the characteristics of streamflow and their
The impacts of climate change have been detected on the characteristics of streamflow and their extremes in catchments distributed across Canada
Summary
Floods are the most frequently occurring natural hazard in Canada and around the globe [1,2,3,4].A number of studies have been performed in different parts of the globe to establish methods for effective quantification of floods and their associated risks [5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17]. Studies have investigated methods to quantify compound flooding i.e., that are caused by two or more events contributing to flooding example occurrence of extreme rainfall, variations in astronomical tides, storm surge, and wave action, rise in groundwater levels etc., occurring simultaneously or successively [18,19]. Changes in key hydro-climatic elements and their extremes have been recorded across Canada [21,23] and unprecedented changes are projected for the future [24,25,26]. These changes in climate, coupled with rapid urbanization, have led to increases in the frequencies and magnitudes of flooding events in Canada. A total of 241 flood disasters have been recorded in Canada between 1990 and 2005 [4], many of which have occurred in major Canadian cities such as: Montreal in 2012, Thunder Bay in 2012, Calgary in 2013 and 2010, Winnipeg in 1997 and 2009, and Toronto in 2005 and 2013 [27]. [The trends in hydrological extremes for 248 Reference Hydrometric
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