Return Period Of Events Research Articles

Static and dynamic mooring analysis – Stability of floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) risers for extreme environmental conditions

Floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) facilities are used at most of the offshore oil fields worldwide. FPSO usage is expected to grow as oil fields move to deeper water, thus requiring the reliability and stability of mooring wires and risers in extreme environmental conditions. Except for the case of predictable attack angles of external loadings, FPSO facilities with turret single point mooring (SPM) systems are in general use. There are two types of turret systems: permanent systems and disconnectable turret mooring systems. Extreme environment criteria for permanent moorings are usually based on a 100-year return period event. It is common to use two or three environments including the 100-year wave with associated wind and current, and the 100-year wind with associated waves and current. When fitted with a disconnectable turret mooring system, FPSOs can be used in areas where it is desirable to remove the production unit from the field temporarily to prevent exposure to extreme events such as cyclones or large icebergs. Static and dynamic mooring analyses were performed to evaluate the stability of a spider buoy after disconnection from a turret during cyclone environmental conditions.

Bayesian Estimation for GEV-B-Spline Model

The stationarity hypothesis is essential in hydrological frequency analysis and statistical inference. This assumption is often not fulfilled for large observed datasets, especially in the case of hydro-climatic variables. The Generalized Extreme Value distribution with covariates allows to model data in the presence of non-stationarity and/or dependence on covariates. Linear and non-linear dependence structures have been proposed with the corresponding fitting approach. The objective of the present study is to develop the GEV model with B-Spline in a Bayesian framework. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm has been developed to estimate quantiles and their posterior distributions. The methods are tested and illustrated using simulated data and applied to meteorological data. Results indicate the better performance of the proposed Bayesian method for rainfall quantile estimation according to BIAS and RMSE criteria especially for high return period events.

A study of the climate change impacts on fluvial flood propagation in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta

Abstract. The present paper investigated the extent of the flood propagation in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta under different projected flood hydrographs, considering the 2000 flood event (the 20-yr return period event, T. V. H. Le et al., 2007) as the basis for computation. The analysis herein was done to demonstrate the particular complexity of the flood dynamics, which was simulated by the 1-D modelling system ISIS used by the Mekong River Commission. The floods of the year 2050 are simulated using a projected sea level rise of +30 cm. The future flood hydrograph changes at Kratie, Cambodia, were also applied for the upstream boundary condition by using an adjusted regional climate model. Two future flood hydrographs were applied at the upstream part of the delta, the first one in a scenario of climate change without considering developments in the Mekong Basin,and the second one in a scenario of climate change taking into account future development of the delta. Analyses were done to identify the areas sensitive to floods, considering the uncertainty of the projection of both the upstream and downstream boundary conditions. In addition, due to the rice-dominated culture in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta, possible impacts of floods on the rice-based farming systems were also analysed.

Comparação de equações de chuvas intensas para localidades do estado de São Paulo

Dada a importância das equações de chuvas intensas para o dimensionamento de obras de controle de enxurradas, este trabalho teve como objetivo comparar as alturas precipitadas geradas pelas equações de Martinez & Magni (1999) com aquelas obtidas com o programa PLUVIO 2.1, considerando as primeiras como padrão. Foram comparadas chuvas intensas de 10; 20; 30; 60; 120 e 1.440 minutos, e períodos de retorno de 2; 5; 10; 50 e 100 anos, para 30 localidades do Estado de São Paulo. Os resultados revelaram que, principalmente para as chuvas de 24 horas e período de retorno de 100 anos, houve desvios importantes para 4 postos localizados na região central e a leste do Estado. Para as demais localidades o programa apresentou bom desempenho.

Using the UKCP09 probabilistic scenarios to model the amplified impact of climate change on drainage basin sediment yield

Abstract. Precipitation intensities and the frequency of extreme events are projected to increase under climate change. These rainfall changes will lead to increases in the magnitude and frequency of flood events that will, in turn, affect patterns of erosion and deposition within river basins. These geomorphic changes to river systems may affect flood conveyance, infrastructure resilience, channel pattern, and habitat status as well as sediment, nutrient and carbon fluxes. Previous research modelling climatic influences on geomorphic changes has been limited by how climate variability and change are represented by downscaling from global or regional climate models. Furthermore, the non-linearity of the climatic, hydrological and geomorphic systems involved generate large uncertainties at each stage of the modelling process creating an uncertainty "cascade". This study integrates state-of-the-art approaches from the climate change and geomorphic communities to address these issues in a probabilistic modelling study of the Swale catchment, UK. The UKCP09 weather generator is used to simulate hourly rainfall for the baseline and climate change scenarios up to 2099, and used to drive the CAESAR landscape evolution model to simulate geomorphic change. Results show that winter rainfall is projected to increase, with larger increases at the extremes. The impact of the increasing rainfall is amplified through the translation into catchment runoff and in turn sediment yield with a 100% increase in catchment mean sediment yield predicted between the baseline and the 2070–2099 High emissions scenario. Significant increases are shown between all climate change scenarios and baseline values. Analysis of extreme events also shows the amplification effect from rainfall to sediment delivery with even greater amplification associated with higher return period events. Furthermore, for the 2070–2099 High emissions scenario, sediment discharges from 50-yr return period events are predicted to be 5 times larger than baseline values.

Regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfalls using partial L moments method

An approach based on regional frequency analysis using L moments and LH moments are revisited in this study. Subsequently, an alternative regional frequency analysis using the partial L moments (PL moments) method is employed, and a new relationship for homogeneity analysis is developed. The results were then compared with those obtained using the method of L moments and LH moments of order two. The Selangor catchment, consisting of 37 sites and located on the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia, is chosen as a case study. PL moments for the generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized logistic (GLO), and generalized Pareto distributions were derived and used to develop the regional frequency analysis procedure. PL moment ratio diagram and Z test were employed in determining the best-fit distribution. Comparison between the three approaches showed that GLO and GEV distributions were identified as the suitable distributions for representing the statistical properties of extreme rainfall in Selangor. Monte Carlo simulation used for performance evaluation shows that the method of PL moments would outperform L and LH moments methods for estimation of large return period events.

Estimation of the generalized logistic distribution of extreme events using partial L-moments

Statistical analysis of extreme events is often carried out to predict large return period events. In this paper, the use of partial L-moments (PL-moments) for estimating hydrological extremes from censored data is compared to that of simple L-moments. Expressions of parameter estimation are derived to fit the generalized logistic (GLO) distribution based on the PL-moments approach. Monte Carlo analysis is used to examine the sampling properties of PL-moments in fitting the GLO distribution to both GLO and non-GLO samples. Finally, both PL-moments and L-moments are used to fit the GLO distribution to 37 annual maximum rainfall series of raingauge station Kampung Lui (3118102) in Selangor, Malaysia, and it is found that analysis of censored rainfall samples of PL-moments would improve the estimation of large return period events. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor K. Hamed Citation Zakaria, Z.A., Shabri, A. and Ahmad, U.N., 2012. Estimation of the generalized logistic distribution of extreme events using partial L-moments. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (3), 424–432.

Trimmed L-moments (1,0) for the generalized Pareto distribution

Statistical analysis of extremes is often used for predicting the higher return-period events. In this paper, the trimmed L-moments with one smallest value trimmed—TL-moments (1,0)—are introduced as an alternative way to estimate floods for high return periods. The TL-moments (1,0) have an ability to reduce the undesirable influence that a small value in the statistical sample might have on a large return period. The main objective of this study is to derive the TL-moments (1,0) for the generalized Pareto (GPA) distribution. The performance of the TL-moments (1,0) was compared with L-moments through Monte Carlo simulation based on the streamflow data of northern Peninsular Malaysia. The result shows that, for some cases, the use of TL-moments (1,0) is a better option as compared to L-moments in modelling those series. Citation Ahmad, U.N., Shabri, A. & Zakaria, Z.A. (2011) Trimmed L-moments (1,0) for the generalized Pareto distribution. Hydrol.Sci. J. 56(6), 1053–1060.

Investigation and remediation of a storm-damaged Pacific port

A new open cut mine was to be established in the Philippines in 2006, and an integral part of this operation was an onshore revetment and outloading wharf. Owing to the limited mine life of only 7 years, risks were accepted by the designers and the owners by designing for a lower return-period typhoon event, resulting in a code-compliant but reduced robustness revetment structure being installed. Not long after completion of the revetment and outloading wharf, two typhoons passed close by the site. The second one, in December 2006, was a ‘super typhoon’, causing extensive damage to the site as well as in many other areas. A site visit was arranged for the authors in late December 2006 to assess the damage and propose rectification and strengthening measures. It is important in designing structures for a limited design life that the risks associated with reducing the design return periods are recognised as being very real and the concept may lead to false economy. In this case, a little more expenditure in the construction of the revetment may have limited the damage from the typhoon to only minor, and saved considerably more in rebuilding costs.

Forest impact on floods due to extreme rainfall and snowmelt in four Latin American environments 1: Field data analysis

Summary Flood peak data for focus catchments in Costa Rica, Ecuador, Chile and Argentina are analyzed to test the hypothesis that, as the size of the hydrological event increases, the effect of forest cover on the peak discharge becomes less important. Previous research suggests that this hypothesis may hold for small catchments (less than 1 km2) but the pattern is less clear for large catchments. The principal study results are for small paired catchments (0.6–10 km2) with different forest covers (forest/pasture) in highland Ecuador and a small (0.35 km2) plantation catchment in southern Chile subjected to logging. The former were analyzed by comparing the corresponding peak discharges for given rainfall events, the latter by comparing the relationships between peak discharge and rainfall event size for the pre- and post-logging periods. In all cases there is relative or absolute convergence of the responses as discharge increases, with convergence likely for flood return periods of around 10 years. More limited data for larger catchments which have undergone either deforestation or afforestation (131 km2 in Costa Rica and 94–1545 km2 in Chile) suggest that the percentage change in forest cover must exceed 20–30% to provoke a measurable response in peak discharge; convergence of peak discharge response at high flows (return periods of around 5 years) for the different forest covers may then be observed. For a 12.9-km2 snowmelt-affected catchment in Tierra del Fuego, Argentina, extreme floods require rain-on-snow events but the data are not sufficient to quantify the complex relationship between forest cover, event return period and peak discharge. In general, forest cover is unlikely to reduce, significantly, peak discharges generated by extreme rainfall but may still offer substantial mitigation benefits for moderate (i.e. more frequent) rainfall events.

TL-moments and L-moments Estimation of the Generalized Logistic Distribution

The generalized logistic (GLO) distribution has been used widely in extreme value event evaluation and also popularin hydrological risk analysis. In estimating the high return period events, censoring the data from below might be advantageoussince the small floods are less significant to large ones, so the used of small floods can sometimes be onlya nuisance value. In this paper the method of trimmed L-moments with one smallest value were trimmed (TLMOM1)was introduced as an alternative ways in estimating the flood for higher return period. TLMOM1 has an ability to reduceundesirable influence of small sample might have compared to former TL-moments (TLMOM) and L-moments (LMOM)method. The main objective of this study is to derive the TLMOM1 for GLO distribution. The performance of TLMOM1was compared with LMOM and TLMOM through Monte Carlo simulation and stream flows data over station in Terengganu,Malaysia. The result shows that in certain cases, TLMOM1 is a better option as compared to LMOM and TLMOMin modelling those series.

Return period calculation and passive structure design at the Taconnaz avalanche path, France

AbstractThis paper aims to show how recent knowledge developed in the field of avalanche research can be used for a real case study, the Taconnaz avalanche path, where passive structures already existed but had to be improved. First a morphological analysis of the site is done and historical data are analysed. Second, each recorded event is back-calculated using a numerical model of dense-flow avalanches. For each surveyed avalanche, parameters at the entry of the runout zone upstream of the defence structures are defined. Third, a statistical analysis of these parameters allows characterization of 100 year return period events. Fourth, physical and numerical models of dense avalanches interacting with defence structures are combined in order to design the most effective passive structure able to contain the reference scenarios. Finally, physical and numerical modelling of the interaction between the powder avalanche and the designed defence structure is performed, to show that the proposed improvements do not increase the residual risk due to the powder part in areas downstream of the defence structures.

Investigation on the Impact of Seasonally Frozen Soil on Seismic Response of Bridge Columns

This paper presents the development of numerical models that investigated the seismic response of a simple two span prototype bridge system during warm and frozen temperatures. Models from both temperature conditions were subjected to a range of seismic intensities to examine the effect of seasonal freezing on the response of the system. Stiffness characteristics were defined using cyclic models of a bridge pier that were previously developed and validated using results from an experimental program on identical full-scale column-foundation units, which were tested during the summer and winter months. Dynamic characteristics of the seismic models were defined using approaches found in the literature. Frozen conditions increased the maximum bending moment and shear force demands for all seismic intensities, with nonlinearity in the column/foundation reducing the difference between the peak responses at higher intensities. At the depth of maximum foundation shear for the frozen model, demand was three times higher than the unfrozen for the 500-year return period and twice during the 2,500-year event. This is significant as one will assume shear is not critical at this location if the effects of frozen conditions are ignored. Apart from the smallest intensity event, increased peak lateral displacements were developed by the warm model down the length of the column and foundation. However, the displacement demand to capacity ratio was higher at the column top for the frozen model, exceeding the capacity during the 2,500-year return period event.

LH-Moments of Some Distributions Useful in Hydrology

It is already known from the previous study that flood seems to have heavier tail. Therefore, to make prediction of future extreme label, some agreement of tail behavior of extreme data is highly required. The LH-moments estimation method, the generalized form of L-moments is an useful method of characterizing the upper part of the distribution. LH-moments are based on linear combination of higher order statistics. In this study, we have formulated LH-moments of five distributions useful in hydrology such as, two types of three parameter kappa distributions, beta-<TEX>${\kappa}$</TEX> distribution, beta-p distribution and a generalized Gumbel distribution. Using LH-moments reduces the undue influences that small sample may have on the estimation of large return period events.

Collapse Modelling of Soft-Storey Buildings

This paper presents results from an extensive study investigating the seismic performance of soft-storey buildings. Such buildings rely on the moment and axial action of slender columns to resist horizontal and gravity forces at the ground floor level, and are banned in high seismic regions due to their poor performance in past earthquakes, but are a common feature of buildings in lower seismicity regions such as Australia and many countries in southeast Asia. A summary of the analytical studies and laboratory testing undertaken on limited ductile columns is presented and demonstrates that the displacement limits specified in existing international design guidelines are very conservative. Seismic studies undertaken using displacement principles, as opposed to the conventional force-based principles, indicated that the seismic performance of many of these buildings was satisfactory for the 500 and 1500 year return period events under typical Australian conditions.

Bayesian optimal design of an avalanche dam using a multivariate numerical avalanche model

For snow avalanches, passive defense structures are generally designed by considering high return period events. However, defining a return period turns out to be tricky as soon as different variables are simultaneously considered. This problem can be overcome by maximizing the expected economic benefit of the defense structure, but purely stochastic approaches are not possible for paths with a complex geometry in the runout zone. Therefore, in this paper, we include a multivariate numerical avalanche propagation model within a Bayesian decisional framework. The influence of a vertical dam on an avalanche flow is quantified in terms of local energy dissipation with a simple semi-empirical relation. Costs corresponding to dam construction and the damage to a building situated in the runout zone are roughly evaluated for each dam height–hazard value pair, with damage intensity depending on avalanche velocity. Special attention is given to the poor local information to be taken into account for the decision. Using a case study from the French avalanche database, the Bayesian optimal dam height is shown to be more pessimistic than the classical optimal height because of the increasing effect of parameter uncertainty. It also appears that the lack of local information is especially critical for a building exposed to the most extreme events only. The residual hazard after dam construction is analyzed and the sensitivity to the different modelling assumptions is evaluated. Finally, possible further developments of the approach are discussed.

Optimal design under uncertainty of a passive defense structure against snow avalanches: from a general Bayesian framework to a simple analytical model

Abstract. For snow avalanches, passive defense structures are generally designed by considering high return period events. In this paper, taking inspiration from other natural hazards, an alternative method based on the maximization of the economic benefit of the defense structure is proposed. A general Bayesian framework is described first. Special attention is given to the problem of taking the poor local information into account in the decision-making process. Therefore, simplifying assumptions are made. The avalanche hazard is represented by a Peak Over Threshold (POT) model. The influence of the dam is quantified in terms of runout distance reduction with a simple relation derived from small-scale experiments using granular media. The costs corresponding to dam construction and the damage to the element at risk are roughly evaluated for each dam height-hazard value pair, with damage evaluation corresponding to the maximal expected loss. Both the classical and the Bayesian risk functions can then be computed analytically. The results are illustrated with a case study from the French avalanche database. A sensitivity analysis is performed and modelling assumptions are discussed in addition to possible further developments.

Application of safety and security principles to flood event management in highly populated urban areas

This paper refers to non-structural actions which are to be carried out on the Arno river basin (Italy). In particular the town of Florence is considered where 56 catastrophic flood events have been recorded in the last 1000 years, the latter in 1966 with damages estimated at 10,000 billion euros. A huge system of structural works is presently being carried out planned to the 200-year return period event in the next ten years. To manage the present and future residual risk, specific safety plans have been provided at the scale of single buildings in order to give residents an effective instrument to prevent and protect them from the major flooding risk. This paper illustrates how safety and security principles can be applied to the management of a flood event at the scale of several thousands of square kilometres. A specific Security Plan and, if needed, a Recovery Plan is linked to each building which is potentially subject to flooding. Based on analytical hazard assessment and mapping, techniques to improve or increase the safety-level as well as appropriated information are described. These local scale plans are interfaced with civil protection and disaster management plans at the regional scale by suitable procedures.

Analysis of a 30-year rainfall record (1967–1997) in semi–arid SE Spain for implications on vegetation

In order to understand the behaviour of ecosystems in semi-arid areas, rainfall must be analysed over time. For this reason, statistical methods were applied to a rainfall time-series (1967–1997) in a typical Mediterranean semi-arid area in SE Spain of great ecological interest. Annual, seasonal and monthly time scales were studied, including rainfall volume, number of rain-days and one-day maximum rainfalls. Results showed neither trends nor abrupt changes in the series, although three periods, averaging 301, 183 and 266 mm year−1respectively were observed from fluctuation in rainfall. Modal values of annual and monthly rainfalls were lower than average. Inter-annual variability was 36% and intra-annual variability up to 207%. Although there was often a rainfall maximum in autumn and a minimum in July, the only certainty was a summer drought, which marking strong annual cycles. The estimated return periods for events of more than 50, 70 and 100 mm day−1were over 5, 11 and 30 years respectively; the absolute maximum 1-day rainfall recorded was 98 mm. Results suggest that vegetation is not only adapted to the amount of precipitation, but also to its timing. All types of rainfall, in terms of volume and timing, would have consequences for vegetation.

Hydrologic processes and peak discharge response to forest removal, regrowth, and roads in 10 small experimental basins, Western Cascades, Oregon

The magnitude, seasonality, and duration of peak discharge responses to forest removal and regrowth and roads in 10 pairs of experimental basins in the western Cascade Range of Oregon are consistent with fundamental water balance and routing concepts in hydrology. Hypothesized effects of forestry treatments on evapotranspiration, cloud water interception, snowpack dynamics, and subsurface flow interception vary predictably by season, geographic setting, amount of forest canopy removal, stage of canopy regrowth, and arrangement of roads in the basin. Posttreatment responses of selected subpopulations of matched peak discharge events were examined over 10‐ to 34‐year posttreatment periods in treated‐control basin pairs in a range of geographic settings. Changes in evapotranspiration associated with forest canopy removal and regrowth apparently accounted for significant increases (31–116%) in peak discharges during the first postharvest decade in 8 of 10 treated basins, but the events that were affected were small (&lt;0.22‐ or 0.28‐year return periods) and occurred in the fall (September–November), when soils are in moisture deficit, rather than in spring (March–May), when soils are in moisture surplus. For a given amount of forest canopy removal, initial increases in small, fall events were greater in drier basins than wetter basins, and increases tended to disappear as forest canopies regrew. Changes in cloud water interception apparently offset changes in evapotranspiration in two partially cut basins. Changes in snowpack dynamics apparently accounted for significant increases (25–31%) in winter rain‐on‐snow events, but other types of winter events did not change, in four of five basins at the H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest. Changes in subsurface flow interception apparently accounted for significant increases (13–36%) in large (&gt;1‐year return period) events in seven of eight basins with roads, and, controlling for geographic location, the magnitude of increases was related to the density of midslope roads.