Retaliatory Measures Research Articles

Новые тенденции в развитии мировой экономики

After the crisis of 2008–2009, dynamics and structural characteristics of the global economy experienced profound changes. Instead of shifting to a ‘New Normal’ of any kind, it presented both developed and developing economies with a set of strategic options involving technological, institutional, and economic policy trade-offs. Most resourceand technology-related ‘forks in the road’ are relatively growth-friendly, as the choice among the available strategic alternatives can rely on efficiency-maximizing economic calculus (although in some cases, as with the labor-saving technological change, social costs can be rather sensitive). This applies also to the dynamics of institutional change, with different economic and social institutions having proved their compatibility with positive GDP growth. On the contrary, economic policy trade-offs are much more challenging, as efficiency-improving policy reforms often bring opposition by vested interests and/or electoral risks. As for global economic governance, these risks are complemented with nationalist temptations inviting political decision makers to sacrifice global norms for country-specific benefits. In this sense, recent trends in global trade are especially warning, as proliferation of trade barriers can further reduce growth in global trade and downgrade the role of export demand as the engine of global development. Thus far, both markets and most experts considered new US protectionist initiatives as elements of the bargaining strategy used by the Trump administration, which will more likely result in concessions by the affected country partners rather than in retaliatory measures. However, the scenario of full-fledged trade wars should not be ruled out. The history of the global economy presents numerous cases when political ambitions and conflicting trading interests generate outcomes leaving all the parties worse off. Preventing the collapse of the existing regimes and institutions of global economic governance appears one of the key factors responsible for keeping growth rates of global GDP above 3 per cent in short- and medium-run perspective.&nbsp

Trump Administration Expresses Strong Disapproval of the International Criminal Court

On September 10, 2018, U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton delivered an address fiercely criticizing the International Criminal Court (ICC). Bolton challenged the legitimacy of the ICC and expressed particular concern over its inquiry into potential war crimes committed by members of the U.S. military and intelligence agencies in Afghanistan. He identified retaliatory measures the United States would undertake if the ICC “comes after us, Israel or other U.S. allies.”

The Economic Evaluation of China-US Trade Frictions

The United States after President Trump taking office shows a strong intention of trade protectionism. It launched the 301 investigation” on China and threatened to impose extra 25% penalty tariffs on Chinese products. Unwilling to show weakness, China also announced to take retaliatory measures. As two great trade powers in the world, trade conflicts between the United States and China will inevitably strike the existing trade system and drag down the global economic growth. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze economic impacts of trade frictions on both two countries and fluctuation effects on other countries to explore the degree of distortion that caused by trade frictions to the international trade system. What kind of losses will trade sanctions of the United States bring to China and what will be the effect of China’s countermeasures are problems that are highly attended by decision-makers and need to be solved urgently. With a Global Trade Analysis Project （GTAP） and the latest database GTAP 9.0, this paper quantitatively sets six kinds of policy scenarios according to the degree of seriousness of trade frictions, and simulates variations of macro-economic indexes of main countries from perspectives of real GDP, residents’ welfare and import and export trade to discuss the impacts of different trade conflicts on every industry in China. The main conclusions of the paper are: （1） judging from real GDP, residents’ welfare and import and export trade, Sino-US trade friction is a lose-lose situation to both countries while China will suffer more losses; （2） China taking trade countermeasures towards the United States will deteriorate the trade conditions of the United States and cause great decline of its export to China; affected by such influence, residents’ welfare in the United States will become worse and economic growth will be slowed down, which will also bring a second-time damage to China; （3） Sino-US trade frictions may benefit other countries at the cost of their benefits; there may be economic growth and welfare improvement in varying degrees in other countries; （4） trade frictions will bring significant trade transfer effects, that is, direct trade between China and the United States will be reduced greatly while indirect trade between them will be significantly increased; （5） trade sanctions of the United States cannot fundamentally solve the trade imbalance problem of the United States; its trade deficits with other countries will still increase even though these with China will be reduced. The marginal contributions of this paper can be elaborated from three aspects. Firstly, this paper quantitatively evaluates international economic effects of Sino-US trade frictions, calculates specific impacts of different trade sanctions of the United States on China, and estimates implementation effects of different countermeasures of China. Research results are of great significance for China taking proper measures to tackle potential threats of trade frictions. Secondly, this paper analyzes overflow effects of Sino-US trade frictions from the perspective of trade transfer, and estimates potentials of China and the United States for indirect trade through third countries after trade frictions. The findings are helpful for China to strengthen international cooperation so that negative impacts of trade sanctions can be reduced. Thirdly, this paper estimates the impacts of trade frictions on different industries in China, which is helpful for China to find out industries with serious damages as soon as possible and enact effective industrial protection measures.

Legal Defense of Foreign Citizens and Non-Citizens’ Economic Rights and Interests from Criminal Offense and Other Incidents

The paper analyzes issues of defense of foreign citizens’ and apatrides’ economic rights and interests from criminal offense and wrongful acts within the Russian Federation. Due to situation of political strain, fueled by refugee crisis, obviously national legal system faces new challenges in maintaining human values within its borders.The key idea of the paper is a legal capacity to renege from providing the non-citizens of national equality, addressing the lex personalis i.e., the law of the alien’s home country for meaningful rights and interests’ defense.The certainty is based on the fact that the legislation of alien’s home country could not always correspond with the Russian one and it could not be read as a decline in alien’s legal status.Even a superficial view reveals lots of theoretical and enforcement issues ranging from providing equal defense from criminal or administrative offence to defense from maladministration. Despite the distinctions in national legal systems, common European trend is aimed at highest possible defense of non-citizens’ and apatrides’ economic interests.Thus, Russian legal system admits feasible aliens’ adjective law limitations as a retaliatory measure for Russian citizens’ rights limitation abroad. Authors push for balancing both personal and public interests when determining the legal defense of economic interests of non-citizens in accordance with European practice.

The Global Evolution of Travel Visa Regimes.

The Global Evolution of Travel Visa Regimes.

Withdrawal of Saudi trainees exposes vulnerability of Canadian health care

On Aug. 3, 2018, a diplomatic row erupted between Saudi Arabia and Canada following a human rights–related tweet by Canada’s minister of foreign affairs. Among several retaliatory measures, Saudi Arabia announced the discontinuation of scholarships to and imminent relocation of about 16 000

미중 무역전쟁 연구 : 트럼프정부의 보호무역정책 요인분석을 중심으로

As China is strongly resisting the Trump administration`s unprecedented retaliatory trade policy toward China, the trade conflict between the two countries goes beyond the level of trade conflict and deteriorated into a `trade war`. Why has the Trump administration initiated a trade war by imposing a large tariff on China? Why has China strongly resisted against the pressure and demand of the U.S., not like Japan did in the past? To what extent does the trade war between the U.S. and China develop and ultimately turn into a protectionist international trade order? The study results showed that the US-China trade disputes resulted from both the United States` protective trade policy and China`s strong retaliatory measures toward each other were more than just aimed at creating a favorable trade balance. It was confirmed that the trade war between the U.S. and China showed signs of economic power competition, technological competition and production competition as part of the hegemony competition. In other words, the trade war between the U.S. and China is a competition to secure superior economic power, which is the condition of the hegemonic power, as the hegemonic stabilization approach argued. The declining U.S. has pushed for a mercantilist trade policy to protect its industries and increase exports in order to regain its dominant economic power, on the other side, China has to secure control over capital, market and technology in order to emerge as a hegemonic power.

ТЕНДЕНЦИИ ИМПОРТОЗАМЕЩЕНИЯ В РОССИИ И В ЕЕ ОТДЕЛЬНЫХ РЕГИОНАХ

Цель: провести анализ внешней торговли отдельных регионов Центрально-Черноземного района в период реализации политики импортозамещения с целью определения целесообразности и эффективности ее проведения. Обсуждение: Вопрос импортозамещения стал наиболее остро в 2014 году, когда против России были введены экономические санкции со стороны западных стран. С нашей стороны последовали вынужденные ответные меры в виде запретов на ввоз некоторых товаров на территорию страны. В связи с этим актуализировалась необходимость исследования социальных и экономических последствий этих мер, преимуществ и рисков, возможностей и угроз как для отдельных регионов, так и для России в целом. Проведен сравнительный анализ показателей экспорта, импорта, коэффициентов международной конкурентоспособности Белгородской и Курской областей. Рассмотрены преимущества и недостатки в реализуемых программах импортозамещения в данных регионах. Результаты: рассматриваемые регионы воз многом сходный по отраслевой структуре экономики, уровню обеспеченности основнымий составляющими регионального экономического потенциала, составу из структуре территориальных активов. В Курской и Белгородской областях прослеживается одинаковая тенденция снижения импортной зависимости продовольственных товаров и сельскохозяйственного сырья, что отражает наличие положительных результатов в проводимой политике импортозамещения в этой отрасли. Однакоп проведенный анализ показывает существованиеж в экономическом развитии исследуемыхц областей определенных различий, характеризующихся, во частности, объемом из динамикой ВРП во целом и на душу населения, а так же товарной структурой экспорта из импорта. Это свидетельствует об разном уровневый эффективности использования региональных активов, т.е. об разном уровневый капитализации экономики данных регионов, а также об необходимости применения специфических методов реализациий политики импортозамещения.

Economic sanctions: content, goals, motives, efficiency

The article is devoted to the development of the theory of economic sanctions in the modern world. In the present study, the analysis of the economic substance of the sanctions is conducted. Goals and motives for imposing sanctions are selected. The authors systematized the types and forms of economic sanctions used in today’s global world economy. The features of contemporary escalation of the sanctions war of the West against the Russian economy are considered. An attempt to assess the economic effectiveness of sanctions and retaliatory measures is made. Detections and consequences for the countries-initiators of the sanctions and countries under pressure are identified.

World Economic Prospects Monthly

Overview: Outlook bright despite fears of protectionism ▀ President Trump's decision to impose tariffs on some steel and aluminium imports has increased the downside risk of a surge in protectionist measures. But for now, our view is that the direct impact of the US move will be small. Our global GDP growth forecasts for 2018 is unchanged at 3.2% while we have nudged up 2019 from 2.9% to 3.0%. ▀ Available data suggest that the healthy pace of world GDP growth in Q4 has been maintained into Q1. The global composite PMI rose again in February, to its highest level in almost three and a half years. And in the first two months of the year, Chinese import growth remained solid, suggesting that, for now, it is still an important support for world trade. Although our advanced economy leading indicator has fallen back a touch since the turn of the year, it remains consistent with robust growth. ▀ Another plus is that the recent equity market sell‐off has not yet morphed into a fullblown correction. As with other ‘tantrums’ over recent years, we do not expect this to have any notable spill‐overs for growth. ▀ But the bigger concern is now the potential for a sharp increase in economic protectionism. While the imposition of tariffs on some US steel and aluminium imports will have repercussions for foreign producers and worsen US cost competitiveness, the sector is too small to have major knock‐on implications for global growth. The main worry is if this triggers retaliation that spins into a damaging trade war. Although this downside risk has grown, in our view it remains a tail risk. Neither the US nor its trading partners will benefit from a raft of tariffs being imposed. And the political gains for Trump may prove illusory if retaliatory measures disproportionately affect US regions where he and the Republican party are politically vulnerable. ▀ In all, our baseline view remains little changed and we still see another year of healthy GDP growth. Although downside risks to the outlook have risen since the start of the year, they are still lower than two or three years ago.

Donald Trump’s Protectionist Trade Policy from the Perspective of Economic Nationalism

This article aims to analyze American trade policy under Donald Trump’s administration. President Trump has imposed a se t of tariffs and quotas for such imported agriculture and manufactured products. Such trade policies triggered many American trading partners, most notably China and NAFTA members, to take any retaliatory measures, starting trade war. Preliminary observation on this issue starts with two problematization. First, Trump’s trade policies failed to push his trade partners for their trade compliances despite of their higher relative export dependency on American market rather than on the contrary. Second, most of Trump’s “trade belligerents” are democratic countries; it is another anomaly for established assumption about democratic peace theory which has stated that structures and norms held by democratic countries prevent them to engage conflictual relations in both political-security and economy. Further research has found that competitive trade structure US Government faced at some traded commodities put American trade interests at stake against other conflicting countries. In order to protect such interest, President Trump must deliver restrictive measures—tariffs and quotas—in favor of domestic industries and market. Such behavior is justified by both President Trump’s view and tenet about the construction of American nation and his political mobilization of popular far-right mass which also contribute to the discourse of contemporary American nationalism. The result is American economic nationalism which drives domestic political configuration to support President Trump’s political economic initiatives.

ROLE OF THE ROMAN CATHOLIC CLERGY OF THE NORTHWESTERN KRAI OF THE RUSSIAN EMPIRE IN THE 1863 POLISH UPRISING

The article considers the problems of forming the religious component of the Polish uprising in 1863 in the Northwestern Krai of the Russian Empire. The author analyzes the peculiarities of the relationship between the Roman Catholic clergy and its laity in the process of the religious mobilization of the participants in the uprising. The article reveals the methods of influence of the radically-minded clergy on the consciousness and political behavior of the laity. There is shown that the spiritual power of the Roman Catholic clergy was used to achieve the political goals of the liberation of Poland. There is established the relationship between the religious motivation of the participants in the uprising and the brutality towards the law-abiding population in various forms of insurgent terror and violence. The author comes to the conclusion that radically-minded Roman Catholic priests and monks managed to turn the church doctrine into a mobilizing ideology of the armed struggle. Religious legitimization, propaganda and organization of the armed uprising turned a part of the Roman Catholic clergy of the Northwestern Krai into a political enemy of the Russian Empire. The article deals with the retaliatory measures of punishment applied to the rebellious representatives of the clergy on the part of the administration of M.N. Muravyov, which were caused by the conditions of martial law, the necessity to protect the territorial integrity of the state, to protect the lives and property of law-abiding citizens. In this regard, the Russian government, army, society and the Orthodox population of Lithuania and Belarus perceived the uprising as an attempt on the part of the Polish separatists on the ancestral Russian territory. Therefore, for the Russian side, the goals of the armed struggle were not the return of the Polish land, but the morally justified protection of the Russian land and the Russian people living in the West who had the same faith. In this regard, the author comes to the conclusion that in the process of preparing and carrying out the uprising, some of the Roman Catholic clergy of the Northwestern Kraiacted as a political enemy of the Russian Empire.

ASEAN FDI (Factors Influencing ASEAN FDI and the Policy Implications)

Korean Abstract: 본 연구는 아세안 FDI 특징과 비즈니스 여건을 살펴본 후 그 결정요인을 실증적으로 분석함으로써 한아세안 경제협력을 보다 심화시키기 위한 정책적 시사점을 도출하는 데 그 목적이 있다. 본 연구에서는 실증분석을 통해 아세안 FDI 유입 결정요인을 분석하여 그 결과를 제시하였으며, 한국의 대아세안 FDI 활성화를 통한 상호 호혜적 경제성장동력 창출의 측면에서 우리 기업과 한국정부에 시사점을 제시하였다. 본 보고서는 향후 우리 정부의 통상정책과 아세안 지역의 경제협력 정책수립에 큰 기여를 할 수 있을 것으로 판단되며, 아울러 우리 기업의 투자 및 진출전략 수립에도 큰 키여를 할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. English Abstract: Since the global economic crisis triggered in the United States in 2008, the East Asian economic region has received particular attention as it achieved relatively solid economic growth compared to developed countries, which struggled with recession. The discussion on economic cooperation and economic liberalization within East Asia has mainly focused on the RCEP, with this discussion being led by ASEAN as it calls for ASEAN centrality. ASEAN is currently the second-largest overseas investment destination and second-largest trading partner for South Korea, making it an important partner in economic cooperation for South Korea. Particularly, as China is openly implementing economic retaliatory measures against South Korea for the deployment of THAAD missiles in the nation, South Korea has become more interested in the ASEAN market as it strives to diversify its trade and investment portfolio. Under this background, this research examines the characteristics of ASEAN FDI by income level and doing business conditions, then conducts an empirical analysis of determination factors to draw policy implications for stronger economic cooperation with ASEAN. This report consists of five chapters in total. In Chapter 2 we examine FDI determination factors which have been discussed from a theoretical and empirical viewpoint in the field of international economics. In Chapter 3 we look into the current situation of ASEAN FDI and the characteristics of ASEAN FDI by income level, along with conditions for doing business in the region. In Chapter 4, we conduct an empirical analysis of the determination factors for ASEAN FDI inflow, utilizing a covariance structure analysis. Lastly, in Chapter 5, we suggest implications for the Korean government and enterprises to generate mutually beneficial economic growth momentum by promoting Korea’s FDI to ASEAN.

The internationalization of production and the politics of compliance in WTO disputes

In this paper we seek to advance the debate on the conditions under which the WTO Dispute Settlement Body can bring about trade-liberalizing policy change in WTO members. Under what conditions do WTO members change domestic policies or measures that are challenged in WTO litigation? Starting from the assumption that policymakers are political-support maximizers who seek to avoid the mobilization of political enemies, we argue that the degree of integration in Global Value Chains (GVCs) of the economic sectors affected by a WTO dispute influences members’ propensity to change domestic policies when targeted in WTO litigation. The initiation of a WTO dispute against sectors highly integrated in GVCs engenders the emergence of a domestic coalition of pro-trade liberalization groups composed of exporters seeking to avoid the imposition of retaliatory measures and import-dependent firms wishing to exploit the opportunity to access cheaper imports. Under these circumstances, trade-liberalizing responses to WTO legal challenges are therefore more likely. We test this hypothesis by estimating a Cox proportional hazard model and find that GVCs positively impact states’ propensity to comply with the WTO dispute settlement panel rulings.

The Effect of Food Sanctions on Prices in Russia in 2014-2016

In H2 2014, Russia introduced a food embargo against a number of countries as a retaliatory measure to economic, technological and financial sanctions. Limitation of imports of goods to Russia led to growth in prices on foreign goods and their domestic analogs, as well as changes in the consumer goods basket. According to our estimates, as a result of the food embargo prices on goods under sanctions (delivered from countries against which the food embargo was not imposed) rose on average by 3.0%, while prices on sanctions-free goods, generally by 2.9%.

Warring from the virtual to the real: Assessing the public’s threshold for war over cyber security

Accusations of Russian hacking in the 2016 US presidential election has raised the salience of cyber security among the American public. However, there are still a number of unanswered questions about the circumstances under which particular policy responses are warranted in response to a cyber-attack and the public’s attitudes about the conditions that justify this range of responses. This research investigates the attributes of a cyber-attack that affect public support for retaliation. It finds that cyber-attacks that produce American casualties dramatically increase support for retaliatory airstrikes compared to attacks with economic consequences. Assessments of attribution that have bipartisan support increase support to a lesser extent but for a broader range of retaliatory measures. The findings have important implications for ongoing debates about cyber security policy.

Hrvatski nastavni jezik i dvojezično školstvo gradišćanskih Hrvata u Austriji počevši od godine 1921.

U članku se analiziraju mogućnosti hrvatske i dvojezične nastave kod gradišćanskih Hrvata tijekom 20. stoljeća, te se rasvjetljava uloga hrvatskoga nastavnog jezika koja se mijenjala u skladu s dotičnom političkom i društvenom situacijom koja je određivala i krojila školsku politiku a u vezi s time i školskojezičnu politiku. Tako zapravo ne možemo govoriti o uređenju školstva za pripadnike hrvatske manjine do prije deset godina. Provedena istraživanja dokazuju da se dvojezično školstvo u Gradišću od 1921., od godine pripojenja Austriji pa sve do 1994. godine nalazilo u stanovitom vakuumu, budući da je Manjinski školski zakon (Minderheiten-Schulgesetz 1994.) bio donesen tek 73 (!) godine nakon pripojenja Gradišća Austriji. Zbog toga se i broj dvojezičnih škola konačno smanjio za trećinu. U doba predraća i poraća nije bilo (gotovo) nikakvih perspektiva koje bi podupirale jezični te kulturni pluralizam i hrvatski nastavni jezik bio je sve više marginaliziran. Tako primjerice nikada nije bila stvarno postignuta jezična ravnopravnost njemačkog i hrvatskog nastavnog jezika, nego je ona općenito bila sprječavana temeljem zakonskih, financijskih a prije svega jezično-političkih okolnosti, što je pospješilo jezičnu mijenu.

Факторы, влияющие на торговые результаты споров в рамках ВТО

This author empirically considers how disputes in the WTO affect trade flows of disputed goods from complainant countries to the defendant ones. The empirical analysis based on the 141 trade disputes in the WTO over the 1995-2010 period, shows that complainant's power with respect to its possibility to adopt retaliatory measures is the important determinant of trade flows changings. A complaining country, which is an important market for the defending export, achieves ceteris paribus a better result in terms of import trade flows of disputed goods, if a complaining country wins a dispute.

Соотношение федерального и провинциального законодательства Канады в области защиты детей от домашнего насилия

The article deals with the issues of the delineation of authority between Federal legislative bodies and legislative bodies of the provinces and territories in the sphere of child protection from the domestic violence. The author analyzes the area of competence of the legislative bodies of mentioned levels, paying particular attention to their complementarity and possible conflicts between rules. In accordance with the Constitution of Canada the Federal, provincial and territorial governments have a shared responsibility for many aspects concerning the situation of children in society. However, criminalization of some unlawful acts, including the act of domestic violence, is an exclusive scope of jurisdiction of Federal agencies. On the basis of the analysis of the amendments to the criminal code of Canada the author comes to the conclusion that the Federal government is moving towards stricter sanctions for crimes related to domestic violence that target children. On the basis of detailed analysis of normative legal acts of the provinces and territories regulating social relations in the sphere of combating domestic violence and child protection the author concludes that the provincial laws on protection against domestic violence are intended to support and complement the Federal measures to protect victims of domestic violence under the criminal code of Canada. In general, provinces and territories have extensive regulatory framework in this area that allows to pursue a consistent policy aimed at improving the retaliatory measures against domestic violence, when the victims are children, as well as the maximum leveling of the consequences of such acts.

A Close Look at the U.S. Steel Industry: Protective Tariffs and Their Effect on the Economies of East Asia

The U.S. steel industry has a long history of being protected, first when it was an infant industry in 1791 and later as it became a mature industry and needed breathing room to allow it to restructure so that it could compete against more efficient foreign producers. In recent years the steel industry has resorted to antidumping laws to ward off foreign competition. In the first quarter of 2002, President Bush imposed tariffs of up to 30 percent on foreign steel producers in many countries, including those in East Asia. This tariff, which was the result of a finding that some foreign steel companies had dumped their steel on the American market, may be the first shot in what might become a trade war. A number of countries have filed protests with the WTO seeking compensation for the tariff and some countries have already taken retaliatory measures. These recent trade actions have a ripple effect throughout the East Asian countries, including Korea, and the world. For example, if the United States market becomes closed to the steel companies in the EU, those steel companies will have to try to sell more steel within the EU at a time when Chinese, Korean and Japanese steel companies will also be trying to penetrate the EU market to make up for lost American sales. This paper will explore some of these issues, with an emphasis on the effects that steel protectionism in the United States will have on their industries and their economies. A different version of this paper was first published in 2002 and was reprinted in 2009. The present version includes a bibliography on trade, including links to more than 100 studies on trade.