Retail Turnover Research Articles

Household debt as a determinant of retail and personal consumption – the case of Croatia

The main goal of this paper is to determine the main characteristics and determinants of retail trade in Croatia over the last 20 years, and to analyse its retail turnover in comparison with other EU countries, especially during the last economic crisis. Using a regression model, the paper econometrically tests the hypothesis that the speed of the post-crisis recovery in retail turnover can be explained by the debt levels accumulated in the pre-crisis period. The results of the analysis indicate the negative correlation between variables, which means that the countries that had the lowest levels of accumulated private debt, on average experienced the fastest recovery of retail turnover in the post-crisis period, and vice versa. The weaker correlation has been found in case of retail sales of food, beverages and tobacco products, which leads us to the conclusion that its consumption was not mainly financed by borrowing and, also, that its recovery does not depend primarily on the level of household debt. The analysis for the non-food sector indicated a very high dependence of this type of consumption on household debt, which remains one of the main impediments to its recovery.

Development direction substantiation of Ukrainian retail enterprices in crisis conditions

The directions of intensive development of retail in Ukraine are discussed in the article. The tendencies of wholesale and retail trade in Ukraine through the analysis of trade turnover indices and specialization of retail network are investigated. The influence of various factors on the dynamics of the index of retail turnover in Ukraine, including the consumer price index and average wages, is determined using multivariable regressionThe structure of retail trade in Ukraine by organizational forms is analyzed. The existence of tendency to reduce the number of retail outlets with its consolidation is determined. It is identified that the main way of Ukrainian retailers is extensive way. Use of concepts of relationship marketing, logistics and category management is proposed for implement of intensive development of domestic retail intermediaries and increase their effectiveness .The importance of effective management by supply chain of retailers is grounded. The research results can be used by managers as major retailers and owners of small retail stores.

Stochastic trends and seasonality in economic time series: new evidence from Bayesian stochastic model specification search

An important issue in modelling economic time series is whether key unobserved components representing trends, seasonality and calendar components, are deterministic or evolutive. We address it by applying a recently proposed Bayesian variable selection methodology to an encompassing linear mixed model that features, along with deterministic effects, additional random explanatory variables that account for the evolution of the underlying level, slope, seasonality and trading days. Variable selection is performed by estimating the posterior model probabilities using a suitable Gibbs sampling scheme. The paper conducts an extensive empirical application on a large and representative set of monthly time series concerning industrial production and retail turnover. We find strong support for the presence of stochastic trends in the series, either in the form of a time-varying level, or, less frequently, of a stochastic slope, or both. Seasonality is a more stable component, although in at least 60 % of the cases we were able to select one or more stochastic trigonometric cycles. Most frequently the time variation is found in correspondence with the fundamental and the first harmonic cycles. An interesting and intuitively plausible finding is that the probability of estimating time-varying components increases with the sample size available. However, even for very large sample sizes we were unable to find stochastically varying calendar effects.

Does the Box–Cox transformation help in forecasting macroeconomic time series?

The paper investigates whether transforming a time series leads to an improvement in forecasting accuracy. The class of transformations that is considered is the Box–Cox power transformation, which applies to series measured on a ratio scale. We propose a nonparametric approach for estimating the optimal transformation parameter based on the frequency domain estimation of the prediction error variance, and also conduct an extensive recursive forecast experiment on a large set of seasonal monthly macroeconomic time series related to industrial production and retail turnover. In about a fifth of the series considered, the Box–Cox transformation produces forecasts which are significantly better than the untransformed data at the one-step-ahead horizon; in most cases, the logarithmic transformation is the relevant one. As the forecast horizon increases, the evidence in favour of a transformation becomes less strong. Typically, the naive predictor that just reverses the transformation leads to a lower mean square error than the optimal predictor at short forecast lead times. We also discuss whether the preliminary in-sample frequency domain assessment conducted here provides reliable guidance as to which series should be transformed in order to improve the predictive performance significantly.

Security and Trustworthiness as Drivers of E-shop Competitiveness (Opinions of Young Customers)

Although the overall share of B2C e-commerce on the total retail turnover in the Czech Re- public is low, e-shopping still indicates quite impressive year-to-year growth rates. Though very popular - especially in certain customer segments, such as young people - there are serious problems and challenges observed in this domain. Problems and challenges such as security and trustworthiness issues are often discussed and scrutinized. Thus, it is very important for both e-retailers and researchers to find out which factors drive e-shops' competitiveness. In the introductory part, this paper presents useful and clear definitions to enlighten and clarify the topic. The description of Czech B2C e-commerce market follows, and it emphasizes the issues of ethics, security and trustworthiness and problems customers often face. Results of empirical research focused on issues on security and trustworthiness in relation to e-shop competitiveness are then presented and discussed. Suggestions for future research form the final part of the article.

Priority Guidelines Of The Service Sphere Development In Uzbekistan

The present research article is devoted to study the priorities of service sphere development in Uzbekistan. The comparative analysis of service sphere development during 1996-2009 were presented, survey of disperse territories, analysis and generalization methods used to identify trends in services sphere. Disperse markets were grouped into markets with high, medium and low development level. Retail trade is identified one of the most important components of service sphere in Uzbekistan. Retail turnover figures were predicted until 2013 used retrospective data for forecasting. Linear trend - trends of increase or decrease of index, visual analysis of time series dynamics(graphic presentation) were used to solve the studied problem. Main priorities and targets in service sphere in Uzbekistan and it’s role in economy were determined.

Incomes and consumption of the russian population during the crisis and alternatives to the government policies in this sphere

The paper discusses the dynamics of income and consumption of the Russian population in the 2000s, factors of accelerated growth, and the most important changes in the structure of retail turnover within this period. The shifts in the structure of income use and the dynamics of turnover under the effect of the crisis that began in 2008 are analyzed. Forecast estimates for 2009 are presented. Suggestions are formulated for prior anticrisis measures and government policy in the consumption sector.

The effect of smoke-free policies on revenue in bars in Tasmania, Australia

Objective:To examine the impact of smoke-free policies on revenue in Tasmanian bars.Method:Monthly sales turnover from January 2002 to March 2007, provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics was analysed. There...

Shrinkage, shoplifting and the cost of retail crime in Europe: a cross‐sectional analysis of major retailers in 16 European countries

A self‐report questionnaire was used to discover key shrinkage, theft and loss prevention data from 476 major European retailers (23 per cent of West Europe's retail turnover) in 16 countries for the financial year 2001‐2002. The response rate was 33 per cent. Shrinkage rates were found to vary considerably between countries with a weighted average of 1.45 per cent (1.42 per cent in 2000/2001), equivalent to €30,310 million (or $27,582 million). A total of 18.3 per cent of shrinkage was perceived to be caused by “internal error” rather than crime and this estimate is deducted from shrinkage to derive the crime figure. Retail crime cost retailers €30,407 million ($27,670 million). In contrast to US data, customer theft was seen as the most important crime cost, followed by employee theft, security costs and supplier theft. Stores apprehended more than 1.2 million thieves in 2001/2002, but passed only 25.7 per cent to the police.

Post‐war Russian economic growth: not a riddle—a reply

Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Notes He alleges that I misrepresent Soviet growth potential by suggesting it should be less than America's instead of the higher rates displayed by some market economies like Spain, Greece and Ireland closer to the USSR's stage of development. Had he adopted his preferred standard which increases the plausibility of high‐end Soviet growth rates, the USSR's collapse would be all the more inexplicable. Axioms are statements accepted as true as the basis for argument or inference. They are supposed to be stronger than assumptions because of their self‐evidency, but are only so if appearances are not deceptive. Bergson did not actually publish the requisite growth series until Bergson (1961 Bergson Abram The Real National Income of Soviet Russia since 1928 (Cambridge, MA, Harvard University Press, 1961) [Google Scholar]), and therefore necessarily based his conclusions on official data and the analyses of others like Jasny (1951 Jasny Naum The Soviet Economy During the Plan Era (Stanford, Stanford UP, 1951) [Google Scholar]), Gerschenkron (1953 Gerschenkron Alexander ‘Notes on the Rate of Soviet Industrial Growth’ (‘Notes sur le taux de croissance actuel de l'industrie sovietique’) October–December 1953 reprinted in Alexander Gerschenkron Economic Backwardness in Historical Perspective (Cambridge, Harvard UP, 1962) pp. 254–269 [Google Scholar]) and Hodgman (1954 Hodgman Donald Soviet Industrial Production, 1928–1951 (Cambridge, MA, Harvard UP, 1954) [Google Scholar]). Gerschenkron (1947 Gerschenkron Alexander ‘The Soviet Indices of Industrial Production’ Review of Economic Statistics November 1947 [Crossref] , [Google Scholar], 1953 Gerschenkron Alexander ‘Notes on the Rate of Soviet Industrial Growth’ (‘Notes sur le taux de croissance actuel de l'industrie sovietique’) October–December 1953 reprinted in Alexander Gerschenkron Economic Backwardness in Historical Perspective (Cambridge, Harvard UP, 1962) pp. 254–269 [Google Scholar] and 1955 Gerschenkron Alexander ‘A Dollar Index of Output, 1927/28 to 1937’ Review of Economics and Statistics May 1955 reprinted in Gerschenkron, Economic Backwardness in Historical Perspective pp. 235–253 [Google Scholar]) reached the same conclusion but was more sceptical about all aspects of Soviet data, including their meaningfulness. Bergson's leap of faith, drawing strong conclusions from incomplete evidence, repeated his tenacious earlier defence of the reliability and usability of Soviet statistics on equally inconclusive grounds. Bergson had indeed prejudged matters in 1953 because the requisite growth series were not computed until 1961. Bergson's tenacity on this point stems from his perception that the comparative merit of his estimates of Soviet national income turned on adjusted factor costing. ‘… I in fact made it a major concern to explore the problem posed by the divergencies of Soviet ruble prices from “scarcity values” and because of such divergencies I was led to reject the usual expedient in national income measurement, which is simply to value goods and services produced in terms of prices actually prevailing in the country in question. Instead I applied an “adjusted ruble” standard of valuation, attempting to correct ruble prices for major distortions. In the calculation of a complex aggregate, such as national income, valuation in terms of some standard is, of course, unavoidable’ (Bergson, 1966 Bergson Abram ‘Socialist Calculation: A Further Word’ in Abram Bergson Essays in Normative Economics (Cambridge MA, Belknap divison of Harvard University Press, 1966a) pp. 237–42 [Google Scholar]b). This assessment is wrong in two respects. First, the elimination of retail turnover taxes is standard SNA practice. Second, substituting capital charges for official profit does not transform Soviet fiat prices into measures of enterprise marginal rates of transformation.

Applications: An Easter Proximity Effect: Modelling and Adjustment

The timing of Easter Sunday varies from one year to the next and can affect time series data. To reveal the underlying movement of a time series, the date of Easter's occurrence and its impact on the time series have to be taken into account. New approaches are developed to model and remove the impact of Easter. The monthly Australian Total Retail Turnover series is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the modelling approaches.

An Opportunity Cost Approach to Valuation of the River in a City Center Retail Environment

These days many cities in Japan are confronted with the problem of decline of city center retail environment due to motorization and location of large shopping centers at suburban area. This problem aroused the awareness that the loss of city center retail environment (CCRE) means the loss of the prerequisite of subsistence of city. Thus many cities have launched redevelopment projects to revitalize their CCRE. With this in mind, we already have proposed an evaluative framework for assessing the spatial structure of CCRE based on consumers' shop-around behaviors. Furthermore, a frequency-based shop-around Markov model was constructed to forecast how redevelopment projects at CCRE would change consumers' shop-around patterns and what changes in retail sales would follow.On the other hand, evaluating public projects in terms of money has been attracting serious concerns recently. This is required from harnessing exploding public investments, consciousness with environmental consequences of public projects, and so on. Thus much discussion has been made on valuation methods of environmental resources such as CVM (contingent valuation method), travel cost method, user benefit method, hedonic approach etc.While CCRE revitalization projects often accompanies improvement of natural environments such as parks and rivers, few research has been carried out to evaluate them in terms of money. In this paper, we aim to extend the above Markov model to valuation of the natural environment such as river at CCRE. More specifically, the purpose of this paper is to propose an opportunity cost method for valuation of natural resources at CCRE based on consumers' shop-around behavior with its actual application to the Murasaki River at CCRE of Kitakyushu City.At the CCRE of Kitakyushu City, the Murasaki River flows from south to north dividing the CCRE into east and west. Apparently, the existence of the Murasaki River decreases consumers' shop-around between east and west so that retail turnover at each side decreases. Using the above model, we have estimated the total annual amount of the decrease of retail turnovers, which is the loss of sales that would have been obtained if it were not the Murasaki River. Thus it is the opportunity cost retailers are paying annually. To change the viewpoint, this can be regarded as willingness-to-pay that retailers are willing to spend every year for leaving the Murasaki River as it is. Hence if it is discounted, we can obtain the asset value of the Murasaki River. This paper has done this.

An Empirical Investigation of the Relationship between Retail Sales Force Performance Appraisals, Performance and Turnover

The perfonnance of a retailer’s sales force has obvious implications for the finn’s profitability. Less obvious, but still significant, is the impact of sales force turnover on the retailer’s level of success. The fact that both sales force perfonnance and turnover can have significant implications has resulted in numerous studies attempting to identify causal relationships between perfonnance, turnover, and various salesperson characteristics and behavior. This study examines the relationship between perfonnance appraisals, a common managerial practice, and retail salesperson perfonnance and turnover. An evaluation of the relationship between perfonnance appraisals and salesperson productivity and turnover seems logical, since perfonnance appraisals are a regular portion of the management control process in many fInns. The responses provided by 185 retail salespeople and their managers leads to the conclusion that “properly” conducted perfonnance appraisals can have positive impacts on both sales force perfonnance and turnover.

Out of sight, out of mind? Licensed clubs in remote Aboriginal communities

AbstractMost Aboriginal communities in the Northern Territory have used provisions under the NT Liquor Act to impose total or partial bans on alcohol and only eight (as of 30 June 1995) had established licensed clubs. This article examines (a) patterns of alcohol consumption in communities with clubs, and (b) economic, social and political aspects of the place of clubs in these communities. Alcohol consumption was estimated on the basis of ‘purchase into store’ figures for 1994-95 provided by the NT Liquor Commission. Among male drinkers, consumption of absolute alcohol in 1994-95 was estimated at 42.5 litres a head, 76% higher than the figure for the NT as a whole, which in turn was 42% above the national level. Similar differences were found for female drinkers. Combined retail turnover of the seven clubs that traded throughout the year was estimated at $8.1 million. It is argued that many clubs are able to use their monopolistic control of a valued resource to become powerful political institutions in communities, sometimes leaving non-drinkers effectively disenfranchised. It is also argued that the health consequences of these high consumption levels have received far less attention than the effects of Aboriginal public drunkenness in urban areas. It is concluded that, while the rights of Aboriginal communities to establish community-controlled clubs should be respected, the notion that they are under some sort of obligation to do so should be exposed as a measure likely to add to the health burdens of people already inadequately served by health, education and other services.

The Gaps in Retail Human Resource Management:

Human resource management is a critical determinant of retail organizational performance and profitability. It is estimated that the retail turnover currently is costing the industry $7.7 billion. If the current trends continue in constant dollars, this figure will be $9.2 billion in the year 2010. In current dollars this estimate will go up to $16.02 billion. Good human resource management can reduce this amount significantly. Despite its importance, retail human resource management remains a largely neglected area. Buildings on a basic model of the human resource management process, this paper provides a brief review of key personell issues, followed by a suggested research agenda. It is maintained that human resource management in the retailing sector has many major gaps. Eliminating these gaps by improving the overall human resource management activity in retailing will yield total quality management (TQM) in retailing and will enhance the retail competitive advantage. Additionally, there will be significant contribution to the overall performance of the total marketing channel.

Turnover rents: comparative valuation issues

Turnover rents have become an accepted part of the retail property market, particularly in managed shopping centres, airports, motorway service stations and railway stations. Relates to their use for managed shopping centres. Their relative merits have been a source of debate among retailers and property professionals. However, the issue of valuation methodology for retail properties let on turnover leases has not been discussed. Examines the types of turnover lease in the UK and their investment characteristics. The limitations and problems of current valuation approaches are explored. The property market where retail turnover leases are most common ‐ the USA ‐ is also examined in order to assess whether any lessons can be learned. Concludes that turnover leases in the UK are likely to produce complex and varying income flows. Moreover, the usefulness of current valuation techniques will be limited, owing to a lack of comparables and the inherent inflexibility of the techniques themselves.

Pedestrian Flows and Retail Turnover

This feasibility study originated from a request from a high‐quality confectionery manufacturer and retailer for research into the possibility of assessing the interaction of multiple outlets in the same town. The particular problem was that of estimating pedestrian flow patterns so that the siting of new outlets would not attract business away from existing outlets of the same company. Various methods of collecting pedestrian data were reviewed, and for reasons of cost and practicality it was decided to concentrate on tracking (105 city‐centre trips) and point‐counting methods. Time‐lapse photography was used for point counting, being the only method capable of handling the volume of pedestrians (7,267). A number of computer programs were written which allowed the photographic data to be transformed into a network flow model. A full‐scale test of the model was made using data collected by Nottingham City Council for a network of 57 links.

Retail THEFT

Most people connected with the retail industry are now well aware that huge sums of money are lost to shop theft, euphemistically covered by the term “shrinkage”, each year. Government reports and articles (eg Bamfield 1988, Burrows 1988) have put forward various estimates of the extent of these losses. The general consensus is that shrinkage accounts for between 1% and 2% of retail turnover each year. But what exactly does this mean? Who is responsible for these losses? Where and why do they occur? And what can retailers do to reduce their losses? These are some of the questions which a recent report, commissioned by Halfords and carried out by Alan Elder of the Institute of Retail Studies, attempted to answer.

Marketing in UK retailing

In the first of two RDM articles Dr Nigel Piercy discusses the position of marketing in retail firms in the UK. This article examines the findings of a recent survey of the marketing organisation and strategies of some 70 major retailers in the UK, covering some 15% of total retail turnover. The second article will focus specifically on the types of Marketing Department operated by major UK retailers and the implications for the strategic relationship with manufacturers; this article discusses the more general findings of the survey.

A Comparative Analysis of the Domestic Retailing Systems of Canada and Sweden

This article relates the structural developments of retail systems in Sweden and Canada to the comparative distribution and retailing literature. The two countries have similar types of market and marketing system development. The emergence of strong consumer markets has brought about corresponding structural changes in the distribution systems of both countries. Similarities and differences in the retailing systems of the two countries are examined systematically in relation to demographic, socioeconomic, and cultural factors of the environment. The differences in the retail systems indicate that each country's retail industry is at a different stage of development. Canada has higher total retail turnover (retail turnover as percentage of personal expenditures) and a higher total number of retail stores, but Sweden has higher per capita sales and per store retail turnover, and a larger population per store. These comparisons pinpoint the nature and structure of the prevailing Swedish and Canadian consumer markets and the emerging retail distribution systems of the future. The study also offers certain important policy implications to both marketing practitioners and marketing scholars with regards to the workings of retail systems in multiple environments.