Radial Growth Response Research Articles

The radial increment of European ash (Fraxinus excelsior L.) under climate change, Ukraine

The aim of the study was to compare the response of the radial increment of European ash (Fraxinus excelsior L.) in the Western and Eastern forest steppe of Ukraine to climate change. The growth-climate relationships were estimated for 1961–1987 and 1988–2014 in Western and Eastern parts of the forest steppe. The results indicate that the sensitivity of the ash radial increment in stands of the Western and Eastern forest steppe to climate variations in the second period (1988–2014) was increased compared to the first period (1961–1987). In the second period correlation analysis and response function showed a negative effect of summer droughts on the ash radial increment for both stands. Also a negative effect of winter precipitation on tree rings of ash trees in the Western forest steppe during the second period was detected. The radial growth response to climate change showed an increase in the response of European ash radial growth to climate change, which was confirmed for European ash for both stands in the Western and Eastern forest steppe.

Radial growth response of Pinus yunnanensis to rising temperature and drought stress on the Yunnan Plateau, southwestern China

The relative influence of energy and water availability on tree growth at specific sites under warming conditions remains insufficiently understood on the Yunnan Plateau, which obstructs the rational selection and development of forest management measures in the context of climate change. In this study, a dendroecological investigation was conducted in four sites on the Yunnan Plateau to evaluate growth trends and climate responses of Pinus yunnanensis under warming and drought stress across cold-dry (CD), warm-humid (WH), warm (WR), and hot-dry (HD) zones. The effects of energy and water availability on the radial growth of P. yunnanensis varied in different sites and showed site-specific characteristics. The radial growth of P. yunnanensis in the CD zone benefited from rising temperatures, especially in the pre-growing season and core growing season. However the radial growth of P. yunnanensis in the WH zone was restricted by excess water in the core growing season. The radial growth of P. yunnanensis in the WR and HD zones became increasingly limited by temperature and drought stress, and the growth switched from responding to energy stress to moisture stress. The sensitivity of P. yunnanensis to climate factors in the warm-humid zone and humid seasons was relatively stable; in contrast, this species was vulnerable to warming and drought stress under harsh growth conditions and showed considerable instability. Intense warming in the future may cause a significant variation of tree growth response to climate. It would trigger a noticeable redistribution effect of energy and water availability on forest growth, which motivates assessments of climate-growth relationships, not only at large spatial scales, but also in specific sites. This research provides a basis for the adoption of effective forest management measures for specific sites according to their response characteristics associated with the distribution of climate drivers.

Tree growth responses and resilience after the 1950-Zayu-Medog earthquake, southeast Tibetan Plateau

Understanding how severe disturbances affect forest dynamics is fundamental in ecology, conservation and management. Earthquakes of large magnitude severely impact mountain landscapes, causing strong disturbances on forests. However, it is unknown how the resilience of tree growth after strong earthquakes changes as a function of site factors as elevation. Herein, we investigated the radial-growth responses of surviving trees after the 1950-Zayu-Medog MW 8.6 earthquake which devastated the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. We reconstructed radial growth dynamics of Abies delavayi var. motuoensis after 1950 in six sites selected along an elevational transect located in the Medog valley. Post-earthquake growth responses were detected among 60% of sampled trees in the period 1950–1955, but these responses varied depending on site elevation. Trees at the alpine treeline were less disturbed compared to those located at mid and low elevations. Severe growth suppressions, including the formation of missing rings, occurred during the first three years after the earthquake, and were stronger at low elevations. Growth releases mostly occurred after 1954. Long-term growth release, lasting more than ten years, was mainly observed at low elevations, near talus fans prone to landslides and rock falls. Growth rates returned to pre-earthquake values 45 years after the earthquake occurrence. Our results evidence how tectonic influences on tree growth depend on local factors as elevation, and demonstrate that tree resilience after severe geo-hazards is contingent on site conditions.

Drought legacies are short, prevail in dry conifer forests and depend on growth variability

Abstract The negative impacts of drought on forest growth and productivity last for several years generating legacies, although the factors that determine why such legacies vary across sites and tree species remain unclear. We used an extensive network of tree‐ring width (RWI, ring‐width index) records of 16 tree species from 567 forests, and high‐resolution climate and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) datasets across Spain during the common period 1982‒2008 to test the hypothesis that climate conditions and growth features modulate legacy effects of drought on forests. Legacy effects of drought were calculated as the differences between detrended‐only RWI and NDVI series (i.e. after removing long‐term growth trends) and pre‐whitened RWI and NDVI series predicted by a model including drought intensity. Superposed Epoch Analysis (SEA) was used to estimate whether legacy effects differed from random. Finally, legacy effects were related to water balance, growth persistence and variability, and tree species identity. We found a widespread occurrence of drought legacy effects on both RWI and NDVI, but they were seldom significant. According to SEA, first‐year drought legacies were negative and different from random in 9% and 5% of the RWI and NDVI series respectively. The number of significant second‐ and third‐year legacies was substantially lower. Differences between RWI and NDVI legacies indicate that canopy greenness and radial growth responses to drought are decoupled. We found variations in legacies between tree species with gymnosperms presenting larger first‐year drought legacies than angiosperms, which were exposed to less severe droughts. Greater growth variability can explain the presence of first‐year RWI legacies in gymnosperms from dry sites despite that the relationship between growth variability and legacies was complex. Synthesis. Accounting for species and site responses to drought provides a better understanding of the magnitude and duration of drought legacies on forest growth and productivity. Despite the widespread occurrence of growth reductions in the years during and after drought occurrence, significant legacies were not very common, mostly lasted one year, and were more widespread in gymnosperms. These are relevant factors to be considered in the future when studying the consequences of drought on forest productivity and tree growth.

Radial growth response of Pinus tabulaeformis to temperature during the growth season in southeastern Gansu, China

ABSTRACT Tree-ring chronologies of Pinus tabulaeformis from three sampling sites in southeastern Gansu Province in China and growth-related parameters calculated from daily average temperatures were utilized to explore the response features of tree radial growth to onset and cessation date, duration and accumulated temperature. The results indicated that the three chronologies exhibited a significantly positive correlation with the temperature (12°C) of the onset date (p<0.05), which is consistent with the initial threshold temperature that occurred in May based on radial growth monitoring nearby. The tree-ring chronology from the Taihe Mountains located in a relatively more arid area had a significantly negative correlation with cessation dates in late September with temperatures of 12.5-13.5°C (p<0.05). The threshold associated with the duration and accumulated temperature in the two chronologies from the Taihe and Xiaolong Mountains occurred at 12°C (p<0.01). Significantly negative correlations were found between the chronology from the Guiqing Mountains and accumulated temperature from 5°C to 15°C (p<0.05). Soil moisture stress caused by increasing temperatures and accumulated temperatures during the main growing season from May to September is the main limiting factor for the radial growth of trees. Our results are consistent with findings based on monthly climate data and tree-ring width indexes, indicating that the current research is reliable and effective.

Which oak provenances for the 22nd century in Western Europe?Dendroclimatology in common gardens.

The current distribution area of the two sympatric oaks Quercus petraea and Q. robur covers most of temperate Western Europe. Depending on their geographic location, populations of these trees are exposed to different climate constraints, to which they are adapted. Comparing the performances of trees from contrasting populations provides the insight into their expected resilience to future climate change required for forest management. In this study, the descendants of 24 Q. petraea and two Q. robur provenances selected from sites throughout Europe were grown for 20 years in three common gardens with contrasting climates. The 2420 sampled trees allowed the assessments of the relationship between radial growth and climate. An analysis of 15-year chronologies of ring widths, with different combinations of climate variables, revealed different response patterns between provenances and between common gardens. As expected, provenances originating from sites with wet summers displayed the strongest responses to summer drought, particularly in the driest common garden. All provenances displayed positive significant relationships between the temperature of the previous winter and radial growth when grown in the common garden experiencing the mildest winter temperatures. Only eastern provenances from continental cold climates also clearly expressed this limitation of growth by cold winter temperatures in the other two common gardens. However, ecological distance, calculated on the basis of differences in climate between the site of origin and the common garden, was not clearly related to the radial growth responses of the provenances. This suggests that the gradient of genetic variability among the selected provenances was not strictly structured according to climate gradients. Based on these results, we provide guidelines for forest managers for the assisted migration of Quercus petraea and Q. robur provenances.

How do social status and tree architecture influence radial growth, wood density and drought response in spontaneously established oak forests?

During the past decades, a multitude of oak stands have spontaneously established across the pine-dominated landscapes of the French Landes de Gascogne. Yet their future performance under modern climate change is unknown. We show that coppiced, dominant trees are most prepared to cope with drought episodes, displaying higher basal area increment and lower sensitivity to extreme events. Forest stands dominated by pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) have spontaneously established across the pine-dominated landscapes of the French Landes de Gascogne. These oak stands are typically unmanaged and unsystematically coppiced, resulting in mixtures of single- and multi-stemmed (coppiced) trees. To determine the ability of spontaneous oak forest stands to face climate change–related hazards, by analysing differences in growth (tree-ring width and basal area increment—BAI), wood density and climate sensitivity depending on their tree architecture (single- vs multi-stemmed trees) and their social status in the forest. We exhaustively cored 15 oak stands (n = 657 trees). We compared stand characteristics and climate sensitivity between tree architectures considering two sampling designs, either all sampled trees (the exhaustive sampling) or those with a dominant status (dominant sampling). At the tree level, we used linear mixed effects models to compare wood density and growth between tree architectures and the trees’ social status within the canopy layer (dominant- vs non-dominant trees). Multi-stemmed trees exhibited higher wood density than single-stemmed trees for diameters > 30 cm. Dominant multi-stemmed trees showed lower sensitivity to extreme events (pointer years), higher BAI but lower annual growth rates than dominant single-stemmed trees. Dominant multi-stemmed trees are potentially the most prepared ones to cope with increasing soil water deficit following drought episodes, at least during the first 60 years of the life of the tree. The vulnerability to face harsher climate conditions for Q. robur stands can be misled when using a dominant sampling design.

Long-term thinning effects on tree growth, drought response and water use efficiency at two Aleppo pine plantations in Spain

In Mediterranean areas where drought-induced forest dieback and tree mortality have been widely reported, it is still under debate how the likely risks of climate change will affect tree growth and consequently forest productivity. Increasing tree mortality has been associated not only to increased drought, but also to a lack of management in many dense pine forests and plantations, where warming may intensify tree-to-tree competition for soil water. This emphasizes the need of using silviculture to adapt dense stands of Mediterranean pine reforestations to warmer and drier conditions. Here we combined dendrochronology and C and O isotope analyses of wood in two Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis) plantations, growing under semiarid conditions and experimentally thinned at high and moderate intensities along with control. The main aim was to understand the responses of radial growth and water use efficiency (WUEi) to different thinning intensities, and to analyze the effectiveness of thinning to enhance post-drought growth resilience. Thinning had a positive effect on growth, produced an increase of δ18O, reduced growth sensitivity to drought and decreased WUEi, suggesting a reduction of drought stress. These results were consistent across sites, and were significant even 20 years after the intervention took place. Considering the climate effects on growth through the SPEI drought index to calculate resistance and recovery indices, an increase of resistance after thinning was observed. We conclude that high thinning intensity (50% of basal area removed) is a useful silviculture intervention on Mediterranean Aleppo pine plantations that enhances their growth, and makes them less dependent on harsh climatic conditions, improving their resilience against drought and consequently making them better adapted to more unfavourable conditions.

Radial Growth Adaptability to Drought in Different Age Groups of Picea schrenkiana Fisch. &amp; C.A. Mey in the Tianshan Mountains of Northwestern China

Forest ecosystems are strongly impacted by extreme climate, and the age effects of radial growth under drought can provide profound understanding of the adaptation strategy of a tree species to climate change. Schrenk spruce (Picea schrenkiana Fisch. &amp; C.A. Mey) trees of three age groups (young, middle-aged, and old) were collected to establish the tree-ring width chronologies in the eastern Tianshan Mountains of northwestern China. Meanwhile, we analyzed and compared the response and resistance disparities of radial growth to drought in trees of different age groups. The results showed that (1) drought stress caused by increasing temperatures was the main factor limiting the radial growth of Schrenk spruce, (2) the old and young trees were more susceptible to drought stress than the middle-aged trees, as suggested by the responses of Schrenk spruce trees and based on the SPEI (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index), and (3) the difference of the resistance indexes (resistance, recovery, resilience, and relative resilience) of three age groups to drought supported that the resistance values were in the order middle age &gt; young age &gt; old age, but the recovery, resilience, and relative resilience values were in the order old age &gt; young age &gt; middle age. These results will provide a basis for the ecological restoration and scientific management of dominant coniferous tree species of different age groups in the sub-alpine forest ecosystems of the arid regions under climate change scenarios.

Interannual radial growth sensitivity to climatic variations and extreme events in mixed-species and pure forest stands of silver fir and European beech in the Italian Peninsula

Climate change is increasingly favouring the occurrence of extreme weather events, affecting species distribution and tree growth. It has been proposed that mixed forests are more resistant to drought spells and heat waves than corresponding monocultures. We sampled tree cores in nine plots along a latitudinal gradient of the Italian Peninsula (Trentino, Molise and Calabria). The objective of the study was to identify radial growth responses in mixed-species and pure plots of European beech and silver fir to climate dynamics and extreme events. Pointer years, as well as correlation and response functions, were used to analyse the climate–growth relationships in mixed-species and pure plots. Climate–growth relationships showed differences between mixed-species and pure plots only at the regional level. In particular, Trentino differed from Molise and Calabria, when considering maximum temperatures. In Trentino, winter (for silver fir) and summer (for both species) temperatures had a less negative impact on the radial growth of trees, in comparison with Molise and Calabria. Nevertheless, correlations between the radial growth and drought indices, and the principal component analysis, showed that plots were relatively unresponsive to summer drought. These results can be important for the implementation of operational techniques that increase the adaptation of silver fir and European beech to climate change, as well as for assisted migration.

Реакція радіального приросту Pinus sylvestris L. на зміну клімату в насадженнях Лівобережного Лісостепу

Досліджено особливості реакції радіального приросту сосни звичайної (Pinus sylvestris L.) на зміну клімату в середньовіковому чистому сосновому насадженні Лівобережного Лісостепу. Використано стандартні дендрохронологічні методики. Виявлено роки мінімального приросту: 1975, 1987 та 2013, що обумовлено високими середньорічними температурами 1975 та 2013 рр. і низькими зимовими температурами 1987 р. Роки максимального приросту (1944, 1957, 1978 та 2004.) відзначалися оптимальним співвідношенням тепла й вологи. Виявлено взаємозв’язки між радіальним приростом сосни й опадами та температурами за два періоди – 1960–1992 та 1985–2017 рр. У другому періоді дерева стали більш чутливими до погодних стрес-чинників унаслідок потепління, про що свідчать результати кореляційного аналізу та функції відгуку. Збільшилася кількість значущих зв’язків між радіальним приростом і кліматичними чинниками в другому періоді внаслідок ослаблення насадження, викликаного зміною клімату. Посилився негативний вплив температур попереднього року та вегетаційного періоду поточного року на радіальний приріст сосни.

Radial growth response of major conifers to climate change on Haba Snow Mountain, Southwestern China

Climate change has an inevitable impact on forest ecosystems, to better understand the influence of climate change on forest growth, we analyzed the growth response of four major conifers to climate on Haba Snow Mountain in central Hengduan Mountains. Tree ring samples were taken from four species at their upper distributional limits, and residual chronologies were developed by using tree ring width data. Response function and redundancy analysis were taken to reveal the key climatic factors affecting tree growth and moving interval analysis was applied to detect the stability of growth-climate relationships. The results showed that previous November temperature, precipitation in current February, current May and current June were common factors affecting the radial growth of the studied species. Abies georgei was mainly influenced by the temperature in previous November. The photothermal condition in May and June controlled the growth of Larix potaninii. Moisture condition in previous August and current May was the key factor affecting Pinus densata growth. As for Pinus yunnanensis, the drought in current May was the limiting factor influencing its growth. The dynamic relationship between tree growth and climatic factors varied among species, and the results were consistent with response function analysis. A forecast in future forest growth on Haba Snow Mountain was complex, since future climate change had both positive and negative effects on the radial growth of four major conifers.

Spatially heterogeneous responses of tree radial growth to recent El Niño southern-oscillation variability across East Asia subtropical forests

A greater amplitude and higher mean intensity of the El Niño phenomenon have both been observed in the last few decades. In order to determine how tree growth and recent El Niño variabilities are associated within the East Asia subtropical forest (EASF), we conducted a dendroecological study using a network of 25 zonal tree-ring width chronologies from Pinus massoniana Lamb. trees distributed across extensive latitudinal (23 to 33°N) and elevational (77 to 1285 m) gradients in EASF. Using principal component analysis (PCA), bootstrapped correlations, spatial correlations, and mediation analysis, the associations among interannual tree radial growth (over the period of 1987 to 2015), El Niño variability, and the climate variables were tested. Our study indicates that the radial growth of P. massoniana is generally stimulated by climate anomalies (warmer/sunnier spring and fall and lower water deficit from winter to summer) positively associated with NINO3.4 index. Moreover, the results also demonstrate that the positive radial growth response to El Niño is significantly strengthened from south to north in the EASF, which could be attributed to tree growth benefiting more from the El Niño-related water deficit release and October sunshine increase in northern habitats, which are traditionally colder and drier than the south.

Radial growth response of two oaks to climate at their disparate distribution limits in semiarid areas, Beijing, China

AbstractImpending climate warming is expected to influence plant growth and distribution, and the distribution range limit of tree species is extremely sensitive to climate change. However, synchronous comparisons of responses of different tree species with overlapping ecological niches to climate at their distribution range limit in the same region have received little attention. In the present study, we assessed the discrepancy in radial growth responses of two dominant oak species to climate at their distribution range limit (southern range limit forQuercus mongolica, northern range limit forQuercus variabilis) in Beijing, China. Furthermore, growth–climate relationships were examined using linear mixed‐effects models, and growth trends up to the year 2100 were forecast based on future climate scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Our results indicated that there were no significant differences in the growth response to climate betweenQ. variabilisat its northern limit andQ. mongolicaat its southern limit, and the growth of the two tree species was positively correlated with the minimum temperature and negatively correlated with the climatic moisture deficit of autumn. However, the growth response to climate variables varied at different sites. Additionally, the model forecast showed an increase in radial growth ofQ. variabilisat its northern limit andQ. mongolicaat its southern limit up to the end of the present century.

Climate responses of ring widths and radial growth phenology of Betula ermanii, Fagus crenata and Quercus crispula in a cool temperate forest in central Japan

Climate responses of radial growth of major hardwood species growing in a cool temperate forest in Japan were clarified by dendrochronological analysis combining the phenology observation of radial growth. To better understand which climate factors limit the radial growth of major hardwood species growing in a cool temperate forest in Japan, we clarified the phenology of radial growth and developed ring width residual chronologies for Betula ermanii, Fagus crenata and Quercus crispula at Takayama, an LTER research site located in central Japan. We inspected stem tissue for division of cambial cells in the early stage of wood formation and examined the cumulative radial growth by the wounding method. The onset of cambial cell division in Q. crispula was observed to be about 2 weeks earlier than in the other species. Wood formation in the final part of the tree ring occurred approximately 1 month earlier in B. ermanii than in the other species. The correlation analysis was performed between chronologies and moving averages of 31-day climate data with a 1-day lag. The periods which revealed significant correlations with climate factors were categorized into the previous growing season, previous autumn, just before the current growing season and current growing season according to their characteristic responses and the phenology of wood formation and leaves. The negative correlations between ring width of all the species and mean and minimum temperatures of previous year’s autumn, when the growth ending of ring width and leaf coloring occurred, suggested that temperature may have affected the respiration rate and/or prolonged the start of leaf fall, resulting in variations of radial growth through the consumption of photosynthetic products. On the other hand, different responses to climate were observed among species during the other phenological periods.

祁连山中部祁连圆柏年内径向生长对气候因子的响应

祁连山中部祁连圆柏年内径向生长对气候因子的响应

Diverse responses of radial growth to climate across the southern part of the Asian boreal forests in northeast China

In the context of rapid warming, a better understanding of the spatially varying growth-climate responses of widely-distributed forests is essential for predicting the warming effects on trees, so as to guide the forest management. Here, we characterized the growth-climate relationships of the southern part of Asian boreal forests in northeast China at multiple levels to deduce how warming impacts tree growth. Specially, we aimed to distinguish climatic limitations to growth and clarify how local climate determines the response pattern. We established a tree-ring network, which includes 516 trees from 20 populations across the study area. We then correlated regional, population, and tree chronologies with climate data. In the north of the study area, radial growth responded positively to temperature before the growing season and precipitation during the growing season. In contrast, growth in the south responded positively to precipitation and negatively to temperature during the growing season. Thus, diverse growth patterns exist in response to climate. The extent to which growth was limited by climate varied along the latitudinal climate gradient. The north parts were limited by both frost and moisture, whereas the central-south parts were limited by moisture deficit induced by high temperature. The growth-climate response was quantified as the percentage of significant tree-level correlations. Through associating this quantitative index of each population with local climate, we confirmed the decisive role of local temperature in forming the spatial heterogeneity of response. We also confirmed that warming negatively affected tree growth across the study area. Our models predict that as warming continues, the trees threatened by high temperature in summer will increase by 45.5%–63.6% by the end of this century. All these findings warn of growth declines in Asian boreal forests, and suggest the need for urgent efficient regionally-specific measures to sustain the forest productivity in this region.

Qinghai spruce (Picea crassifolia) and Chinese pine (Pinus tabuliformis) show high vulnerability and similar resilience to early-growing-season drought in the Helan Mountains, China

Abstract Understanding the mechanisms for how tree growth responds to drought is important for forest conservation and management in semi-arid regions, particularly under ongoing climate change. However, most previous studies have been relied on linear statistical analysis, unsupported by insights into tree physiological processes. In this study, we applied process-based Vaganov–Shashkin (VS) model to investigate the stem radial growth response and resilience of Qinghai spruce (Picea crassifolia) and Chinese pine (Pinus tabuliformis) to intense drought in semi-arid region of China from 1960 to 2013. Correlation analysis indicated that soil moisture availability in the early growing season (May to July) significantly limit stem growth for both tree species, but Chinese pine was affected more strongly by drought legacies. The model results validated our statistical modeling results, and quantified the effects of temperature and soil moisture on the intra-seasonal variation of the relative stem radial growth rate. The influence of soil moisture on the relative stem radial growth rate during the early growing season was significantly higher for positive pointer years (years with greater than mean growth) than for negative pointer years (years with less than mean growth) for both tree species. Interestingly, the two species displayed similar patterns of growth resilience in response to drought. Based on our successful application of the VS model, our results provide important insights into the two main tree species in the semi-arid Helan Mountains, and offer a new perspective on tree growth processes and their varying responses and resilience to drought.

Age- and region-related response of radial growth to climate warming and a warming hiatus

For trees in the east from 1980 to 2001 and after 2001 and trees in the west from 1980 to 2001, younger trees responded to precipitation and older trees responded to temperature more strongly. Global warming has now persisted for more than 100 years, but an unusual pause in this rising temperature began in the 2000s, at least for the climate of China. This shift presents an unusual opportunity to investigate possible differences in the radial growth of trees during a climate warming period (1980–2001) and the warming hiatus (after 2001) for different age groups under different moisture conditions. We sampled a total of 304 tree-ring cores of Picea crassifolia in the eastern and western Qilian Mountains, which were divided into four age groups for study. The results indicate that trees of the young group and half-mature group in the wetter eastern region showed insignificant growth trend, while all trees in the drier west showed significant growth reduction related to climate warming. Radial growth of trees in the east showed weak correlation with precipitation, and that in the west positively correlated with precipitation from the previous August–September and current May–June from 1980 to 2001. In contrast, trees in the east positively correlated with precipitation from the previous August–September and current July, and those in the west positively correlated with precipitation from the current April–May during the temperature pause after 2001. Trees in the east showed negative correlation with temperature in the winter dormancy period, and those in the west negatively correlated with temperature from the previous July, November and the current June from 1980 to 2001. Trees in both the east and west showed weak correlations with temperature after 2001. Older trees (> 150 years old) showed a weaker response to precipitation than the younger trees (< 150 years old). In the east, older trees responded to temperature more weakly during the period of climate warming; while in the west, older trees responded to temperature more strongly. If the temperature begins to rise again as it did before 2001, trees in the western region, especially older trees, will suffer more from warming than those in the eastern region. Consequently, older trees in the western Qilian Mountains should be the subject of greater oversight with respect to forest management and protection.

Simulated and predicted responses of tree stem radial growth to climate change—A case study in semi-arid north central China

Precise knowledge how tree growth will respond to future climate change is essential for the adapted management of forest ecosystems. By conducting sensitivity tests, tree-ring process-based cambial growth models can provide an innovative way to better understand wood formation under different climate change scenarios. As a case study in semi-arid north central China, we used artificially increased or decreased daily climatic data as input to the Vaganov-Shashkin dynamic growth model to investigate the response of wood formation to climatic change. By calibrating the tree-ring model using daily climate data over the period 1951–2010, we found that 81% of radial growth was driven by soil moisture, while 13% of growth was controlled by temperature. During the main growing season June–August, significant differences in the integral growth rate occurred after changing precipitation by ± 30% or by decreasing temperature by 3.0 °C (p < 0.05). However, increasing temperature showed only modest effects on tree radial growth rate. During the past 60 years, a significant advancement of the starting dates of growth was detected, whereby non-significant variability was found for the ending dates of growth. Contemporaneously, the effect of previous winter temperature (previous December to current January) on cambial growth initiation declined after 1980. Significant differences in the growth onset dates only occurred when temperature was reduced by 4.5 °C or increased by 5.5 °C. Moreover, both the onset and ending dates of growth in the study region were more sensitive to cooling rather than to warming. If temperature will increase by 2°C and precipitation will increase by 30% at the end of this century as predicted by some Earth system models, tree radial growth might increase by 19% in the study region, compared to the average during the period 1952–2010. Consequently, tree stem radial growth is expected to increase under a warming and wetting climatic scenario, but will decrease under drying conditions.