Reserve Design Research Articles

The effectiveness of a strategic reserve in the presence of a high portfolio share of renewable energy sources

To ensure sufficient investment in electricity generation capacity, mechanisms such as strategic reserves are being considered or already implemented. We analyze the effectiveness of a strategic reserve in the presence of a growing portfolio share of renewable energy sources (RES) with EMLab-Generation, an agent-based electricity market model. A strategic reserve can stabilize investment, but within limits. Uncertainty regarding future demand may cause the market to become instable, potentially leading to periods with very high electricity prices. In the presence of a large share of variable renewable energy sources, the reserve design should be adjusted or replaced by an alternative capacity mechanism.

Optimal design of compact and connected nature reserves for multiple species.

When designing a conservation reserve system for multiple species, spatial attributes of the reserves must be taken into account at species level. The existing optimal reserve design literature considers either one spatial attribute or when multiple attributes are considered the analysis is restricted only to one species. We built a linear integer programing model that incorporates compactness and connectivity of the landscape reserved for multiple species. The model identifies multiple reserves that each serve a subset of target species with a specified coverage probability threshold to ensure the species' long-term survival in the reserve, and each target species is covered (protected) with another probability threshold at the reserve system level. We modeled compactness by minimizing the total distance between selected sites and central sites, and we modeled connectivity of a selected site to its designated central site by selecting at least one of its adjacent sites that has a nearer distance to the central site. We considered structural distance and functional distances that incorporated site quality between sites. We tested the model using randomly generated data on 2 species, one ground species that required structural connectivity and the other an avian species that required functional connectivity. We applied the model to 10 bird species listed as endangered by the state of Illinois (U.S.A.). Spatial coherence and selection cost of the reserves differed substantially depending on the weights assigned to these 2 criteria. The model can be used to design a reserve system for multiple species, especially species whose habitats are far apart in which case multiple disjunct but compact and connected reserves are advantageous. The model can be modified to increase or decrease the distance between reserves to reduce or promote population connectivity.

Modelling marine protected areas: insights and hurdles.

Models provide useful insights into conservation and resource management issues and solutions. Their use to date has highlighted conditions under which no-take marine protected areas (MPAs) may help us to achieve the goals of ecosystem-based management by reducing pressures, and where they might fail to achieve desired goals. For example, static reserve designs are unlikely to achieve desired objectives when applied to mobile species or when compromised by climate-related ecosystem restructuring and range shifts. Modelling tools allow planners to explore a range of options, such as basing MPAs on the presence of dynamic oceanic features, and to evaluate the potential future impacts of alternative interventions compared with 'no-action' counterfactuals, under a range of environmental and development scenarios. The modelling environment allows the analyst to test if indicators and management strategies are robust to uncertainties in how the ecosystem (and the broader human-ecosystem combination) operates, including the direct and indirect ecological effects of protection. Moreover, modelling results can be presented at multiple spatial and temporal scales, and relative to ecological, economic and social objectives. This helps to reveal potential 'surprises', such as regime shifts, trophic cascades and bottlenecks in human responses. Using illustrative examples, this paper briefly covers the history of the use of simulation models for evaluating MPA options, and discusses their utility and limitations for informing protected area management in the marine realm.

Persistence in a Two-Dimensional Moving-Habitat Model.

Environmental changes are forcing many species to track suitable conditions or face extinction. In this study, we use a two-dimensional integrodifference equation to analyze whether a population can track a habitat that is moving due to climate change. We model habitat as a simple rectangle. Our model quickly leads to an eigenvalue problem that determines whether the population persists or declines. After surveying techniques to solve the eigenvalue problem, we highlight three findings that impact conservation efforts such as reserve design and species risk assessment. First, while other models focus on habitat length (parallel to the direction of habitat movement), we show that ignoring habitat width (perpendicular to habitat movement) can lead to overestimates of persistence. Dispersal barriers and hostile landscapes that constrain habitat width greatly decrease the population's ability to track its habitat. Second, for some long-distance dispersal kernels, increasing habitat length improves persistence without limit; for other kernels, increasing length is of limited help and has diminishing returns. Third, it is not always best to orient the long side of the habitat in the direction of climate change. Evidence suggests that the kurtosis of the dispersal kernel determines whether it is best to have a long, wide, or square habitat. In particular, populations with platykurtic dispersal benefit more from a wide habitat, while those with leptokurtic dispersal benefit more from a long habitat. We apply our model to the Rocky Mountain Apollo butterfly (Parnassius smintheus).

Fisheries and biodiversity benefits of using static versus dynamic models for designing marine reserve networks

Marine reserves are widely used to manage for the potentially conflicting objectives of conserving biodiversity and improving fisheries. The fisheries and conservation benefits of alternative reserve designs would ideally be assessed using dynamic models, which consider spillover of fish and larvae to fished areas, and the displacement of fishers to unprotected sites. In practice, however, decisions about the location of marine reserves generally rely on cheaper and faster static models. Static models analyze only spatial patterns in habitats, and typically assume fisheries profits are reduced by the amount that was generated in areas designated as reserves. To help determine the benefits of developing dynamic fisheries models, we assessed how well static models estimate costs of reserve systems to fisheries and how outcomes from reserves designed using either static or dynamic models differ. We tested these questions in two case studies, the network of marine protected areas in southern California, USA and the proposed Tun Mustapha Marine Park in Malaysia. Static models could either under or over‐estimate the cost of reserve plans to fisheries, depending on the relative importance of fisher movement and larval dispersal dynamics. Despite the inaccuracy of static models for estimating costs, reserves designed using static models were similar to those designed with dynamic models if fisheries were well managed; or larval dispersal networks were simple. If larval networks were complex or there was overfishing, dynamic models generated substantially different reserve networks from static models, which improved conservation outcomes by up to 10% and fishing profits by up 20%. The time‐scale of management was also important, because only dynamic models accounted for larval dispersal, so could find reserves that maximized the long‐term benefits of larval spillover. Our case studies provide quantitative support for the assertion that static models can be useful for planning marine reserves for short‐term objectives in well managed fisheries, but are not reliable for evaluating the relative costs of reserves to fisheries.

Projected impacts of climate change on protected birds and nature reserves in China

Knowledge about climate change impacts on species distribution at national scale is critical to biodiversity conservation and design of management programs. Although China is a biodiversity hot spot in the world, potential influence of climate change on Chinese protected birds is rarely studied. Here, we assess the impact of climate change on 108 protected bird species and nature reserves using species distribution modeling at a relatively fine spatial resolution (1km) for the first time. We found that a large proportion of protected species would have potential suitable habitat shrink and northward range shift by 77–90km in response to projected future climate change in 2080. Southeastern China would suffer from losing climate suitability, whereas the climate conditions in Qinghai–Tibet Plateau and northeastern China were projected to become suitable for more protected species. On average, each protected area in China would experience a decline of suitable climate for 3–4 species by 2080. Climate change will modify which species each protected area will be suitable for. Our results showed that the risk of extinction for Chinese protected birds would be high, even in the moderate climate change scenario. These findings indicate that the management and design of nature reserves in China must take climate change into consideration.

No-take marine reserves can enhance population persistence and support the fishery of abalone

A critical aspect in the design of a marine reserve (MR) network is its spatial configuration (i.e., the number, size, and spacing of the individual reserves), particularly how these features influence the effect on fisheries. Here, we derived a size-based, spatially explicit, stochastic demographic model to explore how different spatial configurations of MR networks can affect abundance and commercial yield of the green abalone (Haliotis fulgens), taking as a reference case the abalone fishery of Isla Natividad in Baja California Sur (Mexico). Our analysis suggests that a network of MRs can have a positive effect on abalone population abundance and a slightly negative effect on fishery output with respect to traditional maximum sustainable yield (MSY; i.e., with no reserves). Simulations show that maximum catches achievable with MRs are, under the best configuration, ∼2%–14% lower than traditional MSY depending on the total fraction of the fishing grounds protected. In the case of overexploitation, long-term yields can increase following the implementation of MRs. In addition, in the presence of MRs, abundances and yields are much less sensitive to systematic errors in the enforcement of the optimal harvesting rate compared with situations in which MRs are not present. Given the limited dispersal ability of the species, the best outcomes in terms of fishery output would be achieved with very small reserves — around 100 m wide — so to maximize larval export in the fishable areas. Our results indicate appropriately designed MR networks are an effective strategy for meeting both conservation and economic goals under uncertainty. While the size of the existing reserves in Isla Natividad seems adequate to protect the abalone stock, smaller reserves could maximize fishery benefits, although this poses challenges for enforcement.

Effects of landscape design of forest reserves on Saproxylic beetle diversity.

Increasing the density of natural reserves in the forest landscape may provide conservation benefits for biodiversity within and beyond reserve borders. We used 2 French data sets on saproxylic beetles and landscape cover of forest reserves (LCFR) to test this hypothesis: national standardized data derived from 252 assessment plots in managed and reserve stands in 9 lowland and 5 highland forests and data from the lowland Rambouillet forest, a forested landscape where a pioneer conservation policy led to creation of a dense network of reserves. Abundance of rare and common saproxylic species and total saproxylic species richness were higher in forest reserves than in adjacent managed stands only in highland forests. In the lowland regional case study, as LCFR increased total species richness and common species abundance in reserves increased. In this case study, when there were two or more reserve patches, rare species abundance inside reserves was higher and common species richness in managed stands was higher than when there was a single large reserve. Spillover and habitat amount affected ecological processes underlying these landscape reserve effects. When LCFR positively affected species richness and abundance in reserves or managed stands, >12-20% reserve cover led to the highest species diversity and abundance. This result is consistent with the target of 17% forested land area in reserves set at the Nagoya biodiversity summit in 2010. Therefore, to preserve biodiversity we recommend at least doubling the current proportion of forest reserves in European forested landscapes.

The conservation value of elevation data accuracy and model sophistication in reserve design under sea-level rise.

Many studies have explored the value of using more sophisticated coastal impact models and higher resolution elevation data in sea-level rise (SLR) adaptation planning. However, we know little about to what extent the improved models and data could actually lead to better conservation outcomes under SLR. This is important to know because high-resolution data are likely to not be available in some data-poor coastal areas in the world and running more complicated coastal impact models is relatively time-consuming, expensive, and requires assistance by qualified experts and technicians. We address this research question in the context of identifying conservation priorities in response to SLR. Specifically, we investigated the conservation value of using more accurate light detection and ranging (Lidar)-based digital elevation data and process-based coastal land-cover change models (Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model, SLAMM) to identify conservation priorities versus simple "bathtub" models based on the relatively coarse National Elevation Dataset (NED) in a coastal region of northeast Florida. We compared conservation outcomes identified by reserve design software (Zonation) using three different model dataset combinations (Bathtub-NED, Bathtub-Lidar, and SLAMM-Lidar). The comparisons show that the conservation priorities are significantly different with different combinations of coastal impact models and elevation dataset inputs. The research suggests that it is valuable to invest in more accurate coastal impact models and elevation datasets in SLR adaptive conservation planning because this model-dataset combination could improve conservation outcomes under SLR. Less accurate coastal impact models, including ones created using coarser Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data can still be useful when better data and models are not available or feasible, but results need to be appropriately assessed and communicated. A future research priority is to investigate how conservation priorities may vary among different SLR scenarios when different combinations of model-data inputs are used.

Progress in the ecology and conservation of giant pandas.

Giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) conservation is a possible success story in the making. If extinction of this iconic endangered species can be avoided, the species will become a showcase program for the Chinese government and its collaborators. We reviewed the major advancements in ecological science for the giant panda, examining how these advancements have contributed to panda conservation. Pandas' morphological and behavioral adaptations to a diet of bamboo, which bear strong influence on movement ecology, have been well studied, providing knowledge to guide management actions ranging from reserve design to climate change mitigation. Foraging ecology has also provided essential information used in the creation of landscape models of panda habitat. Because habitat loss and fragmentation are major drivers of the panda population decline, efforts have been made to help identify core habitat areas, establish where habitat corridors are needed, and prioritize areas for protection and restoration. Thus, habitat models have provided guidance for the Chinese governments' creation of 67 protected areas. Behavioral research has revealed a complex and efficient communication system and documented the need for protection of habitat that serves as a communication platform for bringing the sexes together for mating. Further research shows that den sites in old-growth forests may be a limiting resource, indicating potential value in providing alternative den sites for rearing offspring. Advancements in molecular ecology have been revolutionary and have been applied to population census, determining population structure and genetic diversity, evaluating connectivity following habitat fragmentation, and understanding dispersal patterns. These advancements form a foundation for increasing the application of adaptive management approaches to move panda conservation forward more rapidly. Although the Chinese government has made great progress in setting aside protected areas, future emphasis will be improved management of pandas and their habitat.

Quantifying the squeezing or stretching of fisheries as they adapt to displacement by marine reserves.

The designation of no-take marine reserves involves social and economic concerns due to the resulting displacement of fishing effort, when fishing rights are removed from those who traditionally fished within an area. Displacement can influence the functioning of the fishery and success of the reserve, yet levels of displacement are seldom quantified after reserve implementation and very rarely before that. We devised a simple analytical framework based on set theory to facilitate reserve placement. Implementation of the framework requires maps of fishing grounds, fishing effort, or catch per unit effort for at least 2 years. The framework quantifies the level of conflict that a reserve designation might cause in the fishing sector due to displacement and the opportunities to offset the conflict through fisher spatial mobility (i.e., ability of fishers to fish elsewhere). We also considered how the outputs of the framework can be used to identify targeted management interventions for each fishery. We applied the method in Honduras, where the largest marine protected area in Central America is being placed, for which spatial data on fishing effort were available for 6 fisheries over 3 years. The proposed closure had a greater negative impact on the shrimp and lobster scuba fisheries, which concentrated respectively 28% and 18% of their effort inside the reserve. These fisheries could not accommodate the displacement within existing fishing grounds. Both would be forced to stretch into new fishing grounds, which are available but are of unknown quality. These stakeholders will likely require compensation to offset costly exploratory fishing or to travel to fishing grounds farther away from port.

Assessing Habitat Use by Snapper (Chrysophrys auratus) from Baited Underwater Video Data in a Coastal Marine Park.

Baited Underwater Video (BUV) systems have become increasingly popular for assessing marine biodiversity. These systems provide video footage from which biologists can identify the individual fish species present. Here we explore the relevance of spatial dependence and marine park boundaries while estimating the distribution and habitat associations of the commercially and recreationally important snapper species Chrysophrys auratus in Moreton Bay Marine Park during a period when new Marine National Parks zoned as no-take or “green” areas (i.e., areas with no legal fishing) were introduced. BUV studies typically enforce a minimum distance among BUV sites, and then assume that observations from different sites are independent conditional on the measured covariates. In this study, we additionally incorporated the spatial dependence among BUV sites into the modelling framework. This modelling approach allowed us to test whether or not the incorporation of highly correlated environmental covariates or the geographic placement of BUV sites produced spatial dependence, which if unaccounted for could lead to model bias. We fitted Bayesian logistic models with and without spatial random effects to determine if the Marine National Park boundaries and available environmental covariates had an effect on snapper presence and habitat preference. Adding the spatial dependence component had little effect on the resulting model parameter estimates that emphasized positive association for particular coastal habitat types by snapper. Strong positive relationships between the presence of snapper and rock habitat, particularly rocky substrate composed of indurated freshwater sediments known as coffee rock, and kelp habitat reinforce the consideration of habitat availability in marine reserve design and the design of any associated monitoring programs.

Island biology and the consequences of interspecific interactions

Island biology and the consequences of interspecific interactions

Factors influencing incidental representation of previously unknown conservation features in marine protected areas.

Spatially explicit information on species distributions for conservation planning is invariably incomplete; therefore, the use of surrogates is required to represent broad-scale patterns of biodiversity. Despite significant interest in the effectiveness of surrogates for predicting spatial distributions of biodiversity, few researchers have explored questions involving the ability of surrogates to incidentally represent unknown features of conservation interest. We used the Great Barrier Reef marine reserve network to examine factors affecting incidental representation of conservation features that were unknown at the time the reserve network was established. We used spatially explicit information on the distribution of 39 seabed habitats and biological assemblages and the conservation planning software Marxan to examine how incidental representation was affected by the spatial characteristics of the features; the conservation objectives (the minimum proportion of each feature included in no-take areas); the spatial configuration of no-take areas; and the opportunity cost of conservation. Cost was closely and inversely correlated to incidental representation. However, incidental representation was achieved, even in a region with only coarse-scale environmental data, by adopting a precautionary approach that explicitly considered the potential for unknown features. Our results indicate that incidental representation is enhanced by partitioning selection units along biophysical gradients to account for unknown within-feature variability and ensuring that no-take areas are well distributed throughout the region; by setting high conservation objectives that (in this case >33%) maximize the chances of capturing unknown features incidentally; and by carefully considering the designation of cost to planning units when using decision-support tools for reserve design. The lessons learned from incidental representation in the Great Barrier Reef have implications for conservation planning in other regions, particularly those that lack detailed environmental and ecological data.

Distinct cross-shelf gradient in mesophotic reef fish assemblages in subtropical eastern Australia

The hypothesized importance of mesophotic (30 to 150 m depth) reefs justifies the recent trend in scientific scrutiny of these systems. However, to enable assessment of complex concepts such as connectivity and reef dynamics, baseline assemblage characteristics must first be established. This study used baited remote underwater video (BRUV) technology to investigate the assemblage structure of predatory and scavenging fishes across 4 mesophotic reef bands at ca. 30 to 82 m depth, at 2 locations 25 km apart in subtropical eastern Australia. We aimed to quantify patterns in predatory and scavenging fish assemblage structure at these reefs across the continen- tal shelf and relate this to putative structuring environmental variables. Strong cross-shelf gradi- ents were identified in species richness and overall assemblage composition. While the pattern of latitudinal affiliation did not change across the shelf, predatory and scavenging fish assemblages at non-adjacent reefs were statistically distinct (PERMANOVA interaction term p = 0.012), and best (but not well) explained by depth alone (BIOENV ρ = 0.396). A high proportion (15 to 45%) of the fish species at each reef band were found only within that band. These cross-shelf trends con- trasted with those described from more complex shelf topography such as at the Solitary Islands (250 km south), and did not match published patterns of epibenthic assemblage structure. Our results highlight the need for detailed information on mesophotic reef assemblage structure to support marine conservation and reserve design initiatives, rather than relying on generalised trends from the literature.

How universal are reserve design rules? A test using butterflies and their life history traits

We used butterfly species lists available for a set of 125 Czech Republic National Nature Reserves and Monuments, the highest small‐sized conservation category in the country encompassing practically all biotope types existing in central Europe, to test the validity of generally agreed “reserve design rules” using multivariate ordination analyses. Further, we used ordination analysis of butterfly life history traits to seek for biological mechanisms responsible for butterfly community responses to essentially geometric reserves characteristics. Reserve area, relative perimeter, within reserve habitat heterogeneity, and surrounding landscape compositional and configurational heterogeneity all affected the composition of butterfly assemblages after controlling for effects of geographical position and prevailing biotope type. Species inclining towards large reserves displayed low mobility and high local population density, probably because they require large habitat areas to maintain self‐sustaining populations; such species tend to have restricted distribution in the country and threatened status. Reserves with relatively long boundaries hosted species with high mobility, broad trophic range and long adult period; faunas of such reserves contain high proportions of widespread generalists. Species with narrow trophic ranges inclined towards reserves containing diverse habitats, probably due to requirements for high floristic diversity. Species with short adult flight, low generations number and overwintering in early stages inclined towards reserves situated amidst diverse landscapes, perhaps because such species require finely‐grained mosaics for metapopulation dynamics. Commonly agreed reserve design rules thus hold for Central European butterflies, but different design characteristics are important for individual species, depending on their life histories.

Rationale and design of the Fractional Flow Reserve versus Angiography for Multivessel Evaluation (FAME) 3 Trial: A comparison of fractional flow reserve–guided percutaneous coronary intervention and coronary artery bypass graft surgery in patients with multivessel coronary artery disease

Guidelines recommend coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery over percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for the treatment of 3-vessel coronary artery disease (3-VD). The inferior results of PCI demonstrated by previous large randomized trials comparing PCI and CABG might be explained by the use of suboptimal stent technology and by the lack of fractional flow reserve (FFR) guidance of PCI. The objective of this investigator-initiated, multicenter, randomized clinical trial is to investigate whether FFR-guided PCI with new-generation stents is noninferior to CABG in patients with 3-VD, not including the left main coronary artery. Eligible patients must have ≥50% coronary stenoses in all 3 major epicardial vessels or major side branches. Patients with a nondominant right coronary artery may be included only if the left anterior descending artery and left circumflex have ≥50% stenoses. Consecutive patients who meet all of the inclusion criteria and none of the exclusion criteria will be randomized in a 1:1 fashion to either CABG or FFR-guided PCI. Coronary artery bypass graft will be performed based on the angiogram as per clinical routine. Patients assigned to FFR-guided PCI will have FFR measured in each diseased vessel and only undergo stenting if the FFR is ≤0.80. The primary end point of the study is a composite of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events, including death, myocardial infarction, repeat coronary revascularization, and stroke at 1 year. Key secondary end point will be a composite of death, myocardial infarction, and stroke at 3-year follow-up. Other secondary end points include the individual adverse events, cost-effectiveness, and quality of life at 2-year, 3-year, with up to 5-year follow-up. The FAME 3 study will compare in a multicenter, randomized fashion FFR-guided PCI with contemporary drug-eluting stents to CABG in patients with 3-VD.

Conservation oriented habitat classification scheming and mapping of Egypt

Abstract Background “habitat classification models” are invaluable tools for species conservation, land-use planning, reserve design, and meta-population assessments, particularly at broad spatial scales”. Globally, there are at least 23 schemes developed for habitat classification schemes. The pioneer attempts in Egypt for classifying habitats were started by the series of Kassas giving a concern about dry lands and desertification problems. The main purpose of this paper is to: 1) present a suitable model for large scale planning to support the decision making process towards the natural resources in Egypt, 2) standardize data collection on habitats which will assist in management and conservation of the Egypt’s natural heritage. Results This paper presents new GIS-based habitat classification hierarchy that contains 5 main habitat systems, 12 habitat sub-system and 36 habitat classes. One of the major outputs of this present scheme is to define the boundaries of the three classes (epipelagic – mesopelagic – bathypelagic) of the pelagic sub-system. Conclusion This hierarchy represents a new GIS-based standardized habitats scheming for Egypt. It was designed to support the current efforts to define the key biodiversity hotspots as well as long term planning of biodiversity at the national level. This new habitat mapping/scheming, has considerable potential utility for conservation priority setting for Egypt; it could be used to design and update the existing protected areas network; it could be used to evaluate the protected areas system representativeness, and climate change impacts studies. It is recommended to link habitat classification and mapping efforts in Egypt to regional and global approaches.

Reserve Design under Climate Change: From Land Facets Back to Ecosystem Representation.

Ecosystem distributions are expected to shift as a result of global warming, raising concerns about the long-term utility of reserve systems based on coarse-filter ecosystem representation. We tested the extent to which proportional ecosystem representation targets would be maintained under a changing climate by projecting the distribution of the major ecosystems of Alberta, Canada, into the future using bioclimatic envelope models and then calculating the composition of reserves in successive periods. We used the Marxan conservation planning software to generate the suite of reserve systems for our test, varying the representation target and degree of reserve clumping. Our climate envelope projections for the 2080s indicate that virtually all reserves will, in time, be comprised of different ecosystem types than today. Nevertheless, our proportional targets for ecosystem representation were maintained across all time periods, with only minor exceptions. We hypothesize that this stability in representation arises because ecosystems may be serving as proxies for land facets, the stable abiotic landscape features that delineate major arenas of biological activity. The implication is that accommodating climate change may not require abandoning the conventional ecosystem-based approach to reserve design in favour of a strictly abiotic approach, since the two approaches may be largely synonymous.

Regimes of chlorophyll‐a in the Coral Sea: implications for evaluating adequacy of marine protected areas

Spatial management of the highly dynamic pelagic realm, and the highly mobile species it supports, requires dynamic processes to be incorporated into reserve design. To achieve this, planners need information on how these processes vary across space and time, and how this variation relates to species of conservation interest. This study presents a new method of quantifying variability that captures both between‐ and within‐year changes in variables of interest. We applied this method to remotely‐sensed chlorophyll‐a in the Coral Sea to find five distinct regimes of variation that serve as surrogates for assemblages of species of conservation interest. We performed a gap analysis to determine protection of the regimes both internationally and nationally within Australia's network of marine reserves in the Coral Sea. We also identified key areas for protection within each regime, in terms of chlorophyll‐a variability and species associations, and examined their protection status. Depending on conservation objectives, reserve systems that span multiple national jurisdictions and a rezoning of Australian national waters might be necessary to meet protection requirements for the regimes and for key areas within them. The current suspension and review of the Coral Sea Commonwealth Marine Reserve management plans and the recent proclamation of New Caledonia's as yet unzoned Coral Sea Nature Park offer planners an opportunity to incorporate dynamic processes into conservation planning for the Coral Sea. The method we present can be applied at other locations for time‐series of any variable/s of interest, aiding the spatial management of dynamic features in both marine and terrestrial contexts.