Abstract
Many studies have explored the value of using more sophisticated coastal impact models and higher resolution elevation data in sea-level rise (SLR) adaptation planning. However, we know little about to what extent the improved models and data could actually lead to better conservation outcomes under SLR. This is important to know because high-resolution data are likely to not be available in some data-poor coastal areas in the world and running more complicated coastal impact models is relatively time-consuming, expensive, and requires assistance by qualified experts and technicians. We address this research question in the context of identifying conservation priorities in response to SLR. Specifically, we investigated the conservation value of using more accurate light detection and ranging (Lidar)-based digital elevation data and process-based coastal land-cover change models (Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model, SLAMM) to identify conservation priorities versus simple "bathtub" models based on the relatively coarse National Elevation Dataset (NED) in a coastal region of northeast Florida. We compared conservation outcomes identified by reserve design software (Zonation) using three different model dataset combinations (Bathtub-NED, Bathtub-Lidar, and SLAMM-Lidar). The comparisons show that the conservation priorities are significantly different with different combinations of coastal impact models and elevation dataset inputs. The research suggests that it is valuable to invest in more accurate coastal impact models and elevation datasets in SLR adaptive conservation planning because this model-dataset combination could improve conservation outcomes under SLR. Less accurate coastal impact models, including ones created using coarser Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data can still be useful when better data and models are not available or feasible, but results need to be appropriately assessed and communicated. A future research priority is to investigate how conservation priorities may vary among different SLR scenarios when different combinations of model-data inputs are used.
Highlights
It is important to accurately identify and delineate conservation priorities as a means of guiding future land-use planning and decision-making, and maintaining critical ecosystem services and green infrastructure
Approaches for modeling the impacts of sea-level rise (SLR) on coastal ecosystems vary in their level of accuracy and data requirements, from simplistic “bathtub” model that assumes everything under a certain level of SLR will be inundated, to more sophisticated coastal impact models such as Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM; Clough et al 2010) that account for hydrological and ecological processes (Mcleod et al 2010)
Compared with current land-cover, wetland areas under a 1.0 m SLR scenario are likely to decrease with the Bathtub–National Elevation Dataset (NED) and Bathtub–light detection and ranging (Lidar) combinations but increase with the SLAMM–Lidar combinations
Summary
It is important to accurately identify and delineate conservation priorities as a means of guiding future land-use planning and decision-making, and maintaining critical ecosystem services and green infrastructure. Sea-level rise (SLR) and other effects of global climate change produce a decision-making environment marked by high uncertainty (Noss 2011). Uncertainty exists around the appropriate choice of impact assessment methods with different models and parameterizations potentially producing different results (Mcleod et al 2010). Approaches for modeling the impacts of SLR on coastal ecosystems vary in their level of accuracy and data requirements, from simplistic “bathtub” model that assumes everything under a certain level of SLR will be inundated, to more sophisticated coastal impact models such as Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM; Clough et al 2010) that account for hydrological and ecological processes (Mcleod et al 2010).
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
