Reported Crime Rates Research Articles

Immigration, labor markets and discrimination: Evidence from the Venezuelan Exodus in Perú

Venezuela is currently experiencing the biggest crisis in its recent history. This has led more than 7.3 million Venezuelans to emigrate, at least 1.5 million of those to Peru, which amounted to an increase of over 4 percent in the Peruvian population. Venezuelan immigrants in Peru are relatively similar in cultural terms, but, on average, more skilled than Peruvians. In this paper, we first examine Venezuelans’ perceptions of being discriminated against in Peru. Using an instrumental variable strategy, we document a causal relationship between the level of employment in the informal sector – where most immigrants are employed – and reports of discrimination. We then study the impact of Venezuelan migration on local’s labor market outcomes, reported crime rates, and attitudes using a variety of data sources. We find that inflows of Venezuelans to particular locations led to increased employment and income among locals, decreased reported crime, and improved reported community quality. We conduct a heterogeneity analysis to identify the mechanisms behind these labor market effects and discuss the implications for Peruvian immigration policy.

Community policing and the organizational structure of campus law enforcement agencies

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the extent to which community policing within campus law enforcement agencies is influenced by the organizational structure, agency characteristics and campus characteristics.Design/methodology/approachThis study utilizes ordinary least squares regression modeling to examine community policing implementation. Data were drawn from a sample of 242 US colleges and universities included in the 2011–2012 Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) Survey of Campus Law Enforcement Agencies (SCLEA).FindingsFindings show that within-campus law enforcement agencies, greater levels of community policing are associated with more formalization, larger numbers of employees, a higher task scope and higher rates of on-campus property crime.Research limitations/implicationsUse of secondary data and reported crime rate limits the study. Future research should implement specialized surveys and qualitative methods to identify the specific needs and implementations of community policing.Originality/valueThis paper adds to the limited body of literature on the community policing in campus law enforcement through more recent data and the inclusion of campus community variables.

Proximity to the U.S./Mexico border, alcohol outlet density and population-based sociodemographic correlates of spatially aggregated violent crimes in California

This paper examines trends and population-level correlates of violent crime rates from 2005 to 2017 in California, including proximity to the U.S./Mexico border and alcohol outlet density. Crime data come from the Crimes and Clearances report compiled by the California Department of Justice. These and U.S. Census data were aggregated at the level of 499 Law Enforcement Reporting Areas (LERA) that contributed to the report. Reported crime rates were related to area characteristics using hierarchical Bayesian Poisson space-time models. Violent crime rates declined 16% from 2005 to 2017. Crime rates were positively related to distance to the border, total alcohol outlet density, percent outlets that are bars and pubs, percent population Black, percent population Hispanic, percent population 30–49 years of age, percent population U.S. born, percent 150% below federal poverty level, percent high school graduate, and percent houses vacant. Violent crimes were negatively related to percent total outlets that are off-premise, percent population male, percent with higher than 2017 adjusted median income, percent owner occupied houses, and lower population density. In conclusion, several population level characteristics including ethnic composition, community socioeconomic stability, and alcohol availability are associated with violent crime rates. Contrary to public perceptions, violent crime rates increase as distance to the Mexico border increases.

The dark footprint of state violence: A synthetic approach to the American crime decline

This project combines the conversation on the national crime rate with emerging discussions on the violence that the state perpetrates against civilians. To measure US lethal violence holistically, we reconceptualize the traditional definitional boundaries of violence to erase arbitrary distinctions between state- and civilian-caused crime and violence. Discussions of the “crime decline” focus specifically on civilian crime, positioning civilians as the sole danger to the health, wealth, and safety of individuals. Violence committed by the state—from police homicide to deaths in custody to in-prison sexual assault—is not found in the traditionally reported crime rate. These absences belie real dangers posed to individuals which are historical and contemporary, nonnegligible, and possibly rising. We present Uniform Crime Report data side-by-side with data on police killings, deaths in custody, and executions from sources such as Fatal Encounters, the Washington Post, the Guardian, and the Center for Disease Control to produce a robust discussion of deaths produced through the criminal legal system. We ground this empirical analysis in a broader conceptual framework that situates state violence squarely within the realm of US crime, and explore the implications of this more holistic view of crime for future analyses.

Prosecutorial Reform and Local Crime Rates

Many communities across the United States have elected reform-minded, progressive prosecutors who seek to reduce the reach and burden of the criminal justice system. Such prosecutors have implemented reforms such as scaling back the prosecution of nonviolent misdemeanors, diverting defendants to treatment programs instead of punishment, and recommending against cash bail for defendants who might otherwise be detained pretrial. Such policies are controversial, and many worry that they could increase crime by reducing deterrent and incapacitation effects. In this paper we use variation in the timing of when these prosecutors took office, across 35 jurisdictions, to measure the effect of their policies on reported crime rates. While our estimates are imprecisely estimated, we find no significant effects of these reforms on local crime rates.

Estimating the impact of crime risk on housing prices in Malaysia

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to examine the impact of crime risk on housing prices at a national level in Malaysia during the period from 1988 to 2016.Design/methodology/approachA hedonic regression approach was used to estimate the Malaysian households’ valuation for crime risk. Specifically, the state-level property index on the state-level reported crime rate was regressed while controlling for state-level socioeconomic variables. The macroeconomic panel nature of the data set provides the merit to use a panel dynamic model instead of the traditional static panel data techniques (fixed effects or first difference).FindingsPanel dynamic estimators consistently show a negative impact of crime risks on housing prices. The estimated elasticity of housing prices with respect to crime risks ranges from −0.141 to −0.166, in line with existing literature using micro level data. In fact, householders in crime hotspot states are willing to pay more for crime reduction compared to householders in non-hotspot states. The willingness to pay has also increased since the implementation of nationwide crime reduction plans in 2010.Research limitations/implicationsThis is the first study that has examined the Malaysian people’s willingness to pay to reduce crime. This information is important in determining the optimal level of government expenditures for public safety.Originality/valueThis is the first study to examine the relationship between crime rates and housing prices in Malaysia. This study contributes to the literature by examining the impact of crime rates on housing prices at a national level by using panel dynamic models. The macro level data results are consistent and complement the existing literature based on micro level data.

Gender-specific associations between perceived and objective neighbourhood crime and metabolic syndrome.

Much research has considered the relationship between neighbourhood crime and physical activity, but few studies have assessed clinical outcomes consequent to behaviour, such as cardiometabolic risk. Fewer still have simultaneously assessed perceived and objective measures of crime. Perceptions of crime and actual victimisation vary according to gender; thus, this study sought to assess: 1) correspondence between perceived and objective neighbourhood crime; and 2) gender-specific associations between perceived and reported crime and metabolic syndrome, representing cardiometabolic risk. The indirect effect of neighbourhood crime on metabolic syndrome via walking was additionally evaluated. An Australian population-based biomedical cohort study (2004–2007) collected biomedical, socio-demographic, and neighbourhood perceptions data from n = 1,172 urban-dwelling, adults. Area-level reported crime rates were standardised and linked to individual data based on participants' residential location. Correspondence between actual and perceived crime measures was assessed using Pearson correlation coefficients. Cross-sectional associations between crime and metabolic syndrome were analysed using generalised estimating equations regression models accounting for socio-demographic factors and area-level income. Correspondence between perceived and objective crime was small to medium among men and women (r = 0.17 to 0.33). Among men, metabolic syndrome was related to rates of violent (OR = 1.21, 95% CI 1.08–1.35) and total crime (OR = 1.17, 95% CI 1.04–1.32), after accounting for perceived crime. Among women, metabolic syndrome was related to perceived crime (OR = 1.35, 95% CI 1.14–1.60) after accounting for total reported crime. Among women, there were indirect effects of perceived crime and property crime on metabolic syndrome through walking. Results indicate that crime, an adverse social exposure, is linked to clinical health status. Crime rates, and perceptions of crime and safety, differentially impact upon cardiometabolic health according to gender. Social policy and public health strategies targeting crime reduction, as well as strategies to increase perceptions of safety, have potential to contribute to improved cardiometabolic outcomes.

Crime Statistics: Modeling Theft in Favour of Victims’ Choices

The number of reported property thefts has dropped steeply in many European countries over the last 15 years. One reason for this could be that people have become more honest, which would imply that fewer resources should be allocated to the police and to crime prevention measures. In this paper, we have elaborated upon some alternative explanatory factors behind the decrease in the number of reported crimes within a utility-maximizing model where both thefts and victims are behaving rationally. Increased time and travelling costs for reporting, economic growth and a lower rate of solving crime could all explain the development in the reported crime rate. Within this theoretical approach, the nominal crime rate could decrease, while the real crime rate either remains constant or even increases. Applying the number of reported thefts as the sole or main parameter for allocating resources for crime prevention measures may result in a sub-optimal resource allocation. Developments in the number of reported thefts must therefore be supplemented by other indicators to provide a better basis to ensure an optimal allocation of police resources to combat theft. Estimates of unreported crimes must also be included as part of the basis of these allocation decisions.

Structural Intervention Time Series Analysis of Crime Rates: The Impact of Sentence Reform in Virginia

AbstractWe adopt a structural time series analysis to investigate the impact of parole abolitionand sentence reform in Virginia on reported crime rates. The Commonwealth of Virginiaabolished parole and reformed sentencing for all felony offences committed on or afterJanuary 1, 1995. To examine the impact of Virginia’s change in legislation on reportedcrime rates from 1995 onwards, we perform an intervention time series analysis basedon structural time series models. We empirically find that the change in legislation hassignificantly reduced the burglary rates and to a lesser extent the murder rates in Virginia.For other violent crimes such as rape and aggravated assault the evidence of a significantreduction in crime rates is less evident or is not found. This empirical study for Virginiaalso provides an illustration of how an effective intervention time series analysis can becarried out in crime studies.Keywords: Intervention time series analysis; Crime rates; Structural time series models;Unobserved components time series models.

CCTV and Campus Crime: Challenging a Technological “Fix”

Universities using closed circuit television (CCTV) systems often tout its deterrent role when justifying the use of this technology. Using a sample of 336 U.S. universities, we examine the relationship between CCTV and reported crime rates using Clery Act crime data to discern whether CCTV has a deterrent impact on campus crime, controlling for other variables. We find that CCTV appears to have little to no impact. Rather, crime rates are associated with location (suburban, urban, rural), institutional control (public, private), student population density, level of tuition and fees, student-body demographics (e.g., gender, race), and crime control practices other than CCTV (e.g., scheduled security patrols, student transportation/escort services). These relationships differ by type of crime (e.g., property vs. violent). Implications for policy and future research are discussed.

The Price of Justice: New National and State-Level Estimates of the Judicial and Legal Costs of Crime to Taxpayers

Programs that prevent crime cost money. In order to efficiently allocate these limited funds, we need to know how much people benefit from crime prevention. While there are some comprehensive estimates of the cost of (or benefits of avoiding) crime to victims and to society at large, we have very limited crime-specific information on the legal system resources that would be freed up for other purposes across states. Using a Monte Carlo simulation approach to take into account uncertainty in the data, this study finds the national average costs to taxpayers for judicial/legal services per reported crime are likely around the following (in 2010 dollars): $22,000–$44,000 (homicide), $2000–$5000 (rape and sexual assault), $600–$1300 (robbery), $800–$2100 (aggravated assault), $200–$600 (burglary), $300–$600 (larceny/theft), and $200–$400 (motor vehicle theft). At a state-level, the costs of crime are 50 % to 70 % more or less than these national averages depending on the crime type and state. These estimates can be used to understand the level of resources spent per crime and the potential legal resources freed up for a change in reported crime rates; they are not a measure of waste or efficiency, but it is hoped this study contributes to this debate.

Testing the impact of local alcohol licencing policies on reported crime rates in England

BackgroundExcessive alcohol use contributes to public nuisance, antisocial behaviour, and domestic, interpersonal and sexual violence. We test whether licencing policies aimed at restricting its spatial and/or temporal availability, including cumulative...

Hidden in the Shadows: The Impact of Temporary Worker Populations on Crime Rate Calculations

Crime rates have long been established as standard metrics in criminological research and have been recognized for their utility in many different contexts. The utility of crime rates, however, depends largely on the accuracy of the data that are used to operationalize them. Using three jurisdictions in the province of Alberta, Canada, as case studies, this research note sets out to assess the impact of including shadow populations (i.e., temporary workers) in the denominator of crime rate calculations. Results of the alternative crime calculations reveal that, in some cases, shadow populations make very little difference to reported crime rates. In other cases, however, shadow populations make large differences. It is concluded that municipal census data that include shadow population counts ought to be given greater consideration, particularly for municipalities with large shadow population to permanent population ratios.

Increasing Neighborhood Crime is Associated with Increasing Sedentary Time. Longitudinal Evidence from 51,222 Australians

Changes in neighborhood crime may effect participation in active lifestyles and, consequently, the success of interventions aimed at increasing physical activity or reducing sedentary time. Previous research, however, has tended to rely on cross-sectional data and perceptions of crime, rather than longitudinal studies of reported crime rates. PURPOSE: We examined whether changes in sedentary time were associated with a change in neighborhood crime in people aged 45 years and older. METHODS: Fixed effects linear regression were used to assess the degree of association between self-reported sitting time and five tertile-based measures of neighborhood crime: non-domestic violence; malicious damage; break and enter; stealing, theft and robbery; and an aggregated ‘total crime’ measure. Sitting time data was sourced from the baseline dataset of The 45 and Up Study (a large-scale cohort study of health and social phenomena across New South Wales, Australia) and from the Social, Economic and Environmental Factors (SEEF) Study (a sub-study of The 45 and Up Study). Crime data were provided by the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research. Gender-stratified analyses were fitted for 24,053 men and 27,169 women who remained in the same Statistical Local Area (a unit of geography comprising on average of 32,000 residents) between baseline (45 and Up assessment) and follow-up (SEEF assessment), and were adjusted for time-variant confounders (age, income, economic status, couple status, and physical health). RESULTS: Fully adjusted models indicated an increase in sitting time is associated with an increase in neighborhood crime for men and women. An increase in non-domestic violence from tertile 1 (low) to tertile 3 (high) coincided with an increase in sitting time among men, (β=0.41, 95%CI 0.23, 0.59), and women (β=0.23, 95%CI 0.08, 0.39). Larger effect sizes were observed for a tertile 1-to-3 increase in malicious damage for men (β=0.62, 95%CI 0.49, 0.76) and women (β=0.49, 95%CI 0.38, 0.61). CONCLUSIONS: Increasing levels of neighborhood crime, especially types which influence the local built environment, may increase sedentary behaviour and discourage active lifestyles. Investments in crime prevention are investments in health promotion.

Is crime associated with over-the-counter pharmacy syringe sales? Findings from Los Angeles, California

BackgroundMore than 50,000 new HIV infections occur annually in the United States. Injection drug users represent twelve percent of incident HIV infections each year. Pharmacy sales of over-the-counter (OTC) syringes have helped prevent HIV transmission among injection drug users in many states throughout the United States. However, concerns exist among some law enforcement officials, policymakers, pharmacists, and community members about potential links between OTC syringe sales and crime. MethodsWe used a geographic information system and novel spatial and longitudinal analyses to determine whether implementation of pharmacy-based OTC syringe sales were associated with reported crime between January 2006 and December 2008 in Los Angeles Police Department Reporting Districts. We assessed reported crime pre- and post-OTC syringe sales initiation as well as longitudinal associations between crime and OTC syringe-selling pharmacies. ResultsBy December 2008, 9.3% (94/1010) of Los Angeles Police Department Reporting Districts had at least one OTC syringe-selling pharmacy. Overall reported crime counts and reported crime rates decreased between 2006 and 2008 in all 1010 Reporting Districts. Using generalized estimating equations and adjusting for potential confounders, reported crime rates were negatively associated with OTC syringe sales (adjusted rate ratio: 0.89; 95% confidence interval: 0.81, 0.99). ConclusionOur findings demonstrate that OTC pharmacy syringe sales were not associated with increases in reported crime in local communities in Los Angeles during 2006–2008.

Overview of “The past as prologue? Decarceration in California then and now”

Overview of “The past as prologue? Decarceration in California then and now”

The past as prologue?

The past as prologue?

Communities, Crime, and Reactions to Crime Multilevel Models: Accomplishments and Meta-Challenges

Of interest here are theories about the impacts of both community and individual features on individual-level outcomes like victimization, reactions to crime like fear or avoidance, or related perceptions of features of local context such as perceived risk. Relevant community features could be almost anything, depending on the theory: demographic structural dimensions, land use features, reported crime rates, removal or return rates, or features of local social, cultural or political climate. Communities are areas where people live which are smaller than cities and larger than individual address parcels or land uses (Hunter 1979). Spatial communities exist at multiple levels, such as streetblocks within neighborhoods. (Taylor 1997). Crime refers to reported crime rates and self-reported victimization. Reactions to crime include concerns for personal safety such as fear of crime and worries for personal property, and more cognitively-weighted reactions such as perceptions of risk or assessments of crime severities in the locale (Dubow et al. 1979). A modified Boudon-Coleman “boat” diagram can be used as a metamodel for organizing our understanding of the types of links in theories about crime impacts or reactions to crime. See Fig. 1 (Boudon 1986: 29–31; Bunge 2006; Coleman 1990: 10). Although community attributes and changes are conditioned by broader societal and geographic factors such as de-industrialization (Kasarda 1992; Lane 1997) and suburban expansion (Marshall 1979) for example, the primary conceptual focus is on community-level features and individual-level features and dynamics. The Boudon-Coleman metamodel suggests two links are operative when individual-level outcomes are of interest: context effects of community features (macro-level inputs) on individual attributes (micro-level inputs) (Ma-I → Mi-I), and impacts of individual-level attributes on individual-level outcomes (micro-level outputs) (Mi-I → Mi-O). Of course, if spatially aggregated outcomes are of interest then the final link between individual-level outcomes and community-level outcomes (macro-level outcomes) (Mi-O → Ma-O) becomes relevant as well. This perspective assumes methodological individualism—the behaviors of individuals are key building blocks for social change—but is not tautological when considering aggregated outcomes (Boudon 1986: 53). Open image in new window Fig. 1 Meta-model orientation to crime, people, and places In such a theoretical frame the macro-to-micro and micro-to-macro links hold considerable theoretical interest (Liska 1990). The first tells us about how context shapes individual-level dynamics. The second tells us how agency operates. Methodological individualism is avoided when interpreting the second link since local social processes such as norm formation also shape such dynamics (Boudon 1986: 53; Coleman 1990: 22, 30, 265, 273,599). Even if attention is limited to aggregated individual actions without the concept of interdependencies, non-intuitive collective outcomes can arise (Boudon 1986: 57). The most central idea in this metatheoretical approach, given the current focus, is as follows: although ecological relationships between macro-level inputs and macro-level outputs can be modeled, understanding such macro-level dynamics (Ma-I → Ma-O) hinges on gaining insight into the constituent links in the chain: Ma-I → Mi-I → Mi-O → Ma-O. The ecological connection depends on the underlying macro → micro → micro → macro processes.

Įkalinimas Lietuvoje: praktika ir prasmė

The aim of the article is to analyse the practice of sentencing in Lithuania, its changes and tendencies. The incanceration rates in Lithuania are one of the highest among the European Countries despite the minor difference in reported crime rates. The questions the dominant "corrective" conception and suggest that clearly defined purpose of re-socialization could the grounds to reform the system of imprisonment.

Intervention Time Series Analysis of Crime Rates

The Commonwealth of Virginia abolished parole and reformed sentencing for all felony offenders committed on or after January 1, 1995. We examine the impact of this legislation on reported crime rates using different time series approaches. In particular, structural time series models are considered as an alternative to the Box-Jenkins ARIMA models that form the standard time series approach to intervention analysis. Limited support for the deterrent impact of parole abolition and sentence reform is obtained using univariate modelling devices, even after including unemployment as an explanatory variable. Finally, the flexibility of structural time series models is illustrated by presenting a multivariate analysis that provides some additional evidence of the deterrent impact of the new legislation.