Hidden in the Shadows: The Impact of Temporary Worker Populations on Crime Rate Calculations

Abstract

Crime rates have long been established as standard metrics in criminological research and have been recognized for their utility in many different contexts. The utility of crime rates, however, depends largely on the accuracy of the data that are used to operationalize them. Using three jurisdictions in the province of Alberta, Canada, as case studies, this research note sets out to assess the impact of including shadow populations (i.e., temporary workers) in the denominator of crime rate calculations. Results of the alternative crime calculations reveal that, in some cases, shadow populations make very little difference to reported crime rates. In other cases, however, shadow populations make large differences. It is concluded that municipal census data that include shadow population counts ought to be given greater consideration, particularly for municipalities with large shadow population to permanent population ratios.