A Case Study of the Crime Rate in Chinese Mainland and Hong Kong

Abstract

A series of studies have explored the relationship between crime rates and socioeconomic factors. Few researchers, however, have made an empirical analysis of the crime rate in China over the past 30 years. In terms of the data spanning 30 years involving five probable factors: Gross Domestic Product, Consumer Price Index, employment rate, divorce rate and educational rate, I find that the change in crime rates is mainly correlated with the change in education level and unemployment rate in Chinese mainland and Hong Kong. But the growth of the gross domestic product, which is a macroeconomic indicator, may not be as important as one might think in the change in crime rate. In particular, I also look at the impact of major events on crime rates -- the return of Hong Kong and the promulgation of the Criminal Law Amendment in 1997 and found that the Criminal Law Amendment had a positive impact on the crime rate in the Chinese mainland. This paper conducts an empirical modelling analysis of panel data from 1990 to 2020 in Chines mainland and Hong Kong from different social systems, measures the impact of different factors on the crime rate, and tries to find the most effective way to reduce the crime rate for China. Through the analysis, it can be found that in the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong, the most effective way to reduce the crime rate is not to develop the economy but to improve the overall level of education.