Renewable Jet Research Articles

Optical probing of high intensity laser interaction with micron-sized cryogenic hydrogen jets

Probing the rapid dynamics of plasma evolution in laser-driven plasma interactions provides deeper understanding of experiments in the context of laser-driven ion acceleration and facilitates the interplay with complementing numerical investigations. Besides the microscopic scales involved, strong plasma (self-)emission, predominantly around the harmonics of the driver laser, often complicates the data analysis. We present the concept and the implementation of a stand-alone probe laser system that is temporally synchronized to the driver laser, providing probing wavelengths beyond the harmonics of the driver laser. The capability of this system is shown during a full-scale laser proton acceleration experiment using renewable cryogenic hydrogen jet targets. For further improvements, we studied the influence of probe color, observation angle of the probe and temporal contrast of the driver laser on the probe image quality.

Emerging bioeconomy sectors in energy systems modeling – Integrated systems analysis of electricity, heat, road transport, aviation, and chemicals: a case study for the Netherlands

AbstractSeveral studies that have assessed the role of bioenergy in the energy system have primarily focused on electricity, heat, and road transport. However, sectors that have few alternatives to biomass, namely aviation and the chemical industry, are expected to become increasingly important. We have extended a bottom‐up energy systems model with fossil‐based and bio‐based chemicals and with renewable jet fuels to assess the deployment of biomass conversion technologies in the Netherlands until 2030. The model comprises detailed cost‐structures and mid‐term developments for the energy system with detailed cost‐supply curves for biomass, renewable energy technologies, and carbon capture and storage. The framework incorporates multi‐output processes, such as biorefineries, to address cross‐sectoral synergies. To capture the uncertainty in technical progress, technology development scenarios are used to assess cost‐optimal biomass utilization pathways over time. Slow technical progress (LowTech) leads to biomass applications for heating, first‐generation biofuels from hydrotreated oils, and bio‐based chemicals based on first‐generation fermentation systems. Enhanced technology development (HighTech) allows the production of second‐generation biofuels, large volumes of diverse bio‐based chemicals and renewable jet fuels. The required biomass may range from 230 PJ (LowTech) to 300 PJ (HighTech) in 2030, supplied primarily from imported resources. Both scenarios show that, under existing policies, CO2 emissions will only gradually be reduced to reach 1990 levels (140–145 Mt CO2). Further scenario analysis is recommended to assess model sensitivity and the necessary preconditions for future biomass conversion pathways and robust directions towards the required greenhouse‐gas mitigation pathways. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Life Cycle Impacts and Techno-economic Implications of Flash Hydrolysis in Algae Processing

Generation of coproducts from nutrients is purported to improve the sustainability of algae-derived transportation fuels by minimizing life cycle impacts and improving economic sustainability. Although algae cultivation produces lipids that is upgraded to drop-in transportation fuel products, life cycle assessment and techno-economic analysis have shown that without coproducts, energy/economic returns are diminishing regardless of processing methods. This study utilizes a combined flash hydrolysis (FH), hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL), and coproduct conversion technology (atmospheric precipitation/AP; hydrothermal mineralization/HTM) to conserve the most recyclable nutrients for coproduct marketability. Six biofuel pathways were developed and compared in terms of “well-to-pump” energy, life cycle greenhouse gas (LC-GHG) emissions, and economic profitability: renewable diesel II (RDII), renewable gasoline (RG), and hydroprocessed renewable jet (HRJ) fuel, each were modeled for AP and HTM coproduct conversi...

Effect of Metal–Acid Balance on Hydroprocessed Renewable Jet Fuel Synthesis from Hydrocracking and Hydroisomerization of Biohydrogenated Diesel over Pt-Supported Catalysts

The development of Pt-supported catalysts for a selective hydrocracking and hydroisomerization of biohydrogenated diesel (BHD, n-C15–C18) to hydroprocessed renewable jet (HRJ) fuel (C9–C14) was investigated. The different acidic supports (i.e., HY zeolite with SiO2/Al2O3 ratios of 5.5 and 100 and amorphous silica–alumina supports) loaded with 0.5 wt % Pt content were prepared and tested for the catalytic conversion of BHD to HRJ fuel. The Pt supported on HY zeolite with SiO2/Al2O3 ratio of 100 denoted as Pt/HY(100) catalyst exhibited the highest jet fuel yield with high branched isomers due to its good balance between metal and acid function. The effects of the reaction temperature, reaction pressure, and liquid hourly space velocity (LHSV) on the hydrocracking and hydroisomerization performance were studied over Pt/HY(100) catalyst. The jet fuel yield was obtained at maximum value of 33 wt % at 310 °C, 450 psig, LHSV of 1.0 h–1, and H2/BHD molar ratio of 30. A stability test was also conducted over Pt/HY...

Sustainable production of renewable aviation fuel through intensification strategies

In the transportation industry, aviation is one of the most dynamic sectors. The forecast indicates that aviation will grow at 4.8% until 2036, which implies that fuel requirements will double along with CO2 emissions. Therefore, the sustainable development of aviation sector faces great challenges and relies on a four-pillar strategy, which includes increasing engine efficiency, optimization of flight trajectories, and alternative fuels. Renewable jet fuel, also known as biojet fuel, consists of hydrocarbons in the range of boiling point of fossil jet fuel, C8-C16, obtained from the biomass processing. There are different pathways to produce biojet fuel, being the hydroprocessing of triglyceride feedstock one of the most reliable and advanced. The hydrotreating process consists of three main steps: hydrodeoxygenation, cracking and isomerizing, and finally purification; also, it allows obtaining biojet fuel with the required properties from different renewable oils. Nevertheless, it has several opportunity areas to decrease energy consumption and environmental impact.Therefore, in this work an analysis of hydrotreating processes to produce biojet fuel is presented in terms of energy consumption, total annual costs, and CO2 emissions. Different renewable raw materials of high productive potential in Mexico are considered; along with the implementation of process intensification strategies for the separation train. Results show that the use of thermally coupled distillation sequences allows designing sustainable processes for the production of biojet fuel economically competitive with fossil jet fuel.

Process design, economic evaluation and life cycle assessment of jet fuel production from sugar cane residue

With the aim of diversifying energy supplies and mitigating the environmental impacts of the aviation sector, production of renewable jet fuels has recently received substantial attention. To this direction, this study deals with the techno‐economic design and life cycle assessment (LCA) of biojet fuel (farnesane) production from bagasse. Bagasse is the solid residue of sugar industries and its utilization within the biorefinery concept can positively contribute to the sustainable production of fuels. To this end, the present research proposes the production of farnesane from bagasse rather than edible feedstocks (e.g. sugarcane). Mass and energy balances were executed in SuperPro Designer software. The resultant mass yield was equal to 0.121 kg (jet fuel)/kg (dry bagasse) and an energy efficiency of 26.5% can be realized. Economic analysis suggested a gate price of 2.78 $/L. Cradle to grave GHG emissions reductions comparative to fossil jet fuel can be approximately 47%. Overall, the current sustainability analysis explores potential economics and environmental benefits for the lignocellulosic sugars pathway to biojet fuel. © 2017 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Environ Prog, 37: 1227–1235, 2018

Vibrational Spectroscopy and Thermophysical Properties of Ultralow Sulfur Diesel—Alternative Fuel Binary Blends

Four alternative fuels (AF) were blended with ultralow sulfur diesel (ULSD) at five different proportions (10, 20, 30, 50, and 100 vol % AF) to create 20 binary mixtures in this work. Two renewable jet AFs and two renewable diesel AFs were investigated. Interactions between the components in the mixtures were analyzed by means of spectroscopy (Raman, near-infrared), thermophysical (thermal diffusivity, thermo-optic coefficient), and physical (density) techniques. Correlations among the data were investigated using principal component analysis and partial least-squares regression. Trends in Raman intensities and band positions as well as thermophysical properties showed that the AF/ULSD blends resembled two-component mixtures despite the known complexities of the constituents. Specifically, spectra combined according to the percentages of the components in each mixture; thermophysical and physical properties exhibited similar behavior. The spectra showed strong correlations with all three physical properti...

Selective extraction of neutral lipid from wet algae paste and subsequently hydroconversion into renewable jet fuel

Abstract Wet algae paste, after harvested, was converted into renewable jet fuel through selective extraction and subsequent hydroconversion without further purification. A fractional extraction method based on ethanol and hexane starting from wet algae was firstly designed and investigated. The oil recovery was as high as 90 wt% of lipid after three extraction cycles. Such a method results in fractional extraction of polar lipid and neutral lipid separately from wet algal biomass. The obtained neutral lipid rich fraction has very low metal content, in which the Ca, Mg, and Cu contents are 2, 0, and 3 mg/kg, respectively. It can be converted into jet fuel range paraffin by one-step hydrocracking over Pt/Meso-ZSM-5 catalyst directly. The freeze point, flash point, and energy density of the obtained jet fuel are −57 °C, 42 °C, and 45 MJ/kg, respectively, which satisfies the ASTM 7566 standard and can be used as high quality jet fuel blend.

Techno-economic and resource analysis of hydroprocessed renewable jet fuel

BackgroundBiomass-derived jet fuel is an alternative jet fuel (AJF) showing promise of reducing the dependence on fossil fuel and greenhouse gas emissions. Hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) concept is also known as one of the pathways for producing bio jet fuel. HEFA fuel was approved by the American Society for Testing and Materials in 2011, and can be blended up to 50% with conventional jet fuel. Since then, several HEFA economic and life-cycle assessments have been published in literature. However, there have been limited analyses on feedstock availability, composition, and their impact on hydrocarbon yield (particularly jet blendstock yield) and overall process economics.ResultsThis study examines over 20 oil feedstocks, their geographic distribution and production levels, oil yield, prices, and chemical composition. The results of our compositional analysis indicate that most oils contain mainly C16 and C18 fatty acids except pennycress, yellow grease, and mustard, which contain higher values and thus would require hydrocracking to improve jet fuel production. Coconut oil has a large content of shorter carbon fatty acids, making it a good feedstock candidate for renewable gasoline instead of jet substitutes’ production. Techno-economic analysis (TEA) was performed for five selected oil feedstocks—camelina, pennycress, jatropha, castor bean, and yellow grease—using the HEFA process concept.ConclusionThe resource analysis indicates that oil crops currently grown in the United States (namely soybean) have relatively low oil yield when compared to oil crops grown in other parts of the world, such as palm, coconut, and jatropha. Also, non-terrestrial oil sources, such as animal fats and greases, have relatively lower prices than terrestrial oil crops. The minimum jet fuel selling price for these five resources ranges between $3.8 and $11.0 per gallon. The results of our TEA and resource studies indicate the key cost drivers for a biorefinery converting oil to jet hydrocarbons are as follows: oil price, conversion plant capacity, fatty acid profile, addition of hydrocracker, and type of hydroprocessing catalysts.

Techno-economic and environmental assessment of renewable jet fuel production in integrated Brazilian sugarcane biorefineries

The use of renewable jet fuel (RJF) in substitution to fossil jet fuel is one of the main initiatives towards the reduction of impacts derived from carbon emissions by airline operations. This study compares different routes for RJF production integrated with sugarcane biorefineries in Brazil. Eight scenarios with sugarcane mills annexed to three ASTM−approved RJF production technologies, i.e. Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA), Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis (FT), and Alcohol to Jet (ATJ), were assessed. Host mills were considered to crush four million tonnes of sugarcane/year and recover straw from the field. In the designed scenarios, HEFA routes processed palm, macauba, or soybean oils, while FT conversion was based on gasification of either sugarcane or eucalyptus lignocellulosic material, and ATJ converted isobutanol or ethanol into RJF. The biorefineries were assessed in terms of both economic and environmental performance, as well as towards their capability of substituting 5% of the consumption of jet fuel in Brazil in 2014 (equivalent to 375 million L/year). Considering the evaluated scenarios, HEFA-based biorefineries yielded the highest RJF production capacities: a single plant processing palm oil could supply 267 million L RJF/year (71% of the defined target). FT biorefineries presented the best economic performances, producing RJF at competitive cost but with a relatively low output. Finally, all conversion technologies were capable of producing RJF with low climate change impacts, with reductions of over 70% when benchmarked against fossil jet fuel. Carbon mitigation targets of the Brazilian aviation sector are further explored in this paper, showing the dimension of the effort in the coming years for fossil jet fuel replacement in commercial flights. The availability of sugarcane and other biomasses in the country makes Brazil a potentially important player for the deployment of large-scale projects with reasonable RJF market prices and reduced CO2 emissions for both internal and external markets.

Renewable jet fuel company Velocys shares jump 40% after British Airways deal

The ITER radial X-ray camera (RXC), which is installed in the middle diagnostics shield module (DSM) of equatorial port plug 12, is an important piece of diagnostic equipment in the tokamak system. A cooling circle is vital for RXC detectors because it can protect them from being damaged during the DSM baking phase when the temperature reaches 240 (±10)°C. Helium is used as a cooling medium in this cooling circle owing to its low activation and good heat exchange with copper. To increase the gas resistance and expand the heat transfer area, a labyrinth structure is introduced into the internal structural design of a heat exchanger. In this paper, an analysis of the heat load of the RXC and its cooling circle is presented, along with the thermal simulation and test results. Thermal simulation results indicate that the cooling circle design can meet the requirements. A test platform is built to validate the cooling circle design. The experimental results are presented, and the problems encountered during the testing are analyzed. The test results indicate that the maximum temperature of the detector is lower than 65 °C with the cooling circle during the platform baking phase, which is lower than the detector operation temperature limit of 75 °C.

Life-cycle energy, GHG and cost comparison of camelina-based biodiesel and biojet fuel

ABSTRACTCamelina (Camelina sativa) can be used to make biodiesel or biojet fuel. This study compares life-cycle energy, environmental impact and economic performance of making biodiesel versus biojet fuel from camelina oil. The data for camelina field production was obtained from a grower in western Washington, USA. Camelina seeds were crushed, and biodiesel and biojet fuel were produced at the University of Idaho's advanced biofuel research lab. Biodiesel was made via a transesterification reaction, and biojet was made using a technology called hydroprocessed renewable jet fuel. This research found that for a base-case scenario, where transportation and fuel additives were not needed, the ratio of energy in produced biofuel to its life-cycle energy was 3.6 for biodiesel and 1.8 for biojet fuel. Biodiesel reduced life-cycle GHG emissions by 69% compared to conventional diesel. In contrast, camelina biojet reduced GHG emissions by 56.6% compared to jet-A fuel. The cost of ingredients and utilities to make biodiesel was US 75¢/L compared to $2.19/L for biojet fuel taking no credit for byproducts. Considering the potential demand for biodiesel, the price of diesel, and price of jet fuel, it was concluded that biojet fuel is unlikely to compete economically with biodiesel in the foreseeable future.

Technoeconomic analysis of biojet fuel production from camelina at commercial scale: Case of Canadian Prairies

This study undertakes technoeconomic analysis of commercial production of hydro-processed renewable jet (HRJ) fuel from camelina oil in the Canadian Prairies. An engineering economic model designed in SuperPro Designer® investigated capital investment, scale, and profitability of producing HRJ and co-products (biodiesel, naphtha, LPG, and propane) based on biorefinery plant sizes of 112.5–675 million L annum−1. Under base case scenario, the minimum selling price (MSP) of HRJ was $1.06 L−1 for a biorefinery plant with size of 225 million L. However, it could range from $0.40 to $1.71 L−1 given variations in plant capacity, feedstock cost, and co-product credits. MSP is highly sensitive to camelina feedstock cost and co-product credits, with little sensitivity to capital cost, discount rate, plant capacity, and hydrogen cost. Marginal and average cost curves suggest the region could support an HRJ plant capacity of up to 675 million L annum−1 (capital investment of $167 million).

Biorefinery for combined production of jet fuel and ethanol from lipid‐producing sugarcane: a techno‐economic evaluation

AbstractReplacing fossil fuels with an economically viable green alternative at scale has proved most challenging in the aviation sector. Recently sugarcane, the most productive crop on the planet, has been engineered to accumulate lipids. This opens the way for production of far more industrial vegetable oil per acre than previously possible. This study performs techno‐economic feasibility analysis of jet fuel production from this new cost efficient and high yield feedstock. A comprehensive process model for biorefinery producing hydrotreated jet fuel (from lipids) and ethanol (from sugars), with 1 600 000 MT yr−1 lipid‐cane processing capacity, was developed in SuperPro Designer. Considering lipid‐cane development is continuing for higher oil concentrations, analysis was performed with lipid‐cane containing 5%, 10%, 15%, and 20% lipids. Capital investments for the biorefinery ranged from 238.1 to 351.2 million USD, with jet fuel capacities of 12.6–50.5 million liters (correspondingly ethanol production of nil to 102.6 million liters). The production cost of jet fuel for different scenarios was estimated $0.73 to $1.79 per liter ($2.74 to $6.76 per gal) of jet fuel. In all cases, the cost of raw materials accounted for more than 70% of total operational cost. Biorefinery was observed self‐sustainable for steam and electricity requirement, because of in‐house steam and electricity generation from burning of bagasse. Minimum fuel selling prices with a 10% discount rate for 20% lipid case was estimated $1.40/L ($5.31/gal), which was lower than most of the reported prices of renewable jet fuel produced from other oil crops and algae. Along with lower production costs, lipid‐cane could produce as high as 16 times the jet fuel (6307 L ha−1) per unit land than that of other oil crops and do so using low‐value land unsuited to most other crops, while being highly water and nitrogen use efficient.

Analysis of biomass hydrothermal liquefaction and biocrude-oil upgrading for renewable jet fuel production: The impact of reaction conditions on production costs and GHG emissions performance

This paper shows a detailed analysis of a biomass HTL process by considering changes in three main reaction variables (i.e. catalysts (water, Na2CO3(aq.), and Fe(aq.)), temperature (280–340 °C), and catalysts/biomass mass ratio (0–0.33 kg catalysts/kg biomass)), and by assessing their influence on the techno-economic and GHG emissions performance. This analysis is based on Aspen Plus® simulations, process economics and life-cycle GHG assessment on SimaPro (using Ecoinvent 2.2). Results showed that the lowest production cost for biocrude oil is achieved when HTL is performed at 340 °C with Fe as catalyst (450 €/tbiocrude-oil or 13.6 €/GJbiocrude-oil). At these conditions, the biocrude oil produced has an oxygen content of 16.6 wt% and a LHV of 33.1 MJ/kgbiocrude-oil. When the hydrotreatment and hydrogen generation units are included, the total production costs was 1040 €/tupgraded-oil or 0.8 €/Lupgraded-oil. After fractionation, the estimated production cost was 1086 €/tbiojet-fuel or 25.1 €/GJbiojet-fuel. This value is twice the commercial price of fossil jet fuel. However, the allocated life cycle GHG emissions for renewable jet fuel were estimated at 13.1 kgCO2-eq./GJbiojet-fuel, representing only 15% the GHG emission of fossil jet fuel and therefore, indicating a significant potential on GHG emission reduction.

The role of bioenergy and biochemicals in CO2 mitigation through the energy system – a scenario analysis for the Netherlands

AbstractBioenergy as well as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage are key options to embark on cost‐efficient trajectories that realize climate targets. Most studies have not yet assessed the influence on these trajectories of emerging bioeconomy sectors such as biochemicals and renewable jet fuels (RJFs). To support a systems transition, there is also need to demonstrate the impact on the energy system of technology development, biomass and fossil fuel prices. We aim to close this gap by assessing least‐cost pathways to 2030 for a number of scenarios applied to the energy system of the Netherlands, using a cost‐minimization model. The type and magnitude of biomass deployment are highly influenced by technology development, fossil fuel prices and ambitions to mitigate climate change. Across all scenarios, biomass consumption ranges between 180 and 760 PJ and national emissions between 82 and 178 Mt CO2. High technology development leads to additional 100–270 PJ of biomass consumption and 8–20 Mt CO2 emission reduction compared to low technology development counterparts. In high technology development scenarios, additional emission reduction is primarily achieved by bioenergy and carbon capture and storage. Traditional sectors, namely industrial biomass heat and biofuels, supply 61–87% of bioenergy, while wind turbines are the main supplier of renewable electricity. Low technology pathways show lower biochemical output by 50–75%, do not supply RJFs and do not utilize additional biomass compared to high technology development. In most scenarios the emission reduction targets for the Netherlands are not met, as additional reduction of 10–45 Mt CO2 is needed. Stronger climate policy is required, especially in view of fluctuating fossil fuel prices, which are shown to be a key determinant of bioeconomy development. Nonetheless, high technology development is a no‐regrets option to realize deep emission reduction as it also ensures stable growth for the bioeconomy even under unfavourable conditions.

Emissions characterization tests for hydrotreated renewable jet fuel from used cooking oil and its blends

Experimental trials have been conducted using an optical swirl burner to compare the heat release and emission profiles from the application of four different aviation fuel blends with changing inlet conditions. The mixtures comprised fossil Jet A-1 and a HRJ (Hydrotreated Renewable Jet fuel) batch produced from used cooking oil processing, and blended in discrete ratios. Changes in the produced emissions were quantified with varying combustor pressure and equivalence ratio, in addition to analysing the distribution of combustion heat release using OH∗ chemiluminescence, and monitoring operational rig temperatures. Results suggest the presence of HRJ can reduce emissions and lead to a more compacted and homogenous heat release zone, beneficial as localised hot-spots can lead to the generation of soot and thermal NOx. An increase in pressure was also shown to compact the flame brush at constant thermal power, due to density changes in the combustion air, and reduced bulk flow. The presented heat release distributions and experimental data are useful for the validation of numerical simulations, particularly for the use of alternative fuels. The work also highlights the correlation of flow/acoustic perturbations with heat release, crucial in characterising global combustion behaviour.

Life-cycle analysis of greenhouse gas emissions from renewable jet fuel production

BackgroundThe introduction of renewable jet fuel (RJF) is considered an important emission mitigation measure for the aviation industry. This study compares the well-to-wake (WtWa) greenhouse gas (GHG) emission performance of multiple RJF conversion pathways and explores the impact of different co-product allocation methods. The insights obtained in this study are of particular importance if RJF is included as an emission mitigation instrument in the global Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA).ResultsFischer–Tropsch pathways yield the highest GHG emission reduction compared to fossil jet fuel (86–104%) of the pathways in scope, followed by Hydrothermal Liquefaction (77–80%) and sugarcane- (71–75%) and corn stover-based Alcohol-to-Jet (60–75%). Feedstock cultivation, hydrogen and conversion inputs were shown to be major contributors to the overall WtWa GHG emission performance. The choice of allocation method mainly affects pathways yielding high shares of co-products or producing co-products which effectively displace carbon intensive products (e.g., electricity).ConclusionsRenewable jet fuel can contribute to significant reduction of aviation-related GHG emissions, provided the right feedstock and conversion technology are used. The GHG emission performance of RJF may be further improved by using sustainable hydrogen sources or applying carbon capture and storage. Based on the character and impact of different co-product allocation methods, we recommend using energy and economic allocation (for non-energy co-products) at a global level, as it leverages the universal character of energy allocation while adequately valuing non-energy co-products.

Process modeling of hydrodeoxygenation to produce renewable jet fuel and other hydrocarbon fuels

The focus of this work is to model the hydrodeoxygenation process to produce renewable jet fuel and co-products from low-input oilseeds, specifically camelina, carinata (non-edible oil) and used cooking oil (UCO), taking into account the fatty acid compositions by incorporating the stoichiometric hydrodeoxygenation reactions. This methodology provides insight into the effect of feedstock composition and hydrodeoxygenation reactions upon product yields, product distribution, hydrogen consumption and process utilities. The resulting product slates, hydrogen gas and utility demands are specific to each of the camelina, carinata and UCO feedstocks.The yield of kerosene-range alkanes ranged from 53 to 54% of the incoming oil, with 13–14% diesel range alkanes, 13–15% naphtha, and 7–9% liquefied petroleum gas, depending upon the fatty acid composition. The hydrogen consumption rate ranged from 26 to 30kg per tonne of incoming oil, depending upon the degree of bond unsaturation. Thermal energy demand is 2.8GJ/tonne oil when processing used cooking oil, versus 5.2 and 5.7GJ/tonne of oil for carinata and camelina, respectively, owing to the additional energy required for oil extraction. Electricity demand was 73kWh/tonne oil for UCO, versus 170 and 227kWh/tonne oil for carinata and camelina.

Financial analysis and risk assessment of hydroprocessed renewable jet fuel production from camelina, carinata and used cooking oil

This paper evaluates the financial viability of renewable jet fuel production, from two oilseed crops Camelina sativa (camelina) and Brassica carinata (carinata) and used cooking oil (UCO), by the hydrodeoxygenation pathway. A Monte Carlo analysis is performed to examine the robustness of the financial performance by taking into consideration key uncertain parameters, including capital cost, oil content of seeds, and prices of feedstocks, gas, electricity, water, meal co-product, and crude oil (indicator of fuel product prices). The Monte Carlo analysis revealed that under the conditions analyzed, the probabilities that the net present value would be positive are 29% for camelina, 18% for carinata and 8% for UCO, indicating that the three projects are risky for investors. Sensitivity analysis determined that the projects’ financial performance is highly sensitive to prices of fuel products and feedstocks. The impacts of two different hypothetical biofuel economic incentives were assessed: Carbon trading and tradable credits similar to the Renewable Identification Number (RIN). Income earned in the form of a RIN would have a large positive impact on the projects’ viabilities. By assuming an incentive of $0.20/L of renewable fuel, the probabilities that the NPV would be positive are 85% for camelina, 75% for carinata and 58% for UCO.