Abstract
AbstractBioenergy as well as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage are key options to embark on cost‐efficient trajectories that realize climate targets. Most studies have not yet assessed the influence on these trajectories of emerging bioeconomy sectors such as biochemicals and renewable jet fuels (RJFs). To support a systems transition, there is also need to demonstrate the impact on the energy system of technology development, biomass and fossil fuel prices. We aim to close this gap by assessing least‐cost pathways to 2030 for a number of scenarios applied to the energy system of the Netherlands, using a cost‐minimization model. The type and magnitude of biomass deployment are highly influenced by technology development, fossil fuel prices and ambitions to mitigate climate change. Across all scenarios, biomass consumption ranges between 180 and 760 PJ and national emissions between 82 and 178 Mt CO2. High technology development leads to additional 100–270 PJ of biomass consumption and 8–20 Mt CO2 emission reduction compared to low technology development counterparts. In high technology development scenarios, additional emission reduction is primarily achieved by bioenergy and carbon capture and storage. Traditional sectors, namely industrial biomass heat and biofuels, supply 61–87% of bioenergy, while wind turbines are the main supplier of renewable electricity. Low technology pathways show lower biochemical output by 50–75%, do not supply RJFs and do not utilize additional biomass compared to high technology development. In most scenarios the emission reduction targets for the Netherlands are not met, as additional reduction of 10–45 Mt CO2 is needed. Stronger climate policy is required, especially in view of fluctuating fossil fuel prices, which are shown to be a key determinant of bioeconomy development. Nonetheless, high technology development is a no‐regrets option to realize deep emission reduction as it also ensures stable growth for the bioeconomy even under unfavourable conditions.
Highlights
In line with long-term climate targets agreed upon at the 21st Conference of Parties in Paris (UNFCCC, 2015), the European Union (EU) set out to increase its renewable energy supply to 27% and to achieve 40% greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction by 2030 compared to 1990, towards a 80–95% reduction by 2050 (EC, 2015)
To obtain the necessary detail, we focus on the energy system of the Netherlands, which requires a significant transformation for the country to meet its renewable energy and GHG mitigation goals, in line with the EU targets (Roelofsen et al, 2016; Vuuren et al, 2016)
Final production from biomass and other renewable energy sources (RES), and their contribution to each sector are shown for the reference scenario in combination with the two technology development variants by bars (HighTechRef, LowTechRef), while the range of outcomes based on the biomass costsupply and fossil fuel price scenarios is indicated with whiskers (Fig. 4)
Summary
In line with long-term climate targets agreed upon at the 21st Conference of Parties in Paris (UNFCCC, 2015), the European Union (EU) set out to increase its renewable energy supply to 27% and to achieve 40% greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction by 2030 compared to 1990, towards a 80–95% reduction by 2050 (EC, 2015). Other studies show 15–17% of total biomass to be used for nonenergy applications (18–27 EJ yrÀ1) and to supply approximately 7–11 EJ yrÀ1 of global nonenergy biomass products (Daioglou et al, 2015) In other sectors, such as aviation, the EU has the ambition to reach 88 PJ (2 Mt, assuming 44 GJ tÀ1 heating value) renewable jet fuel (RJF) consumption, which is about 3.7% of its projected jet fuel demand by 2020 (EC, 2003, 2011). Based on Rose et al (2014), modern bioenergy supply may reach 37% (or up to about 250 PJ) over total primary energy supply by 2050 and is largely combined with BECCS Despite these expectations, comprehensive assessments of extended bioeconomy sectors (i.e. aviation, chemicals) in energy system models, interactions with other renewable energy sources (RES; e.g. wind or solar) and mitigation technologies (i.e. CCS, BECCS) at a national or regional level, are scarce
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