Regional Security Research Articles

Exploring the ecological security evaluation of water resources in the Yangtze River Basin under the background of ecological sustainable development

The Yangtze River (hereafter referred to as the YZR), the largest river in China, is of paramount importance for ensuring water resource security. The Yangtze River Basin (hereafter referred to as the YRB) is one of the most densely populated areas in China, and complex human activities have a significant impact on the ecological security of water resources. Therefore, this paper employs theories related to ecological population evolution and the Driving Force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) model to construct an indicator system for the ecological security of water resources in the YRB. The report evaluates the ecological security status of water resources in each province of the YRB from 2010 to 2019, clarifies the development trend of its water resource ecological security, and proposes corresponding strategies for regional ecological security and coordinated economic development. According to the results of the ecological population evolution competition model, the overall indicator of the ecological security of water resources in the YRB continues to improve, with the safety level increasing annually. Maintaining sound management of water resources in the YRB is crucial for sustainable socioeconomic development. To further promote the ecological security of water resources in the YRB and the coordinated development of the regional economy, this paper proposes policy suggestions such as promoting the continuous advancement of sustainable development projects, actively adjusting industrial structure, continuously enhancing public environmental awareness, and actively participating in international ecological construction and seeking cooperation among multiple departments.

Observed changes in the climate and snow dynamics of the Third Pole

The Third Pole (TP) is the world’s largest highland and has one of the biggest reservoirs of glacier ice mass and snow cover on the Earth. Three major Asian rivers (the Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra) are nourished by the melting of glaciers and snow in Central Himalaya, which are inevitable for the socioeconomic sustainability and water security of South Asia. Here, we investigate the long-term (1980–2020) changes in snow depth and precipitation in TP, where major precipitation occurs in the form of rainfall in summer, and snowfall in winter and spring. The seasonal mean snow depth is deep (≥1 m) in winter and shallow (≤0.2 m) in summer. The average snowmelt and snow water equivalent are higher in the central and western Himalaya and Karakoram ranges in spring, which are the regions with most glaciers in TP. There is a significant positive trend in total precipitation, about 0.01–0.03 mm d−1 yr−1 in the central and eastern TP during the South Asian Summer Monsoon for the 1980–2020 period. Snowmelt is also increasing (>0.5 × 10−3 mm yr−1) in the western Himalaya during spring, which is consistent with the temperature rise (0.04–0.06 °C yr−1) there. In addition, there is a notable increase in the annual mean glacier melt (here, the water equivalent thickness) in TP (−1 to −5 cm w.e. yr−1), with its highest values in the eastern and central Himalaya (−3 to −5 cm w.e. yr−1), as estimated for the period 2003–2020. On top of these, by the end of the 21st century, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) projections show that there would be a significant decrease in snow depth and an increase in temperature of TP in all shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Henceforth, the increasing trend in temperature and melting of snow/glaciers in TP would be a serious threat to the regional climate, water security and livelihood of the people of South Asia.

Topical dynamics of terrorism from a global perspective and a call for action on global risk

Research on terrorism is a sensitive and critical aspect globally from a security perspective that calls for an action policy. Since 9/11, terrorism has been considered a high risk or a disaster for global governance without geographical exceptions. Its association with political and economic and the severity of causalities it causes leaves a worrisome and long-lasting impact on global cohesion and peacefulness, just like a natural disaster would. This study unveils the political and policy measures, public expenditures, and likely external intervention determinants and their association with terrorism in the panel data of 151 countries from 2012 to 2022. The statistics of SGMM say that political stability is the most impactful and significant factor in reducing terrorism globally. External intervention from political agencies and economic forces is the second-most influential factor in mitigating terrorism incidents. The study further observes that the effectiveness of counter-terrorism measures and policy implementation has proven less impactful in mitigating terrorism. The innovative findings of this study state that government expenditures toward basic facilities are impactful in deterring terrorism but do not have a significant role in global analysis. The study recommends that the EU and America should collaborate and work on Asian and African regional security, rather than invade state security and sovereignty as part of their collective measures of counter-terrorism. A collaborative effort helps eradicate external evil forces or groups and sustain the state and global peace.

Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict on International Staple Agrifood Trade Networks.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is a growing concern worldwide and poses serious threats to regional and global food security. Using monthly trade data for maize, rice, and wheat from 2016/1 to 2023/12, this paper constructs three international crop trade networks and an aggregate international food trade network. We aim to examine the structural changes following the occurrence of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. We find significant shifts in the number of edges, average in-degree, density, and efficiency in the third quarter of 2022, particularly in the international wheat trade network. Additionally, we have shown that political reasons have caused more pronounced changes in the trade connections between the economies of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and Russia than with Ukraine. This paper could provide insights into the negative impact of geopolitical conflicts on the global food system and encourage a series of effective strategies to mitigate the negative impact of the conflict on global food trade.

Риски в направлениях сетевого взаимодействия в области обеспечения региональной экономической безопасности

The article is a study of the issue of risks in the directions of network communication cross providing regional economic safety. A definition of risk and networking is presented. The connection between network communication and the cluster as a factor in sustainable and innovative economic development is shown. An overview of the definition of clusters is given. Regional management, as part of the public management, is aimed at overcoming crisis situations in various areas. The authors pay attention to the digital transformation of the economy and name individual risks that are conduits to the destabilization of regional economic security. The consolidated influence of the state and cluster process participants have a positive effect on the formation of conditions for economic safety. The article makes an attempt to identify the impulses of the impact of network communication for stable regional sustainability and economic safety.

Shape-shifters, chameleons and recognitional politics: The asset management industry and financial regulation

The asset management industry is becoming a systemic feature of global finance, yet has evaded regulators’ efforts to designate its largest firms as systemically important institutions. How has this been achieved? We use as our example BlackRock’s running commentary on the evolving plans of both prudential (banking) and securities (market) regulators in the period from 2008 to 2018. We show how asset managers engaged in successful recognitional politics, based on a decade-long struggle to influence how they were seen across the regulatory divide. James C. Scott’s most recent thoughts on legibility codes provide us with our conceptual language of shape-shifters and chameleons. Two distinct strategies were simultaneously in play. As a shape-shifter, BlackRock repeatedly changed form in its self-presentation to prudential regulators concerned with systemic risk, so they could not be certain what they were looking at. As a chameleon, it invited securities regulators to maintain their authority over the asset management industry, so it could increasingly blend into the supposedly safe category of market-based finance.

Examining the Impact of Regional Integration on Peace and Security in East African Community

Attempts at regionalization and integration are increasingly viewed as offering chances for guaranteeing peace, stability, and sustained economic growth in the face of Africa’s numerous security concerns. As a result, organizations dedicated to regional integration and cooperation, like EAC, are beginning to take on the role of conflict resolution experts in their particular areas. Therefore, this study’s primary goal was to evaluate how regional integration contributes to African peace and security. In particular, the study was conducted to determine the various missions that EAC members carried out to restore peace and security in member nations, as well as to assess the effects of various policies created by the EAC to address peace and security concerns among member states. Furthermore, this study exclusively used secondary data. From online books, articles, reports, conference papers, magazines other research papers and assess the effects of the various policies that the East Asian Community (EAC) established to address issues of peace and security among its member states. Additionally, the missions that the EAC members carried out to help member states that needed to regain peace and security and were affiliated with the East were reviewed. Furthermore, it was discovered that regional integration had the subsequent implications for security and peace: strengthened domestic peacekeeping forces by means of regional collaboration; provided members with monetary assistance to sustain peace and security; and made it simple to obtain support and assistance from non-member nations in emergency situations. East Africa is now united as a result of the EAC’s formation. But the EAC still has certain obstacles to the advancement of peace and security as well as regional integration. For instance, it was discovered that certain states are not fully dedicated to regional peace and security strategies, and it was also mentioned that a shortage of resources and training is one of the challenges to implementing peace. for these reasons I would recommend that members states pay on time their contribution, members states should be committed to the agenda of the community a finally, states should resolve conflicts between and among themselves.

Determining arsenic stress tolerance genes in rice (Oryza sativa L.) via genomic insights and QTL mapping with double haploid lines

Arsenic, a hazardous heavy metal with potent carcinogenic properties, significantly affects key rice-producing regions worldwide. In this study, we present a quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping investigation designed to identify candidate genes responsible for conferring tolerance to arsenic toxicity in rice (Oryza sativa L.) during the seedling stage. This study identified 17 QTLs on different chromosomes, including qCHC-1 and qCHC-3 on chromosome 1 and 3 related to chlorophyll content and qRFW-12 on chromosome 12 related to root fresh weight. Gene expression analysis revealed eight candidate genes exhibited significant upregulation in the resistant lines, OsGRL1, OsDjB1, OsZIP2, OsMATE12, OsTRX29, OsMADS33, OsABCG29, and OsENODL24. These genes display sequence alignment and phylogenetic tree similarities with other species and engaging in protein-protein interactions with significant proteins. Advanced gene-editing techniques such as CRISPR-Cas9 to precisely target and modify the candidate genes responsible for arsenic tolerance will be explore. This approach may expedite the development of arsenic-resistant rice cultivars, which are essential for ensuring food security in regions affected by arsenic-contaminated soil and water.

Трудовая миграция в российских регионах в контексте обеспечения экономической безопасности

In the accepted understanding of the role of labor migration as a leading factor in ensuring the economic security of Russia and its regions, it is necessary to proceed from the content of migration as a complex, multidimensional phenomenon, characterized by multidirectional and contradictory dynamics of the processes occurring in it. In conditions of geopolitical and macroeconomic instability, the diagnosis of these processes is updated in connection with sharp structural shifts in labor migration and changes in their influence on the economic security of Russian regions and the country. Based on a structural-dynamic analysis made with the use of official statistical information, the dynamics and effectiveness of the processes accompanying labor migration and their impact on the economic security of Russia, its regions, and macro-regions were identified. The main trends in labor migration at the macro level are the predominance of internal migration flows over external ones against the negative increase in labor migrants from countries outside the CIS countries and the reorientation of labor flows to other countries; changes in the sectoral structure of migration; and the high share and growth of illegal migration. At the meso level, there is a high level of differentiation in labor migration flows and, as a result, their ambiguous impact on the economic security of Russian macro-regions and their constituent entities. The main factors hindering the positive impact of labor migration on the economic security of the regions of the Southern Federal District are differences in their sectoral specialization; the state of social infrastructure, education, and healthcare; level of employment; environmental and climatic living conditions; composition and structure of the population; and quality of life. The solution to the problems of labor migration in the Southern Federal District, which can ensure an increase in the migration attractiveness of the territories of the macro-region, lies, first of all, in the growth and balance of the quality of life of the population in the regions of the Southern Federal District, increasing the effectiveness of the state regional industrial and social policy, and strengthening the place and role of migration policy in long-term programs of regional development.

UZBEKISTAN’S STRATEGIC APPROACHES OF TO THE SHANGHAIS COOPERATION ORGANIZATION: EXPLORING OPPORTUNITIES FOR “MIDDLE POWER” DIPLOMACY

The article studies the key factors (security, geopolitics, economy) that directly impact the strategy of the Republic of Uzbekistan towards the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). It is revealed that this strategy always has been based on following priorities: (1) ensuring national and regional security in Central Asia (2) preserving independence in foreign policy (3) balancing the interests of major powers in Central Asia (4) preventing hegemony of a single state or a group of states within the SCO (5) using the SCO to implement Uzbekistan's priorities in trade, economy and transport interconnectivity. Due to the current transformation of the SCO and intensification of geopolitical competition among its major members the necessity of applying middle-power diplomacy within the Organization has been identified. Uzbekistan's potential to conduct «middle power diplomacy" in the SCO has been justified.

Asymmetric relations and systemic misperceptions: Why and how Australia and China talk past each other

Caught by conflicts, both Australia and China exhibited confused attitudes towards each other’s motives. For China, despite the common interests of strong economic and trade complementarities, Australia acts as a vassal state of the USA, campaigning against China for no reason. For Canberra, it has been frustrated by China’s ignorance of Australia’s independent position and concerns. This article explores the fundamental cause behind this misperception, arguing that asymmetric relationships lead two countries to put their attention on different levels, generating misinterpretations from both sides. As a great power, China concentrates on worldwide competition with the USA and prioritizes its global strategy while underplaying concerns of Australia. However, in Australia’s agenda, regional security and China’s expansion deepened its anxiety, so its over-attention spotlighted Beijing’s moves in a sensitive scenario. The asymmetry exacerbates each other’s threats. The article provides a systematic explanation of the China–Australia tension and clarifies the mechanism behind asymmetric relations.

Predicting China’s Maize Yield Using Multi-Source Datasets and Machine Learning Algorithms

A timely and accurately predicted grain yield can ensure regional and global food security. The scientific community is gradually advancing the prediction of regional-scale maize yield. However, the combination of various datasets while predicting the regional-scale maize yield using simple and accurate methods is still relatively rare. Here, we have used multi-source datasets (climate dataset, satellite dataset, and soil dataset), lasso algorithm, and machine learning methods (random forest, support vector, extreme gradient boosting, BP neural network, long short-term memory network, and K-nearest neighbor regression) to predict China’s county-level maize yield. The use of multi-sourced datasets advanced the predicting accuracy of maize yield significantly compared to the single-sourced dataset. We found that the machine learning methods were superior to the lasso algorithm, while random forest, extreme gradient boosting, and support vector machine represented the most preferable methods for maize yield prediction in China (R2 ≥ 0.75, RMSE = 824–875 kg/ha, MAE = 626–651 kg/ha). The climate dataset contributed more to the prediction of maize yield, while the satellite dataset contributed to tracking the maize growth process. However, the methods’ accuracies and the dominant variables affecting maize growth varied with agricultural regions across different geographic locations. Our research serves as an important effort to examine the feasibility of multi-source datasets and machine learning techniques for regional-scale maize yield prediction. In addition, the methodology we have proposed here provides guidance for reliable yield prediction of different crops.

Cyanide in cassava: Understanding the drivers, impacts of climate variability, and strategies for food security

AbstractThe consumption of cassava, a vital staple food for more than 1 billion people worldwide, holds particular significance in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA). Expansion in cassava production in SSA is driven by increasing market demand, local consumption, and adaptability to diverse environments. However, cyanide concentration in cassava tubers and products across SSA ranges from 9 to 1148 ppm – most exceed the World Health Organisation's recommended safe level of 10 ppm. Such variation and high cyanide concentrations in cassava products are expected to be exacerbated by climate‐induced increases in the frequency, intensity and occurrence of drought, heat waves and biotic stresses, further jeopardising regional food security. Thus, it is essential to examine cassava production and cyanide toxicity under climate change and their implications for food security in SSA. In this review, we look at the drivers of cassava production and spatial variation in cyanide concentrations across SSA, impacts of climate variability and biotic stresses on cassava cyanide concentrations in SSA, and crop management practices for reducing cyanogenic glucosides in cassava tubers. We surmise that urgent actions are required to adopt improved cassava varieties and management strategies that reduce cassava cyanide toxicity amid climate‐induced challenges in SSA.

Based on the Security Control of Pumped Storage Hydropower under Extreme Fault Conditions after Grid Connection

Abstract As an important part of the new energy grid connection, pumped storage hydropower plays an important role in black start, frequency modulation and phase modulation, peak shaving and valley filling, energy storage and accident reserve. In order to ensure the security and stability of the power system under extreme fault conditions after the pumped storage hydropower is connected to the grid, it is particularly important to configure reasonable security and stability control measures. Based on the development status and operation characteristics of pumped storage hydropower stations at home and abroad, considering the need of system security and stability control, this paper takes a pumped storage hydropower station in Southwest China as an example to simulate and analyze the transient characteristics of the pumped storage hydropower after grid connection. In view of the possible extreme fault conditions, a regional security control system is designed, and the configuration, control measures and strategies of the security control device on the pumping side are studied.

China's Geostrategic Interests in the Indian Ocean Region: Implications for Regional Security and Sino- Indian Relations

Over the last decade, China has increased its footprint and economic power in the Indian Ocean by expanding its influence there. Critical concerns in the Indian Ocean pose a danger to regional security, according to this research. Realist theoryassesses China's economic and military achievements. There is a real possibility that unchecked Chinese development into the Indian Ocean would turn the entire ocean into a "Chinese lake," opening up trade along the Maritime Silk Road. A coalition of impacted and compatible governments is necessary to safeguard maritime interests against China's aggressiveness. The mixed approach employed literature and survey data for qualitative and quantitative research. Basic random sampling was used to sample 150 Lahore residents. Those who are active in policymaking and marine governance are the target audience for these findings, which are meant to educate them on the geopolitical shifts and what they represent for the future of the sector.

Vietnam’s Marine Environmental Security: Cross-Border Challenges and Vietnam concept

Background and objective: Since beginning of the 21st century, security in the South China Sea/East Vietnam Sea has emerged as a big problem with degraded maritime environment and serious impacts on the global and regional security and development. Because of territorial disputes and competition among countries, marine environmental security has become an increasingly complicated issue with growing challenges. However, there is no effective coordination mechanism for this problem, thus countries and international organizations must further promote cooperation to make contribution to peace and sustainable development in the South China Sea region. Vietnam is a littoral country in the South China Sea/ East Vietnam Sea with large sea area and 28 coastal provinces and cities. Marine environmental security is closely linked to the development and prosperity of the country. Currently, Vietnam has faced many challenges, such as natural disasters, degraded marine environment, marine plastic waste, sea level rise and many cross-border challenges.Methods: Approaching from the perspective of non-traditional security, especially marine environmental security, on the basis of analyzing the current state of the marine environment, a number of factors and issues raised for Vietnam, for other countries, parties...the author explains the need to raise awareness, develop plans and carry out many actions, especially cooperation between countries and parties to protect the environment.Results: Environmental security in the South China Sea is facing challenges such as natural disasters, marine environmental degradation, loss of ecosystems and biodiversity, ocean plastic waste, rising sea levels and many more. Transboundary environmental issues, Marine environmental security is affected by many factors such as climate change, natural disasters, etc., but the "man-made" factor - caused by humans accounts for more. Peace and security in the South China Sea are common interests of the region and the world. South China Sea security is complex and multi-layered, with unpredictable developments. Vietnam is making efforts to address the challenges of marine environmental security, however, cross-border challenges are bigger. Marine environmental security requires cooperation from countries, international and regional organizations.Conclusion: Vietnam is proactively and actively addressing marine environmental security challenges, participating in international cooperation to resolve marine environmental security issues. Marine Environmental Security in South China Sea is required that all parties raise their awareness and actively take action towards sustainable development. Establishing the South China Sea Environmental Security Forum chaired by the United Nations or ASEAN is an urgent need.

A Deep Learning‐Based Data Assimilation Approach to Characterizing Coastal Aquifers Amid Non‐Linearity and Non‐Gaussianity Challenges

AbstractSeawater intrusion (SI) poses a substantial threat to water security in coastal regions, where numerical models play a pivotal role in supporting groundwater management and protection. However, the inherent heterogeneity of coastal aquifers introduces significant uncertainties into SI predictions, potentially diminishing their effectiveness in management decisions. Data assimilation (DA) offers a solution by integrating various types of observational data with the model to characterize heterogeneous coastal aquifers. Traditional DA techniques, like ensemble smoother using the Kalman formula (ESK) and Markov chain Monte Carlo, face challenges when confronted with the non‐linearity, non‐Gaussianity, and high‐dimensionality issues commonly encountered in aquifer characterization. In this study, we introduce a novel DA approach rooted in deep learning (DL), referred to as ESDL, aimed at effectively characterizing coastal aquifers with varying levels of heterogeneity. We systematically investigate a range of factors that impact the performance of ESDL, including the number and types of observations, the degree of aquifer heterogeneity, the structure and training options of the DL models. Our findings reveal that ESDL excels in characterizing heterogeneous aquifers under non‐linear and non‐Gaussian conditions. Comparison between ESDL and ESK under different experimentation settings underscores the robustness of ESDL. Conversely, in certain scenarios, ESK displays noticeable biases in the characterization results, especially when measurement data from non‐linear and discontinuous processes are used. To optimize the efficacy of ESDL, attention must be given to the design of the DL model and the selection of observational data, which are crucial to ensure the universal applicability of this DA method.

Dynamic Monitoring of Poyang Lake Water Area and Storage Changes from 2002 to 2022 via Remote Sensing and Satellite Gravimetry Techniques

The monitoring of Poyang Lake water area and storage changes using remote sensing and satellite gravimetry techniques is valuable for maintaining regional water resource security and addressing the challenges of global climate change. In this study, remote sensing datasets from Landsat images (Landsat 5, 7, 8 and 9) and three Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Gravity Follow-on (GRACE-FO) mascon solutions were jointly used to evaluate the water area and storage changes in response to global and regional climate changes. The results showed that seasonal characteristics existed in the terrestrial water storage (TWS) and water area changes of Poyang Lake, with nearly no significant long-term trend, for the period from April 2002 to December 2022. Poyang Lake exhibited the largest water area in June and July every year and then demonstrated a downward trend, with relatively smaller water areas in January and November, confirmed by the estimated TWS changes. For the flood (August 2010) and drought (September 2022) events, the water area changes are 3032 km2 and 813.18 km2, with those estimated TWS changes 17.37 cm and −17.46 cm, respectively. The maximum and minimum Poyang Lake area differences exceeded 2700 km2. The estimated terrestrial water storage changes in Poyang Lake derived from the three GRACE/GRACE-FO mascon solutions agreed well, with all correlation coefficients higher than 0.92. There was a significant positive correlation higher than 0.75 between the area and TWS changes derived from the two independent monitoring techniques. Therefore, it is reasonable to conclude that combined remote sensing with satellite gravimetric techniques can better interpret the response of Poyang Lake to climate change from the aspects of water area and TWS changes more efficiently.

Analyzing the Russo-Ukrainian Conflict: Geopolitical Insecurities of Russia and Their Consequences in Eurasia

This research delves into the geographical and historical factors underpinning the Russia-Ukraine war, exploring Russia's expansive strategies and the role of geography in its foreign policy. It highlights the conflict's extensive implications across the Eurasian region, manifesting in crises like global food and energy shortages, and shifting geopolitical alliances. By examining Russia's defensive maneuvers against Western influences, the study offers insights into the complex dynamics of regional security, the motivations behind Russia's foreign policies, and the broader impacts of the war on global stability. Recommendations focus on diplomatic resolutions to mitigate the conflict's repercussions.

BORDERLINE TRADE: UNRAVELING SMUGGLING DYNAMICS IN RANTAU PANJANG, KELANTAN

Malaysia, bordering Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore and Brunei are exposed to illicit trading. This paper explores the phenomenon of smuggling activities within the border area of Rantau Panjang, Kelantan. Utilizing a convenience sampling method, data was gathered from five neighboring villages near the border of Rantau Panjang and Sungai Golok. The analysis focused on the factors contributing to smuggling activities and found an interesting result. The study highlights the complex interplay of socio-economic and regulatory factors that underpin the prevalence of smuggling in the region. By addressing these multifaceted challenges, policymakers and stakeholders can work towards devising comprehensive strategies to mitigate the adverse impacts of smuggling and promote regional security and prosperity. Overall, the study underscores the importance of a holistic approach to tackling smuggling activities in the border area of Rantau Panjang, Kelantan.