Regression Discontinuity Research Articles

The role of household energy consumption behavior in environmental policy outcomes —the case of driving restriction policy in zhengzhou

The evaluation of the environmental effects of the driving restriction policy often sparks widespread discussions in the literature due to its complex and controversial assessment methods. Fewer studies have delved into the exploration of household energy consumption behavior, the role played by the targeted subjects of policy implementation, and the policy's impact on climate change. This paper focuses on the case of Zhengzhou, a city in China, to thoroughly discuss the formulation process of the driving restriction policy. By utilizing publicly available statistical data and conducting surveys among 795 households, this research employs statistical methods such as regression discontinuity, difference-in-differences estimation, and improved causal stepwise regression to quantitatively estimate the environmental consequences of the driving restriction policy. It also examines the impact of changes in residents' consumption behavior on policy effects and climate change under this policy shock. The study aims at bridging the gap between environmental policy effects, individual behavior changes, and climate change research. Our findings indicate that the driving restriction policy is effective in the short term, significantly improving air quality. However, due to the stickiness of residents' household consumption behavior and the adaptive adjustments in long-term travel behavior, the pollution-reducing effects of the policy gradually weaken and even exacerbate air pollution, resulting in an additional increase of approximately 147,950 tons of carbon dioxide emissions after the policy had been implemented for nine months. Therefore, this paper further suggests that implementing environmental policies requires close coordination with adjustments in household energy consumption behavior.

How does air pollution damage residents’ well-being? The evidence from China

ABSTRACT Air pollution is a prevalent environmental problem facing the world, critically threatening the well-being of human beings. Using the China Genuine Progress indicator Survey dataset, we investigate the impact of air pollution on residents’ well-being in China, and discuss the influencing mechanisms based on the theory of hierarchy of needs. As distinct winter heating policies cause different concentrations of air pollutants across the Qinling-Huaihe line in China, we construct a regression discontinuity design to identify the causal relationship. The results show that air pollution significantly damages residents’ well-being. If annual average air quality index increases by 50 units, residents’ happiness will fall by about 1.774 units. The mechanism analysis shows that air pollution reduces individual utility through increasing residents’ daily expenditure to meet their low-level needs while reducing consumptions for higher-level needs, namely the so-called ‘consumption downgrade’. Heterogeneity analysis shows that residents with higher education levels, middle-income level, longer commute time, and stronger public awareness are more affected by air pollution. In sum, policymakers should highlight the impact of the environment on people’s subjective well-being and formulate appropriate intervention policies to alleviate adverse demographic changes that may harm the sustainable development.

Understanding the Unintended Effects of Human-Machine Moderation in Addressing Harassment within Online Communities

ABSTRACT We set out to explore the unintended effects of human-machine moderation in mitigating harassment within online communities. We examine communities that use a block-list type bot to prevent harassment from the source of harassment. Drawing from social categorization and selective exposure theories, we theorize that employing a machine alongside humans for community moderation will create unintended adverse effects. Specifically, within the moderated focal community, we hypothesize an emboldening effect characterized by an increase in harassment among community members directed at their outgroup members. Additionally, we expect a disengaging effect, that is, a downward trend in the focal community’s membership. Finally, in neighboring communities that share the same topic of discussion, we expect a spillover effect, that is, an increase in harassment. Employing Detoxify, a Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT)-based model, we evaluate harassment scores in the focal community by analyzing 4 million Reddit comments across various communities. These scores serve as inputs for Bayesian Structural Time Series analysis, revealing evidence for both disengaging and spillover effects. For the emboldening effect, we use community-specific keywords in a predefined computer-assisted document classification approach, Keyword Assisted Topic Model (keyATM), to identify the target of harassment. We use mean comparison and regression discontinuity to assess the change in the level of harassment targeting outgroup members before and after the human-machine moderation implementation.

Extended Postpartum Medicaid In Colorado Associated With Increased Treatment For Perinatal Mood And Anxiety Disorders.

Perinatal mood and anxiety disorders (PMAD), a leading cause of perinatal morbidity and mortality, affect approximately one in seven births in the US. To understand whether extending pregnancy-related Medicaid eligibility from sixty days to twelve months may increase the use of mental health care among low-income postpartum people, we measured the effect of retaining Medicaid as a low-income adult on mental health treatment in the postpartum year, using a "fuzzy" regression discontinuity design and linked all-payer claims data, birth records, and income data from Colorado from the period 2014-19. Relative to enrolling in commercial insurance, retaining postpartum Medicaid enrollment was associated with a 20.5-percentage-point increase in any use of prescription medication or outpatient mental health treatment, a 16.0-percentage-point increase in any use of prescription medication only, and a 7.3-percentage-point increase in any use of outpatient mental health treatment only. Retaining postpartum Medicaid enrollment was also associated with $40.84 lower out-of-pocket spending per outpatient mental health care visit and $3.24 lower spending per prescription medication for anxiety or depression compared with switching to commercial insurance. Findings suggest that extending postpartum Medicaid eligibility may be associated with higher levels of PMAD treatment among the low-income postpartum population.

Ridesourcing regulation and traffic speeds: A New York case

Since 2019, New York City has enacted laws restricting ridesourcing services. This study investigates these regulations' impact on traffic using street-level speed records. We used a regression discontinuity design to compare weekly traffic speeds immediately before and after regulations. We find that the for-hire-vehicle driver application freeze, implemented in April 2019, significantly boosted street speeds in the immediate run. The effect varied widely across boroughs, road types, and built environment characteristics. Further evidence suggests a post-policy reduction in ridesourcing supply, indicating that the policy primarily impacted ridesourcing companies' scale and operations. However, the speed improvement appears to be temporary. Our findings offer valuable insights for crafting regulations targeting new urban mobility forms.

The effect of regime change on entrepreneurship: A real options approach with evidence from US gubernatorial elections

Although political turnover is said to be a healthy component of the business environment, the literature is equivocal about the effects of regime change on early-stage entrepreneurial activity. I present incumbent displacement—the electoral defeat of an incumbent political party's candidate—as a source of regime change, and I analyze how this affects business formation through the lens of real options theory. I test my theory using US gubernatorial elections from 2004 to 2022, leveraging a Regression Discontinuity design to compare changes in business formation trends following elections where a challenger party candidate wins or loses by a close margin. I find that regime change reduces venture creation activity for growth-oriented ventures specifically. I also find evidence of a partial rebound in subsequent months—suggestive that some entrepreneurs delay entry while others permanently abandon their ventures.

Reduced disclosure and default risk: analysis of smaller reporting companies

We examine the causal effect of reduced disclosure levels on the risk of default. Employing regression discontinuity (RD) design as our main identification strategy and the smaller reporting company rule (SRC rule) as the exogenous source of variation, we show that smaller reporting companies (SRCs), which are permitted to provide scaled disclosures in their 10-Ks, experience significantly and economically higher default risk. We demonstrate that, while there is no effect of information loss if a smaller reporting company voluntarily maintains its disclosure level by continuing to report its financial performance in full, there is an increase in its default risk due to the loss of commitment to mandatory disclosure. We also find that, compared to previously qualified SRCs, newly qualified smaller reporting companies face steeper increases in bankruptcy risk during their first year of eligibility. Our analysis indicates that strong external oversight mechanisms, better corporate governance, and credible audit quality attenuate the negative impact of reduced disclosure levels on the risk of default. Our results are robust to alternative model specifications, RD design assumptions, and measures of default risk.

Impact of higher capital buffers on banks’ lending and risk-taking in the short- and medium-term: Evidence from the euro area experiments

We study the impact of higher capital buffers on bank lending and risk-taking behaviour, at different time horizons following the initial policy decision. Employing a regression discontinuity design and confidential centralised supervisory data for euro area banks from 2014 to 2017, our research uniquely explores the effects of the EU policy on other systemically important institutions (O-SIIs) through a quasi-randomised experiment, exploiting the induced policy change and discontinuity of the O-SII identification process. Our findings show that the introduction of the O-SII buffers resulted in a short-term reduction in credit supply to households and financial sector, followed by a medium-term shift towards less risky borrowers, particularly in the household sector. We find a temporary cut in loan growth post-capital hikes, succeeded by a rebound in the medium-term. Our results substantiate the hypothesis that higher capital buffers can positively discipline banks by reducing risk-taking in the medium-term. At the same time, evidence suggests a limited adverse impact on the real economy, characterised by a temporary reduction in credit supply restricted to instances of macroprudential policy tightening.

Firms as tax collectors

We show that delegating tax collection duties to large firms can bolster tax capacity in weak-enforcement settings. We exploit two reforms in Argentina that dramatically expanded and subsequently reduced turnover tax withholding by firms. Combining firm-to-firm data with regression discontinuity and difference-in-differences methods centered on revenue eligibility thresholds, we find that: (i) appointing large firms as collection agents (CAs) does not hinder their economic activity, (ii) it leads to a significant increase in self-reported sales and tax payments among CAs’ business partners, (iii) these effects are primarily concentrated among downstream firms that lack a traceable paper trail, and (iv) reductions in withholding lead to a decrease in self-reported sales, albeit to a lesser extent. Tax-collecting firms can thus help boost tax compliance and revenue.

The Spillover Effects of the Spouse's Retirement on Depression: Evidence From Chinese Middle-Aged and Older Adult Couples.

The present study expands on previous research by examining whether the spouse's retirement affects individual depression both directly, by the changes in individual health investment, and indirectly, through the social interaction effect of the couples' depression. Using the panel data from the 2010-2018 China Family Panel Studies, we investigate the direct and indirect spillover effects of the spouse's retirement on depression among Chinese urban-worker couples (men aged 50-70, women aged 40-60; n = 10,466). To address the potential endogeneity and reflect the social interaction effect of the couples' depression, we combine the Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity method with simultaneous equations. Overall, a spouse's retirement would improve an individual's depression, with the direct spillover dominating compared to the indirect spillover. Gender heterogeneity indicates that husbands' depression is improved by wives' retirement mainly because husbands might receive more healthcare and companionship provided by their retired wives, while wives' depression is aggravated by husbands' retirement because of the decline in household income and the lesser health investment. This difference is more evident when wives retire earlier and both spouses retire in the same year. With the spouse's retirement years increasing, husbands' depression improves and wives' depression declines each year. Moreover, spouses' depression is significantly interactive, and wives' depression is more vulnerable to husbands' depression. The results highlight that the health spillover effects of the spouse's retirement need greater attention in future research and retirement reform.

Effectiveness of an Artificial Intelligence–Enabled Intervention for Detecting Clinical Deterioration

Inpatient clinical deterioration is associated with substantial morbidity and mortality but may be easily missed by clinicians. Early warning scores have been developed to alert clinicians to patients at high risk of clinical deterioration, but there is limited evidence for their effectiveness. To evaluate the effectiveness of an artificial intelligence deterioration model-enabled intervention to reduce the risk of escalations in care among hospitalized patients using a study design that facilitates stronger causal inference. This cohort study used a regression discontinuity design that controlled for confounding and was based on Epic Deterioration Index (EDI; Epic Systems Corporation) prediction model scores. Compared with other observational research, the regression discontinuity design facilitates causal analysis. Hospitalized adults were included from 4 general internal medicine units in 1 academic hospital from January 17, 2021, through November 16, 2022. An artificial intelligence deterioration model-enabled intervention, consisting of alerts based on an EDI score threshold with an associated collaborative workflow among nurses and physicians. The primary outcome was escalations in care, including rapid response team activation, transfer to the intensive care unit, or cardiopulmonary arrest during hospitalization. During the study, 9938 patients were admitted to 1 of the 4 units, with 963 patients (median [IQR] age, 76.1 [64.2-86.2] years; 498 males [52.3%]) included within the primary regression discontinuity analysis. The median (IQR) Elixhauser Comorbidity Index score in the primary analysis cohort was 10 (0-24). The intervention was associated with a -10.4-percentage point (95% CI, -20.1 to -0.8 percentage points; P = .03) absolute risk reduction in the primary outcome for patients at the EDI score threshold. There was no evidence of a discontinuity in measured confounders at the EDI score threshold. Using a regression discontinuity design, this cohort study found that the implementation of an artificial intelligence deterioration model-enabled intervention was associated with a significantly decreased risk of escalations in care among inpatients. These results provide evidence for the effectiveness of this intervention and support its further expansion and testing in other care settings.

The Financial Consequences of Online Review Aggregators: Evidence from Yelp Ratings and SBA Loans

This paper demonstrates the financial and real consequences of online review aggregators. Exploiting a regression discontinuity design that overcomes the endogenous relationship between Yelp reviews and Small Business Administration loan outcomes, I show that higher coarse Yelp ratings lead to improved loan terms and performance. Specifically, a one-half-star increase in Yelp ratings corresponds to a 25-basis-point decrease in loan spread and 6% lower collateral requirements. The effects are more pronounced when banks have less borrower information. Higher Yelp ratings also contribute to increased consumer demand and the likelihood of future business openings. These findings indicate that online review aggregators influence both consumer choices and banks’ financing decisions. This paper was accepted by Gustavo Manso, finance. Supplemental Material: The online appendix and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2020.03003 .

How partisanship in cities influences housing policy

AbstractHousing policy is one of the most important areas of local politics. Yet little is known about how local legislatures and executives make housing policy decisions and how their elections shape policy in this important realm. We leverage housing policy data and a new data source of 15,621 city council elections and 3,261 mayoral elections in large cities in the United States and a regression discontinuity design to examine partisan divides in housing policy among the mass public as well as the impact of local leaders’ partisanship on housing policy. We provide robust evidence that electing mayors from different political parties shapes cities’ housing stock. Electing a Democrat as mayor leads to increased multifamily housing production. These effects are concentrated in cities where councils have less power over land use changes. Overall, our article shows that politics influences local housing policy, and it contributes to a larger literature on local political economy.

Association of Medicare eligibility with access to and affordability of care among older cancer survivors.

Older cancer survivors have substantial needs for ongoing care, but they may encounter difficulties accessing care due to cost concerns. We examined whether near-universal insurance coverage through Medicare-a key source of health insurance coverage in this population-is associated with improvements in care access and affordability among older cancer survivors around age 65. In a nationally representative sample of cancer survivors (aged 50-80) from 2006-2018 National Health Interview Survey, we employed a quasi-experimental, regression discontinuity design to estimate changes in insurance coverage, delayed/skipped care due to cost, and worries about or problems paying medical bills at age 65. Medicare coverage sharply increased from 8.3% at age 64 to 98.2% at age 65, ensuring near-universal insurance coverage (99.5%). Medicare eligibility at age 65 was associated with reductions in delayed/skipped care due to cost (discontinuity, - 5.7 percentage points or pp; 95% CI, - 8.1, - 3.3; P < .001), worries about paying for medical bills (- 7.7 pp; 95% CI, - 12.0, - 3.2; P = .001), and problems paying medical bills (- 3.2 pp; 95% CI, - 6.1, - 0.2; P = .036). However, a sizable proportion reported any access or affordability problems (29.7%) between ages 66 and 80. Near-universal Medicare coverage at age 65 was associated with a reduction-but not elimination-of access and affordability problems among cancer survivors. These findings reaffirm the role of Medicare in improving access and affordability for older cancer survivor and highlight opportunities for reforms to further alleviate financial burden of care in this population.

Association of the fat mass index with hepatic steatosis and fibrosis: evidence from NHANES 2017–2018

Limited population-based studies discuss the association between fat mass index (FMI) and the risk of liver diseases. This investigation utilized data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) to examine the linkage between the FMI and liver conditions, specifically steatosis and fibrosis. The study leveraged data from NHANES’s 2017–2018 cross-sectional study, employing an oversampling technique to deal with sample imbalance. Hepatic steatosis and fibrosis were identified by vibration-controlled transient elastography. Receiver operating curve was used to assess the relationship of anthropometric indicators, e.g., the FMI, body mass index (BMI), weight-adjusted-waist index (WWI), percentage of body fat (BF%), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and appendicular skeletal muscle index (ASMI), with hepatic steatosis and fibrosis. In this study, which included 2260 participants, multivariate logistic regression models, stratified analyses, restricted cubic spline (RCS), and sharp regression discontinuity analyses were utilized. The results indicated that the WHR and the FMI achieved the highest area under the curve for identifying hepatic steatosis and fibrosis, respectively (0.720 and 0.726). Notably, the FMI presented the highest adjusted odds ratio for both hepatic steatosis (6.40 [4.91–8.38], p = 2.34e−42) and fibrosis (6.06 [5.00, 7.37], p = 5.88e−74). Additionally, potential interaction effects were observed between the FMI and variables such as the family income-to-poverty ratio, smoking status, and hypertension, all of which correlated with the presence of liver fibrosis (p for interaction < 0.05). The RCS models further confirmed a significant positive correlation of the FMI with the controlled attenuation parameter and liver stiffness measurements. Overall, the findings underscore the strong link between the FMI and liver conditions, proposing the FMI as a potential straightforward marker for identifying liver diseases.

Multi-institutional study of osimertinib dose-optimization in non-small cell lung cancer patients with EGFR activating mutation aged 70years or older ('MONEY' trial).

Osimertinib is the standard of care for patients with epidermal growth factor receptor-activating mutation-positive non-small cell lung cancer. Dose-toxicity has been previously reported, but no dose-response data within the range of 20-240mg daily (mg/d). Thus, the current 80mg/d dosing might be too high for elderly Japanese patients with an average body weight of only 50kg, resulting in excessive toxicity and cost. We therefore initiated a study to investigate whether osimertinib at 40mg/d is non-inferior to 80mg/d in patients with advanced or recurrent epidermal growth factor receptor-activating mutation-positive non-small cell lung cancer aged ≥70years, using a regression discontinuity design. Osimertinib is administered at 40mg/d for body weight ≤50kg, and 80mg/d for body weight >50kg. The primary endpoint is progression-free survival. Sample size is 550 patients, based on a non-inferiority margin of the progression-free survival hazard ratio 1.333, 0.10 one-sided type I error and 80% power.

Education and interest in environmental issues in Turkey: Evidence from a compulsory schooling law

ABSTRACT Given the significant impact of individual attitudes in coping with environmental problems, understanding the effects of socioeconomic factors such as education on these attitudes is critical. Utilizing the exogenous variation in educational attainment created by the 1997 education reform in Turkey, I investigate the causal effect of education on individuals’ interest in environmental issues. I apply the fuzzy regression discontinuity design using data from Turkey’s Life Satisfaction Survey. The research provides an insight into the effects of the reform on the schooling behaviour of lower socioeconomic strata. The results indicate that the increase in the proportion of middle school graduates has not changed the interest in environmental issues for men and women in lower socioeconomic positions. The increased likelihood of this group’s exposure to environmental problems, coupled with their reduced capacity to protect themselves, may stimulate interest in environmental issues independent of the effect of education. Furthermore, the increase in economic activities harmful to the environment and the increase in public discourse on environmental issues may also stimulate environmental interest. Since education does not seem to affect environmental interest, targeted policies such as incorporating environmental education into the curriculum may be necessary to enhance environmental interest.

Pro-sociality of local democratic leaders: The impact and dynamics of being elected

Democratic regimes need leaders with high intrinsic motivation to serve their constituents. In this paper, we investigate the levels of leaders’ pro-social motivation, how such levels differ from those of villagers, whether they are affected when the leaders are elected, and the persistence over several years. A regression discontinuity design based on close elections combined with a panel of incentivized lab-in-the-field measures of solidarity reveals that being elected and holding office as a local leader results in making more pro-social choices two and six years after the election. An additional experiment measuring normative expectations towards leaders suggests that leaders' higher pro-sociality may come from internalizing these expectations. We also discuss the role of income, collective action and network ties and how the increase in pro-sociality relates to local level corruption.

Assessment of the 2021 AASLD Practice Guidance for Albumin Infusion in Elective Therapeutic Paracentesis: A Regression Discontinuity Design.

The 2021 American Association for the Study of Liver Disease (AASLD) Practice Guidance recommends albumin infusion when removing ≥5 L of ascites to prevent post-paracentesis circulatory dysfunction. However, the optimal criteria and scenarios for initiating albumin infusion subsequent to therapeutic paracentesis (TP) have been subject to limited scientific inquiry. We conducted a retrospective cohort study at a US academic healthcare center. Participants received elective, outpatient TP between July 2019 and December 2022. Patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, post-TP clinical adjustments, and/or hospitalization were excluded. The institution strictly followed the AASLD Guidance. We used a sharp regression discontinuity (RD) design to estimate the effect of albumin infusion at the AASLD Guidance-recommended cutoff of 5 L on serum creatinine and sodium trajectory after TP. Over the study period, 1,457 elective TPs were performed on 235 unique patients. Albumin infusion at the threshold of 5 L of ascites removal reduced serum creatinine levels by 0.046 mg/dL/d (95% confidence interval 0.003-0.116, P = 0.037) and increased serum sodium levels by 0.35 mEq/L/d (95% confidence interval 0.15-0.55, P = 0.001) compared with those who did not receive albumin infusion. The RD plots indicated worsened serum creatine/sodium levels after draining 3 L of fluid, approaching levels similar to or worse than with albumin infusion at 5 L or more. Our RD models supported the 2021 AASLD Guidance with robust estimation of causal effect sizes at the cutoff level of 5 L. Nevertheless, the findings also highlight the need to further evaluate the efficacy of albumin infusion in patients who undergo elective TP and have 3-5 L of ascites removed.

Reducing the gender gap in parental leave through economic incentives? – Evidence from the gender equality bonus in Sweden

Using a regression discontinuity design, I evaluate an internationally unique policy in Sweden that rewarded equal division of parental leave with a cash bonus. The policy caused a small but significant reduction in the difference in days of leave between the parents. But since parent couples responded in different directions depending on the gender of the person with the lower uptake, the average effect on the mother-father difference in uptake was insignificant. Expectedly, given this result, the bonus did not affect average gender differences in earnings or indicators of later childcare responsibility. However, mothers who lowered their uptake of parental leave in response to the bonus displayed positive point estimates with regard to earnings while mothers who increased their uptake displayed negative estimates. This indicates that we cannot rule out a potential link between the length of parental leave and later allocation of time between home and market production. While the bonus did not affect average gender differences in parental leave and earnings, a key finding is that parents’ division of parental leave can be affected by economic incentives, suggesting that better calibrated bonus programs have potential to be useful policy tools.