Federal Region Research Articles

Socio-economic digitalisation development in the Volga federal district regions of Russia

Competent and effective management of the processes of digitalisation of socio-economic development of regions requires the development of system-integrated monitoring methods designed to track key spheres of social life. The assessment of the level of digital transformation of territories is the main means of this monitoring. This article proposes the author's methodology for calculating the integral index of the level of digitalisation of socio-economic development of the subjects of the Russian Federation. The object of the study is the process of digitalisation of the Volga Federal District of the Russian Federation. The proposed methodology can be applied to annual monitoring of digitalisation of Russian regions in three key areas. The findings allow us to assess the degree of progress and changes in the digitalisation of the regions over certain periods of time. This methodology can serve as an important tool for identifying achievements and shortcomings in the development of digital technologies in the socio-economic sphere.

Logistic support to ensure the investment attractiveness of the regions of the Russian Federation

Modern socioeconomic challenges are shaping new approaches to finding effective ways to develop Russian Federation regions, with the goal of forming logistics infrastructure through the large-scale implementation of digital technologies in management, subject to effective labor resource management. The purpose of the study is to improve the process of ensuring the regions' investment attractiveness using a logistical approach to the management of the regions' infrastructural and social resources. The prerequisites for the development of an integrative approach to managing the movement of human resources in the labor market were established based on the analysis of existing conceptual approaches to the problem of managing the movement of human resources using the method of systematization. This study concludes that the level of investment attractiveness of the regions is largely predetermined by the pace of development and implementation digital technologies and related logistics products and services, as well as the level of efficiency of management of external and internal labor flows in regional labor markets. The development of an integral approach to managing the movement of human resources, based on strategic management principles, and considering the interaction of labor, material, financial, and other logistical flows, enabled the essence of the concept of "labor flow" in relation to the category of "movement of human resources in the labor market" to be substantiated.

Перспективные экономические специализации макрорегионов как ключевая недоработка Стратегии пространственного развития Рос- сии

Introduction: the Spatial Development Strategy of the Russian Federation was adopted in 2019 and included the development of strategies for 12 macro-regions, which, however, did not happen. At the end of 2022, the relevance of updating the Strategy has decreased: the number of the Russian Federation regions increased under the new geopolitical conditions, and the strategic agenda focus shifted to the new economic policy of the country, considering its national interests, sovereignty, and state security. Aims: to structure and detail promising economic specializations of the subjects of the Russian Federation in the context of macroregions. Methods: comparative analysis of documents, collection and analysis of quantitative data, structural analysis. Results: the calculations of promising economic specializations of the Russian Federation subjects within each macro-region, on the one hand, demonstrate the types of economic activities as promising specializations, on the other hand, do not make it possible to understand the country’s overall strategic development vector. The main factor limiting the development of lawmaking is the approach to the choice of economic specializations based on Russian Classification of Economic Activities which lacks an appropriate detailing. Conclusions: the Spatial Development Strategy of the Russian Federation needs to be adjusted in terms of eliminating substantive and methodological inconsistencies. It is necessary to restore the approach based on the sectors of the national economy to determine the promising economic specializations of the regions. The territorial grouping of the Russian Federation subjects into macro-regions has shown the functional inconsistency of artificial integrations. Spatial development should be focused on the infrastructural improvements of the Russian regions as a part of the federal districts, considering existing national projects and state development priorities.

Мегапроекты как инструмент политики идентичности в регионах России (на примере универсиад в Казани и Красноярске)

Introduction: identity is a significant intangible resource for territorial development, the actualization of which is possible through large-scale, high-status megaprojects. Their results contribute to the development of infrastructure, tourism, business activity and investment attraction of the territory. Such events form a certain identitarian discourse, which, due to the scale of the projects, is constructed at two levels – regional and federal. The article presents the results of the identitarian discourse analysis of the Universiades held on the territory of Russia in the federal and regional context. Aims: based on the analysis of constructed identity discourses correlation at the federal and regional levels, to determine the specificity and potential of megaproject activity as a new trend in the identity policy of the Russian Federation regions (the cases of the Universiades in Kazan and Krasnoyarsk). Methods: content analysis of the materials contained at the official websites of the regional and national executive authorities, leading media covering the XXVII World Summer Universiade 2013 and XXIX World Winter Universiade 2019. Results: the case of the Kazan Universiade showed a sports-ethnic model correlation of national and regional discourses. The sports marker is dominant in terms of the number of references in the context of national identity analysis of the Kazan Universiade, while ethnicity marker has become dominant in the discourse of the regional identity. The case of Krasnoyarsk showed a sports-natural (Siberian) model of national and regional Universiade discourses correlation. The sports marker, as well as in the context of the Kazan Universiade, prevails in the national identity discourse of the Krasnoyarsk Universiade and the “natural” marker – in the context of the regional identity of Krasnoyarsk. Conclusions: The content analysis revealed the similarity of the federal and regional identitarian discourses of the Kazan and Krasnoyarsk Universiades. The predominance of social and cultural-historical markers of identity in the discourses of the Universiades in Kazan and Krasnoyarsk has been identified. The model of discourse correlation has been termed as congruent. The differences manifested themselves in the correlation markers of the regional agenda. The research novelty lies in the development of research tools for analysing identities at different levels (federal and regional) using content analysis of news sources. The work done shows the prospects of using symbolic projects in the identity policy of the regions for building an integrated discourse of national identity.

Инициативное бюджетирование – тенденции развития в российских регионах и проблемы оценки: кейс Свердловской области

Introduction: majority of the Russian Federation regions have created the regulatory framework and institutional conditions for the development of participatory budgeting; projects are selected and financed on a competitive basis. However, selecting forms and methods of participatory budgeting, evaluating the projects submitted, analyzing the effectiveness of the funds used and implemented projects in the short and long term still remain debatable issues. Objectives: generalization of approaches to assessing the effectiveness of participatory budgeting and analysis of initiative budgeting practices in the Sverdlovsk Region. Methods: dynamic and comparative analysis, generalization. Results: the institutional conditions for practical implementation of participatory budgeting in the Sverdlovsk Region have been established, including the regulatory legal framework: stages of project development and presentation; project selection criteria ensuring transparency of the competitive selection procedure. From 2017 (the implementation start) to 2022 in the Sverdlovsk Region the number of projects submitted to the regional competition increased 13 times, the number of winning projects – 11 times, which indicates the progressive development in participatory budgeting. Analyses were carried out on the following: municipalities participation; projects submitted to the regional competition and recognized as winners; existing problems in project implementation. The problems that slow down the implementation of participatory budgeting have been formulated. The tools that contribute to the development of participatory budgeting have been identified, as well as the expected effects from introducing digital product on participatory budgeting at all stages – from accepting applications for regional selection to project implementation. Conclusions: participatory budgeting allows citizens not only to participate in planning directions, implementing projects and monitoring local budget expenditures, but also to solve pressing social issues and prevent emerging conflicts with authorities. In the Sverdlovsk region, there is a positive trend in participatory budgeting practices, which indicates that both local authorities and the population are aware of the possibilities of participatory mechanisms.

Проблемы повышения качества системы стратегического планирования в субъектах Российской Федерации

Introduction: the article identifies and analyzes the problems of improving the system of strategic planning, implemented at the level of constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Objectives: to assess the quality of the strategic planning system in the regions of the Volga Federal District, by identifying factors that ensure the consideration of both actual and planned values of its implementation. Methods: system analysis, statistical method, grouping, normalization, graphical method. Results: the problems of strategic planning and the main factors reducing the quality of its implementation at the level of the Russian Federation regions have been identified. In the case-study of the Volga Federal District regions, strategic planning documents were analyzed in terms of the degree of implementation (2010–2020) and the planned parameters for 2025 and 2030. It has been established that the main factors having the strongest impact on the strategic planning quality are the index of the investments physical volume in fixed capital and real monetary incomes of the population. To assess the quality of strategic planning and to provide for a comparative analysis of its dynamics across the regions of the Volga Federal District, an integral index has been proposed that takes into account both actual and planned parameters in the context of changes in the main performance results: general economic (GRP per capita), investment (investment in fixed assets) and social (life expectancy) ones. The calculations showed that by 2030 (should the approved plans be implemented in full) the overall rating positions of the regions will be maintained, with some reduction in the gap between the upper echelon Russian regions and the leading region (the Republic of Tatarstan) and an increase in the differentiation of regions in the Volga Federal District as a whole. Conclusions: improving the quality of the strategic planning system is a complex, multifaceted process that requires taking into account many factors of a different nature. For some of those considered in the article, proposals for levelling were made to improve strategic planning and the quality of its implementation in the Volga Federal District regions.

The Diplomatic relations between the Neo-Assyria state and the Mannean kingdom (911 – 610 B.C)

The Manneans appeared in the early 9th century B.C in the cuneiform records, and sure there were existed before, they perhaps originated from the Hurrians and Kassites of the second millennium, they were spread in a vast area south, southeast and southwest of Urmia lake, its really border is not known yet, but general the Urmia basin was their homeland. Their capital city was located near modern Bokan city south of Urmia lake, they had numbers of federal regions, each region ruled by a ruler, the kings were based in their royal city Izirtu (modern Tepe Qalaichi) near modern Bokan/Bukan city. The Mannean kings generally had good relations with the Assyrian kings, but their relation was unequal in power and their role. This paper deals with the Assyrian and Mannean diplomatic relations, their peaceful contacts, and their conflicts, the Assyrian policy against and toward Mannea, the Assyrian policy of collecting taxes, booties, deportation policy etc.

DEVELOPMENT OF PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION IN THE FIELD OF AGRICULTURE IN RUSSIA (LATE XX – EARLY XXI CENTURY): TO THE HISTORIOGRAPHY OF THE PROBLEM

The issues of agrarian education evolvement in the USSR have been disclosed in sufficient detail in research, but the system of personnel training for agriculture in Russia in the post-Soviet period is covered very fragmentary. The article attempts to bring together individual research studies devoted to the development of vocational education in the agricultural sector of the Russian economy of the late XX – early XXI century. In our work, we focused on the views of researchers, government and public figures whose professional interests are related to agriculture.
 
 The historiography of the problem was divided into three groups: the first of them included publications of statesmen who develop legislative initiatives and implement public administration of the agro–industrial complex; the second group of publications consisted of analytical articles by scientists – specialists in the field of agriculture; the third group of studies is large analytical works prepared in the form of monographs, as well as doctoral and candidate dissertations. The main thematic blocks were: state policy in the field of higher agricultural education; the role of agricultural education in the development of the agro-industrial complex of Russia; the state and trends in the dynamics of agricultural education in Russia; the development of university science; the state agrarian policy in the context of reforming Russian society; secondary specialized agricultural education; personnel training for the agricultural sector of the economy of the Russian Federation regions. Most authors bring up issues about the need to increase state programs and measures to support agricultural universities, popularize and increase the prestige of agricultural education among young people.

Synergy of Investment Projects: A Cognitive Approach

An important part of the analysis of economic growth of regions is the study of the investment distribution within industries and Russian Federation regions. Carefully considered construction of extra value sequences can create positive impulses because of the synergetic effects of investment projects. The purpose of the study is to analyze the synergetic effects of regional investment projects and impulse modeling their effects on Russian economic system. Finding such effects requires complex mathematical models implementation, and usually it cannot describe all existing investment relationships. Cognitive modeling methods can become the solution of stated problem. Cognitive modeling is a combination of mathematical approaches and expert assessments. The following study includes multidimensional factor statistical analysis, which was applied to construct a cognitive map for impulse modeling. Based on investment projects in Russia, there were identified 4 main generalized economic factors. These factors were sets of closely interrelated industries. Complied factors were energy and chemical industry, mining and processing of minerals and mechanical engineering, quality of life, metalworking and woodworking. four main scenarios of investment impulses in the constructed factors were also evaluated. The growth of investment flows in the “quality of life” factor was chosen as the optimality criterion. It was revealed that the development of metal- and wood-processing provides the biggest positive effect. The conducted research shows the importance of investment synergy studying and describes a methodological approach to perform calculations.

Priorities of Digital Development in Russian Federation Regions

Digital transformation of national economy is one of national goals, which aims at improvement of the quality and comfort of life, business development and environment competitiveness. Implementation of the Strategy of Information Society Development in the Russian Federation for 2017–2030 requires well-balanced decisions both on national and regional levels. The development of Russian regions is not homogeneous, each region has its own specificity. Thus digital transformation shall be carried out with due regard to regional specific features and processes. The article analyzes challenges and prospects of implementing digital transformations in Russian regions. As a theoretical and methodological foundation of the research works by Russian and overseas experts in the field of building information society, digital economics and digital state governance were studied. The author uses analytical materials of international expert and analytical organizations, national research institutions, materials of the Federal Service of State Statistics. The research findings can be useful for identifying cause and effect relations and key challenges that face regions in realizing strategy of digital transformation and designing priority principles of digital development on the regional level.

Анализ энергоэффективности сектора МСП на макро- и мезоуровнях: проблема и пути решения

Russia joined the global Agenda for Sustainable Development, what implies a doubling of energy efficiency of the economy by 2030, what is ensured by special measures of state policy and monitoring of its effectiveness. Energy efficiency improvement in the field of SMEs is essential both to reduce the energy intensity of the entire economy and to improve the competitiveness of small and medium-sized enterprises. At the same time, the Russian system of accounting and analysis of energy efficiency is not sufficiently developed. Currently, Rosstat does not produce data on the consumption of the SME sector and does not calculate energy intensity either for the SME sector as a whole, or by types of activity or by territories. The development of energy efficiency analysis tools of SMEs is an urgent scientific and practical problem. The article suggests a method for the analysis of relevant Rosstat data which allows to identify the most important areas for energy efficiency improvement in the SME sector by territories and types of activity. The authors identified federal districts and regions that are leaders in the contribution of the SME sector to the gross regional product and, at the same time, outsiders in terms of the rate of reduction in the energy intensity of the economy. These regions are expected to give special attention to strengthening measures which improve the energy efficiency of SMEs. The authors identified the types of activities in which the strengthening of energy efficiency policies is of paramount importance due to the largest weight in the turnover structure of SMEs and due to the significantly higher energy intensity of production than the average for the economy. The authors suggest studying the possibility of introducing an energy management level index to improve the tools for energy intensity analysis of the SME sector.

Unfavorable maternal outcomes: age structure and territorial distribution

Objective. To analyze and evaluate the factors connected with age and territorial distribution among women with unfavorable maternal outcomes.
 Materials and methods. A retrospective epidemiological analysis of official statistics data on all cases of unfavorable maternal outcomes (deceased women and women with near-miss "almost dead") by age and structure at the place of residence (city, village) in comparison with successful outcomes in Perm Krai (PK), Privolzhsky Federal Region (PFR) and the Russian Federation (RF) for 19972020 was carried out.
 Results. In the age structure of deceased women in PK, the main share of 46.7 % was occupied by women aged 2029 and 3039 years, that differed from the comparison group. Among the mothers with successful outcomes in PK, PFR and RF, women aged 2029 years were in the first place 59.3, 62.5 and 60.2 %, respectively, that is 1.3 times higher than the corresponding proportion in MM. In the second place, there were women aged 3039 years 29.6; 27.9 and 29.1 %, respectively, that is 1.6 times less than the deceased women of the corresponding age. The percentage of young mothers aged 1519 was 9.2; 7.7 and 8.9 %, respectively, that is 1.4 times higher than that of the deceased women.
 The age structure of women with failed maternal mortality (FMM) differed slightly from that of deceased women and significantly from all puerperas in PK, PFR, RF. Thus, according to the ave-rage longterm data, the main share of women with FMM was women aged 2029 years 51.8 %. The percentage of puerperas aged 2029 years in PK, Privolzhsky Federal Region and the Russian Federation was 59.3, 62.5 and 60.2 respectively. In the second place in PK are women with FMM aged 3039 years 31.5 %. The share of puerperas aged 3039 years in PK, PFR and RF is 29.6 %, 27.9 % and 29.1 %, respectively. In the third place, there are young puerperas with FMM aged 1519 years 14.8 %. The proportion of such patients in PK, PFR and RF is 9.2, 7.7 and 6.6 %, respectively.
 According to the average longterm data, the proportion of urban residents prevailed among the deceased women 60.0 %. In the rural areas, the proportion of women who died was 40.0 %.
 By the place of residence, the share of women with FMM did not differ from the corresponding data in the MM group and amounted to 57.4 % in the city and 42.6 % in the village. In PK, PFR and RF, this ratio was 72.7 and 27.3 %; 71.6 and 28.4 %; 73.3 and 26.7 % respectively in all the compared territories).
 Conclusions. The risk groups for MM and FMM were women aged 2029 years, residents of the city and village, high-risk group rural women 3039 years.

Hybrid Deep Learning Algorithm for Forecasting SARS-CoV-2 Daily Infections and Death Cases

The prediction of new cases of infection is crucial for authorities to get ready for early handling of the virus spread. Methodology Analysis and forecasting of epidemic patterns in new SARS-CoV-2 positive patients are presented in this research using a hybrid deep learning algorithm. The hybrid deep learning method is employed for improving the parameters of long short-term memory (LSTM). To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology, a dataset was collected based on the recorded cases in the Russian Federation and Chelyabinsk region between 22 January 2020 and 23 August 2022. In addition, five regression models were included in the conducted experiments to show the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed approach. The achieved results show that the proposed approach could reduce the mean square error (RMSE), relative root mean square error (RRMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), coefficient of determination (R Square), coefficient of correlation (R), and mean bias error (MBE) when compared with the five base models. The achieved results confirm the effectiveness, superiority, and significance of the proposed approach in predicting the infection cases of SARS-CoV-2.

Flood-Related Federally Declared Disaster Events and Community Functioning (COPEWELL)

Objective: Understanding long-term disaster effects is key to building theories of recovery and informing policymaking. Findings regarding long-term recovery are inconsistent, with some scholars finding that disasters have little long-term impact, and others asserting otherwise. To assist in resolving this discord, we apply a conceptual framework and computational model of community resilience (“COPEWELL”) that places community functioning (CF) at the center of evaluating the effects of disaster over time. Using flooding as a disaster type, we hypothesize a change in baseline CF trend when a flood-related federally declared disaster event occurs. Methods: We used county-level flood-related federally declared disaster events (2010–2014) and selected population demographics to study their effects on annual CF trends among United States counties (N = 3141). Results: In multivariate analysis of baseline CF, we found a significant negative relationship of prior five-year flood status, federal regions relative to the Northeast (Region I), lower total earnings, and greater population size. Annual CF trend was 0.09% (95%CI: 0.01%–0.16%). In multivariate analysis, significant predictors included baseline CF (β = −0.0178, −0.0047–−0.0309), any concurrent flood-related federally declared disaster events (−0.0024, −0.0040–−0.0008), ten-year prior flood events (−0.0017, −0.0034–−0.0000) and concurrent population change (−0.0186, −0.0338–−0.0035). Conclusions: Recent floods depress baseline CF, while concurrent and ten-year-ago floods depress trend in CF. Resilience may potentially be modified by raising baseline CF and maintaining population over time.

Перспективы стратегии умной специализации в инновационном развитии регионов РФ

Перспективы стратегии умной специализации в инновационном развитии регионов РФ

Association of Anxiety and Depression with Objective and Subjective Cognitive Decline in Outpatient Healthcare Consumers with COVID-19: А Cross-Sectional Study.

In addition to the neurological complications affecting people infected with COVID-19, cognitive impairment symptoms and symptoms of anxiety and depression remain a frequent cause of complaints. The specificity of cognitive impairment in patients with COVID-19 is still poorly understood. An exploratory study of factors that may be associated with cognitive decline during the COVID-19 pandemic. The cross-sectional multicentre observational study was conducted in a polyclinic unit in Saint Petersburg and in the regions of the North-Western Federal Region. During the study, socio-demographic parameters and information about the somatic condition of patients who applied for primary health care was collected. Emotional and cognitive state were investigated using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA). Mathematical and statistical data processing was carried out using SPSS and RStudio statistical programs. The study included 515 participants, 60% (n=310) of which were women. The sample was divided into those who did (28.5%, n=147) and did not (71.4%, n=368) complain of cognitive decline. Patients with complaints of cognitive decline were significantly older, had lower levels of education and higher levels of depression and anxiety according to HADS (p <0.05). Patients with complaints of cognitive decline underwent the MoCA test (24.3%, n=125). The median MoCA test scores were within the normal range (Median=27, Q1=25, Q3=28), and cognitive decline (MoCA less than 26 points) was detected in 40% (n=50) of patients with complaints of cognitive decline. No significant correlations were found between the MoCA scores and the levels of anxiety and depression according to the HADS (p >0.05). Patients with mild severity of the COVID-19 course were more successful with MoCA subtests than patients with moderate and severe courses. We found no linear association between objective cognitive deficit and the affective state of respondents. Patients' subjective complaints about cognitive dysfunction were mostly caused by their emotional state than an objective decrease of their cognitive functions. Therefore, in case of subjective complaints on cognitive decline, it is necessary to assess not only the cognitive but also the affective state of the patient. The severity of the COVID-19 course affects the functions of the cognitive sphere, including attention, regulatory functions and speech fluency. Mild and moderate severity of the COVID-19 correlates with clinically determined depression. The absence of this relationship with the severe course of the disease is probably explained by the significant somatic decompensation of patients.

Drivers of regional innovation activity in research and development

This article is devoted to identification and determination common factor which impact on innovation level activity of Russian regions. The analysis of existing works on this topic was carried out, and the results of the study were summarized and analyzed too. The sample for the published study includes 33 different federal entities, different econometric models were constructed and compared. Recommendations were made and conclusions were produced about further way of development innovation activity in Russian Federation regions.

10. Russian Federation

In the follow-up to the Governmental Regulation of 9 July (<Документы – Правительство России) that endorsed accession of the 2007 Russian Federation to the Nairobi International Convention on the Removal of Wrecks (Nairobi Convention), a federal law (Law no. 395-FZ of 6 December), formalized the accession. The law includes for a reservation not to be bound by clauses 2 and 3 of Article 15 (Settlement of Disputes). The law also contains a notification about extending the application of the Nairobi Convention to its territorial sea as per clause 2 of Article 3 of the convention (<http://www.en.kremlin.ru/acts/news/67293>). In implementing the international commitments under the Nairobi Convention, necessary amendments to the domestic law were introduced by Federal Law no. 470-FZ, dated 30 December. In particular, the Merchant Shipping Code generally prohibits sinking of ships or their wrecks within the internal marine waters, territorial sea, and exclusive economic zone (<https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/acc_e/rus_e/WTACCRUS33A1_LEG_15.pdf>). Sunk or stranded ships, except for warships, shall be subject to removal. Under its new Chapter VII, a ship owner or a ship operator shall be obliged to report to a master of the nearest sea trading port the sunk wreck(s) with indications of circumstances and details as required by the convention. The right to report is also afforded to any person in the form of mere notification. Copies of such reports shall be transferred to the government of the Russian Federation, governments of affected federal regions, and to the states where the ship is registered. On the basis of these reports, relevant Russian governments shall take a decision to either remove a wreck or confirm absence of an environmental hazard. A ship owner shall be obliged to remove a wreck within established terms depending on the type of hazard (within three months, should the wreck pose a hazard to navigation or the marine environment, or six months, if there is a hazard to fishing or hydro-technical constructions) after notification of the sea trading port and in conformity with removal compliance documentation. Should this not be done, wrecks shall be removed by a relevant sea trading port or by the government of the nearest federal region. The latter are entitled to require compensation of costs from an insurance company. A ship owner who omits an obligation to provide a removal compliance documents shall be released from the ownership right that may be reinstated upon a judicial ruling.

О прогнозировании пассажиропотоков для высокоскоростных магистралей с учетом конкуренции на рынке пассажирских перевозок

Purpose: The study of the problem of passenger traffic forecasting for high-speed railways given peculiarities of regional development and competition in passenger transportation market in Russian Federation conditions. The influence of a large number of different factors on passenger traffic volume formation is the main reason for the difficulty of obtaining reliable forecasts of passenger traffic in the long term. Based on the analysis of Russian and foreign scientific papers, devoted to the problem under study, the most significant factors were identified from ones’ variety: population, per capita income, gross domestic and regional products. The analysis showed that scientists ambiguously assess the impact of gross regional product on passenger traffic volume. The authors investigated the relationship between the volumes of passenger traffic and gross regional product on directions of being projected high–speed railways Moscow - St. Petersburg and Moscow — Kazan. As a result, the sections of gross regional product with the greatest degree of influence on passenger traffic were identified. Also, in modern conditions, concurrence in passenger transportation market has significantly increased which mainly determines the distribution of passenger traffic by transport kinds. Methods: System analysis, correlation and regression analysis, time series analysis. Results: The obtained results showed that in market conditions, because of the dynamism and uncertainty of population’s demand for transport services which is caused by a passenger’s choice of traffic method depending on transportation travel time, cost and comfort; the complexity of forecasting passenger traffic has increased. Two variants of passenger traffic forecasting methodology for high-speed highways are proposed in view of competition in the passenger transportation market. Practical significance: The application of a mathematical model for forecasting passenger traffic, taking into account the peculiarities of Russian Federation regions development and the competition between different kinds of passenger transport, will allow to obtain a reliable estimate for promising passenger traffic volumes that will provide for the reduction of investment risks in the construction and operation of capital-intensive high-speed railways.

BLACK LIST OF FLORA OF THE CHECHEN REPUBLIC

This article was aimed at the inventory of the invasive flora of the Chechen Republic. The “black list” of the flora of the Chechen Republic has been compiled. According to the recommendations for regional Black Books, 79 species of the "blacklist" were divided into four groups with the assignment of invasive status. Three species are capable of changing the structure and composition of plant communities (status 1). Twelve species disperse actively in natural, semi-natural, and anthropogenic habitats (status 2), and 40 species occur in anthropogenic habitats (status 3). Twenty-four species were classified as potentially invasive (status 4). The article contributes to the accumulation of information about invasive processes in the Caucasus. It can be used for the regional Black Book and comparative analysis of the composition and structure of invasive flora of the Russian Federation regions.