О прогнозировании пассажиропотоков для высокоскоростных магистралей с учетом конкуренции на рынке пассажирских перевозок

Abstract

Purpose: The study of the problem of passenger traffic forecasting for high-speed railways given peculiarities of regional development and competition in passenger transportation market in Russian Federation conditions. The influence of a large number of different factors on passenger traffic volume formation is the main reason for the difficulty of obtaining reliable forecasts of passenger traffic in the long term. Based on the analysis of Russian and foreign scientific papers, devoted to the problem under study, the most significant factors were identified from ones’ variety: population, per capita income, gross domestic and regional products. The analysis showed that scientists ambiguously assess the impact of gross regional product on passenger traffic volume. The authors investigated the relationship between the volumes of passenger traffic and gross regional product on directions of being projected high–speed railways Moscow - St. Petersburg and Moscow — Kazan. As a result, the sections of gross regional product with the greatest degree of influence on passenger traffic were identified. Also, in modern conditions, concurrence in passenger transportation market has significantly increased which mainly determines the distribution of passenger traffic by transport kinds. Methods: System analysis, correlation and regression analysis, time series analysis. Results: The obtained results showed that in market conditions, because of the dynamism and uncertainty of population’s demand for transport services which is caused by a passenger’s choice of traffic method depending on transportation travel time, cost and comfort; the complexity of forecasting passenger traffic has increased. Two variants of passenger traffic forecasting methodology for high-speed highways are proposed in view of competition in the passenger transportation market. Practical significance: The application of a mathematical model for forecasting passenger traffic, taking into account the peculiarities of Russian Federation regions development and the competition between different kinds of passenger transport, will allow to obtain a reliable estimate for promising passenger traffic volumes that will provide for the reduction of investment risks in the construction and operation of capital-intensive high-speed railways.