Regional Population Projections Research Articles

Future Blood Debt: Projecting Blood Supply and Demand of Korea Based on Subnational Population Projections (2021-2050).

South Korea faces a critical challenge with its rapidly declining fertility rates and an increasingly aging population, which significantly impacts the country's blood supply and demand. Despite these nationwide trends, regional disparities in blood supply and demand have not been thoroughly studied. This research utilized blood donation data from the Korean Red Cross and blood transfusion data from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service. We analyzed these datasets in conjunction with regional population projections to simulate blood supply and demand from 2021 to 2050 across South Korea. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the impact of various factors, including the number of donors, age eligibility criteria for donations, frequency of donations, and blood discard rates. Our projections indicate a decreasing trend in blood supply, from 2.6 million units in 2021 to 1.4 million units by 2050, while demand is expected to peak at 5.1 million units by 2045 before declining. Metropolitan areas, particularly Gyeonggi Province, are projected to experience the most severe shortages. Sensitivity analyses suggest that increasing the donation frequency of existing donors and relaxing age eligibility criteria are more effective strategies in addressing these imbalances than merely increasing the number of new donors. Blood discard rates showed minimal impact on the overall blood shortage. The findings emphasize the urgent need for targeted strategies to mitigate national and regional blood supply shortages in South Korea. Encouraging frequent donations from experienced donors and broadening eligibility criteria are critical steps toward stabilizing the blood supply amidst demographic shifts. These strategies must be prioritized to address the impending regional disparities in blood availability.

Relationship between the Denominator Age of the Child-Woman Ratio and the Accuracy of Regional Population Projections

Relationship between the Denominator Age of the Child-Woman Ratio and the Accuracy of Regional Population Projections

The impact of climate change policy on the risk of water stress in southern and eastern Asia

The adequacy of freshwater resources remains a critical challenge for a sustainable and growing society. We present a self-consistent risk-based assessment of water availability and use under future climate change and socioeconomic growth by midcentury across southern and eastern Asia (SEA). We employ large ensemble scenarios from an integrated modeling framework that are consistent across the spectrum of regional climate, population, and economic projections. We find socioeconomic growth contributes to an increase in water stress across the entire ensemble. However, climate change drives the ensemble central tendency toward an increase in water stress in China but a reduction in India, with a considerable spread across the ensemble. Nevertheless, the most deleterious unabated climate-change impact is a low probability but salient extreme increase in water stress over China and India. In these outcomes, annual withdrawals will routinely exceed water-storage capacity. A modest greenhouse gas mitigation pathway eliminates the likelihood of these extreme outcomes and also benefits hundreds of millions of people at risk to various levels of water stress increase. Over SEA we estimate an additional 200 million people under threat of facing at least heavily water-stressed conditions from climate change and socioeconomic growth, but the mitigation scenario reduces the additional population-under-threat by 30% (60 million). Nevertheless, there remains a 1-in-2 chance that 100 million people across SEA experience a 50% increase in water stress and a 1-in-10 chance they experience a doubling of water stress. Therefore, widespread adaptive measures may be required over the coming decades to meet these unavoidable risks in water shortfalls.

第4報告 : 国立社会保障・人口問題研究所の地域別将来人口推計結果に対する考え方 : 東日本大震災を踏まえて(一般公開シンポジウム,第1回東日本地域部会,地域部会報告)

第4報告 : 国立社会保障・人口問題研究所の地域別将来人口推計結果に対する考え方 : 東日本大震災を踏まえて(一般公開シンポジウム,第1回東日本地域部会,地域部会報告)

New state and regional population projections for New South Wales

The New South Wales Department of Planning recently published state and regional population projections for 2006 to 2036. This paper provides an overview of the key projection results, the assumptions made and the model used. The projections put the state's population at 9.07 million by 2036, an increase of 33 per cent on the 2006 population of 6.82 million. Sydney statistical division is projected to capture three quarters of the state's population growth to 2036, increasing from 4.28 million residents in 2006 to 5.98 million by 2036. Nearly all of the remaining population increase in New South Wales is expected to occur in the other coastal regions.

Projecting Housing Stocks by Housing Tenure Using Regional Population Projections

日本は今後長期にわたって人口減少、少子高齢化が地域差を伴って進行する社会であり続ける。こうした社会において効果的な政策を実施するには、将来人口推計の結果を政策形成過程に反映させるという視点がより重要性を増してくるだろう。地方自治体が複数のケースの将来人口推計を行うようになった点を踏まえて、この結果を利用しつつ、住宅所有関係別一般世帯数（居住世帯のいる所有関係別将来住宅ストック数）と世帯人員数を推計する方法を開発しようとするものである。これにより人口減少が顕著な地域においては、持ち家や借家の世帯数がどれだけ減少するか（空き家の発生）や、持ち家や借家での高齢化がどのような違いを伴って進むのかを明らかにすることが可能となる。本稿は、この推計モデルを福井県に適用して推計精度を分析し、将来推計結果を検討したものである。

Comparative Analysis between Rogers Model and Net Migration Model on the Precision of Regional Population Projections and Consideration of Potentiality of a Combined Model

Comparative Analysis between Rogers Model and Net Migration Model on the Precision of Regional Population Projections and Consideration of Potentiality of a Combined Model

The implications of regional and national demographic projections for future GMS costs in Ireland through to 2026.

BackgroundAs the health services in Ireland have become more resource-constrained, pressure has increased to reduce public spending on community drug schemes such as General Medical Services (GMS) drug prescribing and to understand current and future trends in prescribing. The GMS scheme covers approximately 37% of the Irish population in 2011 and entitles them, inter alia, to free prescription drugs and appliances. This paper projects the effects of future changes in population, coverage, claims rates and average claims cost on GMS costs in Ireland.MethodsData on GMS coverage, claims rates and average cost per claim are drawn from the Primary Care Reimbursement Service (PCRS) and combined with Central Statistics Office (CSO) (Regional and National Population Projections through to 2026). A Monte Carlo Model is used to simulate the effects of demographic change (by region, age, gender, coverage, claims rates and average claims cost) will have on GMS prescribing costs in 2016, 2021 and 2026 under different scenarios.ResultsThe Population of Ireland is projected to grow by 32% between 2007 and 2026 and by 96% for the over 70s. The Eastern region is estimated to grow by 3% over the lifetime of the projections at the expense of most other regions. The Monte Carlo simulations project that females will be a bigger driver of GMS costs than males. Midlands region will be the most expensive of the eight old health board regions. Those aged 70 and over and children under 11 will be significant drivers of GMS costs with the impending demographic changes. Overall GMS medicines costs are projected to rise to €1.9bn by 2026.ConclusionsIreland’s population will experience rapid growth over the next decade. Population growth coupled with an aging population will result in an increase in coverage rates, thus the projected increase in overall prescribing costs. Our projections and simulations map the likely evolution of GMS cost, given existing policies and demographic trends. These costs can be contained by government policy initiatives.

Methods and Results of Regional Population Projections for Japan Conducted by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (2)(Regional Meetings of the Population Association of Japan,P.A.J. Information)

Methods and Results of Regional Population Projections for Japan Conducted by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (2)(Regional Meetings of the Population Association of Japan,P.A.J. Information)

Methods and Results of Regional Population Projections for Japan Conducted by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (1)(Regional Meetings of the Population Association of Japan,P.A.J. Information)

Methods and Results of Regional Population Projections for Japan Conducted by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (1)(Regional Meetings of the Population Association of Japan,P.A.J. Information)

Method of Regional Population Projections Considering Future Housing Supply

Method of Regional Population Projections Considering Future Housing Supply

Estimating the Burden of Disease Due to Heat and Cold Under Current and Future Climates

MS5-06 Introduction: Climate change will affect a range of health outcomes through a variety of mechanisms. Quantitative assessments of future impacts on health have largely generated outcomes that were not policy-relevant and used outcome measures that are often difficult to interpret. We have developed methods to derive estimates of the direct impact of temperature on mortality under 4 alternative future climate and socioeconomic scenarios for the United Kingdom: national enterprise, global responsibility, local stewardship, and world markets. Methods: Estimates of temperature-attributable risk (derived from the published literature) were applied to age and cause-specific mortality rates to estimate the attributable burden of premature mortality per region for selected age groups: 15–64 (adults), 65–74 (retired), and 75+ (elderly) across the 3 future time periods and for each of the 4 scenarios. Regional daily temperature projections for each scenario were obtained using scenarios constructed with a weather generator and validated against observed data. Regional population projections for each scenario were also used to generate final estimates using relative regional population share and economic contribution. The burden of mortality was estimated using a range of metrics to test assumptions in the methods for estimating future health effects. A range of assumptions were included in the models to quantify adaptation to climate warming in the U.K. population based on published literature. Sensitivity analyses were used to estimate the impact of uncertainty across the different scenarios and regions, including population acclimatization and the assumptions in the temperature–mortality models used. Results: Estimates of the number and proportion of annual deaths attributable to heat and cold with 95% confidence intervals were calculated for each U.K. region and for each scenario centered on the time periods 2021, 2051, and 2081. Conclusions: It is important to use assumptions that are consistent within each scenario (climate, population, adaptive capacity). The main source of uncertainty in final projections is due to assumptions about future population growth and the capacity to adapt to warmer climates at the population level. The socioeconomic differences between the scenarios will impact on population vulnerability (such as urban poverty and elderly living alone) and adaptive processes (such as the prevalence of air conditioning), which will substantially influence the burden of mortality attributable to the direct effects of thermal stress.

Demographic pressure, economic development, and social engineering: An assessment of fertility declines in the second half of the twentieth century.

Concerns over the prospects of explosive demographic growth led to concerted efforts to engineer fertility reductions in the developing world, while skeptics argued that economic development was the best way to hasten fertility decline. Now that fertility declines have occurred in many countries can either side claim victory? Or was demographic pressure simply self-regulated by links between mortality and fertility changes? Using country-level data and a methodology inspired by a series of seminal articles by Preston, I assess the impact of economic change on both fertility and mortality and the independent effect of mortality on fertility between the 1960s and the 1990s. Aggregating country-level estimates into six regional population projections from 1950 to 2000, I translate these impacts on demographic variables into population size impacts. Although economic development accounted poorly for either mortality or fertility changes, the prevailing population growth was not that different from the growth predicted had economic development alone influenced demographic trends. The main reason appears to be an association between mortality and fertility levels that offset the initial effects of mortality declines outpacing economic growth. Together, the effect of economic change on both mortality and fertility declines and the effect of mortality on fertility predicted reasonably well actual population size in year 2000, suggesting only a modest influence of any additional factor.

Internal migration scenarios and regional population Projections for the European Union

Recently, a new set of regional population projections for the countries of the European Union has been completed. This paper concentrates on the internal migration component of these projections. After a brief description of the internal migration model employed, the paper develops two sets of model parameters in terms of which projection assumptions are formulated: the overall mobility level, and the level of convergence or divergence of regional push and pull factors. For convergence or divergence, future parameter values are specified relative to a hypothetical change from currently observed migration patterns to a counterfactual situation of full convergence, i.e. equalised regional push and pull factors and, as a consequence, zero net internal migration for all regions. This leads to three scenarios: a baseline scenario, with mobility levels and regional effects constant throughout; a low scenario, with future (from 2010 onward) mobility levels 20% lower and regional effects 50% further away from full convergence (i.e. regional differences increase); and a high scenario, with future mobility levels 20% higher and regional effects 50% closer to full convergence. Finally, the paper presents selected results from the resulting regional population projections, with special attention paid to the contribution from the internal migration component. Overall, there are only limited differences between the scenarios, since internal migration has in general a dampening effect on population growth differentials due to other components of growth. However, at the level of individual regions, the internal migration component can make a large difference. For instance, in regions where the difference in population growth between the high and low scenarios is large, around 30% of the difference is due to the internal migration component. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Internal migration scenarios and regional population Projections for the European Union

Recently, a new set of regional population projections for the countries of the European Union has been completed. This paper concentrates on the internal migration component of these projections. After a brief description of the internal migration model employed, the paper develops two sets of model parameters in terms of which projection assumptions are formulated: the overall mobility level, and the level of convergence or divergence of regional push and pull factors. For convergence or divergence, future parameter values are specified relative to a hypothetical change from currently observed migration patterns to a counterfactual situation of full convergence, i.e. equalised regional push and pull factors and, as a consequence, zero net internal migration for all regions. This leads to three scenarios: a baseline scenario, with mobility levels and regional effects constant throughout; a low scenario, with future (from 2010 onward) mobility levels 20% lower and regional effects 50% further away from full convergence (i.e. regional differences increase); and a high scenario, with future mobility levels 20% higher and regional effects 50% closer to full convergence. Finally, the paper presents selected results from the resulting regional population projections, with special attention paid to the contribution from the internal migration component. Overall, there are only limited differences between the scenarios, since internal migration has in general a dampening effect on population growth differentials due to other components of growth. However, at the level of individual regions, the internal migration component can make a large difference. For instance, in regions where the difference in population growth between the high and low scenarios is large, around 30% of the difference is due to the internal migration component. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

GROWTH FLUCTUATIONS AND ALTERNATIVE TRAJECTORIES OF FUTURE POPULATION CHANGE: A CASE STUDY OF THE WARSAW REGION

ABSTRACT This paper documents a cyclical nature of population change for the city arid urban region of Warsaw between 1948 and 1985. These trends are interpreted with reference to demographic and polity‐related factors. Future implications, of observed demographic patterns are explored with the help of the multiregional model formulated by A. Rogers. Two alternative series of population projections are presented, starling in 1978 and 1983, respectively. Certain rules for evaluating regional population projections are suggested.

Internal and External Consistency in Multidimensional Population Projection Models

In this paper the impact of consistency requirements upon the formulation of multidimensional population projection models is dealt with. The problem of internal consistency arises when certain output variables of the model have to be consistent with one another, as in models containing marital status (two-sex problem). External consistency problems arise when certain output variables have to satisfy externally specified restrictions. For instance, regional population projections may have to add up to national projections. The paper gives internal and external consistency algorithms, which control both for stock and for flow variables. Two approaches are discussed: a simple proportional adjustment for each relevant demographic component and an approach that minimises deviations in age-specific patterns of the input rates. Both algorithms are illustrated using data from the Netherlands. In the first illustration the internal consistency algorithm is applied to the age, sex, and marital-status-specific model of the official 1980 national population forecasts. In the second, external consistency is considered within the context of the multiregional projection model which was constructed for the regional population forecasts for the Netherlands.

Migration analysis and regional population projections

authors describe a new system of models that they have developed to improve regional population projections in Norway. The DROM [Demographic Regional-Economic Model] system produces an alternative population projection where migration is influenced by regional labor market development....The labor market projection of DROM is designed to give regional breakdowns of the results of the national models. Some results of regression analysis of migration using DROM are also discussed. (EXCERPT)

Immigration and the Changing Population of New South Wales and Sydney with Implications for Education and Health Services

The problem of economic and social support for the dependant sectors of the Australian population in the future is addressed through consideration of recent national and regional population projections in relation to dependency theory. The level of immigration required to prevent the dependent sectors growing unduly at the expense of the productive is shown to be significant and this is complicated by high unemployment, and the issue of how many immigrants that can continue to be absorbed into the workforce. The contribution of suburban development trends, with their often wasteful provision of services at the local level in the longer term, as the result of regional demographic change, is seen to exacerbate the problems at the national level.

Implications of Future Fertility Trends for Contraceptive Practice

If the estimated contraceptive prevalence and total fertility rates for 1984 are approximately correct then it is clear that a dramatic change in reproductive behavior has taken place in most of the developing world over the past 2 decades. Aggregate total fertility has dropped from 6.0 in the early 1960s to about 4.0 at present; contraceptive prevalence increased from 9 to 43% over the same period. East Asia experienced the most rapid change which was almost entirely due to an extrordinary decline in Chinas fertility transition. Latin America and most of South Asia have also made major progress into the fertility transition. Only in Sub-Saharan Africa is there no significant trend in reproductive behavior. The most recent long-range global and regional population projections made by the UN assume that fertility will decline in all major regions of the developing world. Reducing fertility further according to the trends incorporated in the UN medium projections will require that contraceptive prevalence in the developing world be increased from 43% at present to 68% in 2025. While this will hardly be a simple task the momentum built over the past 2 decades suggests that this is an obtainable goal. This future trajectory of prevalence implies very rapid growth in the numbers practising contraception from about 256 million at present to 736 million in 2025 because both the prevalence level and the number of married women of reproductive age are increasing. During this period (1984-2025) the largest increases in contraceptive prevalence will be required in Africa (12 to 59%) while East Asia needs only a 5% point increase. Corresponding prjections of the number of women practicing contraception by region are also presented. The contraceptive methods used are likely to continue to be the modern clinical ones such as sterilization the IUD pill and injectables. As a consequence a rapid expansion of family planning services provided by both the public and private sectors will be required over the next several decades. (summaries in ENG FRE SPA)