Regional Actors Research Articles

East Asia’s Alliance Dilemma: Public Perceptions of the Competing Risks of Extended Nuclear Deterrence

ABSTRACT Against the backdrop of a rapidly changing security environment in East Asia, regional actors have seen a surge in “nuclear anxiety”. Worries among citizens of US allies and partners about rising nuclear threats and nuclear proliferation risks critically shape US foreign policy in East Asia. This paper thus asks: What drives nuclear anxiety in East Asia? And how can the United States most effectively resolve it? We situate nuclear anxiety in the dynamics of abandonment and entrapment that exist between allied states, as well as in the unique regional security structure, or the hub-and-spoke system in East Asia. To better understand the implications of nuclear anxiety on regional nuclear policy, we analyze the results of an original survey conducted in June 2023 across Washington’s five allies and partners in East Asia: Australia, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. The survey results suggest the presence of the dynamics of both nuclear entrapment and abandonment among these regional actors, as well as mixed interests in indigenous nuclear programs. In addition, we demonstrate how citizens of East Asia evaluate possible policy options that could help Washington mitigate regional nuclear anxiety.

Sailing close to the wind: Japan’s forward deterrence posture toward the Taiwan Strait

ABSTRACT Some scholars claim that Japan’s 2022 documents mark a critical juncture in security policy. Is this the case? I argue for a positive answer but, based on deterrence concepts, not for the reasons advanced. Counterstrike capabilities and other aspects of the documents pinpointed by scholars are more adaptations of, than deviations from, past deterrence practices. An overlooked and more substantial evolution is taking place amid an intensifying deterrence-entrapment dilemma: the adoption of a forward deterrence posture aimed at preventing crises in the Taiwan Strait through the projection of general deterrent effects. This posture constitutes a critical juncture because it sets Japan on the path of becoming a potent regional security actor. It also raises questions about Tokyo’s ability to keep a balanced approach toward China.

Shared Goals, Diverging Paths: Saudi-Emirati Alliance in Yemen Conflict (2015-2023)

This article explores the intricacies of the Riyadh- Abu Dhabi alliance in Yemen and the potential impact this has had on the conflict. Specifically, it adopts the theoretical framework of Intra-alliance politics, which integrates considerations of individual and collective interests in coalition, and examines how divergent interests and strategic preferences between the two major regional actors shape the dynamics of the alliance and evolving competitions within it. Further, it also assesses the implications of the discord between the two regional powers on Yemen’s stability. The article concludes that beyond distinct national interests, the inability to achieve the coalition’s primary objective of reinstating the government in Sana’a has further fuelled this divergence. While the coalition has undergone a transformation, the situation does not spell the end of the Riyadh-Abu Dhabi alliance, as they have been able to, in many instances, compartmentalize their disagreements for larger gains. Nevertheless, an increasing divergence between these two States in their Yemen policy is likely to be counter-productive to their shared goal of stabilizing Yemen.

Индо-тихоокеанская стратегия Канады: новейший этап

Canada, despite its geographical location in North America, following its closest allies, mainly the USA, seeks to strengthen its influence in the Indo-Pacific region. The Canadian Government sees significant opportunities for the development of its economic, diplomatic and military potential. Canada’s Indo-Pacific Strategy, announced in 2022, has become the doctrinal basis of this policy, systematizing it in three key areas – economic, military and humanitarian. The article examines the issue of the transformation of the terminology base used, the regional Strategy of Canada as a mid-ranking power in the Indo-Pacific region, the main directions of its policy, and analyzes its doctrinal design with regard to the presence of goals, objectives, risks and threats in the Strategy. The author also focuses on the “anti-Chinese” aspect of the Strategy as a combination of diplomatic, economic and military means of the Canadian “containment” policy toward the Communist Party of China, whose growing influence, according to the Canadian political circles and the expert community, carries risks for regional stability and security, for a regional order based on rules and regulations. The study shows that in the long term, the priorities of Canada’s Strategy in the Indo-Pacific are updating the system of bilateral economic, diplomatic and defense agreements, as well as supporting the defense potential of partner countries. At the same time, despite the desire to strengthen its military presence in the region, the expansion of economic and trade development with regional actors will remain a key aspect of Canada’s policy.

ASBlock:An Agricultural based Supply Chain Management using Blockchain Technology

Blockchain is a distributed digital ledger technology that allows for the immutable and auditable logging of transactions without needing a central authority or centralized database. First introduced in 2008 as the technology behind the digital currency Bitcoin, blockchain has now found use in a wide range of sectors. Modern agriculture supply networks have emerged to accommodate intricate interactions between regional actors and the agricultural environment. Interactions between various participants in the supply chain, including those involved in manufacturing, processing, and delivery. One of the main reasons fraud happens so often in agriculture is the lack of transparency in the supply chain. Businesses that aren’t transparent run the risk of losing money, alienating their customers, and seeing their brands decline in value. To encourage the growth of an efficient and trustworthy trading environment, several fundamental adjustments to the current supply chain architecture are necessary. The potential for blockchain technology to enhance food and agricultural supply chain transparency is well acknowledged. Companies utilize IoT and blockchain to create more equitable, sustainable, and customer-friendly food manufacturing systems. In this current work, a blockchain-based decentralized application (dApp), ‘ASBlock’, is developed for agricultural-based supply chain management. The primary focus of this developed application is to bring transparency and security to all participating users of the application; the users of this application include farmers or producers, suppliers or retailers, hotels, and end users. The performance analysis shows that the average gas utilization of the proposed ASBlock dApp is ∼ 2.8 ⋆ 104. The average smart contract execution time for all use cases is ∼ 112sec.

Сепаратизм в современной Европе: пространственные эффекты политических изменений

According to Ryan Griffiths, we’re in the “Age of Secession”. The characteristics of spatial effects typical of European separatism are consistently examined in this paper. The effects of diffusion, proximity, fragmentation, and scale are given special consideration. The space is not homogeneous; separatism erupts with the most vulnerable territories, takes different forms, and has different pace. Since the diffusion effect undoubtedly contributes to the fragmentation of the political space, it takes on distinct forms depending on the historical period. It would be incorrect to claim that separatist movements arise in response to geographic distance only. Social proximity determines spatial influence. Instead, the degree to which separatist actors interact with one another is determined by their territorial proximity. With scale of political activity changing, the correspondent extent, to which political actors influence them, varies as well. As a result, regionalist parties that are not well-known at the federal level play a significant role in local politics. Due to the fragmentation effect, the number of these parties is increasing at the regional level, yet not nationwide. Given the scale effect, regional actors in the EU can interact with supranational structures themselves and gain more power without having to go through national ones. There are more parties with a territorial profile as a result of spatial effects in politics. Political leaders and parties at the national level are compelled to consider their stances, incorporate the regional agenda into their plans, and frequently pursue partnerships with them.

ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM AS A COOPERATIVE SECURITY MECHANISM

The article explores the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) as a pivotal cooperative security framework in Asia-Pacific. Cooperative security, characterized by multilateralism, inclusiveness, transparency, and consensus-building, underpins the ARF’s functioning. The study delves into the ARF’s establishment during the post-Cold War era, highlighting ASEAN’s political and diplomatic gains, which fostered trust among major powers and regional actors. The authors analyse the ARF’s development, noting its primary focus on confidence-building measures, reflecting the principles of non-interference and consensus inherent in ASEAN’s norms. Key findings indicate that while the ARF has made strides in enhancing regional security dialogue, it remains constrained by its slow-moving approach to preventive diplomacy and the lack of coercive mechanisms. The Forum's ability to address traditional security challenges, such as the North Korean nuclear threat and the South China Sea dispute, is limited. Therefore, the ARF focuses on addressing non-traditional security issues, including counterterrorism and disaster mitigation. The findings show that ARF's role encompasses extending ASEAN’s cooperative security norms to the broader Asia-Pacific region, promoting transparency and fostering a collaborative security environment by means of confidence-building measures. The article posits that while ASEAN’s leadership in the ARF is more an outcome of regional circumstances than deliberate strategy, the ASEAN Regional Forum remains an important mechanism for security cooperation in Asia-Pacific.

Эволюция политического и военного влияния ФРГ на Ближнем Востоке

The situation in the Near East is important for each power, especially for the rising one. Germany belongs to the last category. The article tries to explore the forms, features and results of the FRG`s usage of political and military tools in the Near East by the mid‑2020s. For two decades, Germany was trying to become security and stability provider for regional actors, to ensure strategic influence in the zones of armed conflicts. But in Iraq and especially in Syria, the results of Berlin’s participation in the struggle against the “Islamic state” (Terrorist organization banned in Russia) were rather modest. Hence, the Bundeswehr was forced to short its presence in Iraq and to reduce it to zero in Syria by the early 2020s. Rather important for Germany was the critical lack of opportunities to influence over growing strategic activity of the key regional actors. The FRG has faced the fact of distancing with Turkey which demonstrated its special position from other Western democracies on many regional issues. In 2010s, Germany made significant efforts to relieve tensions around Iran (because of its nuclear program and the confrontation with Saudi Arabia), but in the early 2020s, Berlin turned to the containment of this country. There has been also the disruption of the previous balance in the development of Germany’s partnership with Israel, Jordan, Palestinian National Authority, and Lebanon (official Beirut). Berlin starts to see the relations with Tel-Aviv as the highest priority. All the tendencies have received noticeable development during the war in the Gaza Strip since October 2023.

Unemployment in the Balkan countries and policies for its reduction

This paper examines the problem of unemployment in the Balkan countries, its causes, consequences, and policies. The paper analyzes the comparative aspects of unemployment in the region, highlighting the differences among the countries regarding economic development, labor market institutions, and structural reforms. The study argues that unemployment in the Balkan countries is a legacy of the transition from socialism to the market economy, which resulted in massive job losses, low productivity, skill mismatches, and informality (Cipan, 2019). Also, reviews the active and passive labor market policies implemented in the Balkan countries to address unemployment and evaluates their effectiveness and impact. The paper shows that the policies have been largely insufficient, fragmented, and poorly targeted, failing to address the structural and institutional barriers that hinder job creation and employment. The study concludes that unemployment in the Balkan countries is a complex and persistent challenge that requires a comprehensive and coordinated approach, involving both national and regional actors, as well as the support of the international community. The paper contributes to the literature on unemployment in the Balkan countries by providing a comprehensive and updated overview of the issue, and by suggesting some policy recommendations for its reduction.

The Cause of Diplomatic Failure in the Sahel Region and the Rising Coups

This paper examines the reasons of diplomatic failure amid the rising coups in the Sahel region. Five countries (Mali, Burkina Faso, Sudan, Chad, Niger and Gambia) are currently governed or ruled by military juntas after the regional actors for instance, ECOWAS (Economic Committee of West African States) and AU (African Unity) have failed to explore any successful diplomatic strategy to annex the situation. Reasons accounting for the rising coups in the region are different depending on the country, generally, they include, lack of leadership and political will, historical legacies, weak institutions and governance, the abundance of resources, mistrust, economic hardships, unemployment, inadequate basic amenities and many others. The region currently is experiencing a combination of climate, food insecurity, armed conflicts, and demographic shocks with significant socio-economic consequences, and according to Plan International for West Africa, an NGO (Non-governmental organization), indicates that, more than 9.7 million people are food insecure in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, as of December 2022, and 600,000 children are already suffering from acute malnutrition (Harsch 2017). Diplomacy in Africa (Sahel) has experienced some of its failures due to a convergence of factors such as: the quality of diplomacy and mediators; the ubiquity of conflicts; the continent’s lack of international influence; Africa’s dependence on external actors and; subsequent lack of assertiveness and the inability to stand up to errant leaders within the region whose actions threaten good governance and regional security. Therefore, the article will further detail the cause of rising coups in the Sahel region and recommend sustainable diplomatic measures to the regional actors.

CHILE: HOW TO BECOME AN ECONOMIC STAR OF THE PACIFIC REGION?

Chile is the state actor that became the regional power to be reckoned with despite a relatively small population and tense geopolitical relations with three neighbours – Argentina, Peru, and Bolivia, – while the pecularities of the national topography make the task of economic development considerably harder. Moreover, at the first sight, the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet with its notorious repressions hardly could lure foreign investors. The article explains which commodities and services helped the country to reach one of the highest per capita levels in South America The authors focus on the specific features of Chile’s geopolitical location by highlighting key points of its political and economic interactions with Argentina, Bolivia, and Peru, and also identify important segments of the state’s tourism business which turn it into a significant point of cultural and tourist development in the Latin American region. In this vein, the importance of cooperation between Chile and other states in the region in the field of air transportation is emphasized, since this collaboration allows them to actually dominate the airspace and establish numerous tourist and cargo transportations. The importance of mining which allows Chile establishing cooperation with other regional actors in this sector is emphasized. In addition, the authors highlight the sphere of agriculture where Chilean farmers emphasize fishing, fruit growing and wine production, as well as the subsequent export of these goods abroad due to the small consumption capacity of the domestic market. Considering Chile’s foreign policy interactions with external partners, the authors stress the importance of cooperation with China and the US. These states are noted to have a significant influence on the development of the Chilean economy because they cooperate with it in all critically important sectors. However, the uncontrolled growth of Chinese import flows and the excessive presence of Chinese multinational corporations in the territory of Chile cause certain concerns both in Chile and on the part of the United States. Nevertheless, the authors conclude that the state’s balanced economic policy in the region allowed Chile to gain a worthy place in the economic structure of Latin American trade and increase the pace of its own development.

The Benefits and Burdens of Being In-between. Discourses in European Parliament on Turkey’s Identity and Geopolitical Role in the Syrian Civil War

This article researches discursive practices of Members of European Parliament (MEPs) regarding Turkey’s identity and geopolitical role in the context of the Syrian Civil War from 2011 to 2016. It argues that MEPs struggled to accept Turkey’s in-betweenness: being European and Islamic/Asian simultaneously. This became particularly visible when Turkish foreign policy-behaviour in the region was colliding with European interests and authoritarianism in Turkey kept increasing. As a result, Turkey was framed more and more as non-European by referring to its religion, history and geography. However, MEPs believed cooperation with Turkey to be necessary due to its (growing) role in the conflict and the region in general. In that vein, parliamentary discourses shifted from EU membership to strategic partnership; perceiving Turkey as a key (regional) actor instead of a bridge and role model. Overall, the article gives valuable insights into the EU’s perception of its own identity and (normative) role, and tensions and challenges related to it.

ՀՀ-ՎՐԱՍՏԱՆ ՔԱՂԱՔԱԿԱՆ ՀԱՐԱԲԵՐՈՒԹՅՈՒՆՆԵՐԻ ԶԱՐԳԱՑՄԱՆ ԴԻՆԱՄԻԿԱՆ ՀԵՏԽՈՐՀՐԴԱՅԻՆ ՇՐՋԱՆՈՒՄ / THE DYNAMICS OF DEVELOPMENT OF RA-GEORGIAN POLITICAL RELATIONS IN THE POST-SOVIET PERIOD

Georgia has transit strategic importance for Armenia. The purpose of this article is to present the development of RA-Georgia relations, the impact of changes in political leaders, and geopolitical developments in both countries in the post-Soviet period. The following objectives were set in the given research: 1. to study RA-Georgia relations and their changes, basic and main documents, 2. to analyze the influence of political leaders and geopolitical developments of the two countries on bilateral relations, 3. to present the role of regional and extraterritorial actors, balancing policy and influence in regional developments. The systematic methods of historical-comparative, event, and content analysis were used in the research. The research resulted in the following conclusions: 1. Based on the historical and geopolitical circumstances of the two countries, they have always emphasized the neighborly relations between the two countries and their development. 2. The character of relations can be considered strategic and friendly. Georgia can have a positive influence on the RA-Azerbaijan and RA-Turkey dialogue. RA can be an important bridge in Iran-Georgia relations. 3. Georgia-Azerbaijan-Turkey strategic cooperation can become a big threat for Armenia.

Политика Египта в Ливии как отражение современных тенденций на Ближнем Востоке

This article examines the evolution of Egypt’s foreign policy towards Libya, highlighting the significance of the recent developments for understanding the shifts both in Cairo’s foreign strategy and regional military and political dynamics. The persistent Libyan conflict presents a formidable challenge to international and regional security. Egypt’s engagement in Libya is driven by its national security concerns, with special emphasis on the need to maintain Libyan territorial integrity, stabilize the country’s military-political landscape, and prevent Islamist resurgence. The article underscores the securitized nature of Egypt’s foreign policy, characterized by its readiness to employ force to ensure national interests. However, the author also points to Cairo’s strategic flexibility while balancing military and political measures, demonstrating willingness to adapt approaches without abandoning core objectives, and fostering dialogue. Actively working to stabilize Libya, Egypt aims to mitigate risks to its national interests, including the ones in the realm of economy. Cairo’s goals include support to Libya’s integrity as a state, reducing foreign interference, ensuring border security, enhancing Egyptian regional influence, and protecting its economic stakes. These efforts mirror the broader regional trend in the foreign policies of the key regional actors who – amidst the continuing (and even worsening) conflicts and destabilization in the Middle East – have started to seek de-escalation since the early 2020s, driven by the realization that costly military strategies require reassessment. Recognizing the importance of cooperation for the goals of economic prosperity and security, key regional actors increasingly value pragmatism and flexibility in their foreign policy approaches.

US-Russia Rivalry in the 21st Century: New Cold War and Russian Resurgence in the Changing Global Power Dynamics

Introduction: The Russia-Ukraine conflict, involving major powers, has profoundly impacted global peace and security, sparking initial fears of nuclear escalation. Rooted in various factors, Russia's claim to Ukrainian territory stems from linguistic and familial ties, compounded by perceived American betrayal of promises made during the Cold War's end. NATO's expansion into Eastern Europe further strained relations, culminating in the Euro-Maidan Revolution. The alignment of Russian and Chinese interests against the United States signals a new Cold War dynamic. However, scholarly discourse debates whether this rivalry is a new phenomenon or a continuation of past tensions. Methodology: This paper employs qualitative research methodology to examine the authenticity of American promises to the Soviet Union regarding NATO's non-expansion. Through qualitative analysis, it seeks to unravel the complexities of geopolitical negotiations and ascertain the extent to which these promises were upheld. Results/Findings: The study sheds light on the historical antagonism between Russia and the United States, contextualizing the current conflict within this broader narrative. It highlights the ramifications of broken promises and geopolitical maneuvering, revealing the intricate dynamics of global power struggles. Future Direction: Further research is needed to explore the implications of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on international relations and global security. Investigating the evolving dynamics of the Sino-Russian partnership and its impact on the geopolitical landscape will provide valuable insights into the trajectory of contemporary power dynamics. Additionally, examining the role of regional actors and the potential for diplomatic resolutions to mitigate tensions is essential for fostering lasting peace in the region.

COMMON PROBLEMS, INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS AROUND THE DYNAMICS OF CONFLICTS IN NAGORNO-KARABAKH, ABKHAZIA, SOUTH OSSETIA AND TRANSNISTRIA

There are about 25 de facto states in the world, five of them in the postSoviet space. The emergence of de facto regimes is directly related to the impasse and conflict-causing reality when the de jure state, which is directly related to the state, is no longer able to exercise its (self-) authority over the population and territory of the de facto state. The purpose of this article is to analyse and compare the ethno-political conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Transnistria. The focus is on the similarities and differences in the causes, processes and consequences of the conflicts, which provides a comprehensive understanding of the dynamics of the conflicts and reveals the existence of possible commonalities in the context of ethno-political disputes. In order to achieve this goal, the task was to examine the role and significance of historical background, political developments, ethnic composition and international influences in the regions. The methodological approach of the article is based on a comparative analysis of the mentioned ethno-political conflicts. Both qualitative and quantitative research methods are employed. Primary sources are used, including official documents, political statements and articles, mainly from the German news media. Ethno-political conflicts have always been found to have complex and contradictory dynamics, which in turn provide fertile ground for the interests of major regional actors. The conclusion is that cross-cutting research on ethno-political conflicts provides an opportunity to develop a clear understanding of the causes and consequences of conflict in order to identify possible patterns and commonalities in conflict resolution in comparable situations.

NATO’s Southern Flank: The Evolution of Türkiye’s Strategic Role and Its Implications for Regional Security

This article delves into the progressive development of Türkiye's strategic function within NATO, and what it signifies for regional security along the Alliance's Southern Flank. Türkiye, as a crucial NATO member since 1952, has steadfastly assumed a considerable part in the organization's collective defense, thereby bolstering the stability of the region. The article offers a historical review of Türkiye's involvement in NATO, tracking its journey from joining the Alliance during the initial Cold War years to navigating the more intricate security milieu of the post-Cold War era. The focus then shifts to the geopolitical challenges faced by NATO on its Southern Flank, particularly in the Middle East, the Eastern Mediterranean, and the Black Sea region. Within this context, the article analyzes Türkiye's evolving strategic role, including its military capabilities and growing defense industry, diplomacy, and soft power initiatives, as well as its efforts to balance relations with NATO, Russia, and other regional actors. The article also explores Türkiye's strategic decision to acquire the Russian S-400 missile defense system, a move that underscores Türkiye's commitment to diversifying its defense capabilities and enhancing its national security, while also navigating the complex dynamics of international alliances and NATO's evolving security landscape. Subsequently, it discusses the possible advantages and hurdles that could arise from Türkiye's dynamic strategic role in regional security and on NATO's Southern Flank. Key topics addressed include the reinforcement of NATO's defense capabilities, the enhancement of regional security cooperation, and potential strains within the Alliance. The piece wraps up with an evaluation of future prospects for Türkiye's strategic function in NATO and the implications for regional security. This underlines the significance of maintaining a united and adaptable NATO that can adeptly respond to the evolving security challenges in the region.

REGIONAL ORGANIZATIONS AS PEACE-BUILDERS: A LIBERAL APPROACH TO CONFLICT MITIGATION

The article focuses on the role regional organizations play in regional peace-building within the theoretical framework of liberalism. Using a critical analysis of some of the key organizations, including but not limited to, the United Nations, European Union, African Union, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, this study looks at how liberal cooperation, multilateralism, and institutional governance help in efforts to prevent regional conflicts. The performance of these organizations in managing conflicts in the diverse regional context identifies their successes and shortcomings. The region of study particularly shines the light on how challenges have arisen from applying Western liberal frameworks in regions that were supposed to be non-Western and takes into consideration historical, cultural, and political conditions that require more adaptability and inclusiveness in peace-building interventions. This article argues that though liberalism remains the most significant tool in contemporary peace building, however its future requires a more fluid and multilevel engagement aimed at bringing local, national, and regional actors together in work toward sustainable peace.

The Rivalry between India and China for Political Influence in Nepal

Nepal is geographically situated between India and China's economically prosperous and politically influential nations. As a result, the interests of Nepal's neighbouring countries have influenced its political landscape. Thus, the paper attempts to analyse how India and China destabilise democracy in Nepal by relating historical, political, economic, and cultural factors because they are connected. Furthermore, it examines how India and China have affected Nepal's democracy through the political parties, the government, and the Constitution. China and India have a geostrategic rivalry, and then they engage in Nepal to create political polarisation, which weakens democratic institutions. It fuels instability in Nepal because it has cultural and political ties and generates more government instability. Therefore, research explores the complex connection of Nepal with China and India and their impact on democratic stability. The study concludes that Nepal's government, civil society, and regional actors should mitigate the adverse effects of external political intervention and foster a stable democratic environment in Nepal. This study used a qualitative technique, incorporating a literature review and document analysis, to examine reports, policy documents, and media items. The analysis of thematically gathered data reveals discernible patterns and trends in the influence of China and India on the volatility of Nepal's democratic system.

China and Saudi-Iran Strategic Partnership Opportunities for Pakistan

The recent political reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran has provided Pakistan with a multitude of possible benefits and opportunities. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the capacity of Pakistan to emerge as a prominent regional actor. The achievement of this goal will be realized by a comprehensive analysis of the benefits and obstacles associated with a strategic partnership. The main aim of this study is to present a comprehensive and analytical framework for assessing the strategic alliance between China, Saudi Arabia, and Iran, and its potential implications for Pakistan and the surrounding area. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor presents itself as a potentially beneficial pathway for promoting cooperation and collaboration within this setting.