Reducing Malaria Incidence Research Articles

One Health approach to improve the malaria elimination programme in Henan Province.

One Health is a collaborative, multi-sectoral, trans-disciplinary approach with the goal of achieving optimal health outcomes by recognizing the interconnection between people, animals, plants, and the environment and determining how this relates to the control of infectious diseases such as malaria, schistosomiasis and so on. Malarias caused by Plasmodium that commonly infects female Anopheles mosquitoes, which feed on human blood and act as a disease vector. It has been a worldwide important public health problem from ancient times. Also, malaria is one of the infectious diseases with the longest epidemic time and the most serious harm in the history of Henan Province, China. During the past decades, the multi-sectoral, cross-regional, and multi-disciplinary One Health approach contributed to a significant reduction in malaria incidence, resulting in initiation of the Henan Malaria Elimination Action Plan. Herein, we reviewed the history of the fight against malaria in Henan Province. A full picture of malaria epidemics, prevention, and control strategies were showed, with the objective that it will help stakeholders, and policy-makers to take informed decisions on public health issues and intervention designs on malaria control towards elimination in the similar areas.

Effect of interventions to reduce malaria incidence among military personnel on active duty: study protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial of the impact of etofenprox-treated uniforms, permethrin-treated uniforms and DEET insect repellent

BackgroundWhile there is strong evidence that bite protection methods such as permethrin-treated clothing and topical insect repellents are protective against insect bites, there are few studies assessing the impact on malaria infection. This study will estimate the protective efficacy of treated uniforms and DEET insect repellent on the incidence of malaria infection among military personnel in an operational setting. Permethrin-treated uniforms used with DEET lotion will be compared to etofenprox-treated uniforms with DEET lotion. The effect of DEET lotion will be estimated by comparing permethrin-treated uniforms with DEET or placebo lotion.MethodA cluster randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trial is planned to evaluate the effectiveness of the interventions on preventing malaria infections in soldiers on active duty at Mgambo National Service Camp in Tanga, Tanzania. The arms are (1) permethrin-treated uniform with 30% DEET liposome formula; (2) permethrin-treated uniform with placebo lotion; (3) candidate insect repellent system, i.e. etofenprox-treated uniform with 30% DEET liposome formula; and (4) placebo, i.e. untreated uniforms with placebo lotion. The primary outcome is the incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection detected by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) by active case detection using surveys every 2 weeks for 12 months. Rapid diagnostic tests will be used for the diagnosis of participants with symptoms.The unit of randomisation will be combania: companies formed by recruits aged 18 to 25 years; combania do activities together and sleep in the same dormitory. Unequal randomisation will be used to optimise statistical power for the primary comparison between permethrin-treated uniforms with DEET and etofenprox-treated uniforms with DEET.DiscussionThis trial will provide the estimate of the effects of permethrin with DEET compared to those of the new fabric treatment etofenprox with DEET and any additional effect of using DEET. The results will inform strategies to protect military personnel and civilians who have more outdoor or occupational malaria exposure than the general public.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.govNCT02938975.

Evaluation of prediction models for the malaria incidence in Marodijeh Region, Somaliland.

Malaria is a major public health concern in tropics and subtropics. Accurate malaria prediction is critical for reporting ongoing incidences of infection and its control. Hence, the purpose of this investigation was to evaluate the performances of different models of predicting malaria incidence in Marodijeh region, Somaliland. The study used monthly historical data from January 2011 to December 2020. Five deterministic and stochastic models, i.e. Seasonal Autoregressive Moving Average (SARIMA), Holt-Winters' Exponential Smoothing, Harmonic Model, Seasonal and Trend Decomposition using Loess (STL) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), were fitted to the malaria incidence data. The study employed Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE) to measure the accuracy of each model. The results indicated that the artificial neural network (ANN) model outperformed other models in terms of the lowest values of RMSE (39.4044), MAE (29.1615), MAPE (31.3611) and MASE (0.6618). The study also incorporated three meteorological variables (Humidity, Rainfall and Temperature) into the ANN model. The incorporation of these variables into the model enhanced the prediction of malaria incidence in terms of achieving better prediction accuracy measures (RMSE = 8.6565, MAE = 6.1029, MAPE = 7.4526 and MASE = 0.1385). The 2-year generated forecasts based on the ANN model implied a significant increasing trend. The study recommends the ANN model for forecasting malaria cases and for taking the steps to reduce malaria incidence during the times of year when high incidence is reported in the Marodijeh region.

Five-Year Trend Analysis of Malaria Cases in East Shawa Zone, Ethiopia

Malaria is an infectious disease caused by Plasmodium parasites. Of the five human malaria parasites Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax are the two co-endemic predominant and widely distributed species in Ethiopia, with major public health importance. Even though enormous effort has been made countrywide to reduce the disease burden little was reported about trends of malaria transmission in the several localities of malarious areas like East Shawa Zone, Ethiopia. Thus, the present study was aimed at assessing fiveyear (2016-2020) trends of malaria transmission at Adama, Boset and Lume districts of East Shawa Zone of Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia. Retrospective data was extracted from the central surveillance database of East Shawa Zone Health Office. The data collected was analyzed from September 2020 to December 2020 to examine trends of malaria epidemiology in three malarious districts in the Zone. The results of the present study showed a remarkable decrease in slide positivity rate (SPR) from 16.3 to 1.4% from 2016 to 2018 in the areas. However, a recent slight increase of malaria SPR was observed. On the other hand, as age increases more male individuals were infected with malaria compared to female of similar age groups. Falciparum, vivax and mixed malaria infection accounted for 53%, 41% and 6% respectively. Even though, an overall reduction of malaria incidence was revealed in the study areas, an increase in malaria SPR was observed in 2019 and 2020. Such inconsistency in reduction of malaria cases in the study area demands due attention of health planners.

Aetiology and outcome of non-traumatic coma in African children: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis

BackgroundNon-traumatic coma is a common acute childhood presentation to healthcare facilities in Africa and is associated with high morbidity and mortality. Historically, the majority of cases were attributed to cerebral malaria (CM). With the recent drastic reduction in malaria incidence, non-malarial coma is becoming a larger proportion of cases and determining the aetiology is diagnostically challenging, particularly in resource-limited settings. The purpose of this study will be to evaluate the aetiology and prognosis of non-traumatic coma in African children.MethodsWith no date restrictions, systematic searches of MEDLINE, Embase, and Scopus will identify prospective and retrospective studies (including randomised controlled trials, cluster randomised trials, cohort studies, cross-sectional, and case-control studies) recruiting children (1 month–16 years) with non-traumatic coma (defined by Blantyre Coma Score ≤ 2 or comparable alternative) from any African country. Disease-specific studies will be included if coma is associated and reported. The primary outcome is to determine the aetiology (infectious and non-infectious) of non-traumatic coma in African children, with pooled prevalence estimates of causes (e.g., malaria). Secondary outcomes are to determine overall estimates of morbidity and mortality of all-cause non-traumatic coma and disease-specific states of non-traumatic coma, where available. Random effects meta-analysis will summarise aetiology data and in-hospital and post-discharge mortality. Heterogeneity will be quantified with τ2, I2, and Cochran’s Q test.DiscussionThis systematic review will provide a summary of the best available evidence on the aetiology and outcome of non-traumatic coma in African children.Systematic review registrationPROSPERO CRD42020141937

Modeled Impact of Seasonal Malaria Chemoprevention on District-Level Suspected and Confirmed Malaria Cases in Chad Based on Routine Clinical Data (2013-2018).

ABSTRACT.Sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine plus amodiaquine is delivered to children aged 3–59 months as seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) in areas where transmission is highly seasonal such as Chad and other Sahelian countries. Although clinical trials show a 75% reduction in malaria cases, evidence of SMC’s impact at scale remains limited. Using data from the Chadian National Health Management Information System, we analyzed associations between SMC implementation during July–October and monthly district-level malaria incidence (suspected and confirmed outpatient cases) among children aged 0–59 months at health facilities in 23 health districts with SMC implementation during 2013–2018. Generalized additive models were fitted with separate cyclic cubic spline terms for each district to adjust for seasonality in cases. SMC implementation in Chad was associated, compared with no implementation, with lower monthly counts of both suspected (rate ratio [RR]: 0.82, 95% CI: 0.72–0.94. P = 0.006) and confirmed malaria cases (RR: 0.81, 95% CI: 0.71–0.93, P = 0.003), representing around 20% reduction in malaria incidence. Sensitivity analyses showed effect sizes of up to 28% after modifying model assumptions. Caution should be exercised in interpreting our findings, which may not be comparable with other studies, and may over- or underestimate impact of SMC; not all malaria cases present at health facilities, not all suspected cases are tested, and not all facilities report cases consistently. This study’s approach presents a solution for employing readily available routine data to evaluate the impact of health interventions at scale without extensive covariate data. Further efforts are needed to improve the quality of routine data in Chad and elsewhere.

The prevalence and density of asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum infections among children and adults in three communities of western Kenya

BackgroundFurther reductions in malaria incidence as more countries approach malaria elimination require the identification and treatment of asymptomatic individuals who carry mosquito-infective Plasmodium gametocytes that are responsible for furthering malaria transmission. Assessing the relationship between total parasitaemia and gametocytaemia in field surveys can provide insight as to whether detection of low-density, asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum infections with sensitive molecular methods can adequately detect the majority of infected individuals who are potentially capable of onward transmission.MethodsIn a cross-sectional survey of 1354 healthy children and adults in three communities in western Kenya across a gradient of malaria transmission (Ajigo, Webuye, and Kapsisywa–Kipsamoite), asymptomatic P. falciparum infections were screened by rapid diagnostic tests, blood smear, and quantitative PCR of dried blood spots targeting the varATS gene in genomic DNA. A multiplex quantitative reverse-transcriptase PCR assay targeting female and male gametocyte genes (pfs25, pfs230p), a gene with a transcriptional pattern restricted to asexual blood stages (piesp2), and human GAPDH was also developed to determine total parasite and gametocyte densities among parasitaemic individuals.ResultsThe prevalence of varATS-detectable asymptomatic infections was greatest in Ajigo (42%), followed by Webuye (10%). Only two infections were detected in Kapsisywa. No infections were detected in Kipsamoite. Across all communities, children aged 11–15 years account for the greatest proportion total and sub-microscopic asymptomatic infections. In younger age groups, the majority of infections were detectable by microscopy, while 68% of asymptomatically infected adults (> 21 years old) had sub-microscopic parasitaemia. Piesp2-derived parasite densities correlated poorly with microscopy-determined parasite densities in patent infections relative to varATS-based detection. In general, both male and female gametocytaemia increased with increasing varATS-derived total parasitaemia. A substantial proportion (41.7%) of individuals with potential for onward transmission had qPCR-estimated parasite densities below the limit of microscopic detection, but above the detectable limit of varATS qPCR.ConclusionsThis assessment of parasitaemia and gametocytaemia in three communities with different transmission intensities revealed evidence of a substantial sub-patent infectious reservoir among asymptomatic carriers of P. falciparum. Experimental studies are needed to definitively determine whether the low-density infections in communities such as Ajigo and Webuye contribute significantly to malaria transmission.

A Systematic Review of the Evidence on the Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Mass Screen-and-Treat Interventions for Malaria Control.

ABSTRACT.Malaria elimination and eradication efforts have stalled globally. Further, asymptomatic infections as silent transmission reservoirs are considered a major challenge to malaria elimination efforts. There is increased interest in a mass screen-and-treat (MSAT) strategy as an alternative to mass drug administration to reduce malaria burden and transmission in endemic settings. This study systematically synthesized the existing evidence on MSAT, from both epidemiological and economic perspectives. Searches were conducted on six databases (PubMed, EMBASE, CINALH, Web of Science, Global Health, and Google Scholar) between October and December 2020. Only experimental and quasi-experimental studies assessing the effectiveness and/or cost-effectiveness of MSAT in reducing malaria prevalence or incidence were included. Of the 2,424 citation hits, 14 studies based on 11 intervention trials were eligible. Eight trials were conducted in sub-Saharan Africa and three trials in Asia. While five trials targeted the community as a whole, pregnant women were targeted in five trials, and school children in one trial. Transmission setting, frequency, and timing of MSAT rounds, and measured outcomes varied across studies. The pooled effect size of MSAT in reducing malaria incidence and prevalence was marginal and statistically nonsignificant. Only one study conducted an economic evaluation of the intervention and found it to be cost-effective when compared with the standard of care of no MSAT. We concluded that the evidence for implementing MSAT as part of a routine malaria control program is growing but limited. More research is necessary on its short- and longer-term impacts on clinical malaria and malaria transmission and its economic value.

Monthly biological larviciding associated with a tenfold decrease in larval density in fish farming ponds and reduced community-wide malaria incidence in northwestern Brazil

BackgroundLarvicides are typically applied to fixed and findable mosquito breeding sites, such as fish farming ponds used in commercial aquaculture, to kill immature forms and thereby reduce the size of adult malaria vector populations. However, there is little evidence suggesting that larviciding may suppress community-wide malaria transmission outside Africa. Here, we tested whether the biological larvicide VectoMax FG applied at monthly intervals to fish farming ponds can reduce malaria incidence in Amazonian Brazil.MethodsThis study was carried out in Vila Assis Brasil (VAB; population 1700), a peri-urban malaria hotspot in northwestern Brazil with a baseline annual parasite incidence of 553 malaria cases per 1000 inhabitants. The intervention consisted of monthly treatments with 20 kg/ha of VectoMax FG of all water-filled fish ponds in VAB (n ranging between 167 and 170) with a surface area between 20 and 8000 m2, using knapsack power mistblowers. We used single-group interrupted time-series analysis to compare monthly larval density measurements in fish ponds during a 14-month pre-intervention period (September 2017–October 2018), with measurements made during November 2018–October 2019 and shortly after the 12-month intervention (November 2019). We used interrupted time-series analysis with a comparison group to contrast the malaria incidence trends in VAB and nearby nonintervention localities before and during the intervention.ResultsAverage larval densities decreased tenfold in treated fish farming ponds, from 0.467 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.444–0.490) anopheline larvae per dip pre-intervention (September 2017–October 2018) to 0.046 (95% CI, 0.041–0.051) larvae per dip during (November 2018–October 2019) and shortly after the intervention (November 2019). Average malaria incidence rates decreased by 0.08 (95% CI, 0.04–0.11) cases per 100 person-months (P < 0.0001) during the intervention in VAB and remained nearly unchanged in comparison localities. We estimate that the intervention averted 24.5 (95% CI, 6.2–42.8) malaria cases in VAB between January and December 2019.ConclusionsRegular larviciding is associated with a dramatic decrease in larval density and a modest but significant decrease in community-wide malaria incidence. Larviciding may provide a valuable complementary vector control strategy in commercial aquaculture settings across the Amazon.Graphical abstract

Improvements in malaria testing and treatment after a national community health worker program in rural Liberia

Background Progress in reducing malaria incidence and deaths has stalled, in part due to limited access to quality malaria testing and treatment amongst rural populations. This time-series analysis aims to describe changes in rural malaria diagnosis and treatment before and during the rollout of Liberia’s National Community Health Assistant (CHA) program. It also explores how malaria service delivery changed during the COVID-19 epidemic. Methods Malaria diagnosis and treatment data from 315 rural health facility catchments supported by Liberia’s National CHA Program were collected from Liberia’s Health Management Information System and analyzed. Trends in malaria service delivery coverage and quality were assessed between January 2011 and December 2020. Results By 2020, four years after the program’s introduction, Liberia’s Community Health Assistants diagnosed 50% of rapid diagnostic test (RDT) or microscopy-confirmed malaria cases and carried out 51% of malaria treatments amongst children under age five in rural areas where CHAs were present. Furthermore, the percentage of malaria diagnoses that were confirmed by microscopy or RDT increased from 71% prior to the program to 95% in 2020. These results were effectively sustained in rural and remote communities during COVID-19 in 2020. Conclusions The introduction of Liberia’s CHA program was associated with improvements in the quality of malaria diagnoses and contributed to treating a significant share of the malaria burden amongst children under age five in remote rural communities across Liberia, and these improvements were sustained during COVID-19. Investments made in rural community health systems can be leveraged by policy makers to strengthen malaria diagnosis, treatment and control, especially in the age of COVID-19.

Factors Affecting Willingness to Use Indoor Residual Spraying Among Pregnant Women Attending Antenatal Care in Hyperendemic State of West Africa: A Random Survey.

This study assessed the perception of pregnant women on indoor residual spraying (IRS), documented acceptability, and factors that significantly dictate willingness to use IRS among the pregnant women attending antenatal clinic in Ibadan Nigeria. A structured questionnaire was used to obtain relevant information from 500 pregnant women. Descriptive and principal component analysis (PCA) were done at 5% level of significance. Majority of the pregnant women had between good and fair knowledge of IRS. Less than 70% of the respondents were willing to allow IRS in their homes. Our PCA revealed that major factors responsible for acceptance and willingness to use IRS were associated with perceived benefits, advantages, and disadvantages of IRS rather than overall knowledge of IRS among the respondents. The analysis revealed that these factors were responsible for at least 80% of the reasons for a pregnant woman to willingly accept IRS or not. The factors that positively influenced willingness to use IRS include its benefit in controlling mosquitoes and other insects, reducing malaria incidence, and prolonged effects of IRS which is an added advantage over continuous purchase of aerosols. One major factor that may negatively affect the acceptance of IRS is the fact that you may have to pack out of the house and wait for more than 3 d before entering. This current study has identified some specific factors that seem to promote and/or reduce willingness to accept IRS as a malaria control intervention among pregnant women in South Western Nigeria.

Mapping socioeconomic inequalities in malaria in Sub-Sahara African countries

Despite reductions in malaria incidence and mortality across Sub-Saharan (SSA) countries, malaria control and elimination efforts are currently facing multiple global challenges such as climate and land use change, invasive vectors, and disruptions in healthcare delivery. Although relationships between malaria risks and socioeconomic factors have been widely demonstrated, the strengths and variability of these associations have not been quantified across SSA. In this study, we used data from population-based malaria indicator surveys in SSA countries to assess spatial trends in relative and absolute socioeconomic inequalities, analyzed as social (mothers’ highest educational level—MHEL) and economic (wealth index—WI) inequalities in malaria prevalence. To capture spatial variations in socioeconomic (represented by both WI and MHEL) inequalities in malaria, we calculated both the Slope Index of Inequality (SII) and Relative Index of Inequality (RII) in each administrative region. We also conducted cluster analyses based on Local Indicator of Spatial Association (LISA) to consider the spatial auto-correlation in SII and RII across regions and countries. A total of 47,404 participants in 1874 Primary Sampling Units (PSU) were analyzed across the 13 SSA countries. Our multi-country assessment provides estimations of strong socioeconomic inequalities between and within SSA countries. Such within- and between- countries inequalities varied greatly according to the socioeconomic metric and the scale used. Countries located in Eastern Africa showed a higher median Slope Index of Inequality (SII) and Relative Index of Inequality (RII) in malaria prevalence relative to WI in comparison to countries in other locations across SSA. Pockets of high SII in malaria prevalence in relation to WI and MHEL were observed in the East part of Africa. This study was able to map this wide range of malaria inequality metrics at a very local scale and highlighted the spatial clustering patterns of pockets of high and low malaria inequality values.

Mass Drug Administration With Artemisinin-Piperaquine for the Elimination of Residual Foci of Malaria in São Tomé Island

Background: Mass drug administration with artemisinin-piperaquine (AP-MDA) is being considered for elimination of residual foci of malaria in Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Principe.Methods: Three monthly rounds of AP-MDA were implemented from July to October 2019. Four zones were selected. A and B were selected as a study site and a control site, respectively. C and D were located within 1.5 and 1.5 km away from the study site, respectively. Parasite prevalence, malaria incidence, and the proportion of the Plasmodium falciparum malaria cases were evaluated.Results: After 3 monthly rounds of AP-MDA, the parasite prevalence and the gametocyte carriage rate of P. falciparum in zone A decreased from 28.29(‰) to 0 and 4.99(‰) to 0, respectively. Compared to zone B, the relative risk for the population with Plasmodium falciparum malaria in zone A was lower (RR = 0.458, 95% CI: 0.146–1.437). Malaria incidence fell from 290.49(‰) (the same period of the previous year) to 15.27(‰) (from the 29th week in 2019 to the 14th week in 2020), a decrease of 94.74% in zone A, and from 31.74 to 5.46(‰), a decline of 82.80% in zone B. Compared to the data of the same period the previous year, the cumulative number of P. falciparum malaria cases were lower, decreasing from 165 to 10 in zone A and from 17 to 4 in zone B. The proportion of the P. falciparum malaria cases on the total malaria cases of the country decreased of 90.16% in zone A and 71.34% in zone C.Conclusion: AP-MDA greatly curbed malaria transmission by reducing malaria incidence in the study site and simultaneously creating a knock-on effect of malaria control within 1.5 km of the study site and within the limited time interval of 38 weeks.

Assessment of a combined strategy of seasonal malaria chemoprevention and supplementation with vitamin A, zinc and Plumpy\u2019Doz\u2122 to prevent malaria and malnutrition in children under 5 years old in Burkina Faso: a randomized open-label trial (SMC-NUT)

BackgroundMalaria and malnutrition represent major public health concerns worldwide especially in Sub-Sahara Africa. Despite implementation of seasonal malaria chemoprophylaxis (SMC), an intervention aimed at reducing malaria incidence among children aged 3–59 months, the burden of malaria and associated mortality among children below age 5 years remains high in Burkina Faso. Malnutrition, in particular micronutrient deficiency, appears to be one of the potential factors that can negatively affect the effectiveness of SMC. Treating micronutrient deficiencies is known to reduce the incidence of malaria in highly prevalent malaria zone such as rural settings. Therefore, we hypothesized that a combined strategy of SMC together with a daily oral nutrients supplement will enhance the immune response and decrease the incidence of malaria and malnutrition among children under SMC coverage.MethodsChildren (6–59 months) under SMC coverage receiving vitamin A supplementation will be randomly assigned to one of the three study arms (a) SMC + vitamin A alone, (b) SMC + vitamin A + zinc, or (c) SMC + vitamin A + Plumpy’Doz™ using 1:1:1 allocation ratio. After each SMC monthly distribution, children will be visited at home to confirm drug administration and followed-up for 1 year. Anthropometric indicators will be recorded at each visit and blood samples will be collected for microscopy slides, haemoglobin measurement, and spotted onto filter paper for further PCR analyses. The primary outcome measure is the incidence of malaria in each arm. Secondary outcome measures will include mid-upper arm circumference and weight gain from baseline measurements, coverage and compliance to SMC, occurrence of adverse events (AEs), and prevalence of molecular markers of antimalarial resistance comprising Pfcrt, Pfmdr1, Pfdhfr, and Pfdhps.DiscussionThis study will demonstrate an integrated strategy of malaria and malnutrition programmes in order to mutualize resources for best impact. By relying on existing strategies, the policy implementation of this joint intervention will be scalable at country and regional levels.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT04238845. Registered on 23 January 2020https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04238845

Eliminating malaria from the margins of transmission in Southern Africa through the Elimination 8 Initiative

Four southern Africa countries, namely, Botswana, Eswatini, Namibia and South Africa, were identified by the World Health Organization as having the potential to eliminate malaria in the near future. However, the extreme interconnectedness of southern African countries facilitates the constant movement of malaria parasites across country-borders, predominately from higher-burden “source” countries to lower-burden “sink” countries, reinforcing the notion that malaria elimination in any southern African country would not be possible without regional cooperation and collaboration. The Elimination 8 initiative (E8) was therefore, created by Health Ministers from eight countries (Angola, Botswana, Eswatini, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe) to coordinate the implementation of a regional malaria elimination strategy. The E8 supported the implementation of five cross-border malaria control initiatives and the deployment of malaria health units at strategic points along shared borders. These units have contributed to a 30% and 46% reduction in malaria incidence and mortality, respectively, in the E8 border regions. The Situation Room, a novel data sharing platform developed and supported by the E8, has allowed for the early detection of and prompt response to malaria outbreaks. This platform played a vital role in identifying resources gaps due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite advancing the elimination agenda, the E8 region faces challenges which include, significant increases in malaria in certain member states, limited domestic funding and health system bottlenecks. These must be urgently addressed if the gains made through the E8 are to be sustained and malaria elimination is to be achieved across southern Africa.

Comparing malaria early detection methods in a declining transmission setting in northwestern Ethiopia

BackgroundDespite remarkable progress in the reduction of malaria incidence, this disease remains a public health threat to a significant portion of the world’s population. Surveillance, combined with early detection algorithms, can be an effective intervention strategy to inform timely public health responses to potential outbreaks. Our main objective was to compare the potential for detecting malaria outbreaks by selected event detection methods.MethodsWe used historical surveillance data with weekly counts of confirmed Plasmodium falciparum (including mixed) cases from the Amhara region of Ethiopia, where there was a resurgence of malaria in 2019 following several years of declining cases. We evaluated three methods for early detection of the 2019 malaria events: 1) the Centers for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC) Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS), 2) methods based on weekly statistical thresholds, including the WHO and Cullen methods, and 3) the Farrington methods.ResultsAll of the methods evaluated performed better than a naïve random alarm generator. We also found distinct trade-offs between the percent of events detected and the percent of true positive alarms. CDC EARS and weekly statistical threshold methods had high event sensitivities (80–100% CDC; 57–100% weekly statistical) and low to moderate alarm specificities (25–40% CDC; 16–61% weekly statistical). Farrington variants had a wide range of scores (20–100% sensitivities; 16–100% specificities) and could achieve various balances between sensitivity and specificity.ConclusionsOf the methods tested, we found that the Farrington improved method was most effective at maximizing both the percent of events detected and true positive alarms for our dataset (> 70% sensitivity and > 70% specificity). This method uses statistical models to establish thresholds while controlling for seasonality and multi-year trends, and we suggest that it and other model-based approaches should be considered more broadly for malaria early detection.

Retrospective evaluation of the effectiveness of indoor residual spray with pirimiphos\u2010methyl (Actellic) on malaria transmission in Zambia

BackgroundWidespread insecticide resistance to pyrethroids could thwart progress towards elimination. Recently, the World Health Organization has encouraged the use of non-pyrethroid insecticides to reduce the spread of insecticide resistance. An electronic tool for implementing and tracking coverage of IRS campaigns has recently been tested (mSpray), using satellite imagery to improve the accuracy and efficiency of the enumeration process. The purpose of this paper is to retrospectively analyse cross-sectional observational data to provide evidence of the epidemiological effectiveness of having introduced Actellic 300CS and the mSpray platform into IRS programmes across Zambia.MethodsHealth facility catchment areas in 40 high burden districts in 5 selected provinces were initially targeted for spraying. The mSpray platform was used in 7 districts in Luapula Province. An observational study design was used to assess the relationship between IRS exposure and confirmed malaria case incidence. A random effects Poisson model was used to quantify the effect of IRS (with and without use of the mSpray platform) on confirmed malaria case incidence over the period 2013–2017; analysis was restricted to the 4 provinces where IRS was conducted in each year 2014–2016.ResultsIRS was conducted in 283 health facility catchment areas from 2014 to 2016; 198 health facilities from the same provinces, that received no IRS during this period, served as a comparison. IRS appears to be associated with reduced confirmed malaria incidence; the incidence rate ratio (IRR) was lower in areas with IRS but without mSpray, compared to areas with no IRS (IRR = 0.91, 95% CI 0.84–0.98). Receiving IRS with mSpray significantly lowered confirmed case incidence (IRR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.66–0.86) compared to no IRS. IRS with mSpray resulted in lower incidence compared to IRS without mSpray (IRR = 0.83, 95% CI 0.72–0.95).ConclusionsIRS using Actellic-CS appears to substantially reduce malaria incidence in Zambia. The use of the mSpray tool appears to improve the effectiveness of the IRS programme, possibly through improved population level coverage. The results of this study lend credence to the anecdotal evidence of the effectiveness of 3GIRS using Actellic, and the importance of exploring new platforms for improving effective population coverage of areas targeted for spraying.

Climate change and the dynamics of age-related malaria incidence in Southern Africa

In the last decade, many malaria-endemic countries, like Zambia, have achieved significant reductions in malaria incidence among children <5 years old but face ongoing challenges in achieving similar progress against malaria in older age groups. In parts of Zambia, changing climatic and environmental factors are among those suspectedly behind high malaria incidence. Changes and variations in these factors potentially interfere with intervention program effectiveness and alter the distribution and incidence patterns of malaria differentially between young children and the rest of the population.We used parametric and non-parametric statistics to model the effects of climatic and socio-demographic variables on age-specific malaria incidence vis-à-vis control interventions. Linear regressions, mixed models, and Mann-Kendall tests were implemented to explore trends, changes in trends, and regress malaria incidence against environmental and intervention variables.Our study shows that while climate parameters affect the whole population, their impacts are felt most by people aged ≥5 years. Climate variables influenced malaria substantially more than mosquito nets and indoor residual spraying interventions. We establish that climate parameters negatively impact malaria control efforts by exacerbating the transmission conditions via more conducive temperature and rainfall environments, which are augmented by cultural and socioeconomic exposure mechanisms. We argue that an intensified communications and education intervention strategy for behavioural change specifically targeted at ≥5 aged population where incidence rates are increasing, is urgently required and call for further malaria stratification among the ≥5 age groups in the routine collection, analysis and reporting of malaria mortality and incidence data.

Agent-based modeling of malaria control through mosquito aquatic habitats management in a traditional sub-Sahara grouping

BackgroundAfricans pour dirty water around their houses which constitutes aquatic habitats (AH). These AH are sought by mosquitoes for larval development. Recent studies have shown the effectiveness of destroying AH around houses in reducing malaria incidence. An agent-based model is proposed for controlling malaria’s incidence through population sensitizing campaigns on the harmful effects of AH around houses.MethodsThe environment is constituted of houses, AH, mosquitoes, humans, and hospital. Malaria’s spread dynamic is linked to the dynamics of humans and mosquitoes. The mosquito’s dynamic is represented by egg-laying and seeking blood. The human’s dynamic is animated by hitting mosquitoes. AH are destroyed each time by 10% of their starting number. The number of infected humans varied from 0-90 which led to a total of 1001 simulations.ResultsWhen the number of houses and AH is equal, the results are approximate as the field data. At each reduction of AH, the incidence and prevalence tend more and more towards 0. When there is no AH and infected humans, the prevalence and incidence are at 0.ConclusionsWhen there is no AH site, the disease disappears completely. Global destruction of AH in an environment and using many parameters in the same model are recommended.

Digitized smart surveillance and micromanagement using information technology for malaria elimination in Mangaluru, India: an analysis of five-year post-digitization data

BackgroundMalaria control system (MCS), an Information technology (IT)-driven surveillance and monitoring intervention is being adopted for elimination of malaria in Mangaluru city, Karnataka, India since October 2015. This has facilitated ‘smart surveillance’ followed by required field response within a timeline. The system facilitated data collection of individual case, data driven mapping and strategies for malaria elimination programme. This paper aims to present the analysis of post-digitization data of 5 years, discuss the current operational functionalities of MCS and its impact on the malaria incidence.MethodsIT system developed for robust malaria surveillance and field response is being continued in the sixth year. Protocol for surveillance control was followed as per the national programme guidelines mentioned in an earlier publication. Secondary data from the malaria control system was collated and analysed. Incidence of malaria, active surveillance, malariogenic conditions and its management, malariometric indices, shrinking malaria maps were also analysed.ResultsSmart surveillance and subsequent response for control was sustained and performance improved in five years with participation of all stakeholders. Overall malaria incidence significantly reduced by 83% at the end of 5 years when compared with year of digitization (DY) (p < 0.001). Early reporting of new cases (within 48 h) was near total followed by complete treatment and vector control. Slide positivity rate (SPR) decreased from 10.36 (DY) to 6.5 (PDY 5). Annual parasite incidence (API) decreased from 16.17 (DY) to 2.64 (PDY 5). There was a negative correlation between contact smears and incidence of malaria. Five-year data analyses indicated declining trends in overall malaria incidence and correlation between closures by 14 days. The best impact on reduction in incidence of malaria was recorded in the pre-monsoon months (~ 85%) compared to lower impact in July–August months (~ 40%).ConclusionMCS helped to micromanage control activities, such as robust reporting, incidence-centric active surveillance, early and complete treatment, documentation of full treatment of each malaria patient, targeted mosquito control measures in houses surrounding reported cases. The learnings and analytical output from the data helped to modify strategies for control of both disease and the vector, heralding the city into the elimination stage.