Reduce HIV Incidence Research Articles

Population-Level Effectiveness of HIV Pre-exposure Prophylaxis Among MSM and Transgender Persons With Bacterial Sexually Transmitted Infections.

Background:Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is highly efficacious, but its effectiveness may be limited by poor adherence or discontinuation. Our objective was to estimate the effectiveness of real-world PrEP use in a population at increased risk of HIV infection.Setting:King County, Washington.Methods:We conducted a retrospective cohort study using sexually transmitted infection (STI) partner services (PS) interview data collected January 2014–August 2018 in King County, Washington, USA. During PS interviews, men who have sex with men and transgender persons who have sex with men were asked if they were taking PrEP. We linked STI PS data to HIV surveillance data to estimate HIV incidence among self-reported PrEP users vs. nonusers using Cox proportional hazards regression, adjusting for age, race/ethnicity, and calendar year.Results:Among 4368 individuals, 1206 (28%) were taking PrEP at the time of the PS interview. The median observation time was 14 months (interquartile range 6–23 months). Five (0.4%) of 1206 PrEP users and 97 (3%) of 2162 PrEP nonusers were subsequently diagnosed with HIV (P < 0.001). HIV incidence was lower among PrEP users than nonusers [0.17 vs. 1.86 cases per 100 person-years, adjusted hazards ratio 0.21 (95% confidence interval: 0.08 to 0.58)]. Latinx ethnicity, Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander ethnicity, gonorrhea, and syphilis were also independently associated with higher HIV risk.Conclusions:Self-reported PrEP use was associated with a 79% reduction in HIV incidence among men who have sex with men and transgender persons who have sex with men with STIs in King County.

Modeling Cash Plus Other Psychosocial and Structural Interventions to Prevent HIV Among Adolescent Girls and Young Women in South Africa (HPTN 068)

Poverty alleviation programs can reduce HIV incidence but may have greater impacts when combined with other psychosocial interventions. We modeled the change in HIV incidence among South African adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) associated with combining a cash transfer (the South African Child Support Grant (CSG)) with other structural and behavioral interventions. We modeled observational data from the HPTN 068 study where 2328 HIV negative AGYW (13–20 years) were followed for 4 years. In a Monte Carlo simulation based on this cohort (N = 10,000), CSG receipt was not independently associated with HIV incidence. Providing the CSG combined with increasing caregiver care and reducing adolescent depression had the largest reduction in HIV incidence with the fewest number of combined interventions (RD − 3.0%; (95% CI − 5.1%, − 0.9%). Combining a monthly grant with interventions to increase caregiver care and reduce adolescent depression could substantially reduce HIV incidence above the provision of cash alone.

Socio-demographic associations of HIV among women attending antenatal care in selected rural primary care facilities in South Africa\u2019s Eastern Cape province

BackgroundTo effectively reduce vertical HIV transmission requires a reduction of HIV prevalence and incidence among pregnant women and a full understanding of its epidemiology. The study aimed to determine the prevalence of HIV among women attending antenatal care and further determine spousal support during antenatal care attendance in rural areas in Eastern Cape province, South Africa.MethodsA Cross-sectional study of women attending antenatal care in four Primary Care facilities was conducted using an interviewer-administered questionnaire which collected information on socio-demographic characteristics and medical history. Binomial logistic regression analyses were used to determine factors associated with HIV and to estimate the prevalence ratio (PR). The 95% confidence interval (95%CI) is used for precision of estimates; p≤0.05 for statistical significance.ResultsA total of 343 participants were included in the final analysis. The antenatal HIV prevalence was 38.2% (95%CI: 33.2–43.9). For 75% of the women, the HIV diagnosis was made 141 days before the date of the interview (median=77 days, interquartile range=42–141 days). Participants between the age of 30 to 39 years were 50% more likely to be HIV positive compared to those who were between the age of 20 to 29, these differences were statistically significant (PR=1.5; p-value=0.001). Furthermore, self-employed women were 30% less likely to be HIV positive when compared to unemployed participants, this was also statistically significant (PR=0.7; p-value< 0.0001).ConclusionDespite a 100% antenatal HIV testing rate, the antenatal HIV prevalence remains high in this population, coupled with no spousal attendance in antenatal care. It is important to move beyond awareness about the HIV status to actionable strategies of reducing the HIV incident cases. It is therefore important to remain vigilant and monitor mother-to-child transmission that could be associated with this increased prevalence.

Antiretroviral Therapy Use and HIV Transmission Among Discordant Couples in Nonresearch Settings in Kigali, Rwanda.

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) efficacy for HIV prevention among discordant couples has been demonstrated in clinical trials. Effectiveness outside of research settings is less well understood. HIV-discordant couples were enrolled in couples' testing and follow-up at 20 government clinics in Kigali from 2010 to 2014. We performed viral linkage analysis on seroconverting couples to determine infection sources (intracouple vs. extracouple). Antiretroviral therapy use in index partners was collected at baseline and during follow-up by self-report with verification of government medical records. A total of 3777 HIV-discordant couples were identified and followed up at government health clinics. Fifty-four incident HIV infections were identified, of which 36 were confirmed linked to the index partner, 4 were unlinked, and 14 were unknown. Among the 50 linked or unknown transmission pairs, 38% occurred among couples in which the index partner was on ART (HIV incidence rate of 0.63/100 person-years), whereas 62% occurred among couples in which the index partner was not on ART (HIV incidence rate of 5.51/100 person-years; adjusted rate ratio, 6.9). HIV acquisition was higher in women than in men with non-ART using index partners (P < 0.001). Couples in a government clinic couples' HIV testing and follow-up program in Rwanda had an 89% reduction in HIV incidence when index partners were using ART, slightly lower than efficacy estimates from randomized trials. Antiretroviral therapy for prevention should be prioritized for key populations including discordant couples identified via couples' voluntary counseling and testing, with increased efforts to improve uptake, adherence, and viral load monitoring.

A Scoping Review of HIV Pre-exposure Prophylaxis Stigma and Implications for Stigma-Reduction Interventions for Men and Transwomen Who Have Sex with Men.

HIV remains a public health concern in the United States. Although pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) can be expected to reduce HIV incidence, its uptake, adherence, and persistence remain limited, particularly among highest priority groups such as men who have sex with men and transwomen (MSMTW). Using a socioecological framework, we conducted a scoping review to examine PrEP-related stigma to inform future research, policy, and programmatic planning. Using the PRISMA extension for scoping reviews, we conducted database searches from August 2018 to April 2020 for articles addressing PrEP stigma. Studies were independently screened and coded by three authors, resulting in thematic categorization of several types of PrEP stigma on four socioecological levels. Of 557 references, a final sample of 23 studies was coded, 61% qualitative, and 87% focusing exclusively on MSMTW. Most instances of PrEP-related stigma occurred on the interpersonal level and included associations of PrEP with risk promotion, HIV-related stigma, and promiscuity. Other frequent themes across socioecological levels included provider distrust and discrimination, government and pharmaceutical industry distrust, internalized homonegativity, PrEP efficacy distrust, and anticipated homonegativity. Notably, PrEP was also framed positively as having physical and psychological benefits, and assuming responsibility for protecting one's community via PrEP awareness-raising. PrEP-related stigma persists, demanding interventions to modify its impact. Leveraging PrEP-positive discourses to challenge PrEP stigma is an emerging avenue, alongside efforts to increase provider willingness to promote PrEP routinely by reducing provider bias, aligning with the national strategy to End the HIV Epidemic.

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) awareness, attitudes and uptake willingness among young people: gender differences and associated factors in two South African districts

ABSTRACT Background: Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention is safe and effective in reducing HIV incidence. However, more evidence of PrEP knowledge, willingness and distribution preferences is required for scale-up among young people at-risk. Objective: To understand young people PrEP awareness, willingness and roll-out preferences. Methods: Young people (18–24y) were selected through multi-stage sampling in a cross-sectional household survey in low-income communities. Self-administered interviews collected participants’ data about PrEP awareness, attitudes, willingness and HIV-risk practices. Data were descriptively analysed by gender. Regression models assessed factors associated with PrEP awareness and willingness by district. Results: Of the 1917 participants interviewed 44.6% (men = 39.4% vs women = 49%, p = 0.001) were PrEP aware, 49.0% were willing to use PrEP. Participants most preferred PrEP distribution channels were public clinics (51.2%) and hospitals (23.8%). More men than women preferred distribution through schools (11.9% vs7.8%; p = 0.002) and NGOs (8.5%vs5.4%; p = 0.008). The biggest barrier to PrEP willingness was inadequate PrEP knowledge (10.0%) but more men than women disliked taking pills daily (4.1%vs2.0%; p-value = 0.007). Gendered determinants to use PrEP were side effects (51%; men = 47% vs women = 55%; p = 0.001) and pill effectiveness (29.5%; men = 26.4% vs women = 32.6%; p = 0.003). In both districts PrEP knowledge was associated with being female and media use. The associations between PrEP awareness and having multiple sexual partnerships, HIV knowledge, HIV self-test willingness and belonging to social clubs differed by district. PrEP willingness was positively associated with having TB and PrEP knowledge in each district but district differences were observed in media and occupation factors. Conclusions: The study shows young people’s low levels of PrEP awareness. It also shows relatively increased willingness, gendered PrEP awareness and distribution preferences. Promoting youth’s PrEP awareness requires a multifarious media strategy. Abbreviations: HIV: human immunodeficiency virus; AIDS: Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome; aOR: Adjusted Odds ratio; PLWH: People living with HIV; PrEP: Pre-exposure Prophylaxis; UNAIDS: Joint United Nations Programme on HIV and AIDS; uOR: Unadjusted odds ratio; TB: Tuberculosis; WHO: World health Organisation; MSM: Men who have sex with men

‘There is no more future for me? Like really, are you kidding?’: agency and decision-making in early motherhood in an urban area in Johannesburg, South Africa

ABSTRACT Background: The South African development goals for young women aged 15 to 24 are to reduce HIV incidence, teenage pregnancy and gender-based violence, and to increase school completion and economic security. Early, unintended pregnancy undermines these goals, creating discourses of early motherhood that position young women as powerless. There has been scant attention on the agency of young women in their structural context. Objective: This study explored how young women exercise agency after an unintended pregnancy and make decisions concerning their future, including sexual and reproductive health, school completion and/or income generation, and caregiving for their babies. Methods: I used narrative analysis to explore the lived experiences of young mothers, paying attention to decision-making during pregnancy and motherhood. Domains of analysis included health care, education, and caregiving. I conducted in-depth interviews with 30 young mothers: 30 were interviewed once, nine were interviewed twice, and six were interviewed three times. I interviewed four significant people in the lives of young mothers and six health care providers at a health centre. Results: Progressive policy facilitates increased access to services for young pregnant and parenting women. However, education and health care providers continue to discriminate against them, formally through denying them access to services and informally through discourses of shame which pervade their structural context. Kinship capital in urban and rural contexts and the Child Support Grant mitigate some struggles in early motherhood and help young mothers navigate decision-making. Conclusion: Young mothers exercise agency along a continuum to realise their aspirations. Social and structural support mediate their agency. Policy needs to expand the focus from prevention to include issues of care and support after an early, unintended pregnancy to ensure the health and wellbeing of young mothers and their children.

HIV criminalisation laws and ending the US HIV epidemic

The USA has initiated plans to reduce HIV incidence by 90% over the next 10 years through the Ending the HIV Epidemic Initiative. To succeed, the nation will need to not only overcome the scientific and programmatic barriers to testing, treatment, and prevention, but also to address the legal obstacles, racial discrimination, economic disadvantage, and homophobia that underpin many of the disparities that are prevalent in the HIV epidemic. These social barriers directly prevent access to services and indirectly impede efforts to change HIV from an exceptional, stigmatised disease to a preventable and treatable infection.

HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance in Brighton, UK, from 2014 to 2020.

HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance (TDR) is associated with transmission in men who have sex with men (MSM), non MSM clusters, sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and can lead to antiretroviral failure. UK guidelines recommend performing TDR testing in all newly-diagnosed people living with HIV. We audited performance of TDR in our large tertiary HIV department from 2014-2020. All new patients had TDR testing attempted in the study period. The rate of TDR was 8% and was associated with increasing age and having non-B subtype. Having non-B subtype was not associated with being non-UK born. Thirty-four percent of people were diagnosed with a bacterial STI at the time of HIV diagnosis, but STI diagnosis was not associated with TDR. There was no significant change in TDR over the 6-year audit period. TDR remains a small but significant problem. Identifying these populations and providing effective HIV prevention interventions will reduce HIV incidence and TDR.

Patterns of PrEP Retention Among HIV Pre-exposure Prophylaxis Users in Baltimore City, Maryland.

HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) retention, defined as quarterly clinical evaluation, is critical to reducing HIV incidence. Our objectives were to determine: (1) visit- and individual-level PrEP retention patterns; (2) and individual-level characteristics associated with low-level PrEP retention 12 months after initiation among PrEP users in Baltimore City, Maryland. Information was abstracted from medical records among individuals initiating PrEP between October 1, 2015 and February 28, 2018. Visit-level PrEP retention was defined as evidence of PrEP use, documented PrEP prescription, or current PrEP use at each quarterly follow-up visit. Low-level PrEP retention was defined as <3/4 quarters with documented PrEP use. Multilevel mixed effects Poisson regression was used to determine characteristics associated with low-level PrEP retention. Among 412 individuals initiating PrEP and followed for 12 months, the majority was: cis-gender male (83.7%, n = 345), non-Hispanic Black (56.3%, n = 232) and gay, bisexual, or other man who has sex with men (74.0%, n = 305). By quarterly visits, PrEP retention was: 3-month: 69.4% (n = 286); 6-month: 51.9% (n = 214); 9-month: 44.5% (n = 183); and 12-month: 41.1% (n = 169). Three-fifths (58.5%, n = 241) had low-level PrEP retention. Cis-gender females (vs. cis-gender males) (adjusted relative risk: 1.36, 95% confidence interval: 1.04 to 1.77) were more likely to have low-level PrEP retention. Our observed PrEP retention rates are lower than what may be needed to reduce HIV incidence. Future research should examine individual- and clinic-level barriers and facilitators to PrEP retention programs by key population to inform interventions for PrEP retention.

\u201cI think everybody should take it if they\u2019re doing drugs, doing heroin, or having sex for money\u201d: a qualitative study exploring perceptions of pre-exposure prophylaxis among female participants in an opioid intervention court program

BackgroundWomen’s rise in opioid use disorder has increased their presence in the criminal justice system and related risk behaviors for HIV infection. Although pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an effective biomedical HIV prevention treatment, uptake among this high-risk population has been particularly low. Considerably little is known about the interplay between justice-involved women with opioid use disorder and HIV prevention. The aim of this study was to explore PrEP knowledge, attitudes, and perceptions for personal and partner use among women participants in the nation’s first ever opioid intervention court program.MethodsThe authors conducted semi-structured, in-depth interviews with 31 women recruited from an Opioid Intervention Court, a recent fast-track treatment response to combat overdose deaths. We utilized a consensual qualitative research approach to explore attitudes, perceptions, and preferences about PrEP from women at risk for HIV transmission via sexual and drug-related behavior and used thematic analysis methods to code and interpret the data.ResultsPrEP interest and motivation were impacted by various factors influencing the decision to consider PrEP initiation or comfort with partner use. Three primary themes emerged: HIV risk perceptions, barriers and facilitators to personal PrEP utilization, and perspectives on PrEP use by sexual partners.ConclusionsFindings suggest courts may provide a venue to offer women PrEP education and HIV risk assessments. Study findings inform public health, substance use, and criminal justice research and practice with justice-involved participants experiencing opioid use disorder on the development of gender-specific PrEP interventions with the ultimate goal of reducing HIV incidence.

Assessing the use of surveillance data to estimate the impact of prevention interventions on HIV incidence in cluster-randomized controlled trials

BackgroundIn cluster-randomized controlled trials (C-RCTs) of HIV prevention strategies, HIV incidence is expensive to measure directly. Surveillance data on HIV diagnoses or viral suppression could provide cheaper incidence estimates. We used mathematical modelling to evaluate whether these measures can replace HIV incidence measurement in C-RCTs. MethodsWe used a US HIV transmission model to simulate C-RCTs of expanded antiretroviral therapy(ART), pre-exposure prophylaxis(PrEP) and HIV testing, together or alone. We tested whether modelled reductions in total new HIV diagnoses, diagnoses with acute infection, diagnoses with early infection(CD4 > 500 cells/μl), diagnoses adjusted for testing volume, or the proportion virally non-suppressed, reflected HIV incidence reductions. ResultsOver a two-year trial expanding PrEP alone, modelled reductions in total diagnoses underestimated incidence reductions by a median six percentage points(pp), with acceptable variability(95 % credible interval -14,-2pp). For trials expanding HIV testing alone or alongside ART + PrEP, greater, highly variable bias was seen[-20pp(-128,-1) and -30pp(-134,-16), respectively]. Acceptable levels of bias were only seen over longer trial durations when levels of awareness of HIV-positive status were already high. Expanding ART alone, only acute and early diagnoses reductions reflected incidence reduction well, with some bias[-3pp(-6,-1) and -8pp(-16,-3), respectively]. Early and adjusted diagnoses also reliably reflected incidence when scaling up PrEP alone[bias -5pp(-11,1) and 10pp(3,18), respectively]. For trials expanding testing (alone or with ART + PrEP), bias for all measures explored was too variable for them to replace direct incidence measures, unless using diagnoses when HIV status awareness was already high. ConclusionsSurveillance measures based on HIV diagnoses may sometimes be adequate surrogates for HIV incidence reduction in C-RCTs expanding ART or PrEP only, if adjusted for bias. However, all surveillance measures explored failed to approximate HIV incidence reductions for C-RCTs expanding HIV testing, unless levels of awareness of HIV-positive status were already high.

Optimal Allocation of Societal HIV Prevention Resources to Reduce HIV Incidence in the United States.

Objectives. To optimize combined public and private spending on HIV prevention to achieve maximum reductions in incidence.Methods. We used a national HIV model to estimate new infections from 2018 to 2027 in the United States. We estimated current spending on HIV screening, interventions that move persons with diagnosed HIV along the HIV care continuum, pre-exposure prophylaxis, and syringe services programs. We compared the current funding allocation with 2 optimal scenarios: (1) a limited-reach scenario with expanded efforts to serve eligible persons and (2) an ideal, unlimited-reach scenario in which all eligible persons could be served.Results. A continuation of the current allocation projects 331 000 new HIV cases over the next 10 years. The limited-reach scenario reduces that number by 69%, and the unlimited reach scenario by 94%. The most efficient funding allocations resulted in prompt diagnosis and sustained viral suppression through improved screening of high-risk persons and treatment adherence support for those infected.Conclusions. Optimal allocations of public and private funds for HIV prevention can achieve substantial reductions in new infections. Achieving reductions of more than 90% under current funding will require that virtually all infected receive sustained treatment.

PrEP discontinuation among Latino/a and Black MSM and transgender women: A need for PrEP support services.

PurposeDisparities persist in HIV infection among Black and Latino men who have sex with men (BLMSM) and Black and Latina transgender women (BLTW). Increasing uptake and subsequent consistent use of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), an effective biomedical strategy for preventing HIV acquisition, can dramatically reduce HIV incidence in these populations. The purpose of this study was to explore reasons for PrEP discontinuation among BLMSM and BLTW living in Los Angeles County to inform the development of support services for these populations to remain persistent with their PrEP regimen.MethodsIn-depth, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 15 BLMSM and 7 BLTW who reported either temporary or indefinite PrEP discontinuation. A thematic analysis approach was used to analyze qualitative data.ResultsFour themes emerged related to reasons for PrEP discontinuation, including: (1) lower perceived HIV risk related to changes in sexual behavior; (2) structural or logistical barriers (e.g., lapse or loss of health insurance, cost, difficulty navigating complex medical systems); (3) anticipated and experienced medication side effects, with a sub-theme of interactions between PrEP and feminizing hormone medications; and (4) challenges with medication adherence.ConclusionsPrEP is an important prevention tool for BLMSM and BLTW, particularly during periods of heightened HIV risk. However, both individual (e.g., inability to adhere to medication, changes in HIV sexual risk behaviors) and structural/logistical (e.g., loss of insurance, navigating complex medical systems) factors can cause temporary or indefinite PrEP discontinuation. Additional support services, beyond those offered by medical providers, are needed to help BLMSM and BLTW PrEP users overcome barriers to discontinuation and assist them to remain persistent with their PrEP regimen. We describe potential options for support services such as PrEP case management, expanded PrEP navigation services, or text messaging services.

Designing HIV Vaccine Efficacy Trials in the Context of Highly Effective Non-vaccine Prevention Modalities

The evolving HIV prevention landscape poses challenges to the statistical design of future trials of candidate HIV vaccines. Study designs must address the anticipated reduction in HIV incidence due to adding new prevention modalities to the standard prevention package provided to trial participants, and must also accommodate individual choices of participants with regard to the use of these modalities. We explore four potential trial designs that address these challenges, with a focus on accommodating the newest addition to the prevention package-antiretroviral-based oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). The designs differ with respect to how individuals who take up oral PrEP at screening are handled. An All-Comers Design enrolls and randomizes all eligible individuals, a Decliners Design enrolls and randomizes only those who decline PrEP at screening, and Single and Multi-Stage Run-In Designs enroll all but randomize only those who decline PrEP or show inadequate adherence to PrEP after one or multiple run-in periods. We compare these designs with respect to required sample sizes, study duration, and resource requirements, using a simulation model that incorporates data on HIV risk and PrEP uptake and adherence among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the Americas. We advocate considering Run-In Designs for some future contexts, and identify their advantages and tradeoffs relative to the other designs. The design concepts apply beyond HIV vaccines to other prevention modalities being developed with the aim to achieve further reductions in HIV incidence.

Impact of viral suppression among persons with HIV upon estimated HIV incidence between 2010 and 2015 in the United States.

The suppression of viremia among persons with HIV (PWH) using antiretroviral therapy has been hypothesized to reduce HIV incidence at the population level. We investigated the impact of state level viral suppression among PWH in the United States on estimated HIV incidence between 2010 and 2015. Viral suppression data and HIV incidence estimates from the National HIV Surveillance System were available from 29 states and the District of Columbia. We assumed a one year delay for viral suppression to impact incidence. Poisson regression models were used to calculate the estimated annual percent change (EAPC) in incidence rate. We employed a multivariable mixed-effects Poisson regression model to assess the effects of state level race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, percent men who have sex with men (MSM) and hepatitis C virus prevalence as a proxy for injection drug use on HIV incidence. Fitted HIV incidence for 30 jurisdictions declined from 11.5 in 2010 to 10.0 per 100,000 population by 2015 corresponding with an EAPC of -2.67 (95% confidence interval [95%CI] -2.95, -2.38). Southern states experienced the highest estimated incidence by far throughout this period but upon adjustment for viral suppression and demographics there was a 36% lower incidence rate than Northeast states (adjusted rate ratio [aRR] 0.64; 95%CI 0.42, 0.99). For every 10 percentage point (pp) increase in viral suppression there was an adjusted 4% decline in HIV incidence rate in the subsequent year (aRR 0.96; 95%CI 0.93, 0.99). While controlling for viral suppression, HIV incidence rate increased by 42% (aRR 1.42 95%CI 1.31, 1.54) for every 5 pp increase in percent Black race and by 27% (aRR 1.27 95%CI 1.10, 1.48) for every 1 pp increase in percent MSM in states. A decline in estimated HIV incidence from 2010 to 2015 was associated with increasing viral suppression in the United States. Race and sexual orientation were important HIV acquisition risk factors.

Associations Between Early Circumcision, Sexual and Protective Practices, and HIV Among a National Sample of Male Adults in Eswatini.

To reduce HIV incidence in countries such as Eswatini (Swaziland), UNAIDS has recommended male circumcision as one possible effective strategy. We analyzed the 2016s Swaziland HIV Incidence Measurement Survey to explore the association between early circumcision and HIV history among 2964 sexually active adult males aged 15 to 64years old. Early circumcision was defined as circumcision practiced at an age of 15years old or younger. Results from logistic regression and OLS regression found that male adults with early circumcision are more likely to have multiple sexual partners and to use condoms. Multiple partners and condom use at last sex encounter remained associated with a higher odds of being HIV positive after controlling for all factors. Nevertheless, early circumcision is significantly associated with a lower odds of being HIV positive (AOR 0.53, p < 0.01). These findings suggest that HIV prevention may benefit when early male circumcision is carried out.

Medication market performance analysis with help of Analytic Hierarchy Processing

This study proposes the concept of Analytic Hierarchy Processing (AHP) on the market of active substances used in treatment of HIV and checks the control factors and criteria interconnection and implements Random Forest forecasting model. The new method must help to improve the management decision-making process in the fields of healthcare government budget planning. It has become a prime concern for understanding and comparing of publicly available information with internal market data and the consequences of companies` and government`s actions in choosing the best approach for correct construction of to reduce HIV incidence in Russia. The paper develops the forecasting model of one of the parameters, which has a substantial role in decision-making process. The medication market data in this study represents the cumulative daily concluded contracts, used in treatment of HIV in Russia, the level of HIV incidence (yearly) and federal budget on healthcare (yearly). The proposed approach have more than 82% average accuracy at predicting the sum of medication contract prices at the 3-year time period. The received figures are effective in predicting the factors` behavior in future. It can be used for improved modulation of AHP and consequently, the overall accuracy of the model structure.

Joint modeling of time-varying HIV exposure and infection for estimation of per-act efficacy in HIV prevention trials.

Using the MTN-020/ASPIRE HIV prevention trial as a motivating example, our objective is to construct a joint model for the HIV exposure process through vaginal intercourse and the time to HIV infection in a population of sexually active women. By modeling participants' HIV infection in terms of exposures, rather than time exposed, our aim is to obtain a valid estimate of the per-act efficacy of a preventive intervention. Within the context of HIV prevention trials, in which the frequency of sex acts is self-reported periodically by the participants, we model the exposure process of the trial participants with a non-homogeneous Poisson process. This approach allows for variability in the rate of sexual contacts between participants as well as variability in the rate of sexual contacts over time. The time to HIV infection for each participant is modeled as the time to the exposure that results in HIV infection, based on the modeled sexual contact rate. We propose an empirical Bayes approach for estimation. We report the results of a simulation study where we evaluate the performance of our proposed approachandcompareittothetraditionalapproachofestimatingtheoverallreductioninHIVincidenceusing a Proportional Hazards Cox model. The proposed approach is also illustrated with data from the MTN-020/ASPIRE trial. The proposed joint modeling, along with the proposed empirical Bayes estimation approach, can provide valid estimation of the per-exposure efficacy of a preventive intervention.

Impact of achievement of "90-90-90" goals on reduction in new HIV infections in Shandong province based on risk estimation equation

Objective: To explore the impact of achievement of the "90-90-90" goals on reductions in HIV incidence in Shandong province. Methods: An algebraic method was developed to link new HIV infections and the "90-90-90" goals in Shandong province. The risk estimation equation was used to analyze the effect of achievement of the "90-90-90" goals on reductions of HIV incidence, and explore the impact of application of antiviral therapy based prevention and control strategy on reduction of new HIV infections. Results: If "90-90-90" goals were achieved in 2020 in Shandong compared with annual new HIV infections in 2010, the percentage of reduction would be 17.27%, 35.99% and 67.55% respectively when transmission rate decreased by 26.00%, 53.00% and 96.00% respectively. Compared with 2017, when the transmission rate decreased by 53.00%, the annual new HIV infections would has a decrease of 10.10% if the rates of diagnosis and ART reached 90.00%; the annual new HIV infections would has a decrease of 20.80% if the rates of diagnosis and viral suppression reached 90.00%; the annual new HIV infections would has a decrease of 12.29% if the rates of ART and viral suppression reached 90.00%. Conclusions: HIV incidence would decrease with the achievement of "90-90-90" goals in Shandong. Compared with the improvement of ART, the improvement in diagnosis of HIV infection and viral suppression would result in more rapid decrease of new HIV infections. Besides expanding ART coverage, more attention should be paid to the strengthening of the diagnosis of HIV infection and viral suppression in Shandong.