Abstract
This study proposes the concept of Analytic Hierarchy Processing (AHP) on the market of active substances used in treatment of HIV and checks the control factors and criteria interconnection and implements Random Forest forecasting model. The new method must help to improve the management decision-making process in the fields of healthcare government budget planning. It has become a prime concern for understanding and comparing of publicly available information with internal market data and the consequences of companies` and government`s actions in choosing the best approach for correct construction of to reduce HIV incidence in Russia. The paper develops the forecasting model of one of the parameters, which has a substantial role in decision-making process. The medication market data in this study represents the cumulative daily concluded contracts, used in treatment of HIV in Russia, the level of HIV incidence (yearly) and federal budget on healthcare (yearly). The proposed approach have more than 82% average accuracy at predicting the sum of medication contract prices at the 3-year time period. The received figures are effective in predicting the factors` behavior in future. It can be used for improved modulation of AHP and consequently, the overall accuracy of the model structure.
Highlights
Medication market sustainability is a permanent concern of any society as it is a crucial part of its wellbeing
These tendencies are most possibly due to the current long-term economic recession in Russian Federation caused by multiple factors (Eberhardt et al, 2015; Viktorov and Abramov, 2019) alongside with government budget policy (Stepanovich, 2018; An et al, 2019; Nyangarika et al, 2019)
We can say that current number of concluded contracts on selected set of HIV related medication does not represent the trend of HIV incidence in Russia, assuming data completeness and fairness of tender auctions
Summary
Medication market sustainability is a permanent concern of any society as it is a crucial part of its wellbeing. The changes in the development of this market is influenced by political, economic, social, technological, legal and environmental factors and can have drastic outcomes in the short and long run. The main objective of the government and society as a whole is proposedly a reduction in new HIV cases in the country, increasing market activity and accessibility of medical treatment. It is very hard to achieve all of the above by one drastic policy change. Following the theory of Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) and Analytical Hierarchy Processing (AHP) in particular, the main groups of actors in achieving this goal are: society – actor, which goal is less infected people; government – actor, which goal is increasing business activity and reducing prices; private companies (suppliers/vendors) – actors, which goal is to increase profits.
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
