Recidivism Risk Assessment Research Articles

Kogo „uleczy” Krajowy Ośrodek Zapobiegania Zachowaniom Dyssocjalnym?

Problematyka prawnej reakcji wobec sprawców przestępstw seksualnych jest obecna w dyskursie społecznym i naukowym od dłuższego czasu. Pomimo druzgocącej krytyki, jaka spadała na polskiego ustawodawcę po uchwalaniu kolejnych regulacji dotyczących zwalczania przestępstw seksualnych, prezydent podpisał ustawę o postępowaniu wobec osób z zaburzeniami psychicznymi stwarzających zagrożenie życia, zdrowia lub wolności seksualnej innych osób. Instytucje prawne przewidziane przez ten akt prawny wpisują się w rozwiązania nazywane zbiorczo Prawem o postępowaniu ze szczególnie niebezpiecznymi sprawcami przemocy seksualnej (ang. Sexually Violent Predator (SVP) Legislation). O ile sama idea takich regulacji nie jest oceniana jednoznacznie negatywnie, o tyle istotnym problemem, który może pojawić się w Polsce na gruncie realizowania zapisów tej ustawy, jest brak stosowania w polskiej praktyce penitencjarnej i sądowo-psychiatrycznej nowoczesnych narzędzi oceny ryzyka recydywy. Z tego względu musi budzić wątpliwości kwalifikowanie sprawców przestępstw jako osób stwarzających zagrożenie, szczególnie zważywszy na znaczny zakres planowanej ingerencji w prawa i wolności obywatelskie tych osób. W artykule przedstawiono podstawowe założenia regulacji SVP, jak również podstawowe informacje dotyczące oceny ryzyka recydywy wśród przestępców seksualnych. Wskazane kwestie teoretyczne zestawiono następnie z polskimi rozwiązaniami, a także z polską praktyką dokonywania oceny ryzyka recydywy.

A Commentary on Statistical Assessment of Violence Recidivism Risk

Increasing integration and availability of data on large groups of persons has been accompanied by proliferation of statistical and other algorithmic prediction tools in banking, insurance, marketing, medicine, and other fields (see e.g., Steyerberg (2009a;b)). Controversy may ensue when such tools are introduced to fields traditionally reliant on individual clinical evaluations. Such controversy has arisen about actuarial assessments of violence recidivism risk, i.e., the probability that someone found to have committed a violent act will commit another during a specified period. Recently Hart et al. (2007a) and subsequent papers from these authors in several reputable journals have claimed to demonstrate that statistical assessments of such risks are inherently too imprecise to be useful, using arguments that would seem to apply to statistical risk prediction quite broadly. This commentary examines these arguments from a technical statistical perspective, and finds them seriously mistaken in many particulars. They should play no role in reasoned discussions of violence recidivism risk assessment.

Differences between juvenile offenders with and without substance use problems in the prevalence and impact of risk and protective factors for criminal recidivism

BackgroundLittle is known about the needs of substance-using juveniles in treatment aimed at reducing criminal recidivism. Therefore, we aimed to examine treatment needs of substance-using juvenile offenders. MethodsDifferences were examined between juvenile offenders who abstain from substance use (ASU; n=1974) and substance-using juvenile offenders without (SU; n=7000) and with substance use problems (SUP; n=3317), in the prevalence of risk/protective factors for criminal recidivism and strength of associations between risk/protective factors and criminal recidivism. We conducted secondary data analysis on recidivism risk assessments, collected with the Washington State Juvenile Court Assessment, and re-offending data. Analyses of variance and Partial correlations, adjusted for age, gender and ethnicity were applied, as well as Fisher's z tests and logistic regression analyses. ResultsResults showed that substance-using offenders, especially those with substance use problems, had more risk factors and less protective factors than ASU youths in the domains of school, use of free time, relationships, family, attitude, aggression and skills. The associations between most of the risk/protective factors and recidivism were stronger in the ASU group than in the SUP group. Substance use uniquely predicted recidivism, net of risk factors. ConclusionsThese results suggest that general interventions for juvenile offenders addressing risk and protective factors with the aim to reduce recidivism may be less effective for offenders with substance use problems, and that substance use (problems) should be addressed, too.

Predictive validity of adult risk assessment tools with juveniles who offended sexually.

An often-held assumption in the area of sexual recidivism risk assessment is that different tools should be used for adults and juveniles. This assumption is driven either by the observation that adolescents tend to be in a constant state of flux in the areas of development, education, and social structure or by the fact that the judicial system recognizes that juveniles and adults are different. Though the assumption is plausible, it is largely untested. The present study addressed this issue by scoring 2 adult sexual offender risk assessment tools, the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised and the Static-99, on an exhaustive sample (N = 636) of juveniles who had sexually offended (JSOs) in Utah. For comparison, 2 tools designed for JSOs were also scored: the Juvenile-Sex Offender Assessment Protocol-II and the Juvenile Risk Assessment Scale. Recidivism data were collected for 2 time periods: before age 18 (sexual, violent, any recidivism) and from age 18 to the year 2004 (sexual). The adult actuarial risk assessment tools predicted all types of juvenile recidivism significantly and at approximately the same level of accuracy as juvenile-specific tools. However, the accuracy of longer term predictions of adult sexual recidivism across all 4 tools was substantially lower than the accuracy achieved in predicting juvenile sexual recidivism, with 2 of the tools producing nonsignificant results, documenting the greater difficulty in making longer term predictions on the basis of adolescent behavior.

An Exploration of the Latent Constructs of the STATIC-99

Although actuarial instruments are ubiquitously used in the field of sex offender recidivism risk assessment, there is limited empirical information about the underlying constructs from which they are derived. The following study utilized a nonparametric item response theory procedure, a Mokken analysis, and nonlinear factor analysis (Normal Ogive Harmonic Analysis Robust Method) to explore the underlying constructs of the STATIC-99 scores obtained for male sexual offenders (N = 451) referred for an evaluation to determine if they met criteria for civil commitment under a state's Sexually Violent Persons Law. The results from the analyses indicated that the STATIC-99 comprises the two previously identified constructs associated with sexual deviancy and antisocial behaviors as well as a third, additional construct, associated with the items pertaining to age and past marital-type relationships. These findings support Hanson and Thornton's assertion that sexual offender recidivism risk is multifactorial and not the result of a single underlying trait. Implications for future research are discussed.

To what extent does civil commitment reduce sexual recidivism? Estimating the selective incapacitation effects in Minnesota

PurposeThis study examines the selective incapacitation effects of civil commitment on sexual reoffending among 105 Minnesota sex offenders who were civilly committed between 2004 and 2006. MethodsThe Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-3, a sexual recidivism risk assessment instrument, was used to estimate what the four-year sexual recidivism rate would have been for these offenders had they been released to the community. Integration of Survival with Quality of Life (iSQoL) software was used to extrapolate the survival curves over a 50-year period to develop a lifetime sexual recidivism estimate. ResultsIf the 105 civilly committed sex offenders had been released to the community, an estimated nine percent would have been reconvicted of a new sex offense within four years. Civilly committing these offenders therefore likely reduced the overall four-year sexual recidivism rate by 12 percent. The results further suggest that if these offenders had been released to the community, an estimated 28 percent would be rearrested for another sex offense within their lifetime. ConclusionsTo better align the costs of civil commitment with its public safety benefits, states operating these programs should emphasize the use of intermediate alternatives in the community for a more positive return on investment.

Community Risk Management of High-Risk Sex Offenders in Canada: Findings From a Quasi-Experimental Study

Much has been said about risk assessment and risk prediction of sexual recidivism, but few studies have examined the risk management of high-risk sex offenders returning to the community. The current study explores the impact of an intensive supervision program in the province of British Columbia, Canada. A quasi-experimental design was implemented to determine the impact of the program on recidivism. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards analyses were conducted to determine the impact of the risk management program on recidivism. Mixed findings were observed as to the impact of the intensive supervision program. In spite of varying levels of supervision, the study showed that age, legal status, actuarial risk, and—to a lesser extent—education were all predictive of recidivism.

Prediction of adolescent sexual reoffending: A meta-analysis of the J-SOAP-II, ERASOR, J-SORRAT-II, and Static-99.

Several risk assessment tools, including the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol-II (Prentky & Righthand, 2003), the Estimate of Risk of Adolescent Sexual Offense Recidivism (Worling & Curwen, 2001), the Juvenile Sexual Offense Recidivism Risk Assessment Tool-II (Epperson, Ralston, Fowers, DeWitt, & Gore, 2006), and the Static-99 (Hanson & Thornton, 1999), have been used to assess reoffense risk among adolescents who have committed sexual offenses. Given that research on these tools has yielded somewhat mixed results, we empirically synthesized 33 published and unpublished studies involving 6,196 male adolescents who had committed a sexual offense. We conducted two separate meta-analyses, first with correlations and then with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs). Total scores on each of the tools significantly predicted sexual reoffending, with aggregated correlations ranging from .12 to .20 and aggregated AUC scores ranging from .64 to .67. However, in many cases heterogeneity across studies was moderate to high. There were no significant differences between tools, and although the Static-99 was developed for adults, it achieved similar results as the adolescent tools. Results are compared to other meta-analyses of risk tools used in the area of violence risk assessment and in other fields.

Review of Risk Assessment Instruments for Juvenile Sex Offenders

Risk assessment is considered to be a key element in the prevention of recidivism among juvenile sex offenders (JSOs), often by imposing long-term consequences based on that assessment. The authors reviewed the literature on the predictive accuracy of six well-known risk assessment instruments used to appraise risk among JSOs: the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol-II (J-SOAP-II), Juvenile Sexual Offence Recidivism Risk Assessment Tool-II (J-SORRAT-II), Estimate of Risk of Adolescent Sexual Offence Recidivism (ERASOR), Juvenile Risk Assessment Scale (JRAS), Structured Assessment of Violent Risk in Youth (SAVRY), and Hare Psychopathy Checklist:Youth Version (PCL:YV). Through a systematic search, 19 studies were reviewed. Studies showed differences in the predictive accuracies for general, violent, and sexual recidivism, and none of the instruments showed unequivocal positive results in predicting future offending. Not unexpectedly, the accuracy of the SAVRY and PCL:YV appeared to be weaker for sexual recidivism compared with specialized tools such as the J-SOAP-II or the ERASOR. Because of the rapid development of juveniles, it is questionable to impose long-term restrictions based on a risk assessment only. New challenges in improving risk assessment are discussed.

Juveniles Who Sexually Offend: Recommending a Treatment Program and Level of Care

Specialized interventions for juveniles who have committed sex offenses have been widely available for 25 years. These interventions initially were based largely on adult sex offender interventions, with little consideration of developmental and other differences that distinguish juveniles from adult offenders. More recently, interventions have been developed that address youth-specific factors associated with problem sexual behaviors and that include a stronger family focus. This article reviews the history of intervention approaches, summarizes specialized evaluation methods and addresses the assessment of juvenile recidivism risk.

Pedophilia: An Evaluation of Diagnostic and Risk Prediction Methods

One hundred thirty child sexual abusers were diagnosed using each of following four methods: (a) phallometric testing, (b) strict application of Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (4th ed., text revision [DSM-IV-TR]) criteria, (c) Rapid Risk Assessment of Sex Offender Recidivism (RRASOR) scores, and (d) "expert" diagnoses rendered by a seasoned clinician. Comparative utility and intermethod consistency of these methods are reported, along with recidivism data indicating predictive validity for risk management. Results suggest that inconsistency exists in diagnosing pedophilia, leading to diminished accuracy in risk assessment. Although the RRASOR and DSM-IV-TR methods were significantly correlated with expert ratings, RRASOR and DSM-IV-TR were unrelated to each other. Deviant arousal was not associated with any of the other methods. Only the expert ratings and RRASOR scores were predictive of sexual recidivism. Logistic regression analyses showed that expert diagnosis did not add to prediction of sexual offence recidivism over and above RRASOR alone. Findings are discussed within a context of encouragement of clinical consistency and evidence-based practice regarding treatment and risk management of those who sexually abuse children.

Assessment of risk for violent recidivism through multivariate Bayesian classification.

Assessment of risk for violent recidivism through multivariate Bayesian classification.

Der Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG)

In North America, the use of actuarial instruments is considered to be state of the art in the assessment of offender recidivism risk. One of these instruments is the "Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide" (SORAG), which was developed specifically for the use in sex offender risk assessment. The present review investigates the current state of knowledge regarding the instrument's validity specifically for its use in German-speaking countries. Overall the results speak for the instrument's good discriminatory power. However, this is not true to the same degree for all types of sex offender populations. The discriminatory power is especially good in the subpopulation of child molesters. Part of the present review is a German translation of the instrument authorised by the developers of the SORAG.

Multidimensional assessment of criminal recidivism: Problems, pitfalls, and proposed solutions.

All states have statutes in place to civilly commit individuals at high risk for violence. The authors address difficulties in assessing such risk but use as an example the task of predicting sexual violence recidivism; the principles espoused here generalize to predicting all violence. As part of the commitment process, mental health professionals, who are often psychologists, evaluate an individual's risk of sexual recidivism. It is common for professionals conducting these risk assessments to use several actuarial risk prediction instruments (i.e., psychological tests). These tests rarely demonstrate close agreement in the risk figures they provide. Serious epistemological and psychometric problems in the multivariate assessment of recidivism risk are pointed out. Sound psychometric, or in some cases heuristic, solutions to these problems are proffered, in the hope of improving clinical practice. The authors focus on how to make these tests' outputs commensurable and discuss various ways to combine them in coherent, justifiable fashions.

The first step in the validation of a new screen for violence risk in acute psychiatry: The inpatient context

BackgroundInstruments for evaluating the risk of violence towards others have mostly been developed for assessment of risk for recidivism into violent crime in forensic psychiatry. In general psychiatry there is a considerable need for specialised, brief and structured assessment tools to inform risk decisions. MethodThe study aimed to validate a brief structured clinical risk assessment screen of inpatient violence (V-RISK-10), a 10-item structured clinical checklist with a good vignette-based interrater reliability (ICC=0.87). In this study it was used for risk assessment of a one-year sample of patients (N=1.017) admitted to two acute psychiatric units. Risk assessments at admission were compared to prospective records of aggressive and violent acts during the hospital stay. ResultsResults showed a base rate for aggression of 9%. The predictive validity of the V-RISK-10 was estimated by Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC). It yielded an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.83, with sensitivity/specificity of 0.81/0.73 and corresponding positive and negative predictive values (PPV/NPV) of 0.24/0.97. The screen was easy-to-use and showed a short completion time. ConclusionDespite promising results further validation studies are required before the V-RISK-10 is adopted into routine clinical practise.

Controversies in assessing risk and deviancy in sex offenders with intellectual disabilities

While the literature on the assessment, treatment and management of non-intellectual disabled sex offenders is well established, it is only in recent years that researchers and clinicians have focused on sex offenders with intellectual disability (ID). This article focuses on two areas: the assessment of risk and recidivism, and the assessment of sexual deviancy in sex offenders with ID. The first part of this article reviews the literature on the assessment of sexual offence recidivism risk for sex offenders with ID. Static and dynamic risk factors associated with sexual recidivism risk in sex offenders with ID are identified and the use of actuarial risk assessment scales and structured risk assessment systems with this client group are considered. The second part of this article discusses difficulties associated with the assessment of sexual deviancy in sex offenders with ID. An alternative approach to assessing deviancy is considered where deviant behaviour is compared against a four-group continuum of normal to deviant sexual behaviour in terms of developmental and chronological levels. From the literature a number of suggestions are made regarding the assessment of risk and sexual deviancy with this client group.

Factors predicting recidivism of female violent juvenile probationers: Study for developing FVJP-RRAR(Female Violent Juvenile Probationers-Rapid Risk Assessment of Recidivism)

Factors predicting recidivism of female violent juvenile probationers: Study for developing FVJP-RRAR(Female Violent Juvenile Probationers-Rapid Risk Assessment of Recidivism)

Aging Versus Stable Enduring Traits as Explanatory Constructs in Sex Offender Recidivism

This study investigates whether sex offenders' age at release from custody affects their likelihood of reoffending. The participants were 468 men with a mean follow-up (time at risk) of just more than 5 years after release. Items from the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide, the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide, the Rapid Risk Assessment of Sexual Offense Recidivism, the Static-99, and the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Test—Revised were coded. Results show that the predictive ability of items tapping antisocial behavior is inflated by their association with age at release, whereas the predictive ability of items tapping sexual deviance is diminished by that association. An assessment instrument comprising an age-corrected antisocial behavior scale, an age-corrected sexual deviance scale, and an age at release scale predicted recidivism as well as the best existing actuarial instruments. Cox regression analysis shows that age at release provided unique and significant predictive ability over and above age-corrected antisocial behavior and age-corrected sexual deviance combined.

The accuracy of recidivism risk assessments for sexual offenders: A meta-analysis of 118 prediction studies.

This review compared the accuracy of various approaches to the prediction of recidivism among sexual offenders. On the basis of a meta-analysis of 536 findings drawn from 118 distinct samples (45,398 sexual offenders, 16 countries), empirically derived actuarial measures were more accurate than unstructured professional judgment for all outcomes (sexual, violent, or any recidivism). The accuracy of structured professional judgment was intermediate between the accuracy found for the actuarial measures and for unstructured professional judgment. The effect sizes for the actuarial measures were moderate to large by conventional standards (average d values of 0.67-0.97); however, the utility of the actuarial measures will vary according to the referral question and samples assessed. Further research should identify the psychologically meaningfully factors that contribute to risk for reoffending. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved).

S27-04 The role of intuition and prognostic risk assessment regarding the leave of offenders with mental disorders

The granting of leave during terms of imprisonment plays an important part in the treatment of mentally ill offenders. According to German law, leave is to be granted in those cases where the abuse of this privilege or an attempt to flee can be negated. These regulations also, however, imply that the risk assessment of a patient's offence-related recidivism can not be the only criterion for the granting of leave.So far, there have only been few studies about the prognostic risk assessment of the general abuse of leave. This is rather astonishing, as the granting of leave outside the institutional grounds, in particular, is a decision which often leaves those responsible fraught with anxiety. Furthermore, the abuse of a granted temporary release can lead to severe consequences on various levels.As part of a study to be conducted in the German state of Rhineland-Palatinate, decisions about granting leave are to be analyzed and possible predictors of the abuse of leave are to be examined.It is assumed that the abuse of leave is likely to be motivated by the conditions of particular situations and can primarily be explained by normal psychological factors.However, it should be pointed out that, as the abuse of leave is such a rare occurrence, it poses a significant methodological problem. The criterion to be examined therefore needs to be exactly defined and particular attention must be paid to achieve an adequately high interreliability of the decision makers.