Recession Research Articles

The Impact of Direct Purchase Policy on Stock Price Trend: Evidence from China in First Quarter of 2024

In recent years, with the global economic recession brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic and the turbulence in the international situation, countries have been actively rescuing financial markets. Particularly in China, the national team has invested hundreds of billions of yuan to directly purchase stocks from the stock market to save the market. Research indicates that the direct purchase of stocks indeed leads to an increase in the price of these stocks. Conversely, stocks that are sold within this plan have also clearly experienced a decline. However, it is important to note that this impact is most pronounced in the initial thirty trading days. Over time, the influence gradually diminishes, especially by the fourth thirty-trading-day period, there is a significant drop in stock prices.

The profitability implications of supplier concentration during economic recession and restoration: the moderating role of supply localization

Economic recessions and restoration change the dynamics of demand and supply in the supply chain. How to match supplier relationships with the dynamic changes to sharp profitability performance is pivotal for firms’ supply chain management during economic waves. Based on the Resource Dependence Theory, changes in demand-side and supply-side resources alter the power-balanced relationship between a firm and its concentrated supplier, affecting the implications of supplier concentration on a firm’s profitability performance in the economic recessions and restoration stages. Furthermore, we consider the moderating role of suppliers’ spatial location, exploring whether a higher proportion of intra-provincial suppliers (i.e., supply localization) helps improve the profitability implications of supplier concentration. Based on the sample of 3319 listed companies in China from 2020 to 2021, we find that: (1) in the economic recession stage, supplier concentration is positively correlated with firm profitability, and this positive relationship is amplified by a higher proportion of intra-provincial supplier transactions; (2) in the economic restoration stage, supplier concentration is negatively correlated with firm profitability, and the higher proportion of intra-provincial supplier transactions aggravates this negative relationship. The 2SLS method is applied to verify the main effects, and we used alternative variable measurements and different model settings to verify the robustness of the findings. The results provide a deeper reference for firms to consider appropriate supplier relationships in response to economic waves.

Healthcare delivery in Lebanon: a critical scoping review of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats

BackgroundLebanon, an Eastern Mediterranean country with a lower-middle income status, that once boasted a health care system that was functional despite its challenges and complexity. However, it has faced a series of crises—economic, an influx of refugees, political instability, and recent sanctions—that have significantly impacted its aim, principles and values that has impacted upon its ability to function. The objective of this study is to delve into the health service delivery within the Lebanese system and conduct a SWOT analysis (assessing strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats).MethodsWe conducted a scoping review, examining literature related to the Lebanese health system and its performance in delivering healthcare services. We followed the Arksey and O’Malley framework, which involves six key phases: identifying the research question, identifying relevant studies, study selection, charting the data, collating, summarizing, and reporting the results, consultation.ResultsDespite Lebanon grappling with multiple crises in recent years—such as the COVID-19 pandemic and economic downturn—the health system has demonstrated resilience in service delivery. However, challenges persist. Healthcare providers, including physicians and nurses, must address these issues. Additionally, economic and political crises pose threats that have necessitated significant changes in healthcare service delivery.ConclusionIn the system of healthcare in Lebanon, there have been remarkable achievements, but continuous attention by healthcare providers and the Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) is critical. Economic and political challenges exert constant pressure on service delivery and thus reveal a need for strategic changes, most importantly in health financing if Universal Health Coverage (UHC) is to be attained. Proper resources to strategic reform and system implementation in all parts of the country to ensure equitable access and quality care that is sustained are obligatory.

The local wisdom approach in resolving non-performing loans at traditional village credit institution in Bali: a case study during the COVID-19 pandemic

This study explores the role of local wisdom in managing non-performing loans (NPLs) within Village Credit Institutions (VCDs) in Bali during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a case study approach, the research examines the effectiveness of traditional mechanisms such as awig-awig (customary law) and pararem (community agreements) in maintaining social cohesion and addressing financial challenges. Through qualitative methods, including in-depth interviews with key stakeholders and document analysis, the study seeks to understand how these customary practices contribute to resolving NPLs. The findings indicate that local wisdom fosters community engagement and dialogue, offering temporary solutions to financial problems during crises. These traditional mechanisms promote a sense of collective responsibility and help maintain social harmony by facilitating discussions between debtors and VCDs. However, the research also highlights several limitations. While effective in the short term, local wisdom struggles to enforce sanctions and provide long-term resolutions, especially during severe economic downturns like the pandemic. This issue is compounded by external factors such as Bali’s heavy reliance on tourism, which makes the local economy highly vulnerable to global disruptions. The lack of digital infrastructure and the absence of integrated government support further intensify the challenges faced by VCDs in managing NPLs. The study concludes that while local wisdom remains a valuable tool for crisis management, its effectiveness is constrained in times of prolonged financial instability. For VCDs to achieve long-term sustainability and resilience in future crises, it is essential to integrate traditional practices with modern financial systems. Additionally, stronger government support, including digital infrastructure development and comprehensive financial regulations, is crucial to ensure the sustainability of VCDs. This combination of traditional and modern strategies can help VCDs navigate future economic challenges more effectively and safeguard their role in the local economy.

The mitigating effect of social protection on undernourishment during economic downturns: A longitudinal study of 46 low- and middle-income countries over the last two decades

BackgroundLow- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of economic downturns on the Prevalence of Undernourishment (PoU). Our study aimed to evaluate the impact of Social Protection and Labor Programs (SPL) on PoU in 46 LMICs from 2001 to 2019, and to estimate SPL mitigating effects during economic downturns. MethodsThis cohort study used a multi-country ecological design with two-ways fixed effects multivariable linear regression models, adjusted for relevant demographic, socioeconomic, and contextual variables. Interaction terms between economic downturns and SPL were used to evaluate SPL mitigating effects. FindingsOur study cohort displayed an average 15.30% PoU and 34.34% SPL coverage in the initial year, contrasting with 8.58% PoU and 43.81% SPL coverage in the final year. A 10% SPL coverage was associated with a 0.51% PoU reduction (95%CI: 0.04–0.99) across all countries and 0.78% reduction within the poorest subgroup. SPL have been able to prevent an estimated 1.01 billion (95% UI: 0.16–1.86) cases of undernourishment over the study period in the 46 LMICs. Economic downturns were associated with a 4.55% PoU increase (95% CI: 1.28–7.81) in all countries, and a 6.06% PoU increase in the poorest subgroup. High SPL coverage during the downturns had significant mitigating effects, reducing an overall 1.17% PoU for every 10% SPL coverage in all countries, and 1.81% PoU in the poorest nations. InterpretationAmid the ongoing multiple global crises, expanding the coverage of social protection could effectively mitigate the potential increases in undernourishment during economic downturns, contributing to the achievement of nutrition-related Sustainable Development Goals in LMICs.

Self-care practices among professional nurses employed in primary health care clinics

Background: Professional nurses typically promote and advocate self-care practices to their patients to achieve better health outcomes, but rarely engage in these practices themselves.Methods: A qualitative, descriptive phenomenological approach was used in this study. Ten professional nurses employed in different primary health care facilities were purposively sampled. Semi-structured interviews were conducted to collect data, which were analysed using Colaizzi’s data analysis strategy, and data saturation was reached.Results: Two themes were identified. Theme 1: the participants expressed that internal and external factors compromised self-care practices, such as subconscious self-neglect, insufficient resources, and a depressed economy, which encouraged them to work extended hours. Theme 2: participants’ holistic well-being was compromised, as they neglected their mental well-being.Conclusion: Self-care practices among professional nurses seem unachievable. The extent of this population’s self-care neglect was evident during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic when professional nurses globally gave of themselves relentlessly.Contribution: This is the first study conducted on the topic in the City of Ekurhuleni, and the findings will provide relevant stakeholders with a directive on what strategies, policies, and guidelines to develop and implement to make self-care practices attainable for professional nurses.

Violent Victimization in Emerging Adulthood and Its Longitudinal Impacts on Well-Being: A Study of Ever-Homeless Persons.

Persons who have experienced homelessness have higher lifetime risks of violent victimization relative to the general population. However, the long-term impacts of violent victimization on various facets of well-being are poorly understood among ever-homeless persons, particularly when violence is experienced in early adulthood. Here, using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health, we focus on a subsample of emerging adults who reported ever suffering homelessness (N = 481). Drawing primarily from Waves III and IV of the data, a series of regression models are specified to determine whether violent victimization in emerging adulthood is related to a range of negative outcomes later in life among ever-homeless persons (economic hardship, binge drinking, drug use, depression, offending, and victimization). Results indicate that victimization in emerging adulthood increases the risks for subsequent victimization for ever-homeless persons, but that it has no robust associations with any other outcomes examined. We explain these findings through processes of disadvantage saturation, in which the consequences of victimization may be more subdued among individuals who experience an array of hardships and disadvantages in their lives. The implications of these findings for policy are future research are discussed, and we emphasize the need for a context-contingent approach to the study of victimization and its life course consequences.

Understanding Nonprofit Financial Health: Exploring the Effects of Economic Recession and Environmental Factors (2007–2012)

During an economic recession, the gaps between community service demands and available resources for nonprofits widen. Nonprofits with financial vulnerability cut back on their services or activities when facing a turbulent economic downturn. To make sense of such situations, drawn from organizational ecology theory, we examine the relationships between environmental factors and a nonprofit’s financial health and the moderating role of the Great Recession of 2008 on their relationship. Employing IRS 990 and US census data (2007–2012) on counties, our longitudinal analysis finds that: 1) nonprofits’ county-level environmental factors, i.e., service demand and available resources, are associated with their financial health; 2) the impact of economic recession on nonprofits’ financial health is particularly severe in communities with greater racial diversity; and 3) nonprofits located in communities with more resources are more likely to be financially healthy and are less affected by the economic recession in the long term.

National Conflicts in North Caucasus: Origins and Resolution

This article examines the causes and consequences of national conflicts in the North Caucasus. It addresses issues related to the sources of ethnic conflicts in contemporary times. The significance of the North Caucasus as a bridge connecting north to south and west to east is emphasized, highlighting its immense importance for the Russian Federation. From a geostrategic perspective, this region serves as a gateway to Central Asia while also providing access to Western markets. The paper pays particular attention to events that have transpired since the late 1980s in the Caucasus, where some of the most acute ethnopolitical conflicts and wars have occurred. Six out of eight armed ethnopolitical civil conflicts in the post-Soviet space unfolded in this region. The article raises the issue that, as a result of these events, the Caucasian region has become a battleground for separatist organizations within the post-Soviet context. Armed conflicts have led to numerous human casualties, material losses, economic downturns, and other tragedies. Based on the materials studied, it is concluded that ethnic conflicts are diverse in their manifestations. The conditions for the politicization of ethnic conflicts in the North Caucasus are also explored.

On-demand removable hydrogel film derived from gallic acid-phycocyanin and polyvinyl alcohol for fruit preservation

Postharvest spoilage of fruits accounts for significant losses ranging between 20 %–30 %, leading to considerable resource wastage and economic downturns. The development of an effective fresh-keeping packaging material is of paramount importance. This study introduces an innovative on-demand removable active fruit fresh-keeping film (GPP), created by embedding a GP (gallic acid-phycocyanin) fiber mesh hydrogel with functional properties into a polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) matrix. The resultant GPP hydrogel-based film demonstrates outstanding UV and water vapor barrier capabilities, mechanical stability, resistance to external mechanical stress, universal surface adhesion, antibacterial efficacy, and on-demand removal attributes, while being devoid of potential toxicity hazards. Utilizing grapes and blueberries as representative fruits, it is shown that the GPP hydrogel film significantly preserves the fruits' hardness, pH, total soluble solids content (TSS), and minimizes the rate of weight loss, thereby prolonging the shelf life to 13 days for grapes and 20 days for blueberries at ambient temperature. These results underscore the potential of this hydrogel-based film as an invaluable material for fruit preservation within the food industry.

Artificial Intelligence in Socioeconomic Research: Identifying Key Drivers of Unemployment Inequality in the U.S

Unemployment inequality remains one of the most vexing socioeconomic quagmires confronting the United States. This research project aimed to pinpoint how AI can be applied in the enumeration of key drivers of unemployment inequality in the United States and set a framework for further research and policy development. In this study, the researcher has drawn a massive volume dataset from the Economic Policy Institute's State of Working America Data Library, along with research performed by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The unemployment incidents data was classified in terms of age, education level, gender, race, and other demographic factors. Subsequently, the analyst employed Linear Regression from the Scikit-learn library. Overall performance evaluation showcased that linear regression performed excellently with the least error in MSE and RMSE and, hence, was the best in terms of accurately predicting unemployment indicators. Accurate prediction of the unemployment rate using the proposed linear regression model can help the U.S. government proactively warn against economic downturns by deploying the. Besides, by executing the Linear Regression, government officials can influence favorable policies through tax incentives or labor laws. Evidently, the linear regression framework is a powerful AI tool that can help bring huge enhancements to unemployment inequality research and policy development in the future. This model not only provides a quantification of the relationships but allows for the making of predictions, thus making it useful for evaluating the possible results of different policy scenarios. Furthermore, the Linear Regression framework can also be used in the assessment of the effectiveness of pre-existing policies aimed at reducing unemployment.

The role of diversification in stabilizing bank credit over the business cycle

AbstractWe investigate whether diversification stabilizes bank lending cyclicality on a sample of 25 conventional and 18 Islamic banks from Malaysia spanning 2008 to 2021. Our findings reveal that both bank types are nonlinearly procyclical during economic expansions, with Islamic banks also exhibiting countercyclical behavior during economic contractions. Diversification is positively associated with credit growth in conventional banks and Islamic bank subsidiaries, and it amplifies procyclicality across all Islamic bank types. Conversely, loan concentration stabilizes credit in Islamic banks. These results are robust to an alternative credit measure. Further analyses indicate that public and foreign banks are procyclical during booms and countercyclical during busts. At the same time, diversification heightens procyclicality in private, local, and foreign banks, whereas concentration mitigates it in public and local banks.

Financial Performance among Selected Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) Retail Stores in Talisay City, Cebu

The Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) sector plays a noteworthy part in the local economy, supplying essential energy resources for residential and commercial use. The COVID-19 pandemic has brought massive distractions that significantly affect the financial performance of companies, regardless of the sector they belong to, and this sector is not exempted. This study examined the financial performance of these LPG retail stores in Talisay City, Cebu, to know if they recovered financially, particularly in recent economic downturns and market forces. After examining the financial data for the years 2022 and 2023 using the identified financial ratios, the authors found that all participating LPG retail stores showed a positive financial performance in terms of their net profit margin, current ratio, debt-to-equity, asset turnover, and cash flow to debt ratios. This implies that LPG retail stores operate efficiently, maintain robust profitability, manage financial obligations correctly, and ensure sufficient liquidity. Additionally, it can give owners a positive perspective on the growth and stability in Talisay City, Cebu.

Theoretical model for predicting survival of quantity surveying firms in Nigeria

Firms are susceptible to environmental changes like national economic instability, which affects their survival. Consequently, firms need to ascertain their tendency to survive the challenges of the environment. Therefore, this study investigated the factors influencing the failure of quantity surveying consultancy firms and proposes a survival tendency model that allows decision-makers to assess their propensity to withstand economic downturns. Through observational research, QS firms were studied for 10 years (2010 to 2020) which typifies the economic contraction phase in Nigeria. Archival and qualitative data were obtained from 130 QS firms and Cox regression was adopted to analyse the data. The results revealed that 43% of QS firms failed during the economic downturn due to external loans obtained for their operations. Furthermore, purchasing new software/technologies and employing more staff increases the probability of failure while research and development, diversification, and maintaining the number of partners reduce likelihood of failure. A model was proposed for QS firms to ascertain their survival during economic downturns using the significant predictor (i.e. method of financing). This study, thus, recommends that managers of QS firms should finance their operations using savings from professional fees and profits. They should also decide on strategies that can be implemented to survive economic crises.

DEVELOPMENT OF THE GLOBAL AIR TRANSPORTATION MARKET IN CONDITIONS OF TURBULENCE

The purpose of the article is to develop and substantiate the strategic priorities of international cooperation of air transport enterprises of Ukraine in war and post-war times based on the study of turbulence factors affecting the activity of the global air transport market, as well as the analysis of the strategic development of the world's largest airlines in crisis conditions. The methodological basis of the research is scientific theories of economic cycles and crises, theories of market equilibrium, theories of market structures, theories of cooperation and integration. Both general scientific and special methods of scientific knowledge were used – historical-logical, descriptive-analytical, analysis and synthesis, methods of quantitative and qualitative comparisons. The informational basis of the article is monographic studies and periodical publications of Ukrainian and foreign economists, analytical reports of international aviation organizations, international consulting companies and analytical centres. The article examines the essence, structure and modern trends in the development of the global air transport market. Turbulence factors affecting the dynamics of air transport are identified and justified, including geopolitical instability, economic downturns, rising fuel prices, pandemics, technological innovations etc. The impact of crises on international air transportation was assessed, and the peculiarities of the regulation of the world air market were considered. The role of global strategic alliances in the formation of the world market of air transportation is determined, it is established that international cooperation of air transport enterprises allows to increase the market share. The results of the research made it possible to justify the strategic priorities of international cooperation of air transport enterprises of Ukraine in war and post-war times. Research results can be used for scientific justification and further creation of proper conditions for the effective functioning of the global air transport market, as well as in the development of new strategies for air transport enterprises of Ukraine, which will allow them to remain stable and competitive in conditions of uncertainty and growing threats.

ENSURING ECONOMIC SECURITY: COMPARISON OF EU MEMBER STATES AND UKRAINE

The purpose of this paper is to conduct a comprehensive study of economic security in the EU Member States and Ukraine, to identify differences and to propose targeted policy interventions based on these differences. Methodology. The study uses a quantitative strategy that assigns numerical ratings to countries based on their performance against predefined thresholds for various economic security indicators. These indicators include industrial security, demographic security, energy security, foreign trade security, investment and innovation security, macroeconomic security, food security, social security and financial security. The study uses data from a variety of sources and applies a ranking system to reflect the level of economic security in each category. Results. The analysis revealed significant differences in the levels of economic security between EU Member States and Ukraine. The main findings include differences in agricultural efficiency, healthcare system efficiency, renewable energy consumption, trade balance, research and development expenditure, and socio-economic factors. For example, countries such as Belgium and Ireland have high yields, while Cyprus and Romania have much lower yields. Life expectancy and the quality of healthcare also vary: Spain and Sweden lead the way, while Bulgaria and Ukraine lag behind. Practical implications. The findings suggest the need for targeted policies and technological advances to improve economic security. For the younger generation, marketing strategies based on brand equity and exclusivity can continue even during economic downturns. For the older generation, strategies that focus on value for money or lower prices may be more effective. Understanding these metrics can help businesses align their strategies with national economic priorities and identify potential areas for investment and growth. Value / Оriginality. This study contributes to the existing literature by providing a detailed comparative analysis of economic security in the EU Member States and Ukraine, filling a gap in the understanding of the multifaceted aspects of economic security in these regions.

Economic Aspects of Operating Condo Hotels: Qualitative Research in Poland

The aim of the article is to identify the key economic aspects of the operation of condo hotels. The paper considers the Polish condo hotel market. The research hypothesis is as follows: condo hotels are a noteworthy and at the same time risky form of investing spare funds. Three main research methods used in the work are the following: criticism of literature, analysis of existing data and direct interview technique with managers of selected condo hotels in Poland. The results of the study indicate that, in the long term, this type of investment involves a growing and difficult to fully assess uncertainty. This is due to the fact that the hotel market is particularly sensitive to unfavourable changes in the economic environment, economic downturn or unexpected fortuitous or pandemic events. The passage of years and the gradual decapitalization of facilities are also among the factors that increase this uncertainty. The motivation to write the article resulted from the author’s long-term personal scientific interests related to the hotel industry and the revealed cognitive gap in the latest research on the economic aspects of housing, as well as, especially during the war in Ukraine.

ISLAND TOURISM AND COVID-19: BUTLERS TOURISM AREA LIFE CYCLE, CULTURE, AND SWOT ANALYSIS

The purpose of this current research is to study island tourism during the COVID-19 pandemic. A unique island in the North Atlantic Ocean, in the Arctic region, was chosen to analyse island tourism. It is a European country, Iceland, located near the North Pole, at the "top of the world". In contrast to the well-known concept of sand island tourism, Iceland can be said to offer snow island tourism. In this remote area, the economic slowdown became noticeable somewhat later than in other regions of the world due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The methodology chosen to be presented in this study involves the use of a SWOT analysis to help clarify business strategy, applied to shed light on the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats to a small open economy in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on island tourism, with a tourist destination located in the middle of the North Atlantic Ocean, almost equidistant from the US and Europe. The tourism industry in Iceland has grown substantially in recent years and has become the most important sector of the Icelandic economy in recent years, generating significant foreign exchange earnings for the country. In this analysis, tourism exports are presented as a share of GDP in line with international economic theories. Additionally, the country case study is considered in conjunction with the Butlers Tourism Area life cycle and culture in the analysis. The results of the SWOT analysis indicate that, when considering the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats faced by the market, the overall growth potential of the market is significant. Practical implications include the need to strengthen the infrastructure further to best supply tourism opportunities. New opportunities are seen in online advertising, social media, digital marketing, food culture and historical culture, as well as sustainable and renewable resources. In addition, more attractions and pedestrian areas, as well as improved ski resorts. The value / originality of this study is somewhat unique, as it analyses island tourism, showing the successful development of tourism after the COVID-19 pandemic on remote islands in the North Atlantic Ocean. Ultimately, the summary and conclusions provide an overview and suggestions to consider when looking for ways to successfully promote tourism in the post-COVID crisis market.

Measuring financial stability in the presence of energy shocks

The Russia–Ukraine conflict highlighted how important energy is for the surveillance of economies worldwide. Both war and economic sanctions inevitably affected energy-related commodity prices. Although shocks in energy commodities are known to have an effect on financial stability, this information is not included in existing financial stability indicators. In this paper, we first provide empirical evidence on the existing relationship between energy-related commodities and financial stability in the EU, UK and US, as well as their importance in the forecast of economic downturns. Based on this evidence, we propose a new composite indicator of financial stability which incorporates relevant information from the energy markets. The suitability of the new composite indicator is assessed by its ability to track financial, economic, and energy crises.

Business and financial cycle across regimes: Does financial stress matter?

Identifying the business and financial cycles and their regimes is crucial for understanding the economy's state and financial market dynamics. Using a bivariate four-regime Markov-switching framework, we assess the accuracy of a model that identifies the business cycle by combining financial and real variables and compare it to a model that only uses real variables. We find that a model that incorporates information from a financial stress index outperforms a model based solely on real variables, not only during a financial crisis, but also, and more interestingly, during economic downturns. The empirical evidence provides insights for policymakers and investors to improve economic policy formulation, investment strategies, strategic decision-making, and proactive risk management. The results are robust to various model specifications.