Times Of Recession Research Articles

A comparative evaluation of automated recession extraction methods to determine the late-time recession characteristics of karst spring hydrographs

Recession Curve Analysis is a common method to characterize karstic aquifers and their discharge dynamics. Although this technique provides crucial information on quantifying system hydrodynamic properties, the manually selected recession curves analysis is neither a practical technique to cover all candidate recession curves, nor it allows extracting the entire hydrological diversity of the recession behavior. This study aimed to comparatively evaluate the applicability of automated recession selection procedures to the late-time recession analysis of karst spring hydrograph. For the comparative evaluation of the three automated recession extraction methods (Vogel Method, Brutsaert Method, and Aksoy and Wittenberg Method), we quantified the late-time recession parameters of spring hydrographs by combining three extraction methods with four recession analysis methods (Maillet, 1905; Boussinesq, 1904; Coutagne, 1948; and Wittenberg, 1999). By applying our experimental design into the five karst springs located in Austria, we identified the possible weaknesses of the automated recession extraction procedures for the late-time recession analysis for spring hydrographs. To explore the value of the karst spring’s physicochemical data (electrical conductivity and water temperature) as a completion data for the recession curve analysis, we carried out the hydro-chemograph analysis to examine the recession time and its duration. The research provides a research direction as to how the automated recession extraction procedures for the karst spring hydrographs could be improved by the physicochemical signatures of karst springs.

태권도 품새경기의 발전방향을 위한 태권도 전문가 인식연구

The purpose of this study was to understand how Taekwondo experts recognize for the future of Taekwondo Poomsae competition, new Poomsae as well as development strategy. The research participants were selected and interviewed among highly educated and experienced Taekwondo Poomsae experts. The study concluded as follows based on those research problems.<BR> First, The competition system showed astonishing growth in a short period of time even though there are some barriers such as unfamiliar rules and vague judgement.<BR> Second, In terms of Poomsae competition classification, authorized Poomsae perceived as the most important fundamental construct among Poomsae competition.<BR> Third, To improve Poomsae competition, it is recommended that extension of performing and recession time for better expression of authorized Poomsae.<BR> Fourth, A desirable direction for future Taekwondo Poomsae should be accompanied by new development of competition, enhancing leader’s qualification and strategical support including budget by government entity.

IMPROVING IRRIGATION PERFORMANCE OF RAISED BED WHEAT USING THE WinSRFR MODEL UNDER EGYPTIAN CONDITIONS

Abstract: Field experiments were carried out at the Sakha Agricultural Research Station in the governorate of Kafr el Sheikh, Egypt to evaluate and optimize the irrigation performance of raised beds wheat using the WinSRFR model during 2019/2020. Raised beds (RB130 cm, and RB100 cm) were prepared using Raised bed planter. The model calibration was based on a close match between the observed and simulated curves of advance and recession time. Simulation Analysis World was used to evaluate the current irrigation performance of the raised bed furrows (RB) and the flat basin (FB) methods. The simulation analysis shows that for RB130 cm, RB100 cm, and FB irrigation systems, the application efficiencies were 80, 64, 43%, and distribution uniformities were 86, 88, 90%, and deep percolation losses were 20, 36, 56%, and adequacy were 1.07, 1.37, 2.08%, respectively. Physical Design World was used to optimize and develop different design strategies. The results showed that irrigation performance decreased with the increasing length of furrow and basin, so extremely long lengths should be avoided because they result in decreased efficiency and uniformity, as well as big deep percolation loss. Managing the inflow rate and irrigation cut-off through Operation Analysis World can increase application efficiency and reduce deep percolation losses by more than 15%, 60%, and 17%, 33%, and 23%, 17.5% respectively, for RB130 cm, RB100 cm, and FB.

Importance of human capital, field knowledge and experience to improve pest locust management.

A poorly organised risk management system may dysfunction when used. The consequences can be dramatic for those supposed to be protected. Since the 1960s, preventive control strategies, with field officers as living memory, have been developed to monitor locusts. Preserving their experience of past plagues is consequently essential. Wrong use of their knowledge can disrupt the whole management chain. We explored these conditions using a multi-agent model representing a preventive system. We simulated how the field teams' tendency to repeatedly visit past outbreak areas (hotspots) by allocating them an attraction weight can help in preventing plagues. When field teams' attention remained constant over time, there was dramatic decrease in the number of plagues, with increasing interest in hotspots, as long as interest was less than 2.5 times more than elsewhere. When the field teams were only attentive during recession times, plagues were better controlled using a low weight for hotspots. The spatial structure of hotspot distribution had an effect: the more frequent and the bigger the hotspots, the lower the optimal hotspot weighting needed to reduce plagues. Orienting surveys towards hotspots particularly during recession times reduces plagues. The spatial structure of locust habitats may influence the way they are managed. Habitats located outside the multiple hotspots of species such as the desert locust should be visited more frequently than those with only one hotspot, such as the South American locust. The decline/loss of the field officers' experience highlights the need to save, capitalise and disseminate this knowledge. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry.

Effects of Brief Physical Activity and Mindfulness on Elementary Students’ Attention

Abstract Date Presented Accepted for AOTA INSPIRE 2021 but unable to be presented due to online event limitations. Sustaining attention in today’s elementary classrooms is increasingly challenging for elementary-age students. Long sedentary instruction, a demanding curriculum, and reduction in recess time can negatively impact children’s attention. OT practitioners can combat these issues by providing brief and effective student-centered classroom breaks focusing on physical exercise and mindfulness. Primary Author and Speaker: Jessica Swanson

Inequities in hospitalisation in a South European country: Lessons learned from the last European recession.

In Spain, regional health systems (universal access) depend on each Autonomous Communities (ACs). The management of the 2008 economic crisis has been different in the ACs, which may have led to an increase in inequities in the use of health services. The objective of this study was to analyse the impact of individual and regional characteristics on public hospitalisation inequities in Spain for the period 2003-2017. We developed a repeated cross-sectional study through Spanish National Health Surveys (2003, 2006, 2011 and 2017) and the Spanish European Health Survey (2014; n=118,499 subjects). Multilevel and Oaxaca decomposition analyses were conducted to analyse the effect of individual and regional factors in hospitalisation inequities. The results showed that the prevalence of hospitalisation was higher for women (2003: 11.2%; 2017: 9.0%) than for men (2003: 10.7%; 2017: 8.8%) and it decreased with time. Multilevel analyses showed that, after adjustment for variables related to healthcare demand, there were inequities in the probability of hospitalisation, mainly in women. The decomposition analyses showed a higher effect of the number of hospital beds available on hospitalisation in men than in women. There is a direct relationship between the number of hospital beds and the probability of hospitalisation in both sexes. In conclusion, a progressive decrease in hospitalisation use was observed in Spain in the context of the economic recession. Individual-level and regional-level factors were associated with hospitalisation inequities. It is necessary to guarantee equitable access to health services according to the need even in recession times.

Small island watershed morphometric and hydrological characteristics in Ambon Region, Maluku Province

With a relatively limited catchment area, the small island has special hydrological conditions. The hydro-morphometric approach of a watershed is essential for tracking and analyzing seasonal changes in small island watersheds’ hydrological characteristics. It is crucial to incorporate the hydrological elements of small islands, both geographically, ecologically, socio-culturally, and economically. Therefore, this study seeks to examine the morphometric and hydrological characteristics of small island watersheds in the Ambon Region, Maluku province. A geographic information system and the BFI + 3.0 digital recursive filtering method (RDF) are used in the research method. The findings showed that drainage density, bifurcation ratio, and bifurcation ratio significantly impacted water systems for watersheds, flood vulnerability, and river beds storage. Good drainage (Dd greater than 1–5) is included in drainage density. With very high flood levels and short recession periods, a riverbank ratio of less than 1 suggests rare watershed circumstances. This condition appears to have an increased vulnerability to flooding, marked by high runoff but low penetration and permeability. The bifurcation ratio shows that showing high peak discharge (Qp) and increasing times and rapid recession times, the watershed form appears to be rounded.

State-Varying Factor Models of Large Dimensions

This article develops an inferential theory for state-varying factor models of large dimensions. Unlike constant factor models, loadings are general functions of some recurrent state process. We develop an estimator for the latent factors and state-varying loadings under a large cross-section and time dimension. Our estimator combines nonparametric methods with principal component analysis. We derive the rate of convergence and limiting normal distribution for the factors, loadings, and common components. In addition, we develop a statistical test for a change in the factor structure in different states. We apply the estimator to the U.S. Treasury yields and S&P500 stock returns. The systematic factor structure in treasury yields differs in times of booms and recessions as well as in periods of high market volatility. State-varying factors based on the VIX capture significantly more variation and pricing information in individual stocks than constant factor models.

The sharing economy: a hedge against recession setbacks

PurposeThis paper aims to provide lessons from the emergence of the sharing economy after the 2008 recession and helps managers prepare more effectively for recessions in the future.Design/methodology/approachIn this conceptual paper, the authors build on research on the sharing economy and study the best practices contributing to the sharing economy’s emergence and growth after the 2008 recession. The authors identify the key characteristics of this new economic sector and share lessons that can be used by other companies.FindingsThe authors recommend five major takeaways: seeking a more flexible supply; actively watching the trends; leveraging customers like employees; using advanced data science and technology like the sharing economy companies; and proactively avoiding panicked responses. This will help companies succeed during recessionary times – and the boom times that follow.Originality/valueThis is the first paper that, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, investigates the interplay between the sharing economy and recession and highlights practical lessons.

Hotel Room Rate Discounting During Recessionary Times: Effects by Hotel Class

Previous research regarding the costs and benefits of hotel room rate discounting during recessionary times has produced mixed results and recommendations. However, it has become clear that virtually all hotels offer discounted room rates during economic recessions, regardless of the conclusions of research studies, and that includes the recession that began in 2020. Media reports have indicated that certain rogue hotels are quick to offer discounted room rates during the early months of recessions, and therefore, operators of other hotels in their competitive set feel compelled to follow the lead, perhaps regretfully. This study found that while virtually all hotels offered discounted room rates during the recession of 2008 and 2009, there was variability in discounting during the early months of the recession. As a result, we sought to explore recessionary variability of room rate discounting, and to provide an empirical, nuanced perspective regarding the effectiveness of such discounting. Notably, we found the effectiveness of recessionary discounting varied depending on the class of hotel, with higher class establishments experiencing different outcomes from discounting than hotels categorized as relatively lower class properties.

The Tragedy of Transition: Development, Deterioration, Decay. The Case of Hungary, 1990-2020

The essay is about the economic and political development of Hungary in the last 30 years. It can be neatly divided into three periods which coincide with the calendar decades almost perfectly. After the collapse of the communist system, the first period constituted a glorious decade in development: the first two governments implemented almost all indispensable structural reforms required for a successful transition. After the financial stabilization in 1995, a consistent macroeconomic policy was applied, leading to export and investment-driven, hence sustainable economic growth. The next decade brought deterioration: reforms were stalled, and a sharp turn to consumption-led and debt-fuelled growth resulted in twin deficits which, by the time of the Great Recession, almost triggered a sovereign debt default. After a short period of successful financial stabilization, a populist-nationalist government came to power in 2010. A decade of decay set in: reversal of structural reforms, nationalization, monopolization, protectionism, market-distorting taxation and subsidization, state capture by a corrupt oligarchy, together with inconsistent macroeconomic policy. In addition, the self-styled &#8222;illiberal regime&#8221; of Viktor OrbĂĄn demolished the rule of law and all institutions representing checks and balances in a democracy. Corruption was elevated to the level of official government policy. With the help of the huge amount of subsidies coming from the EU, the regime maintained financial equilibrium and achieved significant growth during the time of global boom between 2014-2019. However, given the fact that private investments and productivity stay rather low in the non-tradable sector of the domestic economy, real convergence to Western efficiency and living standards remain elusive. Today Hungary constitutes a primary example of an economy pushed into a typical middle-income trap by its oligarchic and authoritarian regime. It also proves that transition reforms are all reversible; institutions are fragile. Restoration of the rule of law and democracy seems to be an indispensable prerequisite for convergence and development.

Financial Spillover in Emerging Asia: A Tale of Three Crises

AbstractBy measuring time-varying financial spillovers of five asset classes, we analyze the propagation of shocks originating in the United States and Japan into countries of emerging Asia (EA). We compare the scale and nature of spillovers during the 2008–09 global financial crisis (GFC), the 2013 “taper tantrum” (TT), and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic (C-19). Based on the direct and indirect spillovers, the intensity of the spillover effect was largest during C-19 due to its global and multidimensional nature, and the United States was a net transmitter of spillovers particularly in bonds and equity markets. TT was an important episode for EA as it marked the beginning of the region's financial volatility and increased spillovers especially in bonds market. The impulse responses reveal that most spillovers were transmitted rapidly, in a matter of days. In times of recession whereby financial stability is in danger of being affected by spillovers, a concrete financial cooperation remains absent in EA although formal institutions designed to deal with the contagion have been put in place.

From a Recession to the COVID-19 Pandemic: Inflation–Unemployment Comparison between the UK and India

The recession in India and the UK peaked in 2017 due to the implications of new policy initiatives. The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic at the beginning of 2020 intensified the crisis, causing a drastic decline in aggregate demand and output. India and the UK have resorted to monetary and fiscal stimulus packages to face the economic crisis. This study investigated the inflation–unemployment dynamics during the recession and COVID-19 times in India and the UK. Using a generalized additive model (GAM), the results of this study revealed that the recession had given way to stagflation in India. In contrast, in the UK, it has led to a more severe recession in the short-run. During the downturn, policy initiatives aggravate the recession and eventually turn to stagflation in India due to inflation caused by the weak supply side. However, in the UK, the policy initiatives during this downturn pushed the economy into a deeper recession due to reduced demand. The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has had a similar recessionary impact on both economies. A time horizon based recovery plan is suggested to help the economies recover from stagflation and even deeper recession. This framework could enable policymakers to choose the right path of recovery within the shortest possible time.

Psybersecurity: A New Emerging Topic and Research Area Within Human Security, Part 2

During these current COVID-19 times of tension, stress, lockdown-driven isolation, social distancing, and economic recession, opportunities to exploit others have risen dramatically for hackers. Cybersecurity attacks are being orchestrated around individual weaknesses related to face masks, preventative care, stimulus checks, and unemployment issues [1]. Hackers' awareness of human vulnerabilities has become more apparent over the COVID outbreak through the latest cybersecurity attacks, including social engineering cases such as phishing, vishing, internet fraud, and online scams. Due to the ongoing pandemic, health has been placed at the forefront of media, and individually prompt-ed healthcare research has risen dramatically [2]. Now more than ever, people are turning to the Internet for critical healthcare information, including information about COVID and other diseases, as well as information on healthcare providers and medical professionals that influence one's healthcarerelated decision making. The independent online search for healthcare without professional intervention may result in users finding misinformation online, for example, incorrect, fabricated, or fraudulent healthcare information.

Alternative Income Sources – Entrepreneurship Development or Households’ Economic Needs after the COVID-19 Crisis?

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to identify and analyze the COVID-19 pandemic implications for alternative income sources in transition economy with the dispute based on literature and research. Design/Methodology/Approach: The following research methods were used. Desk extensive research and analysis of raw data collected for the study. An original in-depth interview form was developed, and scientific dispute based on subject literature was conducted. A research hypothesis, aimed at verifying the research problem, were formulated. Findings: The study highlights that, aside from passion, the main reason for undertaking additional economic activity is to obtain additional income. Practical Implications: The research expands the knowledge on COVID-19 economic implication such as finding of additional income in transition economies. An the obvious objective of each economic activity is income maximization, this is why the paper can be used as a compendium for potential additional income increasing implementation in practice. Originality/Value: The paper may start the discussion on alternative income sources which, especially in the current time of recession of domestic and global economies, will constitute an increasing percentage of households’ income. This will be the growing need of many households. The paper may be the basis for research extension, especially in a comparative basis.

Food packaging during the COVID-19 pandemic: Consumer perceptions.

While plastics play an important role in the safety, shelf‐life, and affordability of many foods, their mismanagement as waste presents a serious environmental problem. In 2019, governments in Canada and globally were poised to take legislative action to curb the use of single‐use plastics, with strong public support. However, the COVID‐19 pandemic has since disrupted those initiatives as well as the public sentiment underlying them. The aim of our study is to measure changes in Canadian consumers’ attitudes toward single‐use plastic food packaging, from Summer 2019 to Summer 2020. The methodology relies on two, representative surveys of the Canadian population, carried out in May 2019 (n = 1,094) and in June 2020 (n = 977). Our measures explored potential impacts on consumer perceptions, driven both by new food safety concerns during the pandemic and also by increased price consciousness during a time of economic recession. We found that 55% of respondents were more concerned about food safety since COVID‐19, and that 50% of respondents had become more price conscious when buying groceries. However, we found only a slight decline in motivation to reduce plastics – though with a sharper reduction among males. A stronger shift was seen in attitudes towards policy, where our results show a clear decline in support for tighter regulations or bans on single‐use plastics, along with an increase in consumers’ willingness to pay for biodegradable alternatives. These findings suggest a more difficult road ahead for legislative approaches, but also potential opportunities for market‐based strategies and innovations in the food sector.

Risk and Performance of European Green and Conventional Funds

This paper analyzes how the risk-adjusted returns of green funds compare to those of conventional funds, between the years 2005 and 2020 for the European Union countries. Additionally, we tested how the performance of green funds correlates to the business cycle, subdividing their performance through expansionary and recessionary times. The findings are summarized as follows: our regression results demonstrated green and conventional funds exhibiting negative abnormal adjusted-returns against the developed world market benchmark for the single-factor and multifactor models. For the European market benchmark, we found environmental mutual funds presenting a positive performance for both models and conventional funds displaying negative results for the single-factor model and positive results for the multifactor model. The factor loadings for green funds indicated a negative load on momentum, book-to-market (HML) and size (SMB) factors, revealing a higher exposure to big and value companies. Subsampling per business cycle exhibited green mutual funds providing higher risk-adjusted returns to investors during crisis periods and mixed results for the non-crisis periods.

Momentum strategies in times of economic policy uncertainty

PurposeThis paper aims to evaluate the influence of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the momentum effect, analysing its influence depending on the economic cycle and in different quantiles.Design/methodology/approachTo determine the influence of EPU in the momentum effect taking into account the economic cycle and the level of the quantile, linear regression and quantile regression have been applied for the period from 2 January 1985 to 30 April 2019 for the US stock market.FindingsIt is shown that an increased feeling of insecurity associated with EPU reduces the momentum effect, especially in times of recession. Distinguishing by quantiles, an asymmetry in the impact of EPU in the momentum effect is discovered, finding that EPU reduces (increases) the profits of momentum strategies in the lowest (highest) quantiles. In the highest quantiles, an investor can obtain higher extraordinary returns with this strategy. For example, in the highest quantile, a one-point increase in the EPU levels would have increased the daily profitability by 12.7 basis points. These findings have important implications for investors and policymakers.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper that evaluates the influence of EPU on the momentum effect by conducting an analysis based on the economic cycle and different quantiles, demonstrating how these factors are relevant in the influence of this uncertainty in the momentum anomaly.

Hardship Among Immigrants and the Native-born in the United States.

This study examines the prevalence of several types of hardship (e.g., bill paying and housing hardships) among immigrants by race and ethnicity in the United States using data from the 2008 and 2014 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation and logistic regressions. I find that Blacks, and to some extent Hispanics, are more likely to report hardships than Whites and Asians, who are about equally likely to report hardships. Exploring results by nativity and citizenship status, I find that immigrants who became U.S. citizens are less likely than the native-born population to report some kinds of hardship. Undocumented immigrants, however, are more likely to report some kinds of hardships, particularly in the 2008 panel conducted at the time of the Great Recession, which hit immigrants especially hard; this relationship, however, is explained by the lower incomes of undocumented immigrant households in the 2008 panel. Results within racial and ethnic groups are generally in the same direction but are less frequently statistically significant. Overall, these findings suggest that immigrants are not particularly prone to hardship, especially when other characteristics are controlled for. In fact, the lower likelihood of some hardships among foreign-born citizens suggests that they are positively selected: they may have unobserved characteristics that are protective, such as better health, stronger social networks, or money management skills. Because the foreign-born are less likely to be disadvantaged vis-à-vis the native-born when hardship rather than the official income poverty measure is used, this study highlights the importance of using multiple measures when assessing the well-being of immigrants.

CHARACTERIZING WATER DISTRIBUTION OF FURROW IRRIGATION TO IMPROVE SOIL PRODUCTIVITY IN NORTH NILE DELTA OF EGYPT

Field trials were conducted at Sakha farm, Kafr EL-Sheikh Governorate, Egypt to find the best interaction between furrow design, cut-off irrigation, Alternative furrow irrigation, discharge and phosphorus fertilization to enhance faba bean productivity and profit (Net Return) of North Nile Delta soils. Design and evaluate the effect off cut off irrigation (100 % (I1), 90 % (I2) and 85 % (I3) from furrow length) and alternative furrow irrigation (I4) with 4 lps/m irrigation discharge and four fertilization treatments; F1 (100% Rp, as control), F2 (75 % Rp +Phosphorien), F3 (65 % Rp+ Phosphorien) and F4 (55 % Rp+ Phosphorien) on infiltration characteristics, intake family and chosen irrigation parameters with post irrigation of feba bean crop. The results showed that, the infiltration rate decreased rapidly at elapsed time 4 hours in the two studied seasons and individual regression is considered representative of the soil intake conditions. The distribution uniformity for applied water is more than 0.9 under different cut-off irrigation and alternative furrow irrigation. Application efficiency increased as intake family decreased and is the best discharge management for furrow inflow rate at 2 lps/m. The measured irrigation time, and advance time was higher than the designed. While the designed recession time, opportunity time and the ratio between irrigation time and advance time were higher than measured values. The ratio of inflow time to advance time for design parameters is more than 2 meanwhile, the design is valid in studied soil. The highest ratio was obtained with cut-off at 85% from furrow length. It can be concluded that the highest values of irrigation application efficiency were obtained with cut-off at 85% from furrow length for design and measured parameters. Concerning the economic evaluation, I4 combined with F3 achieved the highest values of net return and benefit cost ratio followed by combined treatments I3F3, while the lowest values of specific cost was detected with I4F3.