Recent Warming Research Articles

Impact of Short-Term Exposure to Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) and Ozone (O3) on Hospital Admissions for Non-ST-Segment Elevation Acute Coronary Syndrome.

In the context of recent climate change, global warming, industrial growth, and population expansion, air pollution has emerged as a significant environmental and human health risk. This study employed a multivariable Poisson regression analysis to examine the association between short-term exposure to atmospheric pollutants (nitrogen dioxide-NO2, sulfur dioxide -SO2, ozone-O3, and particulate matter with a diameter less than 10 μm-PM10) and hospital admissions for non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS). Daily data on NSTE-ACS admissions, air pollutants, and meteorological variables were collected from January 2019 to December 2021. Elevated NO2 concentrations were associated with a higher risk of NSTE-ACS hospitalization, notably in spring (OR: 1.426; 95% CI: 1.196-1.701). Hypertensive individuals (OR: 1.101; 95% CI: 1.007-1.204) and those diagnosed with unstable angina (OR: 1.107; 95%CI: 1.010-1.213) exhibited heightened susceptibility to elevated NO2 concentrations. A 10 μg/m3 increase in NO2 during spring at lag 07 (OR: 1.013; 95% CI: 1.001-1.025) and O3 in winter at lag 05 (OR: 1.007; 95% CI: 1.001-1.014) was correlated with an elevated daily occurrence of NSTE-ACS admissions. Short-term exposure to various air pollutants posed an increased risk of NSTE-ACS hospitalization, with heightened sensitivity observed in hypertensive patients and those with unstable angina. Addressing emerging environmental risk factors is crucial to mitigate substantial impacts on human health and the environment.

Assessing long-term diatom changes in sub-Arctic ponds receiving high fluxes of seabird nutrients.

Algal bioindicators, such as diatoms, often show subdued responses to eutrophication in Arctic lakes because climate-related changes (e.g., ice cover) tend to be the overriding factors influencing assemblage composition. Here, we examined how sub-Arctic ponds historically receiving high nutrient inputs from nesting seabirds have responded to recent climate change. We present diatom data obtained from 12 sediment cores in seaduck-affected ponds located on islands through Hudson Strait, Canada. All study cores show consistently elevated values of sedimentary ẟ15N, an established proxy for tracking marine-derived nutrients, indicating seabirds have been present on these islands for at least the duration of the sediment records (~100 to 400 years). We document diverse epiphytic diatom assemblages to the base of all sediment cores, which is in marked contrast to seabird-free Arctic ponds-these oligotrophic sites typically record epilithic diatom flora prior to recent warming. Diatoms are likely responding indirectly to seabird nutrients via habitat as nutrients promote the growth of mosses supporting epiphytic diatom communities. This masks the typical diatom response to increased warming in the Arctic, which also results in habitat changes and the growth of mosses around the pond edges. Changes in sedimentary chlorophyll a were not consistently synchronous with large changes in ẟ15N values, suggesting that primary production in ponds is not responding linearly to changes in seabird-derived nitrogen. Across all ponds, we recorded shifts in diatom epiphytic assemblages (e.g., increases in % relative abundance of many Nitzschia species) that often align with increases in chlorophyll a. The changes in diatoms and chlorophyll a, although variable, are most likely driven by climate change as they are generally consistent with longer ice-free conditions and growing seasons. Together, our results show that to effectively use diatoms in animal population reconstructions across the sub-Arctic and Arctic, a strong understanding of eutrophication and climate change, based on supplementary proxies, is also required.

Sea surface temperature reconstruction in the Pacific Ocean using multi-elemental proxy in Porites and Diploastrea corals: Application to Palau Archipelago

Massive reef-building Porites corals are commonly studied to obtain long-term reconstructions of past sea surface temperature (SST) using temperature-sensitive elemental proxies, such as Sr/Ca or Li/Mg ratios. Most recently, a multi-proxy approach combining these two ratios (e.g. D'Olivo et al., 2018) and the SrU method (DeCarlo et al., 2016) have proved to be more robust to reconstruct paleo-temperatures. To date, no study has been carried out on the application of these new approaches on the Diploastrea heliopora coral, another massive reef-building genus that can potentially provide longer temperature records. Moreover, only a few studies have assessed coral SST calibrations at the scale of the Indo-Pacific basin and compared SST reconstructions obtained from two massive coral genera from the same site.In this study, we investigated the elemental composition of the topmost portion of 34 modern tropical Porites and 6 Diploastrea colonies collected during the Tara Pacific expedition (2016–2018) from various hydrological contexts in the Pacific Ocean. We derived and discussed annual Sr/Ca, Li/Mg, combined Sr/Ca-Li/Mg and Sr/Ca-Li/Ca-Mg/Ca and SrU vs. SST calibrations as well as potential intra-colonial and genus specific effects and evaluated the use of these basin-wide calibration equations. Overall, multi-ratio and multi-genera SST calibrations perform better than single-ratio calibrations and seem to improve temperature reconstructions.These new SST calibrations were applied to two colonies of Porites and Diploastrea collected from the same site in the North-West of the Palau archipelago located in the western Pacific Ocean to evaluate the applicability of universal calibrations based on different proxies and their combination. Coral-based SST records spanning the last 141 years show decadal changes and recent warming episodes that are related to major El Niño Southern Oscillation events. However, differences in reconstruction remain between both genera in the long-term trends, amplitudes, and absolute temperatures, depending on which genus or temperature proxy is considered.

Trends and oscillations in arctic mediterranean atmospheric static stability during recent arctic warming

The long-term variation in the static stability of lower atmosphere (SSLA) in the Arctic Mediterranean is investigated using reanalysis data. Climatological SSLA is categorized into a high-value region (Polar Region) and two low-value regions in the Norwegian Sea (Region-A) and southern part of Iceland (Region-B). The variations of SSLA are divided into trends and oscillations. In the Polar Region, SSLA exhibited a decreasing trend due to Arctic warming and sea ice decline, with negligible oscillatory variations. In Region-A and Region-B, the trends of SSLA are insignificant, while the oscillatory variation becomes obvious. SSLA there are highly correlated to Arctic Oscillation (AO) Index and vertical velocity. The driving factors in weakening SSLA are vertical velocity and surface heating, related to enhanced warm water advection dominated by AO. The variation of SSLA in turn feeds back the vertical velocity and AO.

Two Centuries of Winter Temperature Variability Inferred from Betula ermanii Ring Widths near the Forests/Tundra Ecotone in the Changbai Mountain, China

In this study, we constructed a ring-width chronology derived from Betula ermanii (BE) near the transitional zone between forests and tundra within the Changbai Mountain (CBM) region. This chronology was established utilizing 55 cores obtained from 30 trees. Our analysis of growth/climate responses underscores the pivotal role of the mean maximum winter temperature in influencing radial growth. Drawing upon these growth/climate associations, we reconstructed the mean maximum temperature series for December of the preceding year through January of the current year for the years 1787 and 2005 CE, employing a standardized chronology. During the calibration period (1960–2005), the reconstructed series exhibited an explained variance of 36%. This reconstruction provides crucial insights into historical temperature fluctuations within the study area. Our findings indicate that year-to-year temperature variations did not manifest synchronously along the altitude gradient of Changbai Mountain. Notably, the response to recent winter warming exhibited disparities with the altitude on Changbai Mountain. Specifically, the higher altitude range (1950–2000 m a.s.l.) displayed a response to warming around 1960, the mid-altitude range (765–1188 m a.s.l.) responded around 1975, and the lowest altitude (650 m a.s.l.) responded by 1977. Consequently, the paleotemperature research outcomes from Changbai Mountain alone may not adequately characterize climate change in this region. We recommend future high-resolution temperature records be obtained through sampling at various altitudes to enhance the comprehensiveness of our understanding.

Weakening Indian monsoon favors vegetation growth in humid but not in semi-arid ecosystems

The weakening Indian monsoon during recent warmer decades has caused greening and browning trends in water- and energy-limited terrestrial ecosystems of the Tibetan Plateau, respectively. Little is known, however, on the underlying mechanisms of such divergent responses of vegetation to the monsoon weakening. Herein, using the Indian monsoon index, high-resolution vegetation indices and multi-source climate data, we assessed the response of vegetation greenness to the Indian monsoon from 2000 to 2018 in two adjacent basins dominated by water- and energy-limited ecosystems and located in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. The two basins showed opposite greenness trends due to direct and indirect effects of the weakening monsoon. The weakening monsoon increased vegetation greenness in the humid sites due to more heat exposure and solar radiation, but not in dry sites because of amplified drought stress. Thus, a weaker monsoon would not favor productivity in drought-prone ecosystems, whereas it would benefit energy-limited sites due to more radiation and warmer conditions associated to lower cloudiness. The effect of atmospheric circulation and its inter-decadal oscillation on basin-scale ecological processes should be therefore taken into account to refine earth system models and climate forecasts.

Interactive effects of climate-atmospheric cycling on aquatic communities and ecosystem shifts in mountain lakes of southeastern Tibetan Plateau

Recent climate warming and atmospheric reactive nitrogen (Nr) deposition are affecting a broad spectrum of physical, ecological and human systems that may be irreversible on a century time scale and have the potential to cause regime shifts in ecological systems. These changes may alter the limnological conditions with important but still unclear effects on lake ecosystems. We present changes in cladoceran with comparisons to diatom assemblages over the past ~200 years from high-resolution, well-dated sediment cores retrieved from six high mountain lakes in the southeastern (SE) margin of the Tibetan Plateau. Our findings suggest that warming and the exponential increase of atmospheric Nr deposition are the major drivers of ecological regime changes. Shifts in cladoceran and diatom communities in high alpine lakes began over a century ago and intensified since 1950 CE, indicating a regional-scale response to anthropogenic climate warming. Zooplankton in the forest lakes showed asynchronous trajectories, with increased Nr deposition as a significant explanatory factor. Forest lakes with higher dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations partially buffered the impacts of Nr deposition with little structural change, while lakes with low DOC display symptoms of resilience loss related to Nr deposition. Biological community compositional turnover in subalpine lakes has shown marked shifts, equivalent to those of low-elevation lakes strongly affected by direct human impacts. This suggests that local effects override climatic forcing and that lake basin features modified by anthropogenic activity act as basin-specific filters of common forcing. Our results indicate that snow and glacial meltwaters along with nutrient enrichment related to climate warming and atmospheric Nr deposition, represent major threats for lake ecosystems, even in remote areas. We reveal that climate and atmospheric contaminants will further impact ecological conditions and alter aquatic food webs in higher altitude biomes if climate and anthropogenic forcing continue.

Plankton community changes during the last 124 000years in the subarctic Bering Sea derived from sedimentary ancient DNA.

Current global warming results in rising sea-water temperatures, and the loss of sea ice in Arctic and subarctic oceans impacts the community composition of primary producers with cascading effects on the food web and potentially on carbon export rates. This study analyzes metagenomic shotgun and diatom rbcL amplicon sequencing data from sedimentary ancient DNA of the subarctic western Bering Sea that records phyto- and zooplankton community changes over the last glacial-interglacial cycles, including the last interglacial period (Eemian). Our data show that interglacial and glacial plankton communities differ, with distinct Eemian and Holocene plankton communities. The generally warm Holocene period is dominated by picosized cyanobacteria and bacteria-feeding heterotrophic protists, while the Eemian period is dominated by eukaryotic picosized chlorophytes and Triparmaceae. By contrast, the glacial period is characterized by microsized phototrophic protists, including sea ice-associated diatoms in the family Bacillariaceae and co-occurring diatom-feeding crustaceous zooplankton. Our deep-time record of plankton community changes reveals a long-term decrease in phytoplankton cell size coeval with increasing temperatures, resembling community changes in the currently warming Bering Sea. The phytoplankton community in the warmer-than-present Eemian period is distinct from modern communities and limits the use of the Eemian as an analog for future climate scenarios. However, under enhanced future warming, the expected shift toward the dominance of small-sized phytoplankton and heterotrophic protists might result in an increased productivity, whereas the community's potential of carbon export will be decreased, thereby weakening the subarctic Bering Sea's function as an effective carbon sink.

Major tree species of Central European forests differ in their proportion of positive, negative, and nonstationary growth trends

AbstractTemperate forests are undergoing significant transformations due to the influence of climate change, including varying responses of different tree species to increasing temperature and drought severity. To comprehensively understand the full range of growth responses, representative datasets spanning extensive site and climatic gradients are essential. This study utilizes tree‐ring data from 550 sites from the temperate forests of Czechia to assess growth trends of six dominant Central European tree species (European beech, Norway spruce, Scots pine, silver fir, sessile and pedunculate oak) over 1990–2014. By modeling mean growth series for each species and site, and employing principal component analysis, we identified the predominant growth trends. Over the study period, linear growth trends were evident across most sites (56% increasing, 32% decreasing, and 10% neutral). The proportion of sites with stationary positive trends increased from low toward high elevations, whereas the opposite was true for the stationary negative trends. Notably, within the middle range of their distribution (between 500 and 700 m a.s.l.), Norway spruce and European beech exhibited a mix of positive and negative growth trends. While Scots pine growth trends showed no clear elevation‐based pattern, silver fir and oaks displayed consistent positive growth trends regardless of site elevation, indicating resilience to the ongoing warming. We demonstrate divergent growth trajectories across space and among species. These findings are particularly important as recent warming has triggered a gradual shift in the elevation range of optimal growth conditions for most tree species and has also led to a decoupling of growth trends between lowlands and mountain areas. As a result, further future shifts in the elevation range and changes in species diversity of European temperate forests can be expected.

Forecasting extreme precipitations by using polynomial regression

It is well known that the recent global warming intensifies the magnitude of rainfalls due to the increase in water content in the atmosphere. Therefore, the probability of exceeding the previously observed extreme precipitation values also increases with the experienced climate change, and forecasting extreme weather events is becoming more important. This paper presents a new polynomial regression approach and software (PolReg), where future extreme precipitations exceeding all previous observations are estimated for each month of year by using prediction bounds with a level of certainty at 95%. The presented method determines the degrees and coefficients of best-fitting polynomials for each precipitation station and forecasts the expected extreme value for each month of year by using the determined polynomials. The performance of the method is tested by removing and estimating a total of 792 highest observed monthly total precipitation values of 66 precipitation stations in Turkey (the highest observation for each month of year for each station). The results show that the proposed method and the provided software have a high performance and accuracy in estimating future precipitation extremes and might be applied in many disciplines dealing with forecasting probable extreme values.

DROUGHT STRESS ALLEVIATION: THE CONTRIBUTION OF A SOIL BACTERIUM AND AN ARBUSCULAR MYCORRHIZAL FUNGUS IN SCALLION

Recent climate change and global warming have caused extreme heat and low rainfall which negatively affected soil nutrient, fertility status, decreased water content, and changed physiochemical properties of agricultural soils in many parts of the globe. As a result of drought, crop production is seriously reduced. The beneficial effects of soil microorganisms including arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi and rhizospheric bacteria on crop production and soil health are vital for the sustainable management of stressed agricultural practices. The present study evaluated the effects of an arbuscular mycorrhizal fungus, Rhizophagus irregularis, and a rhizospheric bacterium, Pseudomonas flourescens, alone and in dual inoculation on the survival, growth, mycorrhizal colonization, nutrient uptake, glomalin production, and soil aggregation of Allium fistulosum plants. In water-stressed soil, seedling survival, growth, total biomass, nutrient uptake, glomalin production, and soil aggregation were significantly increased when inoculated with R. irregularis and P. flourescens. Dual inoculation with R. irregularis and P. flourescens produced vigorous seedlings which contained higher amount of nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium contents, glomalin production, and soil aggregation compared to single inoculation. The present results indicate that arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi and beneficial rhizospheric bacteria offer potential for biofertilizers and mitigating drought in A. fistulosum plants.

Seasonal Analysis and Capacity Planning of Solar Energy Demand-to-Supply Management: Case Study of a Logistics Distribution Center

In recent years, global warming and environmental problems have become more serious due to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Harvesting solar energy for production and logistic activities in supply chains, including factories and distribution centers, has been promoted as an effective means to reduce GHG emissions. However, it is difficult to balance the supply and demand of solar energy, owing to its intermittent nature, i.e., the output depends on the daylight and season. Moreover, the use of large-capacity solar power generation systems and batteries incurs higher installation costs. In order to maintain low costs, demand-to-supply management of solar energy, based on appropriate seasonal analysis of power generation and consumption and the capacity planning for power generation and the storage battery, is necessary. In this study, the on-demand cumulative control method is applied to actual power consumption data and solar power generation data estimated at a distribution center. Moreover, the monthly, seasonal, and temporal characteristics of power generation and consumption at the distribution center are analyzed. Additionally, the total amount of power purchased is investigated for solar energy demand-to-supply management.

An 8500-year history of climate-fire-vegetation interactions in the eastern maritime black spruce–moss bioclimatic domain, Québec, Canada

ABSTRACT The eastern, maritime portion of the black spruce – moss bioclimatic domain in Québec (Canada) is characterized by large wildfires with low occurrence. However, it is still poorly understood how climate–fire interactions influenced long-term vegetation dynamics in the boreal forest of eastern Québec. The long-term historical climate–fire–vegetation interactions in this region were investigated using a multiproxy (chironomids, charcoal, and pollen) paleoecological analysis of an 8500-year sediment core. Chironomid-inferred August air temperatures suggest that the warm Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM; between ca. 7000–4000 cal yr BP) shifted to the cooler Neoglacial period (4000 cal yr BP to present), consistent with other temperature reconstructions across Québec. The shift to spruce-moss forest dominance around 4800 cal yr BP occurred nearly a thousand years before the climatic shift to the Neoglacial period and rather coincided with a shift from frequent low-severity small fires to infrequent but large and severe fire events. Our results suggest that long-term changes in the summer temperature are probably not the main factor controlling fire and vegetation dynamics in eastern Québec. It seems that, throughout the postglacial period, summer temperatures never fell below a threshold that could have induced a significant vegetation response.

Predicted Dynamic of Biodeterioration in Cultural Heritage Stones Due to Climate Changes in Humid Tropical Regions—A Case Study on the Rhodotorula sp. Yeast

The recent global warming started at the end of the 19th century, causing an increase in the average temperature of Earth and posing environmental, social, economic, and cultural repercussions. Much tangible cultural heritage is composed of natural stones, which decay due to the combination of chemical, physical, and biological factors. Biodeterioration leads to a loss of the performance requirements and socio-economic value of stone building materials. In the future, the dynamics of biodeterioration will hypothetically vary. This study aims to shed light on this variation by comparing biodeterioration under historical climatic conditions (1995–2014) with a future scenario defined by the IPCC SSP5-8.5 for the reference period 2080–2099. The material tested is Pedra de Ançã (PA), a candidate for World Heritage Stone. Climatic chambers were used to simulate the historical and predicted environmental conditions. The scope of this investigation is to understand the growth dynamic of the biodeteriogen Rhodotorula sp. and to study the morphological and aesthetic variations of stone surfaces. Biochemical and micro-topographic analyses highlighted the metabolic activity of the population proliferating under distinct environmental conditions, revealing better adaptability of Rhodotorula sp. and higher biocorrosion in the historical climate status with respect to the future.

Sediment records from Lake Nipissing (ON, Canada) register a lake-wide multi-trophic response to climate change and reveal its possible role for increased cyanobacterial blooms

Recurring cyanobacterial blooms have been reported in Lake Nipissing (Ontario, Canada) since at least 2000. However, monitoring data indicate that surface water nutrient concentrations have not increased over the past ∼45 years in this large, shallow, mesotrophic lake. Applying paleolimnological methods, we establish baseline environmental conditions and extend the Lake Nipissing water quality data to pre-industrial times. Lake-wide assessment of changes in nutrient status, algal production, and effects of climate warming are provided by examining: 1) modern and pre-industrial sedimentary diatom assemblages from nine locations; 2) temporal trends in sedimentary photosynthetic pigments over ∼200 years from five locations; and 3) detailed sedimentary profiles of diatom and chironomid assemblage composition from Callander Bay, spanning the past ∼200 years. A pronounced shift in diatom assemblage composition was registered at all sites with pre-industrial sediments dominated by Aulacoseira spp. and modern samples dominated by Discostella stelligera. The detailed diatom analysis for Callander Bay indicated that this shift occurred ca. 1990. Since ca. 1975, cyanobacterial production (spectrally inferred from sediments) exceeded the ∼200-year mean and matches the observed increase in bloom reports. Twentieth century shifts in chironomid assemblages in Callander Bay from Procladius to Chironomus spp. dominance indicate lower hypolimnetic oxygen in recent decades. Collectively, these changes suggest that previously polymictic Lake Nipissing is now experiencing periods of thermal stratification and development of transient anoxia in bottom waters. These conditions are more prevalent and widespread in modern Lake Nipissing, consistent with a response to recent warming, decreased wind speed, and a longer ice-free period.

LEADING MODES AND FEATURE ZONES OF SEA ICE CONCENTRATION IN NORTH PACIFIC DURING SPRING SEASONS OF 2000–2020

Under the influence of the Arctic amplification, sea ice variability in North Pacific is becoming a key indicator of global climate changes. Due to the widespread and complex impacts of North Pacific sea ice variations, the understanding of its dynamic changes, especially its spatial and temporal evolution patterns, has great significance. In this study, we used the rotated empirical orthogonal decomposition to divide the whole North Pacific into six feature zones on the evolution sea ice concentration under the recent global warming and highlighted the complexity and diversity of sea ice variations in the offshore waters.

Consideration of Whether a Climatic Regime Shift Has Prevented the Occurrence of a Cold Summer in Northeast Eurasia since 2010

Abstract Does a warming world, where extremely hot summers are becoming more common, mean that cold summers will never again occur? It is crucial to know whether extremely cold summers are still possible, as such knowledge will significantly impact decisions regarding the further adaptation of crops to cold summers. Japan, which has suffered from many extremely cold summers, has managed past agricultural disruptions with emergency rice imports. In this paper, we show that a climate regime shift associated with the positive phase shift of the summer Arctic Oscillation occurred in 2010 in northeast Eurasia, making the occurrence of extremely cold summers highly unlikely as long as this new regime persists. In fact, Japan has not experienced a cold summer since 2010, while extremely hot summers have been frequent. Since 2010, a double-jet structure with subtropical and polar jets has strengthened, and the polar jet has meandered farther north of Japan, resulting in an upper-tropospheric anticyclone. This anticyclone, which extends downward and tilts southward, reaches southern Japan and prevents cold advection of oceanic air over the cold Oyashio. The Okhotsk high, known as the leading cause of cold summers, has occurred frequently in recent years; however, cold summers have not occurred due to the tilting anticyclone. The recent warming of the Oyashio weakens cold advection. The Pacific–Japan pattern, known as a remote tropical influence, has been weakened. A better understanding of the regime shift will help us understand the tilting anticyclone and the associated extreme summers in northeast Eurasia. Significance Statement Extremely cold summers are among the most destructive natural disasters, both socioeconomically and agriculturally. Historically, food shortages due to cold summers have triggered wars. This paper proposes that a hemispheric-scale climate regime shift occurred in or around 2010. This regime shift has included warmings in the North Pacific and East Eurasian land surface temperatures. The regime shift is accompanied by the positive shift of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), a jet meander, and an upper-tropospheric anticyclone, making eastern Eurasia extremely hot. Our results imply that extremely cold summers are unlikely to occur in eastern Eurasia so long as this regime persists. Moving forward, it is important that the link between this regime shift and global warming be explored.

Holocene warming of alpine rockwalls decreased rockwall erosion rates

Alpine rockwall erosion studies suggest that deglaciated rockwalls in the European Alps are eroding slower today than at earlier times in the Holocene. Explanations for this have included a waned glacial debuttressing effect since the retreat of Last Glacial ice loads and the establishment of more moderate climates, but seldom have such explanations been robustly tested. We combine field data with modelling to reconstruct changes in rockwall erosion and associated climate drivers, in an alpine valley of the European Alps since the beginning of the Holocene. Paleo (Holocene to decadal-scale) erosion rates were calculated from talus accumulation below rockwalls, and compared with recent rates (2016–2019) measured from repeat laserscan surveys of the same rockwalls. We reconstructed the glacial retreat history in the valley, and modelled Holocene changes in permafrost distribution and frost cracking using calibrated rockwall temperature reconstructions. We found that rockwalls that have been free of glacier ice since ∼10 ka experienced higher Holocene-averaged erosion rates compared to recent erosion rates. Our modelling suggests this relates to periods of higher intensities of frost cracking and cycles of permafrost aggradation and degradation in the Holocene, relative to today. For a recently deglaciated high-elevation rockwall, erosion rates were 1–2 orders of magnitude greater than the lower-elevation sites, but decayed rapidly over time since deglaciation. A high, but rapidly decaying rate results from short-lived paraglacial adjustment, permafrost thaw and high frost cracking activity. Our findings suggest that periglacial activity strongly influences the rates and patterns of erosion of deglaciated alpine rockwalls. This helps to explain why paleo Holocene deglaciated rockwall erosion rates tend to exceed recent rates in the European Alps.

Spring phytoplankton bloom phenology during recent climate warming on the Bering Sea shelf

High-latitude ecosystems commonly experience large phytoplankton blooms in spring, which provide basal resources for a range of grazers including zooplankton, benthic consumers and fishes. Variation of the timing and intensity of the spring phytoplankton bloom influences the degree of spatial and temporal overlap with consuming organisms. In the Bering Sea, blooms occur in association with ice retreat or as pelagic open-water blooms. In the last few years, the Bering Sea shelf experienced unprecedented and widespread warming. Understanding how those climatic changes subsequently influenced phytoplankton bloom dynamics is critical for evaluating Bering Sea food web responses. We estimate spring bloom timing and type (ice-associated, open-water) across the Bering Sea shelf using a combination of data from the long-running oceanographic moorings on the eastern shelf (M2, M4, M5, M8) and satellite ocean color data from 1998 to 2022. We assess 1) if the Bering Sea shelf experienced noticeable changes in spring bloom timing or type in the last two decades, 2) whether bloom phenology was accentuated by the recent warm period (2018–2019), and 3) what influences do winds and sea surface temperatures have on spring bloom timing and where are these variables influential? Our spatial analyses reinforce the conclusion that ice retreat is the dominant forcing factor of bloom timing for the Bering Sea shelf with some influence of wind for open-water blooms. Overall, bloom timing has not shifted seasonally with climate warming in the last two decades for most of the Bering Sea shelf, except for nearshore areas and mainly in the northern Bering Sea. In warm years when ice retreats early prior to the last week of March, blooms form in open waters and bloom timing on the middle and outer shelf is delayed when wind mixing is prevalent in ice-free springs. In recent years, open-water blooms were more widespread than previously experienced, and even occurred in the northern Bering Sea during 2018–2019. A progression to more open water blooms in a future warmer climate will influence the availability of basal resources for pelagic and benthic consumers.

Threatened European butterflies concentrate in areas of strong climatic change and atmospheric deposition pressure

Land use change, as a result of many local-scale decisions scaling up to large spatial extents, is considered the main threat to European butterflies. The impact of large-scale pressures, such as atmospheric nitrogen deposition or climate change, is less understood or less documented, respectively. However, it is acknowledged that they might reinforce the pressure on already threatened species. To evaluate the additional threat exerted by these pressures we compared their geographical pattern to those of threatened butterflies across Europe. We therefore derived range maps of 383 butterfly species and used two species-specific threat assessments derived from national and European Red Lists. We then used Spearman rank-correlations and beta-regressions to compare two metrics of species threat per 10 × 10 km raster cells with geographical patterns of cumulative nitrogen depositions from 1980 to 2015, as well as the magnitude of change in precipitation sums and temperature means between the decades 1979–1988 and 2004–2013. We found that threatened species tend to concentrate in areas with high nitrogen depositions and pronounced summer temperature changes. In particular, parts of central and eastern Europe were both hotspots of threatened butterflies and hotspots of climatic pressure. This spatial coincidence of the distribution of threatened butterfly species with large-scale patterns of nitrogen depositions and recent climate warming indicates an already considerable risk of regional to continental extinctions that will likely increase further in the future as climate change will most likely intensify. Consequences for area-based conservation measures are discussed.