Recent Climate Trends Research Articles

Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate

Understanding the causes of recent climatic trends and variability in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere is hampered by a short instrumental record. Here, we analyse recent atmosphere, surface ocean and sea-ice observations in this region and assess their trends in the context of palaeoclimate records and climate model simulations. Over the 36-year satellite era, significant linear trends in annual mean sea-ice extent, surface temperature and sea-level pressure are superimposed on large interannual to decadal variability. Most observed trends, however, are not unusual when compared with Antarctic palaeoclimate records of the past two centuries. With the exception of the positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode, climate model simulations that include anthropogenic forcing are not compatible with the observed trends. This suggests that natural variability overwhelms the forced response in the observations, but the models may not fully represent this natural variability or may overestimate the magnitude of the forced response.

Recent Climate Trends and Drought Behavioral Assessment Based on Precipitation and Temperature Data Series in the Songhua River Basin of China

Precise analysis of spatiotemporal trends of temperature, precipitation and meteorological droughts plays a key role in the sustainable management of water resources in the given region. This study first aims to detect the long-term climate (monthly/seasonally and annually) trends from the historical temperature and precipitation data series by applying Spearmen’s Rho and Mann-Kendall test at 5 % significant level. The measurements of both climate variables for a total period of 49 years (1965–2013) were collected from the 11 different meteorological stations located in the Songhua River basin of China. Secondly, the two well-known meteorological drought indices including the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) were applied on normalize data to detect the drought hazards at 3, 6, 9 and 12 month time scale in the study area. The analysis of monthly precipitation showed significant (p < 0.05) increasing trends during the winter (November and December months) season. Similarly, the results of seasonal and annual air temperature showed a significant increase from 1 °C to 1.5 °C for the past 49 years in the basin. According to the Sen’s slope estimator, the rate of increment in seasonal temperature slope (0.26 °C/season) and precipitation (9.02 mm/season) were greater than annual air temperature (0.04 °C/year) and precipitation (1.36 mm/year). By comparing the results of SPI and RDI indices showed good performance at 9 (r = 0.96, p < 0.01) and 12 (r = 0.99, p < 0.01) month drought analysis. However, the yearly drought analysis at over all stations indicated that a 20 years were under dry conditions in entire study area during 49 years. We found the extreme dry and wet conditions in the study region were prevailing during the years of 2001 and 2007, and 1994 and 2013, respectively. Overall, the analysis and quantifications of this study provides a mechanism for the policy makers to mitigate the impact of extreme climate and drought conditions in order to improve local water resources management in the region.

North Atlantic-Fennoscandian Holocene climate trends and mechanisms

Abstract To investigate the mechanisms behind Holocene regional climate trends from north of 58°N in the North Atlantic-Fennoscandian region Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was performed and a temperature anomaly stack produced from 81 proxy derived summer temperature time series from 74 sites. The PC results show distinctly different trends for near-surface versus surface temperatures, demonstrating the importance of handling these separately. The first PC of weighted sea surface summer temperature time series and continental time series explains 45 ± 8% of the variance, where the uncertainty is the standard deviation of the distribution of variance explained across the 1000 age-uncertain ensemble members. PC1 has a relatively uniform expression over the whole region, closely following the summer insolation at 65°N. The second PC explains 22 ± 4% of the variance and shows a non-uniform expression, with loadings in opposite directions in the northern and southeastern parts of the region. Comparing the PC time series with model runs and with the timing of the demise of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS), suggest that this pattern reflects both topographic and albedo effects of the LIS as well as release of meltwater into the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. Comparing the stack of gridded records with published global stacks reveals an unusual Holocene temperature development in the North Atlantic-Fennoscandian region most likely resulting from the location relative to the decaying LIS.

Predicting the Extent of Wildfires Using Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture and Temperature Trends

Recent climate trends evidence a rise of temperatures and an increase in the duration and intensity of droughts which is in turn leading to the occurrence of larger wildfires, which threaten the environment as well as human lives and beings. In this context, improved wildfires prediction tools are urgently needed. In this paper, the use of remotely sensed soil moisture data as a key variable in the climate-wildfires relationship is explored. The study is centered in the fires registered in the Iberian Peninsula during the period 2010–2014. Their prior-to-occurrence surface moisture-temperature conditions were analyzed using SMOS-derived soil moisture data and ERA-Interim land surface temperature reanalysis. Results showed that moisture and temperature conditions limited the extent of wildfires, and a potential maximum burned area per moisture-temperature paired values was obtained ( R 2 = 0.43). The model relating fire extent with moisture-temperature preconditions was improved by including information on land cover, regions, and the month of the fire outbreak ( R 2 = 0.68). Model predictions had an accuracy of 83.3% with a maximum error of 40.5 ha. Results were majorly coherent with wildfires behavior in the Iberian Peninsula and reflected the duality between Euro-Siberian and Mediterranean regions in terms of expected burned area. The proposed model has a promising potential for the enhancement of fire prevention services.

Impacts of recent climate change on trends in baseflow and stormflow in United States watersheds

AbstractCharacterizing the impacts of climatic change on hydrologic processes is critical for managing freshwater systems. Specifically, there is a need to evaluate how the two major components of streamflow, baseflow and stormflow, have responded to recent trends in climate. We derive baseflow and stormflow for 674 sites throughout the United States from 1980 to 2010 to examine their associations with precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and maximum/minimum temperature. The northeastern (NE) and southwestern (SW) United States display consistent trends in baseflow and stormflow: increasing during fall and winter in the NE and decreasing during all seasons in the SW. Trends elsewhere and at other times of the year are more variable but still associated with changes in climate. Counter to expectations, baseflow and stormflow trends throughout the United States tend to change concurrently. These trends are primarily associated with precipitation trends, but increases in PET are influential and likely to become important in the future.

The influence of water stress on grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) shoots in a cool, humid climate: growth, gas exchange and hydraulics

Recent climatic trends of higher average temperatures and erratic precipitation patterns are resulting in decreased soil moisture availability and, consequently, periods of water stress. We studied the effects of seasonal water stress on grapevine (Vitis vinifera L. cv. Riesling grafted onto 101-14 (Vitis riparia Michx.×Vitis rupestris Scheele) rootstock) shoot growth, leaf gas exchange, xylem morphology and hydraulic performance in the cool-climate Finger Lakes region of New York. A plastic rain exclusion tarp was installed on the vineyard floor to create a soil moisture deficit and consequently induce vine water stress. Weekly measurements of predawn leaf and midday stem water potentials (Ψmd) were made, and two contrasting shoot length classes, long (length >2.0m) and short (length <1.0m), were monitored. Growth of both long and short shoots was positively correlated with Ψmd but no difference in water status was found between the two. Compared with rain-fed vines, water-stressed vines had lower photosynthesis and stomatal conductance later in the season when Ψmd dropped below -1.2MPa. Long shoots had three-fold higher xylem-specific hydraulic conductivity values than short shoots. Long shoots experiencing water stress were less vulnerable to xylem cavitation than shorter shoots even though they had more large-diameter vessels. The lower vulnerability to cavitation of long shoots may be attributed to less xylem intervessel pitting being found in long shoots, consistent with the air-seeding hypothesis, and suggests that a hydraulic advantage enables them to maintain superior growth and productivity under water stress.

Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

Impacts of recent regional changes in climate on natural and human systems are documented across the globe, yet studies explicitly linking these observations to anthropogenic forcing of the climate are scarce. Here we provide a systematic assessment of the role of anthropogenic climate change for the range of impacts of regional climate trends reported in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report. We find that almost two-thirds of the impacts related to atmospheric and ocean temperature can be confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing. In contrast, evidence connecting changes in precipitation and their respective impacts to human influence is still weak. Moreover, anthropogenic climate change has been a major influence for approximately three-quarters of the impacts observed on continental scales. Hence the effects of anthropogenic emissions can now be discerned not only globally, but also at more regional and local scales for a variety of natural and human systems. An assessment of links between anthropogenic climate change and the impacts of recent regional climate trends on human and natural systems shows that many of these impacts can now be attributed to the effects of global warming.

Sex-related climate sensitivity of Araucaria araucana Patagonian forest-steppe ecotone

Dioecious species offers the possibility to discern plant development in relation to sex. However, there is little information of the incidence of sex on tree-growth sensitivity to seasonal variations in climate. In this study we aim to examine the relationship between the climate and tree growth variability from Araucaria araucana inferred from independent male and female tree-ring chronologies derived from old growth forests growing on the xeric environments of NW Patagonia in Argentina. The analysis included 186 standing trees (93 males and 93 females) distributed in five forest stands. After applying a Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMMs), result suggests significant differences between tree-ring width related to both sex and climatic conditions. When considering the relationships between tree growth and climate, sensitivity of tree-ring variability to climate appeared to be sex-dependent. While male trees are more sensitive to land precipitation during part of the current growing period, female trees appears to be more sensitive to air surface temperature during the prior period of growth. At atmospheric circulation scales, male trees are more sensitive to the Southern Annular Mode index during the current period of growth. The reported differences in the sensitivity of the response to climate from both male and female trees can be attributed to different mechanisms in the use of the environmental resources. In relation to recent trends in climate experienced in northern Patagonia, these changes, if continued, may compromise the growth and reproductive fitness of the A. araucana forests.

Biases in RCS tree ring chronologies due to sampling heights of trees

The Regional Curve Standardization (RCS) is one of the most employed standardization methods to remove biological signals in long tree ring chronologies. The approach assumes that an overall age-related growth trend typify all tree ring series to be included in a standardized tree ring chronology. Although several potential problems of the method have been examined, the influence of varying the sampling height along tree stems has not been evaluated. Considering that age-related growth trends may vary with stem height, biases may arise when combining samples from unknown or variable sampling heights, a frequent situation with subfossil logs. In this study we perform a detailed stem analysis of 15 lakeshore black spruce (Picea mariana Mill. B.S.P.) trees in the taiga of eastern Canada to describe how the age-related growth trend varies with stem height and evaluate associated biases in RCS chronologies built from living and subfossil trees. Results show that the age-related growth trends vary markedly and systematically along stems, potentially generating large methodological biases in RCS chronologies, especially near the recent chronology end. These biases may lead to erroneous reconstructions of recent climatic trends and cause false divergence between tree ring and climate series. We have developed a correction procedure that appears efficient in removing these biases from chronologies built with the lakeshore trees and associated subfossil logs.

Weak precipitation, warm winters and springs impact glaciers of south slopes of Mt. Everest (central Himalaya) in the last 2 decades (1994–2013)

Abstract. Studies on recent climate trends from the Himalayan range are limited, and even completely absent at high elevation (&gt; 5000 m a.s.l.). This study specifically explores the southern slopes of Mt. Everest, analyzing the time series of temperature and precipitation reconstructed from seven stations located between 2660 and 5600 m a.s.l. during 1994–2013, complemented with the data from all existing ground weather stations located on both sides of the mountain range (Koshi Basin) over the same period. Overall we find that the main and most significant increase in temperature is concentrated outside of the monsoon period. Above 5000 m a.s.l. the increasing trend in the time series of minimum temperature (+0.072 °C yr−1) is much stronger than of maximum temperature (+0.009 °C yr−1), while the mean temperature increased by +0.044 °C yr−1. Moreover, we note a substantial liquid precipitation weakening (−9.3 mm yr−1) during the monsoon season. The annual rate of decrease in precipitation at higher elevations is similar to the one at lower elevations on the southern side of the Koshi Basin, but the drier conditions of this remote environment make the fractional loss much more consistent (−47% during the monsoon period). Our results challenge the assumptions on whether temperature or precipitation is the main driver of recent glacier mass changes in the region. The main implications are the following: (1) the negative mass balances of glaciers observed in this region can be more ascribed to a decrease in accumulation (snowfall) than to an increase in surface melting; (2) the melting has only been favoured during winter and spring months and close to the glaciers terminus; (3) a decrease in the probability of snowfall (−10%) has made a significant impact only at glacier ablation zone, but the magnitude of this decrease is distinctly lower than the observed decrease in precipitation; (4) the decrease in accumulation could have caused the observed decrease in glacier flow velocity and the current stagnation of glacier termini, which in turn could have produced more melting under the debris glacier cover, leading to the formation of numerous supraglacial and proglacial lakes that have characterized the region in the last decades.

Landscape reorganization under changing climatic forcing: Results from an experimental landscape

AbstractUnderstanding how landscapes respond to climate dynamics in terms of macroscale (average topographic features) and microscale (landform reorganization) is of interest both for deciphering past climates from today's landscapes and for predicting future landscapes in view of recent climatic trends. Although several studies have addressed macro‐scale response, only a few have focused on quantifying smaller‐scale basin reorganization. To that goal, a series of controlled laboratory experiments were conducted where a self‐organized complete drainage network emerged under constant precipitation and uplift dynamics. Once steady state was achieved, the landscape was subjected to a fivefold increase in precipitation (transient state). Throughout the evolution, high‐resolution spatiotemporal topographic data in the form of digital elevation models were collected. The steady state landscape was shown to possess three distinct geomorphic regimes (unchannelized hillslopes, debris‐dominated channels, and fluvially dominated channels). During transient state, landscape reorganization was observed to be driven by hillslopes via accelerated erosion, ridge lowering, channel widening, and reduction of basin relief as opposed to channel base‐level reduction. Quantitative metrics on which these conclusions were based included slope‐area curve, correlation analysis of spatial and temporal elevation increments, and wavelet spectral analysis of the evolving landscapes. Our results highlight that landscape reorganization in response to increased precipitation seems to follow “an arrow of scale”: major elevation change initiates at the hillslope scale driving erosional regime change at intermediate scales and further cascading to geomorphic changes at the channel scale as time evolves.

Climatic controls on groundwater–surface water interactions within the Boreal Plains of Alberta: Field observations and numerical simulations

Hydrologic data were collected over eleven years at a catchment situated in low permeability glacial terrain within the Boreal Plains (Alberta, Canada) to evaluate the hydrologic interactions occurring between landscape units (i.e., shallow pond, extensive peatlands, aspen forested hillslopes). Two-dimensional numerical models were developed using a fully-integrated groundwater–surface water model to evaluate key landscape features that allow these ecosystems to persist within the sub-humid climate. Study results show that the dynamic interactions between the pond and peatlands are driven by precipitation and evapotranspiration. As a result, pond and peatland water levels reflect recent climatic trends. Limited hillslope contributions to the peatlands occur, indicating they are not required within this climatic setting for long-term maintenance. Instead, the peatlands conserve water within the landscape and supply it to adjacent landscape units. By contrast, the pond and the aspen forested hillslopes are dominated by high rates of evapotranspiration, and represent net water sinks within the landscape. Further simulations indicate these hydrologic systems are sensitive to pond and peatland evapotranspiration rates, and the hydraulic conductivity of the underlying glacial till substrate.

A spatiotemporal analysis of Midwest US temperature and precipitation trends during the growing season from 1980 to 2013

Since late 1970s, climate warming has been widely recognized. In the Midwest, farmers cannot rely on the normal calendar anymore, and it has become critically necessary to evaluate the most recent climate trends relative to growing season in order to conduct adaptation efforts for agriculture. Based on the homogenized historical monthly temperature and precipitation records during the period of 1980–2013 from 302 observing stations in the 12 Midwestern US states, we investigate the climate trends on four timescales: monthly, early growing season, late growing season, and the entire growing season. The climate metrics include maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average temperature, diurnal temperature range, and precipitation. Nonparametric Sen's Slope together with the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test is used to estimate the decadal trend and to detect the statistical significance. The results show that growing season average temperature has increased at a rate of 0.15 °C decade−1 over the Midwest United States. Within the growing season, minimum temperature is increasing faster in the early growing season, especially in June, while maximum temperature is increasing faster in the late growing season, especially in September. Spatially, statistically significant (p ≤ 0.05) growing season warming is more focused in the southern part of the region in the early growing season but in the northern part of the region in the late growing season. Over the Midwest, dominant trends in diurnal temperature range are decreasing during most months, with the exception of September. The majority of the locations show increasing trends in growing season precipitation, yet few are statistically significant. Furthermore, precipitation has been increasing in the early growing season but decreasing in the late growing season. This within-season reversing trend in precipitation is found in 8 of 12 Corn Belt states: Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and Wisconsin.

What drives growth of Scots pine in continental Mediterranean climates: Drought, low temperatures or both?

Scots pine forests subjected to continental Mediterranean climates undergo cold winter temperatures and drought stress. Recent climatic trends towards warmer and drier conditions across the Mediterranean Basin might render some of these pine populations more vulnerable to drought-induced growth decline at the Southernmost limit of the species distribution. We investigated how cold winters and dry growing seasons drive the radial growth of Scots pine subject to continental Mediterranean climates by relating growth to climate variables at local (elevational gradient) and regional (latitudinal gradient) scales. Local climate-growth relationships were quantified on different time scales (5-, 10- and 15-days) to evaluate the relative role of elevation and specific site characteristics. A negative water balance driven by high maximum temperatures in June (low-elevation sites) and July (high-elevation sites) was the major constraint on growth, particularly on a 5- to 10-day time scale. Warm nocturnal conditions in January were associated with wider rings at the high-elevation sites. At the regional scale, Scots pine growth mainly responded positively to July precipitation, with a stronger association at lower elevations and higher latitudes. January minimum temperatures showed similar patterns but played a secondary role as a driver of tree growth. The balance between positive and negative effects of summer precipitation and winter temperature on radial growth depends on elevation and latitude, with low-elevation populations being more prone to suffer drought and heat stress; whereas, high-elevation populations may be favoured by warmer winter conditions. This negative impact of summer heat and drought has increased during the past decades. This interaction between climate and site conditions and local adaptations is therefore decisive for the future performance and persistence of Scots pine populations in continental Mediterranean climates. Forecasting changes in the Scots pine range due to climate change should include this site-related information to obtain more realistic predictions, particularly in Mediterranean rear-edge areas.

Arctic Tropospheric Warming: Causes and Linkages to Lower Latitudes

Abstract Arctic temperatures have risen dramatically relative to those of lower latitudes in recent decades, with a common supposition being that sea ice declines are primarily responsible for amplified Arctic tropospheric warming. This conjecture is central to a hypothesis in which Arctic sea ice loss forms the beginning link of a causal chain that includes weaker westerlies in midlatitudes, more persistent and amplified midlatitude waves, and more extreme weather. Through model experimentation, the first step in this chain is examined by quantifying contributions of various physical factors to October–December (OND) mean Arctic tropospheric warming since 1979. The results indicate that the main factors responsible for Arctic tropospheric warming are recent decadal fluctuations and long-term changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs), both located outside the Arctic. Arctic sea ice decline is the largest contributor to near-surface Arctic temperature increases, but it accounts for only about 20% of the magnitude of 1000–500-hPa warming. These findings thus disconfirm the hypothesis that deep tropospheric warming in the Arctic during OND has resulted substantially from sea ice loss. Contributions of the same factors to recent midlatitude climate trends are then examined. It is found that pronounced circulation changes over the North Atlantic and North Pacific result mainly from recent decadal ocean fluctuations and internal atmospheric variability, while the effects of sea ice declines are very small. Therefore, a hypothesized causal chain of hemisphere-wide connections originating from Arctic sea ice loss is not supported.

Impacts of precipitation and temperature on crop yields in the Pampas

Understanding regional impacts of recent climate trends can help anticipate how further climate change will affect agricultural productivity. We here used panel models to estimate the contribution of growing season precipitation (P), average temperature (T) and diurnal temperature range (DTR) on wheat, maize and soy yield and yield trends between 1971 and 2012 from 33 counties of the Argentine Pampas. A parallel analysis was conducted on a per county basis by adjusting a linear model to the first difference (i.e., subtracting from each value the previous year value) in yield and first difference in weather variables to estimate crop sensitivity to interannual changes in P, T, and DTR. Our results show a relatively small but significant negative impact of climate trends on yield which is consistent with the estimated crop and county specific sensitivity of yield to interannual changes in P, T and DTR and their temporal trends. Median yield loss from climate trends for the 1971−2012 period amounted to 5.4 % of average yields for maize, 5.1 % for wheat, and 2.6 % for soy. Crop yield gains for this time period could have been 15–20 % higher if climate remained without directional changes in the Pampas. On average, crop yield responded more to trends in T and DTR than in P. Translated into economic terms the observed reductions in maize, wheat, and soy yields due to climate trends in the Pampas would equal $1.1 B using 2013 producer prices. These results add to the increasing evidence that climate trends are slowing yield increase.

Climate trends and crop production in China at county scale, 1980 to 2008

Our understanding on the impact of climate change on agricultural production, as well as the potential adaption options, can be accelerated by shedding insights on the historical experiences in the past few decades. Here, we used improved datasets of climate, crop phenology, and crop yields to investigate climate–crop yield relationships, recent trends in seasonal climate and their impact on yields of major crops (i.e., rice, wheat, maize, and soybean) by county throughout China during the period of 1980–2008. The temporal and spatial patterns of climate trends and the impact on major crop yields were presented. We found crop yields declined by up to 5–10 % or more for each 1 °C increase in mean temperature over crop growing period at some regions, and trends in mean temperature during the period of 1980–2008 reduced crop yields by up to 2.5–5.0 % or more at some regions. For the whole country, planting area-weighted average of yield change due to trends in mean temperature and precipitation together was about 1.16, −0.31, −0.40, and 0.11 % over the whole period for rice, wheat, maize, and soybean, respectively. Climate trends were large enough at some regions to offset a notable portion of the increases in average yields that arose from technology and other factors. The particular crops and regions that have been most affected and should be the priorities to adapt are maize and wheat in the arid and semi-arid areas of northern and northeastern China, where climate warming-induced droughts are one of major challenges.

Degradation of buried ice and permafrost in the Veleta cirque (Sierra Nevada, Spain) from 2006 to 2013 as a response to recent climate trends

Abstract. The Veleta cirque is located at the foot of the Veleta peak, one of the highest summits of the Sierra Nevada National Park (southern Spain). This cirque was the source of a glacier valley during the Quaternary cold periods. During the Little Ice Age it sheltered a small glacier, the most southerly in Europe, about which we have possessed written records since the 17th century. This glacier still had ice residues until the mid-20th century. This ice is no longer visible, but a residue persists along with discontinuous permafrost trapped under strata of rock blocks that make up an incipient rock glacier. From 2006 to 2013, this rock glacier was monitored by measurement of the temperature of the active layer, the degree of snow cover on the ground, movements of the body of the rock glacier and geophysical prospection inside it. The results show that the relict ice and trapped permafrost have been steadily declining. The processes that explain this degradation occur in chain, starting from the external radiation that affects the ground in summer, which is when the temperatures are higher. In effect, when this radiation steadily melts the snow on the ground, the thermal expansive wave advances into the heart of the active layer, reaching the ceiling of the frozen mass, which it then degrades and melts. In this entire linked process, the circulation of meltwaters fulfils a highly significant function, as they act as heat transmitters. The complementary nature of these processes explains the subsidence and continuous changes in the entire clastic pack and the melting of the frozen ceiling on which it rests. This happens in summer in just a few weeks. All these events, in particular the geomorphological ones, take place on the Sierra Nevada peaks within certain climate conditions that are at present unfavourable to the maintenance of snow on the ground in summer. These conditions could be related to recent variations in the climate, starting in the mid-19th century and most markedly since the second half of the 20th century. The work and results highlight the climate sensitivity of the peaks of the Sierra Nevada to the effect of climate change and its impact on the dynamics of ecosystems, which is a benchmark for evaluating the current evolution of landscapes of Mediterranean high mountains.

Climatic warming above the Arctic Circle: are there trends in timing and length of the thermal growing season in Murmansk Region (Russia) between 1951 and 2012?

Anomalies in the timing of the thermal growing season have become obvious in the NE part of Fennoscandia since 2000. They are in accordance with climatic changes reported for Europe and Fennoscandia. The actual length of the growing season reached 120 days on average, onset on 30 May and ending on 27 September (1981-2010). Shifts in the timing of the growing season and its mean prolongation by 18.5 days/62a are demonstrated for Murmansk Region (1951-2012). In this period, the onset of the growing season advanced by 7.1 days/62a, while the end was extended by 11.4 days/62a. The delay in the end of the growing season is similar to the entire Fennoscandian pattern but it has not been detected in the rest of Europe. The regional pattern of climatic regimes in Murmansk Region remained stable in comparison with earlier climatic maps (1971). However, the actual shifts in the timing of the growing season were more pronounced in colder (oceanic and mountainous) parts. Recent climatic trends could influence the retreat of the tundra zone and changes in the forest line. Losses of tundra biodiversity and enrichment of the northern taiga by southern species could be expected from present climatic trends.

Recent climatic trends in the tropical Atlantic

A homogeneous monthly data set of sea surface temperature (SST) and pseudo wind stress based on in situ observations is used to investigate the climatic trends over the tropical Atlantic during the last five decades (1964–2012). After a decrease of SST by about 1 °C during 1964–1975, most apparent in the northern tropical region, the entire tropical basin warmed up. That warming was the most substantial (>1 °C) in the eastern tropical ocean and in the longitudinal band of the intertropical convergence zone. Surprisingly, the trade wind system also strengthened over the peirod 1964–2012. Complementary information extracted from other observational data sources confirms the simultaneity of SST warming and the strengthening of the surface winds. Examining data sets of surface heat flux during the last few decades for the same region, we find that the SST warming was not a consequence of atmospheric heat flux forcing. Conversely, we suggest that long-term SST warming drives changes in atmosphere parameters at the sea surface, most notably an increase in latent heat flux, and that an acceleration of the hydrological cycle induces a strengthening of the trade winds and an acceleration of the Hadley circulation. These trends are also accompanied by rising sea levels and upper ocean heat content over similar multi-decadal time scales in the tropical Atlantic. Though more work is needed to fully understand these long term trends, especially what happens from the mid-1970’s, it is likely that changes in ocean circulation involving some combination of the Atlantic meridional overtuning circulation and the subtropical cells are required to explain the observations.