Recent Climate Trends Research Articles

Impacts of Recent Climate Trends and Human Activity on the Land Cover Change of the Abbay River Basin in Ethiopia

The Abbay River Basin, which originates in Ethiopia, is a major tributary and main source of the Nile River Basin. Land cover and vegetation in the Abbay River Basin is highly susceptible to climate change. This study was conducted to investigate the trends of climate change for a period of thirty-six years (1980–2016) within selected stations of the basin by using the innovative trend analysis method, Mann–Kendall test, and Sen’s slope estimator test to investigate the mean annual precipitation and temperature variables. Changes in land cover and vegetation in the Abbay River Basin were studied for a period of thirteen years (2001–2013) by using remote sensing, GIS analysis, land cover classification, and vegetation detection methods to assess the land cover and vegetation in the basin. In addition, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), and Transformation Matrix were employed to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of land cover and vegetation impacted by changes in climate. The result reflects that the trend of average annual temperature was remarkably increased (Φ = 0.12, Z = 0.75) in the 36-year period, and the temperature was increased by 0.5°C, although precipitation had slightly decreased during the same period. In the thirteen years’ period, forest land and water resource decreased by 3429.62 km2 and 81.45 km2, respectively. In contrast, an increment was observed in grassland (2779.33 km2), cultivated land (535.34 km2), bare land (43.08 km2), urban land (0.65 km2), and wetland (152.66 km2) in the same period. In the study, it was also observed a decrease of an NDVI value by 0.1 was observed in 2013 in the southern part of the basin. The findings of the present study illustrate a significant change in eco-hydrological conditions in the ARB with an adverse impact on the environment. Hydroclimatic changes caused the increase in temperature and decreasing trend in precipitation which significantly impacted the land cover and vegetation in the basin. The changes in land cover were mostly caused by global and local climate influence which mainly affects the hydroclimate and eco-hydrology systems of the basin. The result is consistent with that of the previous studies conducted elsewhere. The findings of this paper could help researchers to understand the eco-hydrological condition of the study basin and become a foundation for further studies.

A 2000 year-long proxy and observational reconstruction of Central Asian climate

Central Asia (CA) is one of the most arid places on Earth and climate change threatens to disrupt the natural hydrologic systems that store its limited annual wet-season precipitation in glaciers and release it during the dry season. Warm/Wet and Cold/Dry periods recorded over the last 2000 years using multiple paleoclimate proxy records reflect a local hydrocycle dominated by the Westerlies and moisture recycling within the Aral Sea catchment.The best tool for assessing recent climate trends is modern reanalysis modeling, ground-truthed by weather station data. Using the best-fit reanalysis, we find warming and drying trends have dominated the region over the last 115 years. Continued warming and drying in glacierized eastern CA during the critical spring season when glaciers typically increase in mass increase the likelihood that human infrastructure will be needed to impound wet-season precipitation.

Characterizing satellite‐derived soil moisture and its relationship with rainfall over India

AbstractUnderstanding the spatial and temporal variations of soil moisture is important since the feedback between soil moisture and precipitation is a key control of the climate. This is also important as soil moisture data is a key input in regional climate models. The inter‐annual and inter‐decadal variability of soil moisture has been investigated here using the European Space Agency's Climate Change Initiative active and passive combined soil moisture product over different climate regimes of India. The observed soil moisture and rainfall are positively correlated and their relationship in this study suggests that both positive and negative feedback occur. The analysis showed an increasing soil moisture trend with a significant increase in the monsoon and autumn seasons for the past two decades over central India, where the frequency of extreme precipitation increased in the same period. An overall increase in soil moisture over the western arid region is also significant. A decreasing trend in soil moisture prevailed throughout the monsoon season over eastern India, where monsoon depressions make landfall, signalling the recent climate trends over the Indian subcontinent.

Functional diversity is a passenger but not driver of drought‐related plant diversity losses in annual grasslands

Abstract Effects of climate change on plant community functional diversity are of interest since experiments have found functional diversity to predict ecosystem function. Functional diversity has been hypothesized to confer resilience to plant communities (as a “driver” of community change), but in unmanipulated natural communities, it might alternatively (or additionally) act as a “passenger” by responding to changes in plant diversity caused by extrinsic factors such as climate. We examined trends in plant functional diversity in annual grasslands in Northern California over a 19‐year period, during which a trend towards drier winters had previously been associated with the losses of drought‐intolerant species. We tested whether functional diversity decreased over the period of the study (acting as a passenger), and also whether initial site functional diversity influenced the degree of community change over the study period (acting as a driver). Initial community functional diversity was not related to species richness loss or community variability. We found that functional diversity declined as plant species richness and community mean specific leaf area declined over the course of the study, and all of these trends were associated with declining precipitation, indicating that functional diversity acted as a passenger of community change. Synthesis. This study is among the first to demonstrate that recent climatic trends may drive loss of functional diversity. Our findings highlight that functional diversity does not necessarily confer community resilience when its variation is shaped by the environment rather than by experimental treatments.

Recent climate trends over Greece

Temperature and humidity play a key role in climate change assessment. This study focuses on the analysis of surface and upper-air temperature and humidity trends for a domain centered over the Greek region in the Eastern Mediterranean. The main purpose of this work is to investigate whether possible changes in the climate of the greater Greek region exist over the recent years. ERA-Interim reanalysis, surface and radiosonde observational data of air temperature, specific and relative humidity are used for a 39-year period (1979–2017). Through the spatial distribution of their trends, at different atmospheric pressure levels and seasons, it is possible to detect statistically significant spatial and temporal changes in the troposphere and stratosphere above the examined domain. Statistically significant warming trends at the 99% level are found at the surface over land and at the 95% level over sea during spring and summer for Greece; less pronounced and more sparsely distributed trends are identified during autumn and winter. Additionally, positive trends prevail throughout the entire extent of the troposphere, more pronounced during summer, whereas the stratosphere is characterized by negative trends. Trends derived from the reanalysis and observational data exhibit high degree of correlation both at surface and at upper atmospheric levels. In accordance, specific humidity has generally increased in the lower troposphere. Relative humidity time series demonstrate trends, which vary seasonally and geographically, due to its relationship with specific humidity and temperature.

Implications of a Varying Observational Network for Accurately Estimating Recent Climate Trends

AbstractGridded data sets that are widely used to characterize recent historical trends in regional and global climate are derived from a temporally varying and spatially inhomogeneous observational network. Lin and Huybers (2018, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079709) demonstrate that such network variations underlying two widely used precipitation data sets have biased trends in mean and extreme rainfall over India. I highlight similar concerns raised by studies over other regions and discuss the implications for climate change research. Evaluating uncertainties arising from such nonclimatic factors requires access to underlying station data that is currently unavailable for several vulnerable regions but is critical for accurately characterizing recent climate change and evaluating climate models.

Recent intensification of the seasonal rainfall cycle in equatorial Africa revealed by farmer perceptions, satellite-based estimates, and ground-based station measurements

Smallholder farmers and livestock keepers in sub-Saharan Africa are on the frontlines of climate variability and change. Yet, in many regions, a paucity of weather and climate data has prevented rigorous assessment of recent climate trends and their causes, thereby limiting the effectiveness of forecasts and other services for climate adaptation. In rainfed systems, farmer perceptions of changing rainfall and weather patterns are important precursors for annual cropping decisions. Here, we propose that combining such farmer perceptions of trends in seasonal rainfall with satellite-based rainfall estimates and climate station data can reduce uncertainties regarding regional climatic trends. In western Uganda, a rural and climatically complex transition zone between eastern and central equatorial Africa, data from 980 smallholder households suggest distinct changes in seasonal bimodal rainfall over recent decades, specifically wetter rainy seasons and drier dry seasons. Data from three satellite-based rainfall products beginning in 1983 largely corroborate respondent perceptions over the last 10–20 years, particularly in the southernmost sites near Queen Elizabeth National Park. In addition, combining all three information sources suggests an increasing trend in annual rainfall, most prominently in the north near Murchison Falls National Park over the past two decades; this runs counter to recent research asserting the presence of a drying trend in the region. Our study is unique in evaluating and cross-validating these multiple data sources to identify climatic change affecting people in a poorly understood region, while providing insights into regional-scale climate controls.

Analysis and impact of recent climate trends on grape composition in north-east Italy

Climate is the most relevant factor influencing the ripening of high quality grapes to produce a given wine style. This notion should be taken into account, given the increase of extreme weather events (EWE) related to climate change. Under this evolving climate scenario, North-East Italian wine regions have seen a recent expansion, potentially disregarding optimal planting choices. The use of marginal land, indeed, could lead to the establishment of vineyards in areas where it is not possible to take advantage of the best row orientation, slope and aspect. Under these conditions, the consequences of some EWE may be more severe. The objective of this study is to verify whether planting options in combination with climate conditions, may affect yield and fruit quality. An area localised in Northern Italy was analysed for row orientation and slope, taking advantage of QGIS tools. The area was also examined for climate conditions, using weather conditions and climate indices. Such variables were combined with 10-year yield and must composition of four varieties (Chardonnay, Pinot Gris, Merlot and Glera) by using linear regression. The paper reports the most significant relationships between climatic conditions and grapevine composition. The results showed high positive correlation between sugar concentration and the number of frost days during the year in three varieties. The sugar content was positively correlated with the relative humidity in June in three varieties and negatively correlated with the number of days with a temperature >25°C during the month of June in two varieties. The content of tartaric acid showed high correlations with thermal indices of May in all varieties.

Debris-flow functioning and their contribution to sedimentary budgets: the Peynin subcatchment of the Guil River (Upper Queyras, Southern French Alps)

The Peynin catchment (15 km2) is prone to catastrophic floods (June 1957 – Recurrence Interval R.I.>100 yr), June 2000 (R.I.-30 yr) with serious damages to infrastructure and buildings located at the outlet. In this paper, PIT tags tracers and Vensim modelling software are used to better assess the sediment delivery unsteadiness, and more specifically to evaluate the respective role of geomorphological processes on sediment supply during flood event. For the last 20 years, our results highlight a significant variability in sediment delivery from a tributary to another one. According to our studies, we suppose that two torrential tributaries of the Peynin river, the Peyronnelle and Three Arbres subcatchments (<2 km2, representing <15% of the Peynin catchment area) are responsible of 80% of the sediments observed at the outlet of the catchment. Several processes take a part of these sediment transfers, but the efficiency of the sediment cascade in this catchment can be explained by a strong connectivity between sediment erosion area and the main channel of the catchment. Debris and torrential flows triggered during high intensity meteorological event are actually effectively coupled in space and time and guarantee an important sediment supply able to reload the downstream part of the sediment cascade. Recent climate trends, marked by extremes, suggest consequently more damaging events to come, in a context of increasing vulnerable assets

Recent climate trends for the Volta Basin in West Africa

WeatherVolume 74, Issue S1 p. S13-S22 Research Article Recent climate trends for the Volta Basin in West Africa Deborah Darko, Corresponding Author Deborah Darko deborah.ofori@gmail.com orcid.org/0000-0002-3378-5129 Civil Engineering Department, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, University Post Office, Kumasi, Ghana Water Research Institute, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Accra, GhanaCorrespondence to: D. Darkodeborah.ofori@gmail.comSearch for more papers by this authorKwaku A. Adjei, Kwaku A. Adjei Civil Engineering Department, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, University Post Office, Kumasi, GhanaSearch for more papers by this authorSamuel N. Odai, Samuel N. Odai Civil Engineering Department, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, University Post Office, Kumasi, GhanaSearch for more papers by this authorEmmanuel Obuobie, Emmanuel Obuobie Water Research Institute, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Accra, GhanaSearch for more papers by this authorRuby Asmah, Ruby Asmah Water Research Institute, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Accra, GhanaSearch for more papers by this authorDennis Trolle, Dennis Trolle Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Silkeborg, DenmarkSearch for more papers by this author Deborah Darko, Corresponding Author Deborah Darko deborah.ofori@gmail.com orcid.org/0000-0002-3378-5129 Civil Engineering Department, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, University Post Office, Kumasi, Ghana Water Research Institute, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Accra, GhanaCorrespondence to: D. Darkodeborah.ofori@gmail.comSearch for more papers by this authorKwaku A. Adjei, Kwaku A. Adjei Civil Engineering Department, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, University Post Office, Kumasi, GhanaSearch for more papers by this authorSamuel N. Odai, Samuel N. Odai Civil Engineering Department, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, University Post Office, Kumasi, GhanaSearch for more papers by this authorEmmanuel Obuobie, Emmanuel Obuobie Water Research Institute, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Accra, GhanaSearch for more papers by this authorRuby Asmah, Ruby Asmah Water Research Institute, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Accra, GhanaSearch for more papers by this authorDennis Trolle, Dennis Trolle Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Silkeborg, DenmarkSearch for more papers by this author First published: 12 December 2018 https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3303Citations: 3Read the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditWechat Citing Literature Volume74, IssueS1December 2019Pages S13-S22 RelatedInformation

Challenges for growth of beech and co-occurring conifers in a changing climate context

Given recent climatic trends, it is crucial to understand the plasticity and adaptiveness of forest trees in order to evaluate their current and future responses to changing climatic conditions. We investigated inter- and intra-annual xylem growth and its relation to weather factors in European beech (Fagus sylvatica) and a co-occurring conifer, either Norway spruce (Picea abies) or Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), at five sites with different elevations and climatic conditions, in Spain, Slovenia and the Czech Republic. The selected sites were located in central and marginal parts across the distribution range of the investigated species. The results showed that climate-growth relationships vary between different species at the same site and within the same species at different sites, indicating diverse survival strategies among the observed species but also high plastic capacity within the same species. Moreover, xylogenesis analysis revealed the capacity of trees to adapt the beginning and cessation of wood formation depending on conditions. In case of beech, shortening growth duration in dryer and warmer environments and the opposite in the case of conifers, with which the growing period was extended in such conditions. Consequently, the plasticity capacity of beech was limited due to short growth duration, while conifers (especially pine) proved to be able to compensate climatic constrictions by growing over a longer period and becoming more adapted to survival in drought-prone environments.

In Memoriam: Keith R Briffa, 1952–2017

Keith R Briffa was one of the most influential palaeoclimatologists of the last 30 years. His primary research interests lay in Late-Holocene climate change with a geographical emphasis on northern Eurasia. His greatest impact was in the field of dendroclimatology, a field that he helped to shape. His contributions have been seminal to the development of sound methods for tree-ring analysis and in their proper application to allow the interpretation of climate variability from tree rings. This led to the development of many important records that allow us to understand natural climate variability on timescales from years to millennia and to set recent climatic trends in their historical context.

Characterizing permafrost active layer dynamics and sensitivity to landscape spatial heterogeneity in Alaska.

An important feature of the Arctic is large spatial heterogeneity in active layer conditions, which is generally poorly represented by global models and can lead to large uncertainties in predicting regional ecosystem responses and climate feedbacks. In this study, we developed a spatially integrated modelling and analysis framework combining field observations, local scale (~ 50 m resolution) active layer thickness (ALT) and soil moisture maps derived from airborne low frequency (L+P-band) radar measurements, and global satellite environmental observations to investigate the ALT sensitivity to recent climate trends and landscape heterogeneity in Alaska. Modelled ALT results show good correspondence with in situ measurements in higher permafrost probability (PP ≥ 70%) areas (n = 33, R = 0.60, mean bias = 1.58 cm, RMSE = 20.32 cm), but with larger uncertainty in sporadic and discontinuous permafrost areas. The model results also reveal widespread ALT deepening since 2001, with smaller ALT increases in northern Alaska (mean trend = 0.32 ± 1.18 cm yr-1) and much larger increases (> 3 cm yr-1) across interior and southern Alaska. The positive ALT trend coincides with regional warming and a longer snow-free season (R = 0.60 ± 0.32). A spatially integrated analysis of the radar retrievals and model sensitivity simulations demonstrated that uncertainty in the spatial and vertical distribution of soil organic carbon (SOC) was the largest factor affecting modeled ALT accuracy, while soil moisture played a secondary role. Potential improvements in characterizing SOC heterogeneity, including better spatial sampling of soil conditions and advances in remote sensing of SOC and soil moisture, will enable more accurate predictions of active layer conditions and refinement of the modelling framework across a larger domain.

Rice yield in response to climate trends and drought index in the Mun River Basin, Thailand

Rice yields in Thailand are among the lowest in Asia. In northeast Thailand where about 90% of rice cultivation is rain-fed, climate variability and change affect rice yields. Understanding climate characteristics and their impacts on the rice yield is important for establishing proper adaptation and mitigation measures to enhance productivity. In this paper, we investigate climatic conditions of the past 30years (1984–2013) and assess the impacts of the recent climate trends on rice yields in the Mun River Basin in northeast Thailand. We also analyze the relationship between rice yield and a drought indicator (Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI), and the impact of SPEI trends on the yield. Our results indicate that the total yield losses due to past climate trends are rather low, in the range of <50kg/ha per decade (3% of actual average yields). In general, increasing trends in minimum and maximum temperatures lead to modest yield losses. In contrast, precipitation and SPEI-1, i.e. SPEI based on one monthly data, show positive correlations with yields in all months, except in the wettest month (September). If increasing trends of temperatures during the growing season persist, a likely climate change scenario, there is high possibility that the yield losses will become more serious in future. In this paper, we show that the drought index SPEI-1 detects soil moisture deficiency and crop stress in rice better than precipitation or precipitation based indicators. Further, our results emphasize the importance of spatial and temporal resolutions in detecting climate trends and impacts on yields.

Calcite raft geochemistry as a hydrological proxy for Holocene aquifer conditions in Hoyo Negro and Ich Balam (Sac Actun Cave System), Quintana Roo, Mexico

Two cores from calcite rafts deposits located in Cenote Ich Balam and Hoyo Negro were dated and analyzed for 87Sr/86Sr, δ18O, δ13C, Sr/Ca and Cl/Ca. The geochemical records show changing aquifer salinity spanning the last ∼ 8.5 cal kyrs BP and interrelationships with Holocene climate trends (wet and dry periods). During the wet mid-Holocene, the salinity of the meteoric Water Mass (WM; at 7.8–8.3 cal kyrs BP) was relatively high at 1.5–2.7 ppt and then became less saline (1.0–1.5 ppt) during the last ∼ 7000 yrs as climate became progressively drier. High salinity of the meteoric WM during the wet mid-Holocene is attributed to increased turbulent mixing between the meteoric and underlying marine WM. Increased precipitation, in terms of amount, frequency, and intensity (e.g. hurricanes) causes higher flow of meteoric water towards the coast and mixing at the halocline, a phenomenon recorded with recent instrumental monitoring of the aquifer. Conversely, during dry periods reduced precipitation and flow in the meteoric WM would result in lower salinity. Karst properties and Holocene sea-level rise also seem to have an effect on the aquifer. When the regionally extensive network of shallow cave passages (∼ 10–12 m water depth) are flooded at ∼ 8000 cal yrs BP, there is a rapid shift in salinity. This study demonstrates that calcite raft deposits can be used as paleo-environmental recorders documenting the effects of sea level and climate change on aquifer condition.

Multi-century tree-ring precipitation record reveals increasing frequency of extreme dry events in the upper Blue Nile River catchment.

Climate-related environmental and humanitarian crisis are important challenges in the Great Horn of Africa (GHA). In the absence of long-term past climate records in the region, tree-rings are valuable climate proxies, reflecting past climate variations and complementing climate records prior to the instrumental era. We established annually resolved multi-century tree-ring chronology from Juniperus procera trees in northern Ethiopia, the longest series yet for the GHA. The chronology correlates significantly with wet-season (r=.64, p<.01) and annual (r=.68, p<.01) regional rainfall. Reconstructed rainfall since A.D. 1811 revealed significant interannual variations between 2.2 and 3.8 year periodicity, with significant decadal and multidecadal variations during 1855-1900 and 1960-1990. The duration of negative and positive rainfall anomalies varied between 1-7years and 1-8years. Approximately 78.4% (95%) of reconstructed dry (extreme dry) and 85.4% (95%) of wet (extreme wet) events lasted for 1 year only and corresponded to historical records of famine and flooding, suggesting that future climate change studies should be both trend and extreme event focused. The average return periods for dry (extreme dry) and wet (extreme wet) events were 4.1 (8.8) years and 4.1 (9.5) years. Extreme-dry conditions during the 19th century were concurrent with drought episodes in equatorial eastern Africa that occurred at the end of the Little Ice Age. El Niño and La Niña events matched with 38.5% and 50% of extreme-dry and extreme-wet events. Equivalent matches for positive and negative Indian Ocean Dipole events were weaker, reaching 23.1 and 25%, respectively. Spatial correlations revealed that reconstructed rainfall represents wet-season rainfall variations over northern Ethiopia and large parts of the Sahel belt. The data presented are useful for backcasting climate and hydrological models and for developing regional strategic plans to manage scarce and contested water resources. Historical perspectives on long-term regional rainfall variability improve the interpretation of recent climate trends.

Radionuclides and soil properties as indicators of glacier retreat in a recently deglaciated permafrost environment of the Maritime Antarctica

Many ice-free environments in Maritime Antarctica are undergoing rapid and substantial environmental changes in response to recent climate trends. This is the case of Elephant Point (Livingston Island, South Shetland Islands, SSI), where the glacier retreat recorded during the last six decades exposed 17% of this small peninsula, namely a moraine extending from the western to the eastern coastlines and a relatively flat proglacial surface. In the southern margin of the peninsula, a sequence of Holocene raised beaches and several bedrock plateaus are also distributed. A main issue in this environment is the role of glacier retreat and permafrost controlling the recently formed soils. To this purpose, a total of 10 sites were sampled along a transect crossing raised beaches and moraine materials following the direction of glacier retreat. At the selected sites surface samples were collected until 12cm depth and sectioned at 3cm depth intervals to analyse main properties, grain size, pH, electrical conductivity and carbonates. Besides, elemental composition and fallout (FRNs) and environmental radionuclides (ERNs) were analysed. To assess if profile characteristics within the active layer are affected by glacier retreat variations of organic carbon and carbon fractions and 137Cs contents were examined. The presence of organic carbon (range: 0.13–3.19%), and 137Cs (range: bdl–10.1Bqkg−1) was only found at the raised beaches. The surface samples had abundant coarse fractions in rich sandy matrix with increasing acidic pH towards the coast. Significant differences were found in the elemental composition and the radionuclides between the moraine and raised beaches. Soil forming processes are related to the time of exposure of the landforms after glacier retreat. The results obtained confirm the potential for using geomorphological, edaphic and geochemical data to assess the influence of different stages of glacier retreat in recent soils and sediments.

Tree growth is more sensitive than species distributions to recent changes in climate and acidic deposition in the northeastern United States

Summary Tree‐growth responses to environmental change could provide early detection of shifts in forest composition and help facilitate ecosystem management and conservation. We studied forest tree responses to recent trends in climate and acidic deposition using analyses of tree rings and long‐term climate, deposition and forest plot data along an elevational climatic gradient in the northeastern United States. We analysed how (i) individual growth of dominant species (Picea rubens, Abies balsamea) and (ii) spatial distributions of all species, changed with elevation over time due to changing environment. We observed a mean 220 m upslope shift of temperature envelopes since the 1960s, consistent with regional climate warming, but found no evidence of synchronous upslope shifts in species abundance. Species' ranges were stable although some leaned upslope or downslope, suggesting species‐specific migration lags or controls on species' ranges. Compared to species distributions, the growth of dominant species was more responsive to environmental change. Although the basal area of P. rubens declined within its range since the 1960s, its growth has increased recently with increasing precipitation pH and to a lesser extent with warming climate. Abies balsamea has gradually increased in both basal area and density since the 1960s, with its growth responding to precipitation pH but not climate. Historically, P. rubens grew better at lower and A. balsamea at higher elevations, but these elevation effects appeared to be mediated primarily by moisture, and have disappeared over time. Synthesis and applications. Mean tree‐growth responses to changing climate (temperature, moisture) and precipitation chemistry were more consistent and more clearly detectable than shifts in tree species' ranges, suggesting that monitoring tree growth across climatically controlled species' ranges (e.g. along elevational or latitudinal gradients) may provide a powerful tool for early detection of potential future changes in forest composition in a changing environment.

Climate-driven changes in energy and mass inputs systematically alter nutrient concentration and stoichiometry in deep and shallow regions of Lake Champlain

Concentrations of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in lakes may be differentially impacted by climate-driven changes in nutrient loading and by direct impacts of temperature and wind speed on internal nutrient cycling. Such changes may result in systematic shifts in lake N:P under future climate warming. We used 21 years of monitoring data to compare long-term and intra-annual trends in total N (TN), total P (TP) and TN:TP at 15 sites in Lake Champlain to concurrent measurements of watershed nutrient inputs and meteorological drivers. TN:TP declined sharply lake-wide, particularly in the past decade, yet the drivers of this trend varied based on site depth. In deep sites, declines were driven by changes in watershed loading of dissolved P and N and (in some cases) by decreases in hypolimnetic dissolved oxygen. In shallow sites, declines in TN:TP were primarily driven by long-term increases in temperature and decreases in wind speed, and exhibited systematic seasonal variability in TN:TP due to the timing of sediment P loading, N removal processes, and external nutrient inputs. We developed a conceptual model to explain the observed trends, and suggest that while climate drivers have affected nutrient dynamics in shallow and deep sites differently, both deep and shallow sites are likely to experience further declines in N:P and increases in cyanobacteria dominance if recent climate trends continue.

Atlantic effects on recent decadal trends in global monsoon

Natural climate variability contributes to recent decadal climate trends. Specifically the trends during the satellite era since 1979 include Atlantic and Indian Ocean warming and Pacific cooling associated with phase shifts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and enhanced global monsoon (GM) circulation and rainfall especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Here we evaluate effects of the oceanic changes on the global and regional monsoon trends by partial ocean temperature restoring experiments in a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model. Via trans-basin atmosphere–ocean teleconnections, the Atlantic warming drives a global pattern of sea surface temperature change that resembles observations, giving rise to the enhanced GM. The tropical Atlantic warming and the resultant Indian Ocean warming favor subtropical deep-tropospheric warming in both hemispheres, resulting in the enhanced monsoon circulations and precipitation over North America, South America and North Africa. The extratropical North Atlantic warming makes an additional contribution to the monsoon enhancement via Eurasian continent warming and resultant land–sea thermal gradient over Asia. The results of this study suggest that the Atlantic multidecadal variability can explain a substantial part of global climate variability including the recent decadal trends of GM.