Recent Fertility Research Articles

Costa Rica Leads Latin America's Fertility Decline Partly Because of National Program's Rural Impact

Recent fertility declines in Costa Rica are among the most rapid in the world due in large part to the extent of literacy early availability of contraception and the effectiveness of the government-sponsored family planning program. 2 stages in the fertility decline can be established: the period from 1960 to 1967 when fertility reduction is attributed to factors other than family planning services; and the period from 1968 until the present coinciding with establishment of the family planning program when it may be assumed that declining fertility was the net result of program as well as other factors. In order to determine program effects research demographer Luis Rosero established percentages of births averted which are due to family planning program efforts: 1) 1963-1967 with all births averted due to other factors 2) 1968-1972 when program-provided protection accounted for 17% of all averted births and 3) 1973-1977 when almost 40% of all births averted resulted from program services. The 1977 annual report of the family planning program details numbers of family planning clinics acceptors and new acceptors methods of contraception chosen and communication programs. Mentioned also is the controversy over the IUD as an abortifacient and accusations over alleged mass sterilization campaigns.

A Component Analysis of Recent Fertility Decline in Singapore

To aid in achieving demographic goals, since 1968 the government of Singapore has passed a series of laws designed to limit family size. Policies were instituted in 1968 to discourage couples from having more than three children; policies introduced in 1973 discouraged having more than two. Trends in fertility rates and in the numbers of abortions and sterilizations in recent years are consistent with the intent of these social policies. Decline in third and subsequent births was the most important factor in fertility decline after 1972, and the numbers of abortions and sterilizations undergone by higher parity women have increased substantially sin"e 1970. Although other factors have affected fertility in Singapore, the data suggest that the disincentives have played a role in continued fertility decline in recent years.

Recent Fertility Trends in Bangladesh: Speculation on the Role of Biological Factors and Socioeconomic Change.

Recent Fertility Trends in Bangladesh: Speculation on the Role of Biological Factors and Socioeconomic Change.

Comments on Daniel A. Seiver's `Recent Fertility in Mexico: Measurement and Interpretation.'

Comments on Daniel A. Seiver's `Recent Fertility in Mexico: Measurement and Interpretation.'

The relation of economic class and fertility: An analysis of some Indonesian data

Summary Many recent fertility studies in developing societies put forward the hypothesis of a negative relation between economic class and fertility. Data showing a positive relationship are frequently dismissed a priori as resulting from the reporting errors of illiterate women. This study draws on data from Indonesia's 1971 Census, a 1973 sample survey of fertility and mortality, and an intensive community study in Java, to argue that an observed positive relation between class and fertility is real, and is related to differences in patterns of marital disruption, postpartum abstinence, and fecundity. The positive relation may be reversed in the future as changes in these patterns, and the impact of the national family planning programme, affect the family structure of each class differently. Had the positive relation in this context been attributed offhand to reporting errors, these important socio-economic changes would have been misunderstood, and possibly ignored.

Recent Fertility in Mexico: Measurement and Interpretation

Recent Fertility in Mexico: Measurement and Interpretation

Emigration and fertility decline: The case of Barbados

This paper examines the role of emigration in the recent fertility declines which have occurred on the island of Barbados. Barbados with a history of over two centuries of out-migration has experienced in the period 1951-1970 very significant migration loss. In the period 1960-1970 and up to the present fertility has been declining. An important question is what part has this net migration loss of 32,600 had on the reduction of the crude birth rate from 33.6 in 1960 or from 31.5 in 1956 to 20.5 in 1970? Using officially published net migration loss figures and supplementing them with data on Barbadians living overseas, we calculated the crude birth rates which would have occurred had there been no migration loss. We also calculated the numbers of births to be expected if certain age-specific fertility rates were maintained and compared these with the births to residents plus the calculated births to Barbadians overseas. We conclude that in both cases emigration is a very significant contributor to the fertility declines which have occurred and are still underway.

Maori fertility in a period of transition.

SummaryAn analysis of Maori fertility shows that a transition from a high to a low level has begun. The crude birth rate has declined by nearly 28% during the period 1961–72; only a small part of this decline can be attributed to changes in the age–sex and marital status composition.A substantial decline in the fertility of older women has been observed and there are indications of the beginning of a major decline in the fertility of younger women. Since women aged 30–49 still account for 30% of total fertility there is enough potential for a further fertility decline in the later child-bearing years.Age patterns of fertility decline suggest that inter-marriage between Pakehas and Maoris is not a prime cause of the recent fertility decline. The factors which are thought to be responsible for this change in Maori fertility are rapid urbanization, a low level of infant mortality and an increase in the overall level of education.A further decline in Maori fertility will depend on the continuation of the tendency in fertility among the younger women.

Residency differentials in Mormon fertility

Abstract Although one of the most consistent findings of recent fertility studies is the convergence of the religious differentials in fertility, few data have been analysed to discover Mormon fertility trends and differentials. This paper, based on data obtained on 1,001 Mormon couples, is concerned with describing the effects that the dispersion of Mormon families from the Mormon centre in Utah to surrounding areas with various social conditions is having on the fertility of the re-located Mormon families. Data presented clearly show that such families do, on the average, have a lower fertility than do their Mormon contemporaries residing in the homogeneous Mormon society in Utah. They probably compromise their religious obligations to have children with the contradicting demands of their new environment. Their loyalty to these religious beliefs, however, is confirmed by data which show that they tend to have larger families in their new environments than do their non-Mormon neighbours.

Education and the Derived Demand for Children

A negative correlation across households between parent's education and completed fertility is one of the most widely and frequently observed relationships in the empirical literature on human fertility behavior. In this paper I utilize the emerging economic theory of household behavior, which is also employed in other papers in this Supplement, to formulate an explanation for this observed negative correlation. In particular, the paper has two objectives: (1) to consider the mechanisms through which a couple's level of education might affect their fertility and (2) to document the effects of education on one of these mechanisms that is an aspect of fertility control-the choice of a contraceptive technique. The following section briefly outlines the theoretical framework, and in Section III I discuss the mechanisms through which education's influence may operate. Throughout, the discussion is restricted to channels of influence from education to fertility; that is, the reverse causation is ruled out by assumption. The specific focus of this discussion should not be interpreted as an assertion of the exclusiveness or the primacy of education's influence on fertility. Section IV considers the fertility-control decision in greater detail. It also reports on my initial empirical work with the 1965 National Fertility Study, a nationwide sociological survey of 5,600 U.S. women undertaken by the Office of Population Research at

Recent Fertility Decline in Ceylon

Recent Fertility Decline in Ceylon

CEYLON: The Relationship of Demographic Factors and Marital Fertility to the Recent Fertility Decline

Several articles in this bulletin have been addressed to the problem of analyzing the relative effects of demographic factors and marital fertility on birth rate decline in countries with national family planning programs. This account covers recent trends in Ceylon and discusses possible future effects of the Ceylonese age and marital structure on National Program goals. It was prepared by Nicholas H. Wright M.D. formerly Medical Advisor Population Council-Ford Foundation Project Ministry of Health Ceylon now Staff Associate in the Councils Technical Assistance Division. (excerpt)

Recent fertility declines in Hong Kong: the role of the changing age structure

Abstract The birth rate in Hong Kong fell rapidly from 1961 to 1966: from 35·5 in 1961 to 25·8 in 1966 1 These rates are based on corrected estimates of population and of births made after the 1966 census. They differ somewhat from rates published before that, because the earlier rates had not been adjusted for some underregistration of births and had been calculated on larger population bases than proved to be justified by the census. - a decline of27%. Such a decline deserves special attention, because there are only a few examples of such trends in poor, high-fertility populations since World War II. We have just begun to find evidence of such declines in a few of the other rapidly developing countries of Asia: Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, and Malaysia.

Recent Fertility Declines in Hong Kong: The Role of the Changing Age Structure

Recent Fertility Declines in Hong Kong: The Role of the Changing Age Structure

Recent fertility trends in West Malaysia

In the last decade, there has been a dramatic reduction in West Malaysian fertility. Between 1957 and 1966, official government statistics record that the crude birth rate declined from 46.2 to 37.3 -a decrease of nineteen percent.' Whereas comparable large fertility changes in Hong Kong in the years 1961-1965 were recently shown to be primarily due to changes in the age structure of the population, we believe that most of the decline in West Malaysia has resulted from real changes in the fertility of married women. A rapid shift in the proportion of women married in the youngest ages of the childbearing years has also been an important * Dr. Cho is Senior Demographic Adviser to the National Family Planning Board of Malaysia and Research Associate, Population Studies Center, University of Michigan. Dr. Palmore is Assistant Professor of Sociology, University of Michigan, and Research Associate of the University's Population Studies Center. Mr. Saunders is a Program Officer of the Ford Foundation. This study was made possible by support from the Ford Foundation. The authors wish to acknowledge the cooperation of the National Family Planning Board of Malaysia in providing data from the West Malaysian Family Survey which was carried out by the Department of Statistics, Malaysia, under the auspices of the Board. Appreciation is also extended to the Department of Statistics for the use of data from the 1957 Census of Population, vital statistics reports, and the Malaysian Socio-Economic Survey. Professor Ronald Freedman kindly reviewed an earlier draft of this report and made many valuable comments.

Recent population trends and family planning activity in the Caribbean

Recent population trends and family planning activities in the Carib bean islands and the mainland countries of Guyana Surinam British Hond uras and French Guiana reveal that the rapid rate of population growth in the last few decades has led to considerable government action to enc ourage family planning and population control. One important factor in this development has been the acquiescence of the Roman Catholic Church authorities despite continuing official opposition. Though socioeconomic imperatives have been the strongest impetus to these activities individual human needs such as maternal health and the problems of the unwanted child have also been important. It is not clear if the observed decline in the fertility rate in the Caribbean since 1960 has been directly caused by increased family planning services but a circumstantial relationship can be drawn between this decline and the development and distribution of relatively safe and acceptable contraceptive methods specifically the IUD and oral contraceptives. The possibility remains that the recent fertility decli ne is only transitory and will reverse itself in the near future.

Recent fertility change in Ceylon and prospects for the national family planning program

1) The crude birth rate decline in Ceylon between 1953–1963 occurred, for the most part, because of changes in the age structure and the marital status of women 15–49. Marital fertility changed very little between the two years. These developments clearly slowed Ceylon’s rate of population growth. 2) The continuing and increasing decline of the crude birth rate after 1963 is perhaps more due to declining marital fertility rather than continuing changes in age-marital structure. 3) The fertility decline after 1963 probably represents the effects of family planning but not of the National Family Planning Program which began in 1966 and was reaching full development only by mid-1968. 4) While the marital status patterns of the next few years are unknown, it is certain that the relative numbers of women 20–39 will increase, mainly at the lower end of that age distribution. This development will tend to inflate the crude birth rate unless compensated for by reduced marital fertility, continued or increasing postponement of marriage, or an increase in the proportion of never-married women. 5) In order to reach the goal of a crude birth rate of 25 in 1975, about 135,000 births must be prevented. This means that the 1966 fertility rate for women 15–49 must be reduced by about thirty percent in nine years. 6) Although the program has moved slowly, activity is increasing and the outlook is generally good if current plans are implemented quickly and new proposals, particularly for the establishment of comprehensive family planning services at institutions, are approved and funded.

Studies in the recent marriage and fertility data of England and Wales

With the appearance of the Report of the Royal Commission on Population and several volumes of ancillary papers, it may seem that the potentialities for fruitful statistical analysis of recent marriage and fertility data in this country have been exhausted, and that little fresh work can usefully be done on them until the extent of the experience has been enlarged by the passage of time.There is, however, a wide area for statistical investigation that appears not yet to have been completely charted, in spite of the penetrating studies made by those who worked on behalf of the Royal Commission. The available data offer scope for the formulation of new techniques of analysis and presentation, and for examination by approaches different from those made by the Commission's demographers, which had, in the main, the particular purpose of ascertaining whether or not the people of this country are replacing themselves.

Studies in the Recent Marriage and Fertility Data of England and Wales

Studies in the Recent Marriage and Fertility Data of England and Wales

Recent Trends in Birth Rates among Foreign and Native-White Married Women in Up-State New York

ET EN or fifteen years ago it would have sounded absurd to say that there is probably little basic difference between the birth rates of foreign and native-white stocks in this country. That the foreign-born were very prolific was one of the arguments often stated in behalf of more rigid immigration restrictions. Now that such legislation has been effected there is little popular concern over birth rates of the foreign-born. The question has also been neglected by students of population partly because of the diminishing numerical importance of the foreign-born, but mainly because sufficient data are lacking. Nevertheless, an adequate and accurate comparison by nativity of recent fertility trends would throw much light on the nature of the recent declines of the general birth rate. For purposes of such a comparison, the Annual Reports of the New York State Health Department provide unusually good data insofar as numbers of births are concerned. From this source it was possible to secure for each year from I9I7 to I934 the numbers of legitimate2 births in New York State exclusive of New York City according to the color, nativity, and age of the mother. The accuracy of the rates presented in these pages depends in large part upon the accuracy of the population estimates,8 and such