Recent fertility change in Ceylon and prospects for the national family planning program

Abstract

1) The crude birth rate decline in Ceylon between 1953–1963 occurred, for the most part, because of changes in the age structure and the marital status of women 15–49. Marital fertility changed very little between the two years. These developments clearly slowed Ceylon’s rate of population growth. 2) The continuing and increasing decline of the crude birth rate after 1963 is perhaps more due to declining marital fertility rather than continuing changes in age-marital structure. 3) The fertility decline after 1963 probably represents the effects of family planning but not of the National Family Planning Program which began in 1966 and was reaching full development only by mid-1968. 4) While the marital status patterns of the next few years are unknown, it is certain that the relative numbers of women 20–39 will increase, mainly at the lower end of that age distribution. This development will tend to inflate the crude birth rate unless compensated for by reduced marital fertility, continued or increasing postponement of marriage, or an increase in the proportion of never-married women. 5) In order to reach the goal of a crude birth rate of 25 in 1975, about 135,000 births must be prevented. This means that the 1966 fertility rate for women 15–49 must be reduced by about thirty percent in nine years. 6) Although the program has moved slowly, activity is increasing and the outlook is generally good if current plans are implemented quickly and new proposals, particularly for the establishment of comprehensive family planning services at institutions, are approved and funded.