A Demographic Decomposition of the Recent Increase in Crude Birth Rates in China

Abstract

The triple standardization method was used to estimate the separate effect of changes in age structure marriage pattern and marital fertility on the crude birth rate in China. The decomposition method is described. Data were from the 1982 Census the 1987 1% Population Survey and the 1988 2/1000 Fertility and Contraceptive Survey. Single-year age data for 1981 and 1987 were estimated nationally and for each province based on the 1982 population census and life tables. Single-year ages of both sexes in 1984 were estimated from 1987 survey data and life tables. Age-specific fertility rates are given from the 1988 2/1000 Survey. The 1984 birth rate was computed separately and comparability with 1987 data was obtained by the same calculation. Discussed are 3 components of recent fertility change data methods and data sources 1981 and 1987 compared and 1987 and 1984 compared. It is concluded that changes in age structure and declining age at marriage are primarily responsible for the increase in the crude birth rate for the country as a whole and for most provinces. The increase in marital fertility is much less important. Chinas population growth is not considered in light of this study to the out of control again or to be a reversal of trends in marital fertility. Large birth cohorts in the 1960s entered their childbearing years in the 1980s. The New Marriage Law legalized a minimum age at marriage of 20 years instead of 23 years and this accounts for the declining age at marriage rather than a weakening of the family planning program in China. The civil registration of marriage data between 1984-87 had an impact of 5% on the crude birth rate in 1984 compared with an impact of 13.2% from age structure and 7.6% from marriage pattern. The small increase in marital fertility is explained by the relaxation of fertility control policies in rural areas to allow for a 2nd child with appropriate spacing. Compliance with the birth spacing policy was better in 1987 than in 1984 when the policy was introduced. Administrative decentralization has also loosened policy control. It is projected from the recent 1990 census that the number of women in the childbearing ages will be 322 million for each year between 1991-95 (an 8.1% increase over 1986-90 and a 16.2% increase in the peak childbearing years of 20-29). Promoting late marriage and late childbearing will help to curb population growth.