Recent Fertility Decline Research Articles

Ideal Family Size and Reproductive Orientations: An Exploration of Change Over Time in the United States

Drawing on more than 30 years of nationally representative microdata from the General Social Survey, this article comprehensively updates recent trends in ideal family size in the United States. It first documents stability in ideal family sizes between the mid-1980s and 2018, even in the face of a recent fertility decline. Next, the study adopts a latent class approach that identifies typologies of “reproductive orientations,” defined as multidimensional mental models of reproduction encompassing ideal family size, attitudes toward reproductive labor, and views on reproduction contexts. The findings indicate three distinct classes of reproductive orientations: Progressive Familialists, Conservative Familialists, and Blended Egalitarians. Further analyses suggest that the prevalence of these classes has changed over time and that class membership is associated with distinct patterns of childbearing and marriage. These findings deepen contemporary understandings of ideal family size in the United States and have broader implications for how demographers conceptualize and measure fertility preferences across diverse contexts.

Educational field, economic uncertainty, and fertility decline in Finland in 2010-2019.

Fertility declined sharply and unexpectedly in Finland in the 2010s across educational levels. Using Finnish register data, we calculated total fertility rates (TFRs) and the proportion of women expected to have a first birth in 2010-2019 for 153 educational groups-reflecting field and level-and estimated how the characteristics of a group predicted its decline. As the educational field predicts factors related to economic uncertainty, heterogeneity in fertility decline across fields could shed light on the role of economic uncertainty behind the recent fertility decline. In general, women with the highest initial fertility levels (health, welfare, and education) and women in agriculture experienced weaker fertility declines (around -20% or less), while women with the lowest initial levels (ICT, arts and humanities) experienced stronger declines (around -40% or more). The extent of the fertility decline increased with higher unemployment and lower income levels in the field and with a lower share employed in the public sector. These uncertainty measures together explained one-fourth of the decline in TFR and two-fifths of the decline in first births. The results imply that fertility declined across all groups, but those with stable job prospects escaped very strong declines. Objective economic uncertainty is one aspect that mattered for the recent fertility decline.

Changing fertility patterns in China

China's recent fertility data collected from the 2020 population census and 2017 fertility survey have considerably improved in quality. Based on these, we can assess the levels and patterns of fertility with high confidence. We reconstruct China's fertility history from 1990 using these two types of data and review the trends and characteristics of fertility transitions and changing fertility patterns in China. Over the past half century, China has experienced an extraordinary fertility transition and decline, which can be described as three stepwise downward jumps in fertility that occurred in the 1970s, 1990s, and 2010s. While the tempo effect has always depressed fertility, the quantum effect became positive in the most recent fertility decline, when China made successive adjustments to its fertility policy. Age, parity, and interval patterns of fertility in China have also undergone fundamental changes influenced by changing fertility policies and rapidly expanding higher education. The recent rapid decline in fertility is driven by the increasing postponement of marriage, a large reduction in fertility for lower education groups, and a rising proportion of younger women accessing higher education.

Birth cohort changes in fertility ideals: evidence from repeated cross-sectional surveys in Finland

Abstract Fertility has declined in developed countries but whether there is a similar pattern in the number of children individuals wish to have (henceforth an ideal number of children) remains unclear. Using repeated cross-sectional survey data from the Finnish Family Barometers, we examine birth cohort changes in the ideal number of children among men and women from five birth cohorts (1970–1974, 1975–1979, 1980–1984, 1985–1989, and 1990–1994). We also investigate whether associations between socioeconomic factors and the ideal number of children differ across birth cohorts, and whether there are any gender differences in these associations. We find that the ideal number of children is lower among more recent than earlier birth cohorts and that this shift is driven by substantially higher child-free ideals among recent cohorts. While the ideal number of children among men and women is associated with socioeconomic factors, birth cohort differences remain significant after controlling for these characteristics. These findings suggest that large birth cohort differences in child-free ideals are not due to the individual socioeconomic circumstances of more recent birth cohorts. Rather, it appears that the childbearing attitudes of Finns have changed and may have contributed to the recent fertility decline.

The recent decline in period fertility in England and Wales: Differences associated with family background and intergenerational educational mobility

During 2010–20, period fertility in England and Wales fell to its lowest recorded level. The aim of this paper is to improve our understanding of the decline in period fertility in two dimensions: differentials by the education of a woman's parents (family background) and by a woman's education in relation to that of her parents (intergenerational educational mobility). The analysis finds a substantial decline in fertility in each education group, whether defined by a woman's parents’ education alone or by a woman's own education relative to her parents’ education. Considering parents’ and women's own education together helps differentiate fertility further than analysing either generation's education in isolation. Using these educational mobility groups more clearly shows a narrowing of TFR differentials over the decade, but timing differences persist.

Growing Pains: Can Family Policies Revert the Decline of Fertility in Spain?

This article aims to analyze the capability of family policies to reverse the sharp decline in fertility that has been observed in Spain in recent decades. The analysis was carried out by applying two mathematical techniques: the genetic algorithm and the strategic scenarios. Firstly, a mathematical model was designed and validated adjusting the combined performance of fertility and family policies during the 2008–2019 period. Subsequently, this model was applied to the future (2020–2060) to extrapolate the evolution of fertility considering different models of family policies. The results demonstrate that a model of family policies that is coherent with other socially desirable objectives, such as gender and social equality, will be insufficient to reverse the current downward trend in fertility. Therefore, these outcomes point to the need to articulate and harmonize diverse public policies considering the principles of equality and well‐being to modify the recent decline in fertility. An increase in fertility must therefore be identified as a socially desirable goal and public policies must be adapted to this objective, in the understanding that fertility not only requires family policies but also their coherence with the employment and educational policies and work–life balance mechanisms offered by public institutions.

The Onset of Fertility Transition in Pakistan

In a Comment published in the Autumn 2000 issue of this journal, Mr Ghulam Soomro1 takes issue with our recent article in Population and Development Review.2 Although Mr Soomro is highly critical of our article, we are pleased that he has read the article carefully and made the effort to write an extended comment. We are not prepared, however, to concede the major points in that Comment. Two major points are made by him. First, that marital fertility decline is a small component of the recent fertility decline in Pakistan, which has been mainly due to postponement of entry to first marriage. Second, that the underlying motivation for fertility change in the 1990s has been economic distress, a consequence in part of the structural adjustment programmes instituted in the late 1980s. However, in the first point, Soomro interprets the demographic data from the past three decades incorrectly and, in the second point, he misrepresents our argument.

Effects of smoking on the tissue regeneration-associated functions of human endometrial stem cells via a novel target gene SERPINB2

BackgroundSmokers directly inhale mainstream cigarette smoke, which contains numerous known and potential toxic substances, and thus, smoking is expected to have broad harmful effects that cause tissue injury and dysfunction. Interestingly, many studies have suggested that the recent decline in female fertility and increased rate of spontaneous abortion could be associated with increased smoking rates. Indeed, women that smoked for 10 years or more were reported to have a ~ 20% higher infertility rate than women that had never smoked. However, the reasons for the underlying harmful aspects of smoking on female fertility remain a matter of debate. Importantly, a previous study revealed that resident endometrial stem cell deficiency significantly limits the cyclic regeneration potential of endometrium, which, in turn, decreases successful pregnancy outcomes. In this context, we postulated that exposure to mainstream cigarette smoke extracts might decrease female fertility by inhibiting the functions of resident endometrial stem cells.MethodsWe investigated whether cigarette mainstream smoke exposure directly inhibits various tissue regeneration-associated functions of endometrial stem cells, such as self-renewal, migration, pluripotency, and differentiation capacity in vitro. Next, we determined whether SERPINB2 mediates cigarette smoke-induced suppressive effects on various tissue regeneration-associated functions by depleting SERPINB2 expression with specific shRNA targeting SERPINB2. Mice were injected intraperitoneally with low (0.5 mg/kg) or high (1 mg/kg) doses of cigarette smoke extract (10 times for two weeks), and endometrial stem cells were then isolated from mice uterine tissues.ResultsWe found that exposure to cigarette smoke extracts remarkably suppressed various tissue regeneration-associated functions of endometrial stem cells, such as self-renewal, migration, multilineage differentiation ability, and pluripotency in vitro and in vivo by activating the SERPINB2 gene. Indeed, cigarette smoke-induced inhibitory effects on various endometrial stem cell functions were significantly abolished by SERPINB2 knockdown.ConclusionsThese findings provide valuable information on the harmful effects of cigarette smoking on resident endometrial stem cells and hopefully will facilitate the developments of promising therapeutic strategies for subfertile or infertile women that smoke cigarettes.

The impact of fine particulate matter (PM) on various beneficial functions of human endometrial stem cells through its key regulator SERPINB2

Fine particulate matter (PM) has a small diameter but a large surface area; thus, it may have broad toxic effects that subsequently damage many tissues of the human body. Interestingly, many studies have suggested that the recent decline in female fertility could be associated with increased PM exposure. However, the precise mechanisms underlying the negative effects of PM exposure on female fertility are still a matter of debate. A previous study demonstrated that resident stem cell deficiency limits the cyclic regenerative capacity of the endometrium and subsequently increases the pregnancy failure rate. Therefore, we hypothesized that PM exposure induces endometrial tissue damage and subsequently reduces the pregnancy rate by inhibiting various beneficial functions of local endometrial stem cells. Consistent with our hypothesis, we showed for the first time that PM exposure significantly inhibits various beneficial functions of endometrial stem cells, such as their self-renewal, transdifferentiation, and migratory capacities, in vitro and in vivo through the PM target gene SERPINB2, which has recently been shown to be involved in multiple stem cell functions. In addition, the PM-induced inhibitory effects on the beneficial functions of endometrial stem cells were significantly diminished by SERPINB2 depletion. Our findings may facilitate the development of promising therapeutic strategies for improving reproductive outcomes in infertile women.

Age at First Marriage and Fertility Decline in Dabat Health and Demographic Surveillance System Site, Northwest Ethiopia: Decomposition Analysis.

BackgroundFertility decline in Ethiopia has been documented since the 1990s. Amhara National Regional State has recorded the most noticeable fertility decline. However, the specific factors that explain the incipient course of fertility decline in the study area and their relative contributions were not well investigated. Hence, the purpose of this study was to determine contributing factors of fertility decline and to assess variations in fertility that can be attributed to both changes in characteristics and reproductive behaviors of women aged 15–49 years between 2008 and 2014 in Dabat Demographic and Health Surveillance Site, Northwest Ethiopia.MethodsCross-sectional censuses were carried out in a Dabat Health and Demographic Surveillance System site in 2008 and 2014. Data for 4,775 and 10,807 women of reproductive age in 2008 and 2014 were used for the analysis. A Poisson regression model was employed to assess the trends of determinants of fertility, and multivariate decomposition analysis was applied to evaluate observed changes in fertility using data from two consecutive cross-sectional censuses of Dabat HDSS.ResultsFindings indicated that there was a reduction of an average 640.69 births per 1,000 women of reproductive age during 2014 compared to 2008 in the surveillance site (95% CI=−669.5 to −582.4). This overall change in fertility was attributed to both the changing characteristics of women (76%) (95% CI=−524.74 to −453.13) and their reproductive behavior (24%) (95% CI=−224.36 to −79.14). Drivers of the recent fertility decline were increased age at first marriage, a decreased proportion of currently married women, shift in women’s birth to later age, and a higher women’s educational status.ConclusionThis study indicated that the overall reduction in fertility was attributed to both changing characteristics of women and their reproductive behavior. Major contributors to the changes in fertility were postponing women’s first marriage to a later age and changes in the proportion of currently married women over the study period. Encouraging women to complete at least secondary education is important to increase the age at first marriage and birth, which will in turn accelerate the current fertility transition.

Noncanonical functions of glucocorticoids: A novel role for glucocorticoids in performing multiple beneficial functions in endometrial stem cells

Chronic stress has a negative impact on many fertility-related functions; thus, the recent decline in female fertility seems to be at least partially associated with increased stress. The secretion of glucocorticoids is a typical endocrine response to chronic stress and indirectly reduces uterine receptivity through the hypothalamus-pituitary-gonadal (HPG) axis. However, in addition to its well-known canonical role, the direct effects of chronic stress-induced glucocorticoids on various uterine functions and their underlying molecular mechanisms are complex and have not yet been revealed. Recent studies have found that resident stem cell deficiency is responsible for the limited regenerative potential of the endometrium (the innermost lining of the uterine cavity) during each menstrual cycle, which subsequently increases infertility rates. In this context, we hypothesized that stress-induced glucocorticoids directly damage endometrial stem cells and consequently negatively affect endometrial reconstruction, which is important for uterine receptivity. In addition to its well-known canonical roles, we identified for the first time that cortisol, the most abundant and potent glucocorticoid in humans, directly suppresses the multiple beneficial functions (self-renewal, transdifferentiation, and migratory potential) of human endometrial stem cells through its functional receptor, glucocorticoid receptor (GR). Glucocorticoids inhibit well-known survival signals, such as the PI3K/Akt and FAK/ERK1/2 pathways. More importantly, we also found that immobilization of stress-induced glucocorticoids suppresses the various beneficial functions of tissue resident stem cells in vivo. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to investigate the direct effects of glucocorticoids on the regenerative capacity of endometrial stem cells, and the findings will facilitate the development of more promising therapeutic approaches to increase female fertility.

Spreading Uncertainty, Shrinking Birth Rates: A Natural Experiment for Italy

AbstractMany previous studies have documented the procyclicality of fertility to business cycles or labour market indicators in Western countries. However, part of the recent fertility decline witnessed since the Great Recession has been left unexplained by traditional measures. The present study advances the notion that birth postponement might have accelerated in response to rising uncertainty, which fuelled negative expectations and declining levels of confidence about the future. To provide empirical support for the causal effect of perceived uncertainty on birth rates, we focus on Italy’s sovereign debt crisis of 2011–2012 as a natural experiment. Perceived uncertainty is measured using Google trends for the term ‘spread’—which acted as somewhat of a barometer for the crisis both in the media and everyday conversations—to capture the general public’s degree of concern about the stability of Italian public finances. A regression discontinuity in time identifies the effect of perceived uncertainty on birth rates in Italy as a drop between 1.5% and 5%, depending on model specification.

Roles of Proximate Determinants of Fertility in Recent Fertility Decline in Ethiopia: Application of the Revised Bongaarts Model.

IntroductionIn Ethiopia, the fertility rate declined from 5.4 in 2005 to 4.6 by 2016. Many factors have been contributing to this decline. Understanding the factors contributing to the fertility decline and their level of fertility inhibiting effect has a paramount policy implication in any country. This study aimed to assess the contribution of the four proximate determinants of fertility, ie, contraception use, postpartum infecundity, marriage and abortion rate, to fertility decline in Ethiopia since 2005.MethodsThis study used publicly available data from the Ethiopia Demographic and Health Surveys (EDHS) of 2005, 2011 and 2016. The EDHS data were the representative data collected from the reproductive-age women through a cross-sectional study. The revised and fine-tuned Bongaarts model of proximate fertility determinants was used for data analysis. The components needed for the analysis were extracted from the full EDHS data using the STAT compiler. Finally, the analysis was done using Microsoft Excel.ResultsOf the four proximate determinants of fertility, postpartum insusceptibility contributed the highest fertility inhibiting effect in all three EDHS, and its level was also more prominent among the poorest women. While post partum infecundity, marriage and abortion had a relatively constant effect on fertility over the last 15 years, the fertility inhibiting effect of contraceptive use significantly increased from 15% to 37%.ConclusionIn conclusion, fertility variation in Ethiopia is largely due to the three intermediate determinants of fertility. Over the last one and half decades, contraceptive use was the single most important determinant responsible for fertility decline in Ethiopia. To achieve fertility at replacement level, the country needs a contraceptive prevalence rate of 69%, an increment of nearly 100% from its current contraceptive prevalence rate.

Contraception and fertility transition in AMHARA National Regional State of ETHIOPIA: an application of BONGAARTS\u2019 model

BackgroundThe overall decline of fertility in Amhara National Regional State between 2000 and 2011 was the highest in Ethiopia. The aim of the present study was to determine the most significant proximate determinant of fertility change during the last decade in the region using Bongaarts’ model.MethodsThe sources of data were the 2000, 2005, and 2011 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Surveys. The model indices were calculated for each survey. Decomposition of fertility change into components of proximal determinants was also carried out. An index value close to 1 is a negligible inhibiting effect while a large inhibiting effect when the value very closes to 0.ResultsThe fertility-constraining effect of contraception increased from 0.93 in 2000 to 0.65 in 2011; however, it was lower than the effect of postpartum insusceptibility at all given times. The index of marriage remained unchanged in constraining fertility over the period (0.71 in 2000 and 0.70 in 2011) while the influence of postpartum insusceptibility slightly declined from 0.49 in 2000 to 0.54 in 2011 but was stronger than contraception and marriage. The contribution of contraception was most important in urban areas (0.46 in 2011 from 0.52 in 2005 and 0.64 in 2000); however, in rural areas, it became an important determinant over the period (0.95 in 2000 and 0.69 in 2011). The effect of postpartum insusceptibility in rural areas showed a decreasing trend (0.48 in 2000 and 0.53 in 2011). The index of marriage in rural areas was stable overtime (0.75 in 2000 and 0.73 in 2011) while in urban areas the effect declined from 0.42 in 2000 to 0.65 in 2011. Marriage was the most important proximate determinant of fertility among women with secondary and above education but the impact declined during the period (0.41 in 2000 and 0.61 in 2011). The importance of postpartum insusceptibility in limiting fertility among women with secondary and above education declined overtime (0.77 in 2000 and 0.87 in 2011) whereas the contribution of contraception became more important (0.44 in 2000 and 0.35 in 2011).ConclusionsAn increase in the level of contraceptive use and effectiveness overtime was the single most important contributing factor for the recent fertility decline in the region.

생활시간 조사로 본 자녀의 가치 (Value of Children and Fatherhood)

Korean Abstract: 년 이후 자녀의 가치는 어떻게 변화하고 있을까? 2001년 등장한 초저출산이 이후 지속되면서 자녀를 바라보는 가치관이 변화했다는 주장이 제기되고 있다. 즉, 자녀의 가 치가 줄어들면서 출산율이 낮아졌다는 주장이다. 이 논문에서는 자녀의 가치를 부모가 투입하는 시간으로 환산 가능하다고 보고, 시간사용의 변화를 통해 자녀의 가치가 달라 졌는지 살펴보았다. 1999, 2004, 2009년도 생활시간조사자료를 활용하였고, 종속변수는 6세 이하의 자녀를 둔 부모가 자녀양육에 투입한 시간으로 조작화하였다. 연구결과 부모 의 자녀 양육시간은 최근에 올수록 더 길어지고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 2000년대 이후 변화하고 있는 근로시간과 학력수준이 각각 인구의 구성비 변화를 통해 자녀 양육 시간이 길어지고 있는 것으로 나타나고 있는지를 검증하기 위해 표준화 분석과 영향력분 해 분석을 시도하였다. 검증 결과 일부 구성비 변화효과가 발견되었지만, 실제 양육시간 증가효과가 훨씬 더 큰 것으로 나타났다. English Abstract: The objective of this proposed research is to study the changes of fatherhood focusing on child-rearing at home. We attempt to examine the general belief that the value of children has been decreasing in nowadays. It is well known that the younger generations are suffering from time famine (time conflicts/deficit). So it is assumed that they decide to have the fewer children comparing to the older generations. But it may not be true. Instead, the younger generations have similar or even more priority on their children. The value of children has not been changed much. The reasons of the recent fertility decline in South Korea may need to be found at the areas other than the value changes.

Fertility Transitions in Ghana and Kenya: Trends, Determinants, and Implications for Policy and Programs

As a continent with 54 independent states Africa’s diversity is often highlighted but frequently forgotten when fertility is discussed. Fifty and more years ago to consider that all African countries and societies had a single fertility pattern (large numbers of children) and single trend (unchanging over time) was a valid characterization. Since the 1960s however that uniformity has disappeared replaced by substantial inter- and intra-country differences in fertility patterns and trends that render previous perceptions of continent-wide homogeneity obsolete. In this chapter we consider two African countries—Ghana and Kenya—whose fertility patterns and trends and their determinants have been well documented (Bongaarts 2008; Garenne 2008; Machiyama 2010; Shapiro and Gebreselassie 2008; Sneeringer 2009). Both countries have benefited from regularWorld Fertility Surveys (WFS) and Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) that record trends in fertility family planning (FP) and other relevant indicators. The recently introduced Performance Monitoring and Accountability 2020 (PMA2020) surveys monitor progress since 2012 for the FP2020 initiative and occasional Situation Analysis and Service Provision Assessment surveys have also detailed the readiness of the health system in both countries to make quality FP services available. Ghana and Kenya share some common history: both have relatively strong health system legacies from the period of British colonialization; both were among the earliest countries to achieve independence; they were the first two African countries that developed policies to address population growth in the 1960s; and both have received substantial and sustained resources over several decades from many external donors and technical assistance organizations explicitly intended to increase the availability and quality of family planning services. However they are composed of cultures that are both diverse within each country and markedly different in many ways between the two countries. The two countries demonstrate remarkably different pathways in fertility and family planning patterns and trends from the 1970s to the present. We highlight some of the key differences and similarities explain why they have occurred and identify insights that could inform a wider understanding of fertility transitions and the role of family planning in other African countries. (excerpt)

Understanding the Recent Decline in Adolescent Fertility in the United States, 2007-2013

Understanding the Recent Decline in Adolescent Fertility in the United States, 2007-2013

Women's education and the timing and level of fertility

Purpose– The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impacts of women's education on the mean age of women at first birth (denoting the timing of fertility) and total fertility rate (TFR, denoting the level of fertility) using cross-country panel data.Design/methodology/approach– The estimations proceed in two steps: first, the timing and level of fertility regressions are separately estimated, and second, two regressions are estimated at the same time as a form of a system equation to accommodate the correlations between error terms.Findings– It is found that a higher women's education tends to delay of child birth or family formation. In addition, there exists a negative relationship between the female secondary school enrollment ratio and TFR, meaning that the opportunity costs of childbearing and rearing increases when the level of women's education enhances. However, the authors have also found that the impacts of women's higher education on TFR is statistically insignificant in a few cases of estimations without sample selections.Originality/value– Fertility decline is a shift of childbearing to older ages. The delay of child birth or family formation is the major cause of the recent fertility decline, because a late women's age at first birth reduces the chances of having any further children. This implies that the timing and level of fertility are highly correlated to each other. In particular, many studies showed that women's education and employment have been identified as major parameters for the increase in women's age at first birth. Nonetheless, little attention has been paid to an empirical analysis of the relationship between women's education and the timing of fertility. Therefore, this paper is an extension of previous studies, estimating the relationship between women's education and the timing and level of fertility at the same time.

Dominance of Sterilization and Alternative Choices of Contraception in India: An Appraisal of the Socioeconomic Impact

BackgroundThe recent decline in fertility in India has been unprecedented especially in southern India, where fertility is almost exclusively controlled by means of permanent contraceptive methods, mainly female sterilization, which constitutes about two-thirds of overall contraceptive use. Many Indian women undergo sterilization at relatively young ages as a consequence of early marriage and childbearing in short birth intervals. This research aims to investigate the socioeconomic factors determining the choices for alternative contraceptive choices against the dominant preference for sterilization among married women in India.MethodsData for this study are drawn from the 2005–06 National Family Health Surveys focusing on a sample of married women who reported having used a method of contraception in the five years preceding the survey. A multilevel multinomial logit regression is used to estimate the impact of socioeconomic factors on contraceptive choices, differentiating temporary modern or traditional methods versus sterilization.FindingsReligious affiliation, women's education and occupation had overarching influence on method choices amongst recent users. Muslim women were at higher odds of choosing a traditional or modern temporary method than sterilization. Higher level of women's education increased the odds of modern temporary method choices but the education effect on traditional method choices was only marginally significant. Recent users belonging to wealthier households had higher odds of choosing modern methods over sterilization. Exposure to family planning messages through radio had a positive effect on modern and traditional method choices. Community variations in method choices were highly significant.ConclusionThe persistent dominance of sterilization in the Indian family planning programme is largely determined by socioeconomic conditions. Reproductive health programmes should address the socioeconomic barriers and consider multiple cost-effective strategies such as mass media to promote awareness of modern temporary methods.

China's Recent Fertility Decline: Evidence from Reconstructed Fertility Statistics

<titre>R&#233;sum&#233;</titre>Les chercheurs &#233;tudiant la f&#233;condit&#233; chinoise se trouvent dans une situation &#233;trange depuis le d&#233;but des ann&#233;es 1990. Alors que les nombreux recensements, enqu&#234;tes de f&#233;condit&#233; et enqu&#234;tes d&#233;mographiques annuelles fournissent suffisamment de donn&#233;es pour permettre des travaux approfondis sur la baisse r&#233;cente de la f&#233;condit&#233;, le sous-enregistrement et les incoh&#233;rences dont souffrent de plus en plus les principales donn&#233;es font obstacle &#224; de telles recherches. Ces difficult&#233;s sont aussi dues au fait que, si l&#8217;administration statistique publie quelques indices de f&#233;condit&#233; corrig&#233;s, elle ne donne pas de d&#233;tails sur les techniques utilis&#233;es depuis la fin des ann&#233;es 1990 pour effectuer ces ajustements. Cette recherche a pour objectif de combler certains manques de connaissances sur l&#8217;&#233;volution r&#233;cente de la f&#233;condit&#233; chinoise, en analysant les incoh&#233;rences des statistiques de f&#233;condit&#233; provenant de sources diff&#233;rentes, puis en reconstituant deux s&#233;ries coh&#233;rentes d&#8217;indicateurs &#224; partir des nombres de naissances officiels publi&#233;s et de ceux corrig&#233;s par les auteurs. Ces calculs permettent d&#8217;examiner le d&#233;clin r&#233;cent de la f&#233;condit&#233; chinoise et de montrer que, m&#234;me si le probl&#232;me de la qualit&#233; des donn&#233;es est largement r&#233;pandu, le sous-enregistrement de certaines donn&#233;es de f&#233;condit&#233; n&#8217;est peut-&#234;tre pas aussi important que le sugg&#232;rent les taux bruts de natalit&#233; et indicateurs de f&#233;condit&#233; corrig&#233;s officiels. La forte baisse de la f&#233;condit&#233; chinoise a commenc&#233; au d&#233;but des ann&#233;es 1990. L&#8217;ISF, au lieu de stagner &#224; 1,8 enfant par femme (chiffre officiel), est tomb&#233; au-dessous de 1,7 &#224; la fin de la d&#233;cennie, et continue de diminuer depuis.