This paper presents an approach to index portfolio re-balancing, focusing on the median slice of asset performance instead of the more traditional focus on “winners” and “losers.” In the proposed approach, one constructs an equal-weight portfolio from the index’s median (by returns) component. We consider the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) as a case study and introduce a systematic re-balancing strategy that targets the middle third (“median”) segment of asset performers within the index. The proposed methodology provides significantly better returns and mitigates drawdowns compared with a passive “buy-and-hold” strategy while promoting a disciplined and simple portfolio re-balancing strategy. The study empirically evaluates the effectiveness of the median-based re-balancing strategy over historical data. We compare our strategy to a benchmark portfolio closely tracking the DJIA index and other popular re-balancing strategies focusing on winners and losers, including the Dogs of the Dow strategy. We provide a simple model to compare factor loadings offered by such strategies and show that the median strategy provides broad diversification across sectors. We also analyze factor exposures of the proposed strategy using the 3-factor Fama-French model. The analysis demonstrates that the “median” rotation strategy consistently outperforms the Dow Jones and the broad market index S&P-500, yielding higher returns and reduced drawdowns.
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