Realization Of Fertility Intentions Research Articles

The Realization of Short-Term Fertility Intentions Among Immigrants and Children of Immigrants in Norway and Sweden

Immigrant fertility and the realization of fertility intentions are two topics of considerable interest in contemporary demographic research. Yet very few studies have explored the relationship between intended and actual fertility among immigrants and their children. Using data from the Norwegian and Swedish Generations and Gender Surveys, this article analyzes how both positive and negative short-term fertility intentions stated by men and women at Wave 1 in 2007/08 (Norway) or 2012/13 (Sweden) had been realized at register-based follow-ups three years after the initial interview. Results show that second-generation women of non-Western origin were significantly less likely than native women (defined here as Swedish-born women with two Swedish-born parents) to realize a positive fertility intention, whereas first-generation men of Western origin were significantly more likely than native men to realize a positive fertility intention. Western-origin men were also significantly less likely than native men to have an unintended birth. These findings are robust to controlling for demographic and socioeconomic characteristics at interview. Possible reasons for these intergroup realization differences include group differences in the ability to predict future changes to demographic and socioeconomic status and in the motivation to pursue the realization of a reported fertility intention. This article demonstrates that exploring immigrant-native differences in realization patterns can provide information about immigrants’ ideational and behavioral adaptation to the destination country’s fertility regime that cannot be attained by studying intended or actual fertility alone.

The Well-Being of Adolescents Conceived Through Medically Assisted Reproduction: A Population-Level and Within-Family Analysis

Medically assisted reproduction (MAR) plays an increasingly important role in the realization of fertility intentions in advanced societies, yet the evidence regarding MAR-conceived children’s longer-term well-being remains inconclusive. Using register data on all Finnish children born in 1995–2000, we compared a range of social and mental health outcomes among MAR- and naturally conceived adolescents in population-averaged estimates, and within families who have conceived both through MAR and naturally. In baseline models, MAR-conceived adolescents had better school performance and the likelihood of school dropout, not being in education or employment, and early home-leaving were lower than among naturally conceived adolescents. No major differences were found in mental health and high-risk health behaviours. Adjustment for family sociodemographic characteristics attenuated MAR adolescents’ advantage in social outcomes, while increasing the risk of mental disorders. The higher probability of mental disorders persisted when comparing MAR adolescents to their naturally conceived siblings. On average, MAR adolescents had similar or better outcomes than naturally conceived adolescents, largely due to their more advantaged family backgrounds, which underscores the importance of integrating a sociodemographic perspective in studies of MAR and its consequences.

Religiosity and the realisation of fertility intentions: A comparative study of eight European countries

AbstractPrevious studies have consistently shown that religious persons both intend and have more children than their non‐religious peers. However, it is yet unknown whether their higher number of children entirely reflects their higher intentions or whether religious persons also realise their intentions more often than non‐religious individuals. By including different geographical regions—four countries from Western Europe and four countries from Central and Eastern Europe—this study focuses on short‐term fertility intentions and their realisation over 3 years. Our study, which is mainly informed by the Theory of Planned Behaviour, compares three groups, based on two panel waves from the Generations and Gender Survey (2002–2013 and 2006–2016): Christians who regularly attend church services, nominal Christians, and non‐affiliated persons. The results confirm that practising Christians generally intend and have more children than nominal Christians and non‐affiliated persons. Effects are much stronger in Western than in Central and Eastern Europe. However, we find only weak significant differences in realising childbearing intentions by religiosity. This is in line with the theoretical assumption that obstacles to childbearing are already considered in the formation of fertility intentions.

Realisation of Fertility Intentions in Austria and Hungary: Are Capitals Different?

The study of fertility intentions has gained importance in the literature during the last decades. Nevertheless, research focussing on their realisation is still scarce due to limited availability of longitudinal data. Although a bulk of existing studies demonstrated regional variation and rural-urban differences in fertility, respective differences in the realisation of fertility intentions have not been addressed in prior research. We address this shortcoming by analysing the realisation of short-term fertility intentions in Vienna and Budapest as opposed to the remaining parts of Austria and Hungary, using two waves of the Generations and Gender Survey (GGS). Results clearly demonstrate that those two capitals are different: Although short-term childbearing intentions are very similar in capitals and other parts of the countries, probabilities of realisation are lower in capitals. These differences in realisation are at least partly explained by individual characteristics of inhabitants. There are, however, also factors that affect realisation differently in metropolitan than in less populated regions.

Regional context and realization of fertility intentions: are capitals differente? The examples of Austria and Hungary

Despite regional variation in fertility, within-country differences have hardly been addressed in the realm of realizing fertility intentions. We address this shortcoming by analyzing the realization of short-term fertility intentions in Austria and Hungary, comparing data from the capitals (Vienna and Budapest) to the remaining regions. Results demonstrate that realization is lower in Hungary than in Austria and lower in Vienna than in the remaining parts of Austria, whereas in Hungary, behavior tends to be similar in the capital and other regions. Apart from individual characteristics (e.g. age), housing turned out to matter for realization of short-term fertility intentions in both countries. Decomposition analyses reveal that population composition plays a role in differences concerning the realization between countries and at the regional level. Compositional effects refer to partner context, parity and economic situation at the country level, and to age structure, partner context and attitudes towards parenthood at the regional level. In both countries, housing conditions also contribute to differences in realization rates between capitals and other regions.

Fertility intention‐induced relocation: The mediating role of housing markets

AbstractThis study provides an empirical investigation on the impact of fertility intentions on residential relocation behaviours of partnered women during periods of housing price inflation in Australia. The finding suggests that there is a significant impact of fertility intentions on residential mobility. Couples with strong fertility intentions tend to move from one owner‐occupied dwelling to another with more capacity in more affordable local government areas. However, there is substantial heterogeneity around housing market conditions. The translation of fertility intention into relocation was not observed in housing markets with high affordability pressures. This study extends previous research on fertility intention and relocation behaviour by considering how housing market conditions can interfere the translation of fertility intentions into residential moves and the realisation of fertility intentions in births.

Educational differentials in the realisation of fertility intentions: Is sub-Saharan Africa different?

BackgroundThe gap between fertility outcomes and fertility ideals is notably higher in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) than elsewhere, relating to both under- and overachievement of fertility ideals. We consider the extent to which the relationship between fertility ideals and fertility outcomes is related to educational achievement. Further, we consider if these educational differentials are the same or different in SSA, and thereby consider the extent to which increasing levels of education in SSA may decrease fertility.Data and methodsWe use 227 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSs) from 58 countries worldwide to look at population- level measures of the mismatch between fertility ideals and fertility outcomes. Population level measures are used to assess whether the correspondence between fertility intentions and achievements differ by level of education. We then look at the individual-level determinants of both under- and overachieving fertility intentions. Data from the most recent DHS in 54 of the original countries is used for the individual level analysis, with five countries excluded due to the most recent available survey being out of date.ResultsAn average of 40% of women in SSA underachieve their stated fertility intentions compared to 26% in non-SSA countries. Furthermore, compared to other LMICs, higher levels of education are not related to better correspondence between fertility intentions and outcomes in SSA. In Middle/Western Africa countries, on average, 48% of women with secondary or higher education have fewer children than their ideal, compared to just 24% who have more children than their ideal.ConclusionWe argue that the phenomenon of underachieving fertility ideals (or unrealized fertility) may be of particular importance for the ongoing fertility transition throughout SSA, especially as more highly educated groups do not appear to be following the patterns observed elsewhere.

Regional context and realization of fertility intentions: the role of the urban context

ABSTRACT Despite regional variation in fertility, rural–urban differences in the realization of fertility intentions have not been addressed in previous research. This paper analyzes the realization with data from 11 European countries, employing binomial and multinomial logistic regression models, decomposition analyses, and examining the role of contextual factors. The results demonstrate that realization is lower in urban than in rural regions. In cities, postponement of childbearing is much more common. This can be partly explained by differences in characteristics (e.g., age, partnership status) of inhabitants who intend to have a(nother) child. Furthermore, contextual factors such as educational and economic opportunities play a role.

Short-term fertility intentions and their realisation in Poland

Previous studies identified large differences between countries in the extent to which childbearing intentions are realised. Failure to realise an intention to become a parent was found to be particularly common in the post-socialist countries. In this paper we examine whether similarly low rates of realisation of fertility intentions can be found in Poland. We use two waves of the Polish Generations and Gender Survey (GGS-PL), conducted in 2010/2011 and 2014/2015. We first describe fertility intentions of Polish women and men as declared at the survey’s first wave. Next, we examine whether the short-term childbearing intentions expressed at wave 1 were followed by an actual birth by the second round of the data collection. For the respondents who did not get a child between waves 1 and 2, we analyse the stability of their fertility plans. We find that approximately 35% of the respondents who at wave 1 intended to have a child in the next three years actually had one by wave 2. Both realization and stability of fertility intentions varied markedly by gender and parity.

Measuring the waiting time to pregnancy with the use of a retrospective questionnaire in the course of the GGS-PL study entitled ‘generations and gender survey’

Paper analyses relationship between age at first attempt to conceive and apparent fecundability defined as detection of a pregnancy. The purpose of the analysis is to account for biological consequences of age shifts on fertility schedules in contemporary low fertility societies. Age specific decrease in fecundability might lead to increase in waiting time to pregnancy measured as interval between onset of deliberate attempt to conceive and actual pregnancy. Analysis is based on retrospective measurement of waiting time to pregnancy (WtP) implemented in GGS-PL survey. Analyses reveal significant increase in WtP among women aged 35+ and only a slight increase for those aged 30–35. Due to increase in age at first reproduction we expect that share of couples having prolonged WtP or those remaining childless might increase in the future especially among social groups which are in the avant-garde of fertility postponement. Paper addresses an issue whether increase in age at first attempt to conceive among females might have an effect on likelihood of conception. Since postponement of reproduction seems to be almost universal feature of contemporary developed societies paper aims at measuring safe limits of postponement in which conception will not be endangered by a significant drop in fecundity. Analysis uses data on waiting time to pregnancy (WtP) to measure an impact of reproductive ageing on length of interval between first attempt to conceive and conception. Methodology of measuring WtP has been implemented in Polish GGS survey. Analyses reveal significant increase in WtP among women aged 35+, slight increase among females aged 30–35 and no decrease for younger females. Results suggest that postponement of reproduction beyond age 35 might decrease chances for achieving desired number of children during lifetime and ultimately increase observed proportion of childless females. Paper addresses an issue whether decrease in female fecundity (reproductive senescence) during life cycle might have an influence on realization of fertility intentions. Increasing age at first attempt to conceive might translate into lower than planned number of offspring due to divergence between lifecycle of modern females and changes in fecundity over the life course. We use waiting time to pregnancy (WtP) to account for impact of reproductive ageing on length of interval between first attempt to conceive a child and actual pregnancy. This retrospective methodology reflects definition of sub-fertility and infecundity as number of months with regular unprotected intercourse ending (or not) in pregnancy. Methodology of measuring WtP has been implemented in Polish GGS survey and contains questions about infertility and number of menstrual cycles needed for conception. Analyses reveal significant increase in WtP among women aged 35+, slight increase among females aged 30–35 and no decrease for younger females. Estimates of infertility yields around 6% for females and around 3% for males (as declared by respondents). These results are in line with results of other studies which suggest that postponement of reproduction beyond age of 35 might influence probability of conception (as well as transition to higher parities) and increase chance of remaining childless. Taking into account age patterns of fertility in Poland, reproductive senescence might not have a great impact on realization of fertility intentions on the level of general population. However, due to increase in age at first reproduction we expect that share of couples having problems with conception (prolonged WtP) might increase in the future especially among social groups which are in the avant-garde of fertility postponement.

Is gender inequality a barrier to realizing fertility intentions? Fertility aspirations and realizations in South Korea

ABSTRACTResearch highlights the emergence of national low fertility regimes and the importance of understanding how institutional gender inequity supports low fertility. In South Korea, where gender inequality is high and a national low fertility regime exists, many women express a desire for two children but bear one child. Does gender equity, particularly within the household, influence the realization of fertility desires within the context of institutional inequality? Using the Korean Longitudinal Survey of Women & Families, in this paper, I test the effect of gender equity within the family on second births. Evaluating a subsample of married women with one child who desire a second child, I find that women’s gender role attitudes, husbands’ housework and women’s responsibility for children’s education influence the likelihood of realizing a second birth. Results highlight the importance of men’s household contributions and women’s educational responsibilities on the realization of fertility intentions within low fertility regimes.

Channels of social influence on the realization of short-term fertility intentions in Germany

Abstract This paper studies the short-term fertility intentions of women and men and their subsequent behavior. Guided by the Theory of Planned Behavior, the intention-behavior link is analyzed using the first three waves of the German Family Panel (pairfam). The following research questions are addressed: To what extent do individuals realize their stated positive or negative fertility intentions over a period of two years, and what are the most important determinants that inhibit or enable the realization of short-term fertility intentions? Although women and men with a strong desire for a child, in particular parents, were most likely to have had a(nother) child, negative childbearing intentions were even more predictive. Social pressure exerted by parents or by friends appears to have had a stronger effect on the formation than on the realization of fertility intentions, while, surprisingly, expected social support did not have any noticeable effect. In addition, being in a stable relationship was by far the most important determinant of whether individuals had realized their positive fertility intentions.

Realization of fertility intentions by different time frames.

This paper focuses on the realization of positive fertility intentions with different time frames. The analyses are based on a unique combination of survey data and information from Norwegian administrative registers on childbearing in the years following the complete selected sample. Guided by the theoretical and empirical framework of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), the results suggest that a fertility intention's time frame is relevant for childbearing behaviour, but the patterns are somewhat different for respondents who were childless at the time of the interview compared to those who already had children. Overall, childless were less likely to realize their fertility intentions than parents. Following the TPB, childless may underestimate the difficulty of acting on their intentions and therefore have more difficulty realizing their intentions, versus parents who take into account their ability to manage another child. The results also show that childless with an immediate fertility intention are more likely to succeed than those with a longer-term intention. Likewise, parents with an immediate fertility intention are more likely to realize their intention during the two first years after the interview, but after four years the childbearing rate was higher among those with longer-term fertility intentions.

Failure to Realize Fertility Intentions: A Key Aspect of the Post-communist Fertility Transition

Our paper focuses on the realization of fertility intentions, exploring a new aspect of the post-communist fertility transition. By making use of a follow-up study, it was possible to compare five European countries and to analyze the chances of realizing short-term, time-dependent fertility intentions. There is always a difference between intention and behavior. It is partly due to demographic and social factors, such as age, parity, partnership status, but once these are accounted for, important differences remain between western European and post-communist countries. In the period after the turn of the millennium, chances of realizing intentions are significantly lower in post-communist countries than in western European countries. The lower chance of realization is a consequence of social anomie originating from discrepancy between slow value shift and the increased dynamism of structural changes.

The influence of the family network on the realisation of fertility intentions

The gap between fertility intentions and behaviour remains a contentious area of theoretical, methodological and policy debate. Previous fertility studies have focused on individual and institutional characteristics, at the expense of the recognition of meso-level family social capital and networks. This study examines the realisation of time-dependent fertility intentions for the transition to first and higher-order births. Building upon and extending the previous literature we explore two competing theoretical mechanisms of how high levels of family social capital operate to either enable or inhibit the realisation of intentions and the impact of cross-sibling effects. Using two waves of the Netherlands Kinship Panel Survey (NKPS), we also introduce a methodological extension by examining whether the inclusion of only those with positive fertility intentions in previous research has resulted in selection bias. By adopting a probit model with sample selection, we both avoid this selection problem and empirically test whether there is a bias. Results show that there are some, albeit negligible, unobserved characteristics affecting both an individual’s fertility intentions and the realisation of these intentions. High levels of family social capital operate to deter from having a child, particularly when individuals already have at least one child, suggesting that individuals adopt a ‘satisficing’ strategy. Our findings also suggest that children may operate as a means to generate family social capital. Having a sibling with a young child is associated with a higher probability to realise one’s own intention to have a first child.