The Realization of Short-Term Fertility Intentions Among Immigrants and Children of Immigrants in Norway and Sweden

Abstract

Immigrant fertility and the realization of fertility intentions are two topics of considerable interest in contemporary demographic research. Yet very few studies have explored the relationship between intended and actual fertility among immigrants and their children. Using data from the Norwegian and Swedish Generations and Gender Surveys, this article analyzes how both positive and negative short-term fertility intentions stated by men and women at Wave 1 in 2007/08 (Norway) or 2012/13 (Sweden) had been realized at register-based follow-ups three years after the initial interview. Results show that second-generation women of non-Western origin were significantly less likely than native women (defined here as Swedish-born women with two Swedish-born parents) to realize a positive fertility intention, whereas first-generation men of Western origin were significantly more likely than native men to realize a positive fertility intention. Western-origin men were also significantly less likely than native men to have an unintended birth. These findings are robust to controlling for demographic and socioeconomic characteristics at interview. Possible reasons for these intergroup realization differences include group differences in the ability to predict future changes to demographic and socioeconomic status and in the motivation to pursue the realization of a reported fertility intention. This article demonstrates that exploring immigrant-native differences in realization patterns can provide information about immigrants’ ideational and behavioral adaptation to the destination country’s fertility regime that cannot be attained by studying intended or actual fertility alone.