Real Import Research Articles

Real-Time Online Estimation Technology and Implementation of State of Charge State of Uncrewed Aerial Vehicle Lithium Battery

The SOC estimation of UAV lithium batteries plays a crucial role in the mission planning and safe flight of UAVs. Aiming at existing UAV lithium battery SOC estimation problems, such as low estimation accuracy and poor real-time performance, a real-time online estimation scheme for UAV lithium battery SOC is proposed. A model-based approach is adopted to establish an SOC estimation model on the basis of the Thevenin equivalent circuit model, and a UAV lithium battery online monitoring device is developed to monitor the current and voltage of the UAV lithium battery in real time and import the data into the SOC estimation model in real time for calculation. Using the developed online monitoring device, the current and voltage of the lithium UAV battery are monitored in real time, and the data are imported into the SOC estimation model in real time for calculation, realizing the real-time online estimation of the SOC of the lithium UAV battery. The experimental results show that the program can realize the real-time online estimation of UAV lithium battery SOC, and the estimation error is less than 3%, which meets the requirements of online estimation accuracy of the UAV lithium battery SOC.

U.S. Re-entry into the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement and Implications for the EU, Korea, China, and Japan: A CGE Approach

Purpose - With renewed greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, abatement commitments and the rejoining of the Paris Climate Agreement of 2015 by the U.S., this study assesses the impact of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions reduction, and the opportunity cost of the U.S. in implementing its nationally determined commitments (NDCs).
 Design/Methodology/Approach - The study employs the GTAP-E model, an extension of the static GTAP model with CO₂ emissions trading, and GTAP DB version 10A with a base year of 2014. Model implementation includes a baseline scenario that projects the global economy from 2014 to 2030, and four policy scenarios representing the implementation of U.S. NDC targets without and with emissions trading.
 Findings - Simulation results suggest that CO₂ emissions reduction with trading significantly lowers the emissions abatement cost compared to CO₂ emissions reduction with no trading. Furthermore, the study finds that CO₂ emissions reduction leads to a drop in industry output by all energy and most non-energy sectors. Simulation results illustrate that CO₂ emissions reduction by the U.S. significantly affects most of its trading partners’ real GDPs, welfare, export and import flows, and industry outputs.
 Research Implications - The study provides a comprehensive impact assessment of global CO₂ emissions reduction, including U.S. contributions to addressing climate change. Moreover, the study has quantified the opportunity cost the U.S. will likely pay for meeting its NDC targets, and the likely impact of CO₂ emissions reduction by the U.S. on its major trading partners, especially the EU, Korea, Japan, and China.

Foreign direct investment, remittances, real exchange rate, imports, and economic growth in Ghana: An ARDL approach

The main objective of this quantitative study is to ascertain the effect of foreign direct investment, real exchange rate, remittances, and import on economic growth in Ghana. Secondary data on gross domestic product, foreign direct investment, real exchange rate, remittances, import, and gross capital formation from 1980 to 2018 were analyzed. The study employed Autoregressive Distributed Lag for the econometrics analysis. The study found that foreign direct investment, real exchange rate, remittances, import, and gross capital formation cointegrates with economic growth. The main findings are that foreign direct investment, real exchange rate, import, and remittances matter from growth perspective. Remittances have a positive and significant effect on economic growth in Ghana both for the short run and the long run. The study also revealed that foreign direct investment, real exchange rate, and imports have a negative and significant effect on the growth process of Ghana’s economy for both the short run and the long run. The study recommends that the Ministry of Finance, Ghana, financial analysts and other policy makers should undertake steps to reduce imports and attract more remittances inflows to attain long-run economic growth. In addition, the economy must concentrate on viable exchange rate policies such as undervaluation of currency to stimulate sustainable economic growth.

Causal Relationship among Exports, Imports and Economic Growth in Nepal: Evidence from VAR Model

This study's goal is to evaluate the causal relation among Nepal's exports, imports, and real gross domestic product. One of the most significant sources of foreign currency income that reduces the strain on the balance of payments is considered to be exports. The relationship between real GDP, exports and imports is investigated on Nepalese economy over the period 1975-2020, using yearly data. For that purpose, Vector Autoregressive model is used as there is no cointegration among variables as per Johansen's approach. Similarly variance decomposition test is also conducted. Findings confirm the presence of relationship among Real GDP, exports and imports. The results of VAR granger causality test shows that surprisingly export doesn't cause real GDP and import whereas import causes real GDP. Similarly, real GDP causes export, and import also causes export. But there is no bi-directional causality between the variables. Nepal will gain from raising its international trade competitiveness to reduce current account deficits. Prioritizing research and development and producing export goods with high value added by focusing on science and technology are the simplest ways to do this. Similarly, in order to raise worker productivity, which will immediately spur economic growth and raise living standards in Nepal, there is a need to increase technology imports.

Digital Animism: Towards a New Materialism

With the advent of ‘the virtual world,’ we have naturally gauged the ‘reality’ of the virtual in terms of how close it comes to empirical experience. However, the common association of the virtual to simulation depends on a representational dualism that reduces it to a simulacrum of reality and prevents us from seeing its real import. Virtuality, rather than related to simulation, refers instead to potentiality. Far from being something that first appears with the digital-virtual as a technological simulation, the virtual constitutes the bare potentiality intrinsic to human experience, always subject to technological modulation. Despite the path of increasing abstraction marked by the evolution of the technologies of communication, I argue that the virtual world, paradoxically, reveals matter as ineluctably vital and in permanent movement and transformation. The digital thus does away with the dualism responsible for the modern disenchantment of nature and—decentering the human, placing it as equally part of a rhizomatic and entangled nature—lays the groundwork for an animistic ontology that is consonant with a new materialism.

Dış Ticaret Açığı Veren Ülkelerde Döviz Kurunun Dış Ticaret Performansı Üzerindeki Etkisi

Serbest ticaretin yükselişini küreselleşmenin ve teknolojik gelişmelerin desteklemesiyle döviz kurlarının önemi giderek artmıştır. Esnek kur sistemlerinde döviz kurunun dış ticaret hacmine ve dolayısıyla toplam üretime etki etmesi beklenmektedir. Bu kapsamda ekonomi politikası uygulamalarında döviz kurunun dış ticaretle ilişkisinin anlaşılabilmesi önemlidir. Çalışmanın amacı, seçilmiş ülkelerde döviz kuru ve dış ticaret hacimleri arasındaki ilişkinin karşılaştırmalı olarak incelenmesiyle literatüre katkı sağlanmasıdır. Bu doğrultuda 2020 yılında en fazla dış ticaret açığı veren sekiz ülkenin (ABD, İngiltere, Hindistan, Fransa, Türkiye, Mısır, Filipinler ve Pakistan) reel efektif döviz kuru (REDK) ile ithalat ve ihracat hacimleri arasındaki ilişki, Ocak 2003–Ocak 2022 döneminde aylık veriler kullanılarak tahmin edilmiştir. Analize döviz kurunu temsilen REDK’nın dahil edilmesiyle dış ticarette önemli belirleyiciler olan yurtiçi fiyatlar ile ticaret yapılan ülkelerdeki fiyatlar da değerlendirilmiştir. Analiz yöntemi tercihinde ülkelerin heterojen yapıları ve seriler arasındaki yatay kesit bağımlılık dikkate alınmıştır. Serilerin özellikleriyle uyumlu olan yeni nesil ekonometrik yöntemlerin kullanıldığı analizde sırasıyla CADF ve CIPS birim kök testleri, ardından Westerlund (2008) Durbin-Hausman Eşbütünleşme Testi, devamında Pesaran’ın (2006) geliştirdiği Ortak İlişkili Etkiler (CCE) Tahmincisi ile Emirmahmutoğlu ve Köse’nin geliştirdiği (2011) Panel Nedensellik Testi uygulanmıştır. Analiz bulguları şu şekilde sıralanmıştır. Eşbütünleşme Testi sonuçlarına göre analize dahil edilen ülkelerin tamamında REDK, ithalat ve ihracat hacmi arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Ardından modellerin uzun dönem katsayıları tahmin edilmiştir. CCE tahmin bulgularına göre ihracat hacmi uzun dönemde REDK’dan negatif, ithalat ve ihracat hacimleri ise birbirlerinden pozitif yönde etkilenmişlerdir. Panel Nedensellik Testi'nin Panel Fisher test istatistiği sonuçlarına göre, ihracat hacmi ve REDK arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. REDK ile dış ticaret hacimleri arasındaki ilişkilerin kısa dönemde çift yönlü olması değişkenler arasındaki etkileşimin döngüsel olduğunu göstermiştir.

An Early Warning System for Currency Crises in Emerging Countries

In this study we develop an early warning system (EWS) to forecast currency crises in emerging countries in Asia and Latin America, using logit regression on monthly data from 1992 to 2011. We found that macroeconomic and institutional variables are valuable indicators for forecasting crises. Our results show that a low level of export growth, current account surplus/GDP, GDP growth, a high level of real exchange rate growth, import growth, and short-term debt/reserves can explain the advent of a possible currency crisis. We found that a poor law and order scenario and high external conflict can lead to a currency crisis. Additional findings include high government stability and the absence of internal conflict, which contribute to an absence of democracy, ultimately leading to a currency crisis. The policy-makers can consider taking the effective pre-emptive actions to prevent the currency crises occurring in the future.

MetaDrive: Composing Diverse Driving Scenarios for Generalizable Reinforcement Learning.

Driving safely requires multiple capabilities from human and intelligent agents, such as the generalizability to unseen environments, the safety awareness of the surrounding traffic, and the decision-making in complex multi-agent settings. Despite the great success of Reinforcement Learning (RL), most of the RL research works investigate each capability separately due to the lack of integrated environments. In this work, we develop a new driving simulation platform called MetaDrive to support the research of generalizable reinforcement learning algorithms for machine autonomy. MetaDrive is highly compositional, which can generate an infinite number of diverse driving scenarios from both the procedural generation and the real data importing. Based on MetaDrive, we construct a variety of RL tasks and baselines in both single-agent and multi-agent settings, including benchmarking generalizability across unseen scenes, safe exploration, and learning multi-agent traffic. The generalization experiments conducted on both procedurally generated scenarios and real-world scenarios show that increasing the diversity and the size of the training set leads to the improvement of the RL agent's generalizability. We further evaluate various safe reinforcement learning and multi-agent reinforcement learning algorithms in MetaDrive environments and provide the benchmarks. Source code, documentation, and demo video are available at https://metadriverse.github.io/metadrive.

The role of exchange rate and relative import price on sawnwood import demand in Africa: Evidence from modified heterogeneous panel data methods

This study investigates the role of exchange rate and relative import price in sawnwood import demand in a panel of 30 African countries during 1985–2016 using the modified heterogeneous panel data techniques and the modified dynamic common correlated effect method. In the sawnwood import demand modelling and analysis, we controlled for the effects of structural changes and common shocks arising from increased economic and financial integration among countries which may affect our findings. Based on alternative estimators, the regression results reveal that real domestic income, real effective exchange rate, sawnwood relative import price and external reserves are significant determinants of sawnwood import demand in the long-run. The results show that the sawnwood import demand was fairly income inelastic, but, highly inelastic to changes in real effective exchange rate, real external reserves and relative sawnwood import price. Also, real effective exchange rate and sawnwood relative import price engender asymmetric impact on sawnwood import demand in Africa. A disaggregate analysis reveals variations of asymmetric impacts across countries. Some policy implications are drawn for managing the balance of payments problem and pollution associated with sawnwood consumption and for industrialization and social welfare.

Reason and Its Others in Coetzee's Jesus Novels

Reason and Its Others in Coetzee's Jesus Novels

Exchange Rate Volatility and Import Trade Flow Evidence From India-U.S. at Industry Level

The centre interest of the study is to explore the impact of exchange rate volatility on the India-U.S. trade flow of Import on 6 industries spanned from September 2002 to June 2019. We investigate the relationship at disaggregate level by industry-wise data with monthly frequency. We employ exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (E-GARCH) model to gauge volatility and thereafter ARDL bound testing approach to unveil the short and long-run association of real exchange rate volatility and import. The empirical analysis implies the existence of both short-run and long-run effect in 5 importing industries except manufactured (engineering) goods. While real exchange volatility appears to have statistically significant effect in short-run, but also estimated short-run lasts onto long-run effect in only three industries. The results confirm the information of import in time-series analysis. The finding of the study helps to undertake the view of invariability and considering the industry before policy making.

Exchange rate volatility and import trade flow Evidence from India-U.S. at Industry level

The centre interest of the study is to explore the impact of exchange rate volatility on the India-U.S. trade flow of Import on 6 industries spanned from September 2002 to June 2019. We investigate the relationship at disaggregate level by industry-wise data with monthly frequency. We employ exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (E-GARCH) model to gauge volatility and thereafter ARDL bound testing approach to unveil the short and long-run association of real exchange rate volatility and import. The empirical analysis implies the existence of both short-run and long-run effect in 5 importing industries except manufactured (engineering) goods. While real exchange volatility appears to have statistically significant effect in short-run, but also estimated short-run lasts onto long-run effect in only three industries. The results confirm the information of import in time-series analysis. The finding of the study helps to undertake the view of invariability and considering the industry before policy making.

South Africa’s agro processing trade in value added, global value chains (GVCs) perspective

The agro-processing sub-sector of the manufacturing industry has high recognition on the South African government’s development agenda. Yet, the contribution of the sector to the economy with respect to the foreign trade earning appears to be low in comparison to its potential and counterparts in the developed world. The objective of this study is to analyze the South African agro-processing sub-sector of the manufacturing industry trade performance in global value chains perspective and identify the potential policy recommendations to improve the sector benefit. The paper also gives an overview of South Africa’s agro-processing sector global value chains participation and the benefits from this in the form of value-added trade earning through backward linkages. The study used secondary data derived from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA); International Trade Center, COMTRADE; and Quantec EasyData (2017) and focused only on the agro-processing sector defined as food, beverage, and tobacco. The study results in general show that in each specific period the growth in real export and import values of agro-processing sub-sector of manufacturing industries has a decreasing trend with few exceptions. The results also indicate that South Africa has relatively low shares of foreign value-added products in its exports of food, beverages, and tobacco products in the agro-processing sub-sector of manufacturing industries goods.

Estimating supply and demand elasticities of dissolving pulp, lignocellulose-based chemical derivatives and textile fibres in an emerging forest-based bioeconomy

In a growing bioeconomy, traditional forest products markets change and diversify. Fossil-based inputs in the chemical, textile, apparel and downstream industries can be replaced by lignocellulose-based products such as dissolving pulp, cellulose-based chemical derivatives and textile fibres. When looking ahead, these previous niche products are likely to gain in economic importance. So far, little attention has been paid to the characteristics of macroeconomic relations of emerging lignocellulose-based materials on macroeconomic level. Key economic parameters for such materials are not available neither at regional nor at global level. This work aims to contribute to a better understanding of the market behavior of emerging forest products that are not yet covered by forest products market analysis. Therefore, this paper investigates how lignocellulose-based products respond to changes of main economic drivers and compute global market elasticities for dissolving pulp, cellulose-based chemical derivatives and textile fibres. To conduct our evaluation, we first test historical input data for non-constancy in time series due to structural changes using change-point estimator (MOSUM test). We subsequently carry out a global econometric analysis of demand and supply elasticities with income (GDP) and real import and export prices as explanatory variables. By doing so, we deliver key information for the adaptation of forest-product market analysis and modelling to an upcoming bioeconomy. The results show several structural changes especially in price data between 1992 and 2015, thus supporting the use of time series cuts to divide the time line from 1992 to 2015 into three different sub-periods. Elasticities are subsequently estimated for each of the sub-periods. The results from this econometric analysis provide import demand and export supply elasticities of dissolving pulp, cellulose chemical derivatives and cellulose textile fibres. In addition, we present elasticity estimation for the apparent consumption of dissolving pulp. Our findings outline the significant relationship between both export supply and import demand volumes and relative changes in prices and income. Across time periods, elasticities of cellulose-based derivatives and textile fibres do not show a clear trend towards more elastic or inelastic coefficients. However, the price elasticities of dissolving pulp fluctuate strongly from inelastic to highly elastic over time. Elasticity estimates of export supply indicate that it is sensitive to international competitiveness which in turn is governed by international demand. Finally, we statistically show that the estimated price and income elasticities of import demand can be analogously interpreted as the demand elasticity of apparent consumption. This is of great importance for economic equilibrium models, such as GFPM or EFI-GTM, in order to simulate and analyze forest sector developments and scenarios.

Recent Legislation that Secured a 'Right to Try' Unapproved Drugs: Why the 'Fuss' Over a 'Fix' of What 'Ain’t Broke'?

The significance of the federal Trickett Wendler, Frank Mongiello, Jordan McLinn, and Matthew Bellina Right to Try Act of 2017 and its state counterparts is widely misunderstood. The legislation is both more and less than it may seem at first blush. This much is clear: at the federal level, it opens a new pathway, alongside the existing FDA-regulated pathway, for making promising investigational drugs available to seriously ill patients who lack meaningful alternative treatment options (“treatment use”). This Article aims to elucidate the real import of these laws by examining them in the detailed historical context of how treatment use has been regulated before the laws’ advent, and how that regulation had repeatedly been challenged, unsuccessfully, in all three branches of government. The decades-long history of those prior challenges, all of which fundamentally targeted the FDA’s broad gatekeeping role in the modern drug regulatory paradigm, is excavated in considerable depth. Straddling this more-less dichotomy, this Article demonstrates on the one hand why the promise of the new legislation is less than proponents’ bold claims of being life-saving and transformative. To this end, this Article contrasts the new and extant pathways in light of decision factors that matter to mainstream drug developers. Their willingness to participate along any pathway is rate-limiting. Building on this view, this Article canvasses public reports through mid-2020 of actual “right to try” patient experience in order to substantiate the expectation that it would be scant, and unconvincing of broader uptake to come. On the more side of the dichotomy, this Article analyzes the broader ramifications of these bills, even beyond the potential to incentivize questionable fringe business models. In historical context, passage of the legislation is a celebrated “first” success in a long-running series of challenges to the FDA’s broad gatekeeping authority, in this specific context of treatment use. An undercurrent of aversion toward that authority has been persistent, and naturally flows to the sympathetic context of seriously ill patients. As a number of scholars and reporters have observed, proponents of “right to try” have a broader deregulatory agenda, and their ability to have achieved a first breakthrough in the treatment use context is the greater significance of the recent legislative campaign.

DETERMINANTS OF THE DEMAND FOR IMPORT OF BANGLADESH: A COINTEGRATION AND VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION ANALYSIS

This paper examines the determinants of import demand of Bangladesh by using the time series data for the period 1990-91 to 2015-16. The study found that both export and import of the country has increased significantly after the liberalization of its economy in early 1990s. But its import has always been higher than export resulting in widening of its trade deficit. Its export destinations are located in distant countries; USA, Germany and UK while its imports sources are neighbouring countries like China and India. Johansen’s cointegration method and vector error correction model was applied to estimate the determinants of its import demand. The results showed that there was a long-run relationship between real import, real GDP and Foreign exchange reserves. In the long-run, import was found to be more elastic to real GDP and inelastic with respect to foreign exchange reserves. The VEC model indicated that any deviation in import in the short-run would get corrected within a period of less than one year. The import was more elastic to real income in the short-run than in the long-run. The evidences showed that the volume of import would increase faster with increase in real GDP and would deteriorate the country’s trade balance unless accompanied by high export growth. Hence, there is a need to invest in establishing import substitute industries to control imports and promote exports to reduce trade deficit. KEYWORDS: Import, trade policy, real GDP, foreign exchange reserve, cointegration

The effect of exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Turkey

Purpose - Exchange rate volatility, which is defined as continuous fluctuations in exchange rates, has been frequently discussed in the literature recently due to its effects on developing economies. Exchange rate volatility is costly to the domestic economy through its direct and indirect effects on households and firms. Turkey implied different exchange rate regimes between 1980 and 2019. Also the use of exchange rate as a policy tool for fighting against inflation or current account deficit has increased exchange rate volatility in Turkey. The review of literature on the impact of exchange rate volatility on economic growth provides mixed results. The impact differs from developed to developing countries. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Turkey between 1998:Q1 and 2019:Q3. Methodology - This paper uses an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model to analyze the effect of exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Turkey. Volatility of exchange rate is calculated from the real effective exchange rate by using the GARCH (1,1) model. ARDL model and the bounds testing approach has some advantages over other conventional cointegration approaches. Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for autocorrelation and Ramsey RESET test for specification error were applied. One last diagnostic test of CUSUM and CUSUMSQ are used to check the stability of the short run and long run coefficient estimates. Findings- Estimation results of ARDL model show that real effective exchange rate volatility has a negative and highly statistically significant effect on economic growth in Turkey. From the long run coefficients export and investment have a significant positive effect on real GDP, import and exchange rate volatility have significant negative effect on real GDP. Conclusion- In order to ensure sustainable economic growth, it is necessary to strengthen the fiscal and financial structure and reduce the volatility in exchange rates. Financial deepening and fiscal discipline are very important in this respect. Changing the production structure and investing in education and high technology, increasing the domestic production of intermediate goods are also required for achieving high growth rates.

Export- Led Growth Hypothesis for Ghana: A TVAR & TVECM Analysis

This study employs threshold models to examine the export-led growth hypothesis (ELG) for Ghana from 1970-2018. The analysis commences as follows. Firstly, using real GDP as threshold variable, the study conducts a non-linearity test for the threshold vector autoregressive (TVAR) model as against the linear vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Secondly, the study evaluates whether the ELG hypothesis is best explained with linear co-integration models or threshold co-integration models. The empirical results indicate that, the ELG hypothesis is supported by the two-threshold vector autoregressive model (threshold values of 2.35 and 2.46) and a two-threshold vector error correction model (threshold values -0.50 and -0.20). The error correction term of the TVECM is negative and statistically different from zero, signifying speed of long run convergence. In terms of threshold co-integration, real GDP versus real exports and real GDP vs real imports are threshold co-integrated. In contrast, the null hypothesis of linear co-integration is not rejected for real export versus real import.

Vene valitsuse tollipoliitika 18. sajandi esimesel poolel ja selle rakendamine Narvas [Abstract: Customs Policies of the Russian Government in the first half of the Eighteenth Century and their Implementation in Narva

Vene valitsuse tollipoliitika 18. sajandi esimesel poolel ja selle rakendamine Narvas [Abstract: Customs Policies of the Russian Government in the first half of the Eighteenth Century and their Implementation in Narva

Dynamic Relationship Between Real Export, Real Import, Real Exchange Rate, Labor Force and Real Gross Domestic Product in Malaysia

This study examined short run and long run relationship between endogenous and exogenous variables. Specifically, it studied the relationship between real export, real import, labor force participation and real effective exchange rate (REER) and real GDP in Malaysia from 1988 to 2017. These variables were tested in various tests, namely, unit root test, granger causality test, vector autoregressive (VAR), Johansen Juselius test and Error Correction Term (ECT). The result revealed that all variables were non-stationary at the level form and stationary at first difference in ADF unit root test. The findings also exhibited the existence of bilateral relationships between real export and real GDP, real import and real GDP, as well as labor and real GDP. Nonetheless, there were no relationship found between REER and real GDP. On the other hand, in VAR, the lag optimum was lag 10 because it indicated the smallest value of AIC. Moreover, for Johansen Juselius cointegration test, it showed two cointegrated vector at both, 5% and 1%, level in trace test. In addition, Max-Eigen value test indicated two cointegrated vector at 0.05 and one cointegrated vector at 0.01. As for the Wald test, there were long run cointegration relationship between real GDP and its determinants, namely real export, real import, labor and REER. Apparently, Malaysia, as a small open economy, has relied heavily on foreign trade. Consequently, our domestic economic performance is susceptible to the changes in international markets and exchange rate. Therefore, suitable international policy implementation is vital to ensure Malaysian economy will be able to adjust to current global changes.