Real Household Income Research Articles

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Pesticide and Fertilizer Pollution on Household Income

In agricultural production, agricultural non-point source pollution threatens the safety of water supply and food safety, restricts the sustainable development of the agricultural economy and rural ecological environment, and is the bottleneck of agricultural development in China. To explore the impact of this situation on the real income of rural households, the paper is based on the data from China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) from 2014 to 2018. With the pollution status in agricultural production as the explanatory variable and the total value of household agricultural and sideline products as an explanatory variable, a fixed effect model was established to estimate the influence of fertilizer and pesticide application on labor income level. The results show that the income brought by pesticide and fertilizer input is low efficiency, and some farmers have achieved high yields with low input. In addition, the education level of the agricultural population and the size of the family had no significant effect on this. Considering the output problem, the application of pesticides and fertilizers is necessary, but the cognition that pesticides and fertilizers can increase crop yield and income makes the application of pesticides continue to increase, which is not conducive to the increase of agricultural output value. It is necessary to attach importance to new methods of increasing agricultural production based on the application of small amounts of fertilizers and pesticides and use technological reform and professional agricultural education to promote the rational use of pesticides and fertilizers and achieve rapid development of agriculture.

Evaluating the Policy Implications of Renewable Portfolio Standards on Grid Reliability in the United States: An Instrumental Variable Quantile Analysis

This paper investigates the influence of Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPSs) on the reliability of grids while considering key indicators, including the System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI), System Average Interruption Frequency Index (SAIFI), and Customer Average Interruption Duration Index (CAIDI), both without and with the inclusion of Major Event Days (MEDs). The study adopted the instrumental variable quantile regression (IVQR) method for estimation purposes. The first-stage 2SLS results confirm the robustness and validity of the instruments used, including the Democrats’ Participation Rate, Real Average Household Income, and Renewable Energy Capacity, which show strong relevance and satisfy the conditions of homogeneity. Our findings demonstrated that the adoption of RPS policies has significantly decreased the interruption of power in all of the considered quantiles. The impact is more potent in states facing more severe reliability challenges. The results proved the important role of the policies of RPSs in improving the stability of grids in the context of states having relatively poor reliability. In summary, the obtained findings demonstrate significant insights related to the policies of renewable energy in the resilience of infrastructure. Finally, the findings suggest that the government authorities should promote the RPS as a tool for enhancing the performance of grids in different states.

Achieving economy‐wide gains from residential energy efficiency improvements: The importance of timing and funding approach in driving the transition

AbstractResidential energy efficiency improvements are generally considered integral to achieving climate change targets. Alongside the primary benefits of reducing energy use and consumer bills, there is increasing policy interest in the potential for energy efficiency programmes to deliver economy‐wide gains, measured by gross domestic product, employment, household real incomes and spending power etc. Our previous research shows that such sustained gains are likely over time. Here, we consider how transitory outcomes are likely to be heavily influenced by the timing of actions and who pays, how and when. Insight in this regard is crucial for policy makers considering the mix and timing of measures to reach net zero outcomes that are economically as well as technically feasible. We consider alternative funding, distributions and timeframes for residential retrofitting costs and projects using a UK economy‐wide scenario simulation model. The key insight is that while government support for the provision of low‐cost finance options is strategically important in alleviating budget constraints and mitigating potential short‐term negative impacts on household spending, producer responses to the wind down of retrofitting spending can disrupt the adjustment of the economy. Here we identify pros and cons of different trajectories of action towards high‐level energy efficiency policy targets.

The impact of measured income uncertainty on Spanish household consumption at the end of the Great Recession

The aim of this paper is to study empirically the existence of precautionary saving in Spain at the end of the Great Recession using the micro data provided by the Spanish Survey of Household Finances. Using the panel component of these data, I construct a measure of income uncertainty for each household from the observed household real income and use it to test for the strength of precautionary saving. I find that an increase of 1% in the standard deviation of income reduces household consumption by 8.8% when using the logarithm of the household consumption as dependent variable; however, when using the ratio between consumption and average income as dependent variable, given the average normal income and consumption in the sample, consumption will decrease by 8.1%.

Has Intergenerational Progress Stalled? Income Growth Over Five Generations of Americans

We find that each of the past four generations of Americans was better off than the previous one, using a post-tax, post-transfer income measure constructed annually from 1963-2022 based on the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement. At age 36–40, Millennials had a real median household income that was 18 percent higher than that of the previous generation at the same age. This rate of intergenerational progress was slower than that experienced by the Silent Generation (34 percent) and Baby Boomers (27 percent), but similar to that experienced by Generation X (16 percent). Slower progress for Generation X and Millennials is due to their stalled growth in work hours—holding work hours constant, they experienced a greater intergenerational increase in real market income than Baby Boomers. Intergenerational progress for Millennials under age 30 has remained robust as well, although their income growth largely results from higher reliance on their parents. We also find that the higher educational costs incurred by younger generations is far outweighed by their lifetime income gains.

Living standards and quality of life in the EU: challenges of “new” reality

Over the past few years, the European economy and the social and labor sphere have been caught in the crossfire of rising energy and commodity prices, a shortage of skilled labor, and the increasing difficulty for many businesses and citizens to pay their bills amid falling real household incomes and the competitive advantages of goods and services production. The anti-Russian sanctions have put many European households on the brink of insolvency. At the same time, problems associated with the demographic transition, the transformation of industrial production and employment due to the digitalization of all kinds of activities, and changes in social standards have not disappeared. The consequences of the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the labor market, the level and quality of life of the population in a situation of uneven recovery of the European and world economy by regions, industries and forms of economic activity have not been fully overcome. The article analyses the state and prospects of the financial situation of European households against the background of a significant slowdown in economic growth, unprecedented inflation in the region and the efforts of the authorities to solve a complicated problem of overcoming the cost-of-living crisis in the EU.

Changes in real income of households in the Czech Republic due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Changes in real income of households in the Czech Republic due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Development Trends of the Market of Agricultural Lending to Households in Ukraine: Analysis of Consumer and Mortgage Loans

The purpose of the article is to assess the conditions and identify the features of the market for consumer and mortgage lending to households based on the economic and statistical analysis of the data panel. The instrumental and methodological apparatus of the article compiled general scientific principles and approaches to economic analysis: Scientific abstraction, analysis and synthesis, grouping, typology, comparison, qualitative and quantitative expert assessments; logical and contextual methods of processing theoretical material, as well as the method of economic and statistical comparisons. The article analyzes the dynamics of consumer and mortgage loans for households in Ukraine from 2007 to 2023, and highlights their socio-economic significance. The main problems in the field of consumer lending are formulated, the resolution of which is necessary for the intensive agricultural activity of households. It has been established that, despite the accumulation of certain experiences in the banking sector, the mortgage lending market has not become massive today. It is concluded that the reasons for this situation are the difficulty in the practical application of legislative regulations aimed at protecting the interests of creditors; high level of interest rates; low level of real income of households and, consequently, low effective demand for mortgage loans; the impossibility of mass provision of long-term mortgage loans due to high risk (interest, credit, legislative); almost complete exclusion of the state from participation in the formation of a civilized market for housing mortgage lending. The prerequisites for the further development of consumer and mortgage lending to households in Ukraine are formulated. The prospects for development and the main directions for improving consumer and mortgage lending to households are determined.

Collateral damage? Welfare effects of the Ukraine war on Pakistan

The 2022 Ukraine conflict has contributed to a major spike in international commodity prices. In this study, we conduct a top-down, macro-micro simulation analysis by combining Computable General Equilibrium simulations with data from the 2018–19 Pakistan Household Integrated Economic Survey to analyze the impact of global price shock to four major commodities, namely wheat, vegetable oil, petroleum, and fertilizers. We come up with evidence for a significant, non-negligible negative impact of the price shock, both at the aggregate and the household level: Real GDP shrinks and real household consumption and income decrease. The drop in consumption and income is more visible among farm households, with the two falling by 5% and 3.48% respectively. The consumption and income of the above-median income households fall more steeply, and income inequality decreases. The USD3.2 headcount poverty rate at the 2018 purchasing power parity increases by 1.15%. Urban households show the worst decline in food security, both in incidence and intensity. The role of petrol prices in driving poverty among rural farm households and that of food stuff (wheat and vegetable oil prices) in aggravating urban food security is particularly evident. These findings highlight the poverty and food security-worsening dimension of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.

Effect of Natural Gas Prices on Renewable Portfolio Standard Impacts

Climate policy in the United States is often carried out at the state level rather than the national level, including renewable portfolio standards for the electricity generation sector. We assess the impacts of the RPS in the State of Colorado, one of the first to be implemented, using a recursive dynamic CGE model CO-E. The RPS reduces real household income in the state by an annualized value of $134.8 million in 2025 if natural gas prices are low, but results in increased incomes with medium or high natural gas prices although with medium natural gas prices the RPS causes electricity prices to rise. The impacts of the RPS are negatively correlated with those of natural gas price shocks to the overall state economy. As a result, the RPS serves as a partial insurance policy for the State against natural gas price shocks, which adds $4.53 million to the annualized benefit of the policy.

Unraveling the Hispanic Health Paradox

In 2019, Hispanics in the US had a life expectancy advantage of 3.0 years and 7.1 years over non-Hispanic Whites and non-Hispanic Blacks, respectively, despite having real-household income values 26 percentage points lower than Non-Hispanic White households. Hispanics appear to have equal or even better health outcomes relative to non-Hispanic Whites across various health measures. This is known as the Hispanic health paradox. This paper underscores the importance of disaggregating Hispanics by ancestry and age profile when discussing the paradox across key health outcomes. It also provides an overview of the leading explanations, such as the salmon bias and the healthy immigrant effect. Further, it highlights the role of healthcare access and usage in this discussion. Ignoring these sources of bias have important consequences for how morbidity and mortality among Hispanics are measured within widely used national datasets.

Economic Stimulation of Household Business Activity in the Economy of Kazakhstan

The purpose of the scientific article is to study the problem of increasing the business activity of the rural population in the conditions of the «new» economy of Kazakhstan and to develop proposals for stimulating the economic activity of personal subsidiary farms. The use of classical methods of scientific cognition and literature review allowed us to study the theoretical foundations and reveal the economic essence of the categories of «business activity» regarding its applicability to the economy of the household. Based on the macroeconomic analysis, the main indicators and trends of the development of the economy of Kazakhstan were studied, the share of the agricultural economy in the country’s GDP was determined. It is revealed that the agricultural economy in the overall structure of the national economy can become a priority industry in the long term, which is justified by the effectiveness of the activities of agribusiness entities in conditions of developed competition. It is confirmed that 58% of the rural population are self-employed, and 46% of the population cannot provide for their basic needs, since the only source of income is transfer payments (social benefits) from the state budget. It is determined that the inflation rate has a significant impact on the real income of households. The model of economic stimulation of the business activity of personal subsidiary farms is presented, taking into account their peculiarities of formation and development as a form of agribusiness organization, which clearly affects the agricultural economy of Kazakhstan.

Estimating the economic impacts of improved wind speed forecasts in the United States electricity sector

Each year the U.S. government makes significant investments in improving weather forecast models. In this paper, we use a multidisciplinary approach to examine how utilities can benefit from improved wind-speed forecasts to more efficiently use wind-generated electricity and subsequently increase economic activity. Specifically, we examine how improvements to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's high-resolution rapid refresh model (HRRR) wind forecasts can provide (1) cost savings for utilities and (2) increase in real household income. To do so, we compare 12-h-ahead wind forecasts with real-time observations for two HRRR model transitions (i.e., when one model is operational, the other is being tested). We compare estimates of actual and predicted wind power under the publicly available and developmental models, with reduced forecast errors allowing for better utility decision-making and lower production costs. We then translate potential cost savings into electricity price changes, which are entered as exogenous shocks to eight regional computable general equilibrium models constructed for the U.S. Overall, we find that households would have seen a potential $60 million increase in real income for our sample (13% of all contiguous U.S. land-based turbine capacity), which had the updated HRRR models been in place during the two transition periods; applying our estimated savings for the sample of turbines to the entire array of turbines shows a potential real household income increase in approximately $384 million during these time frames.

ГОТЕЛЬНО-РЕСТОРАННИЙ БІЗНЕС В УКРАЇНІ: СУЧАСНИЙ СТАН ТА ПРОБЛЕМИ РОЗВИТКУ

The article finds that recently in the leading countries of the world, tourist services have become especially important, the quality of provision and development of which allows to increase budgets, create additional jobs and improve the international reputation. That is why it is advisable to pay special attention to the development of the tourism industry in Ukraine, which has a strong potential and natural and climatic conditions. It is determined that tourism is a branch of the national economy, the task of which is to create a tourist product. Tourism combines certain sectors, among which the hotel and restaurant industry is of particular importance, which is associated with the service of tourists, locals and other visitors and is focused on meeting the needs and anticipation of customer requests based on customer-oriented service. The current state of the hotel and restaurant business is studied on the basis of the analysis of the dynamics of the main indicators of the hotel market development and the share of domestic household spending on hotels and restaurants. As a result, it was found that the main factors influencing this area are GDP, inflation, unemployment, real household incomes, as well as socio-cultural and geopolitical factors. In addition, a significant challenge for the continued functioning of the entire tourism industry was the spread of the coronavirus, which became a destabilizing factor for the further growth of social production as a whole. According to the results of 2020, about 15% of hotels were closed, the number of foreign tourists decreased by almost 4 times, and the expenditures of Ukrainian households on restaurant and hotel services decreased by about 45%. In the new conditions of management, food establishments were forbidden to receive visitors, so they were forced to sell their products only for takeaway. Accordingly, the revival of hotels and other collective accommodation facilities has become possible as a result of partial easing of quarantine restrictions, active vaccination policies, the opening of a large number of laboratories to test for Covid-19, the gradual resumption of air travel and visa liberalization.

Policy-Driven Boom and Bust in the Housing Market: Evidence from Mongolia

This paper examines the effects of a mortgage interest rate subsidy on booms and busts in the housing market by analyzing the Housing Mortgage program in Mongolia. We find that the most recent housing boom in Mongolia occurred from the second quarter (Q2) of 2012 to first quarter (Q1) of 2014, and that the subsequent housing bust lasted 4 years. Both house-specific factors and macroeconomic variables had a significant influence on housing price dynamics. Mortgage interest rate semielasticity and real household income elasticity were estimated as −3 and 1.4, respectively. Dynamic analysis of the estimated vector error correction models suggests that the country’s policy intervention in the mortgage market—introducing an interest rate subsidy on mortgage loans for residential properties of up to 80 square meters—drove the recent housing boom in Mongolia.

Beyond the male breadwinner: Life‐cycle living standards of intact and disrupted English working families, 1260–1850

AbstractThis article provides a novel framework within which to evaluate real household incomes of predominantly rural working families of various sizes and structures in England in the years 1260–1850. We reject ahistorical assumptions about complete reliance on men's wages and male breadwinning, moving closer to reality by including women and children's contributions to family incomes. Our empirical strategy benefits from recent estimates of men's annual earnings, so avoiding the need to gross up day rates using problematic assumptions about days worked, and from new data on women and children's wages and labour inputs. A family life‐cycle approach which accommodates consumption smoothing through saving adds further breadth and realism. Moreover, the analysis embraces two historically common but often overlooked family types alternative to the traditional male‐breadwinner model: one where the husband is missing having died or deserted, and one where the husband is present but unwilling or unable to find work. Our framework suggests living standards varied widely by family structure and dependency ratio. Incorporating detailed demographic data available for 1560 onward suggests that small and intact families enjoyed high and rising living standards after 1700, while large or disrupted families depended on child labour and poor relief until c. 1830. A broader perspective on family structures informs understanding of the chronology and nature of poverty and coping strategies.

Does the US–China trade war increase poverty in a developing country? A dynamic general equilibrium analysis for Indonesia

In contrast to previous studies that mostly focused on the winners and losers of the US–China trade war, this study investigates the poverty and income distribution impact of the trade dispute in a developing country, using Indonesia as a case study. Employing a dynamic, computable general equilibrium model that is multi-region and multi-household, this study found that the trade war increases households’ real income and reduces poverty in Indonesia. The impact of the trade war, which is channeled into the Indonesian economy via trade diversion, improves the country’s terms of trade and eventually increases the returns of primary factors owned by households. However, Indonesia’s income inequality might increase as the rise in real income of upper-income households exceeds the rise in real income of lower-income households. The policy measures introduced by Indonesia to take advantage of the trade war might lower poverty incidence further and alter the impact of negative income distribution from the trade war.

Determinants of Household Poverty: The Case of Shashemene Town, Oromia, Ethiopia

Ethiopia is one of the world’s poorest countries by any standards. As a result government, multilateral agencies and other stakeholders consider poverty as their priority issues. This study is the study on determinants of urban poverty with the objective of identifying the poor from non poor households and main factors those push them to the poverty trap. Cost of Basic Needs (CBN) approach is used to calculate food poverty line and total poverty line respectively. Out of the 381 surveyed household heads, 170(44.62%) of them were found poor. A total of 381 respondents were included in the survey and the main data for the study was collected through structured questionnaire. Binary Logit model was employed to analyze the determinants of households’ poverty. Fourteen explanatory variables were taken in to account in the model’s equation. The result of logit regression using STATA13.1 software confirmed that nine variables were found statistically significant; age of households (1%), income of house hold head (1%), marital status of households(1%), house tenure of households(1%), household family size (1%), households employment status(1%),educational level of households(5%),access to credit(5%) and saving(10%). From these significant variables; age of households, households’ family size, households’ marital status and households housing tenure were positively correlated with probability of being poor. While households education, households income, households saving, households employment status and households access to credits were negatively correlated with probability of being poor. Two sample t-test and chi-squared test was employed to compare non-poor and poor. The poverty head count ratio is extensive among the surveyed households that calls for urgent interventions aimed at solving the problems of the poor. Hence efforts should be made to increase the real income of households through well paying and better job creation by the set up of micro and small scale enterprises, with the increased provision of economic and social infrastructure. Thus, stakeholder interventions to tackle the determinant factors are important measures to be undertaken. Keywords: Poverty, Household, Logit Model, Shashemene, Ethiopia DOI: 10.7176/JESD/12-7-01 Publication date: April 30 th 2021

Analysis of the Viability of Fiscal and Monetary Policies on the Recovery of Household Consumption Expenditures Because of the Covid-19 Pandemic

The Covid-19 outbreak disrupted economic activity in almost all countries. The Indonesian economy entered a recession phase as a result of the continued contraction in economic growth in the second and third quarters of 2020. According to Keynesian economic theory, the combination of fiscal policy and monetary policy was more effective in recovering the economy from the crisis, this study aims to measure the effect of government spending, money supply, inflation and interest rates on aggregate household consumption expenditure. This study used a quantitative method, using monthly time series data from January 2015 to December 2020. The data were analyzed using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results show that government spending has a negative impact on household aggregate expenditure in the long run meanwhile interest rate has a positive impact on household consumption expenditure. Inflation do not affect aggregate household consumption expenditure, both in the short and long term. The results of the analysis are useful for evaluating the policies taken by the government to overcome the economic crisis due to the spread of the Covid-19 outbreak. The government increases aggregate expenditure to cover the decline in household aggregate consumption expenditure due to a decrease in household real income. Then expansionary monetary policy in the long run will increase aggregate demand. Therefore, the Ministry of Finance together with Bank Indonesia needs to design other policies that will have a positive impact on economic recovery in the short term. This study has not included other macro indicators that affect household consumption expenditures such as unemployment, taxes and the household marginal propensity to saving (MPS).
 
 Keywords: Household Aggregate Expenditure; Government Expenditure; Inflation; VECM

Macroeconomic Misery by Levels of Income in America

Thirty years of distributional data are used to study the short-term impacts of popular macroeconomic indicators on real household incomes from the poorest to the richest Americans. The appropriate weights on unemployment versus inflation vary across the distribution. The unemployment rate matters at all levels, but especially so for the poorest. Inflation rates matter at middle incomes, though Okun’s famous Misery Index only performs well for the top income groups. GDP growth matters at all levels and proportionately more for the poorest, though only via the unemployment rate. Recessions are poverty-increasing, and skewness-decreasing, but with ambiguous effects on overall inequality. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.