Representative Concentration Pathways Research Articles

How climate change and groundwater extraction will shape the global terrestrial water cycle pattern

Human groundwater extraction alters hydrological processes, thereby influencing climate through land–atmosphere interactions. As socioeconomic development progresses, the escalating water demand exacerbates conflicts with limited water resources. Nevertheless, potential response of the global terrestrial water cycle to the combined impact of climate change and groundwater extraction under various future scenarios remain vaguely understood. Therefore, this study developed human water regulation projection schemes based on Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) integrated into a global climate model (CAS-FGOALS-g3). The results show that global water demand in 2100 under the SSP370 scenario almost doubled relative to 2010. The proportion of surface soil drying due to warming is 3%-11% more in the medium- and high-emission scenarios than in the low one. In major irrigated areas, excessive groundwater extraction changed the groundwater storage trend, especially in the Southern Plains of the United States, where the increasing groundwater storage trend became negative compared to scenarios without groundwater extraction. This study underscores the complex interplay between human water use and hydroclimate within an evolving environment, emphasizing the critical need for effective water resource management to mitigate future water stress.

Sustainable urban planning to control flood exposure in the coastal zones of China

ContextSustainable development in coastal zones faces escalating flood risk in the context of climate change and urbanization, and the rapid urban growth in flood zones has been one of the key drivers. Therefore, understanding the Urban Exposure to Flooding (UEF) and its future scenarios is important in coastal zones.ObjectivesThe objectives of this study were: (1) to assess the future dynamics of UEFs in China's coastal zones, and (2) to identify a sustainable way of urban planning in controlling the growth of UEFs.MethodsFuture UEFs in coastal China were assessed during 2020–2050 by combining urban expansion model, scenario analysis, and flood exposure assessment. Alternative scenarios were considered of shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), representative concentration pathways (RCPs), strategies of urban planning.ResultsThe results show that the 1000-year flood UEFs along coastal China was expected to grow under SSP2-RCP4.5 from 9,879 km2 in 2020 to 13,424 (12,997–13,981) km2 in 2050, representing an increment of 35.88% (31.56%–41.52%). Alternatively, the strategy of sustainable development planning could reduce the newly added UEF by 16.98% (15.63%–18.67%) in a 1000-year flood scenario.ConclusionsThe findings proved that the ways of urban growth matters in terms of affecting food exposure and risk and flood risk should be incorporated into urban planning for a sustainable landscape. The study could offer methodology and support for sustainable development strategies in reducing future urban flood risk.

Impacts of fire prevention strategies in a changing climate: an assessment for Portugal

Abstract Climate change poses a formidable strain on societies worldwide, demanding viable and timely adaptation measures to ensure future prosperity while avoiding the impact of more frequent and intense extreme events, like wildfires, that affect all continents and biomes, leaving authorities grappling to respond effectively. Here, we focus on mainland Portugal that is inserted in the Mediterranean climate change hotspot and investigate the impact of different adaptation strategies on wildfire risk. Relying on an ensemble of regional climate models from the EURO-CORDEX initiative, we project Fire Weather Index (FWI) and Fire Radiative Power (FRP) for various Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).
Our findings reveal that very energetic fires, with energy release exceeding 1000 MW, may increase up to more than three-fold, depending on the RCP. Even under strong mitigation scenarios, the likelihood of having megafires increases by 1.5-fold. This underscores the need for proactive adaptation regardless of mitigation efforts.
We present three different ignition avoidance strategies under different climate change scenarios. For all cases results indicate that a reduction between 20 and 60% is achievable for intense wildfires (above 1000 MW).

Climate change and C4 and C3 grasses in a midlatitude dryland steppe.

Climate change is projected to alter the structure of plant communities due to increasing temperatures and changes to precipitation patterns, particularly in midlatitude dryland ecosystems. Modifications to climatic suitability may lead to major community changes such as altered dominant plant functional types. Previous studies have indicated that climatic suitability is likely to increase for C4 grasses and decrease for C3 grasses in the Western United States. However, if no C4 grass species currently exist to serve as a propagule source, expansion into areas of increased suitability will be limited. We conducted a field and modeling study in the Upper Green River Basin (UGRB) of Western Wyoming to determine if (1) C4 grasses are present to provide a propagule source and (2) C4 grasses are likely to increase in importance relative to C3 grasses due to climatic changes. We searched 44 sites for C4 grasses to establish presence, and modeled suitability at 35 sites using 17 Global Climate Models, two greenhouse gas Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; 4.5 and 8.5), and two time periods (mid- and late century; 2030-2060 and 2070-2099, respectively). We found C4 grasses at 10 of the 44 sites, indicating that there is a present propagule source. Our model projected increases in suitability for both C3 and C4 grasses across sites for all RCPs and time periods. In the mid-century RCP 4.5 scenario, the C3 functional type increased in projected biomass in 29 of 35 sites, and the C4 type increased in 31 sites. In this scenario, C3 grasses increased in projected biomass by a median 4 g m-2 (5% change), and C4 grass biomass increased by a median 8 g m-2 (21% change). Our study suggests that climate change will increase climatic suitability for grasses across the UGRB, and that all requirements are in place for C4 grasses to increase in abundance.

Water-suitable reclamation can mitigate the amplified agricultural water stress driven by climate change in arid inland basin

The escalation of water scarcity poses a significant challenge to the sustainability of irrigated agriculture in arid regions, with climate change further amplifying the unpredictability of water resources for agricultural purposes. Despite the critical nature of this issue, there is a lack of research identifying effective adaptation strategies and establishing water-suitable thresholds for agricultural development. This study modified a conventional approach for estimating irrigation water use (IWU) in the Heihe agricultural area of Northwest China, integrating the distributed hydrological components of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. It modeled IWU and surface water availability across three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and conducted an extensive analysis of agricultural water scarcity for the period 2021–2050. The study established threshold levels for water-suitable agricultural development based on predicted local water resource conditions. Findings suggested a trend towards warmer and wetter conditions in the Heihe agricultural area over the next three decades. The anticipated average IWU, predicted by five general circulation models (GCMs), was expected to reach 26.785 × 108 m3 (RCP2.6), 26.827 × 108 m3 (RCP4.5), and 26.865 × 108 m3 (RCP8.5). These projections indicated an increase of 0.815 × 108 m3, 0.857 × 108 m3, and 0.895 × 108 m3, respectively, in comparison to the historical period spanning from 1985 to 2014. Streamflow was anticipated to diminish by 0.28 × 108 m3 (RCP2.6), 0.46 × 108 m3 (RCP4.5), and 0.23 × 108 m3 (RCP8.5). The predicted agricultural water scarcity index (WSI) was 1.764 (RCP2.6), 1.789 (RCP4.5), and 1.763 (RCP8.5), indicating a worsening of agricultural water use shortages due to climate change. The study identified controlling the scale of cultivation as the most effective adaptation strategy, recommending that water-suitable agricultural reclamation in the Heihe agricultural area be confined to 25 × 104 ha. This research offers a comprehensive assessment of future water security in an arid inland basin, providing valuable insights into the sustainable development of global irrigated agriculture and adaptation strategies in response to climate change.

Evaluating changes in flood frequency due to climate change in the Western Cape, South Africa

AbstractThis study assesses the impact of climate change on flood frequency across seven sites in the Western Cape province of South Africa. The calibrated Water Resources Simulation Model (WRSM)/Pitman hydrological model was run using precipitation inputs from two representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) using a combination of eight global circulatory models (GCM) for the two periods (2030–2060 and 2070–2100). GCMs were statistically downscaled using the delta change (DC), linear scaling (LS) and quantile delta mapping (QDM) approaches. Average daily discharge was estimated from each downscaled daily precipitation dataset using the Pitman/WRSM model with the Fuller and Sangal estimation methods used to calculate daily instantaneous peak flows. Flood frequency curves (FFC) were generated using the annual maximum series (AMS) for the GCM ensemble mean and individual GCMs for the return periods between 2 and 100 years. FFCs generated based on LS and QDM downscaling methods were aligned for the GCM ensemble mean in terms of the direction of FFCs. Further analysis was conducted using outputs based on the QDM approach, given its suitability in projecting peak flows. Under this method, both Fuller and Sangal FFCs exhibited a decreasing trend across the Jonkershoek and Little Berg River sites; however, estimated quantiles for low-probability events were higher under the Fuller method. This study noted the variation in FFCs from individual GCMs compared to the FFC representing the GCM ensemble mean. Further research on climate change flood frequency analysis (FFA) in South Africa should incorporate other advanced downscaling and instantaneous peak flow estimation (IPF) methods.

Withdrawn: Forecasting water scarcity with an optimized Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, Cen Li, Xin Guo, Liping Chen, Majid Khayatnezhad and Fatemeh Gholinia, Water Supply ws2024085, https://dx.doi.org/10.2166/ws.2024.085

Withdrawn: Forecasting water scarcity with an optimized Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, Cen Li, Xin Guo, Liping Chen, Majid Khayatnezhad and Fatemeh Gholinia, <i>Water Supply</i> ws2024085, https://dx.doi.org/10.2166/ws.2024.085

Projecting LUCC dynamics and ecosystem services in an emerging urban agglomeration under SSP-RCP scenarios and their management implications

Improving our knowledge of future dynamics of ecosystem services (ESs) in the face of climate change and human activities provides a crucial foundation to navigate complex environmental challenges, which are essential to attaining sustainable development particularly in urban regions. However, an existing dearth persists in thoroughly forecasting the intricate interplay of trade-offs and synergies, as well as ecosystem services bundling under distinct future scenarios. This study adopts an integrated research framework to understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of ESs in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Urban Agglomeration (CZTUA) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway and Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios (i.e., SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585). Our future scenarios suggest that the core urban area of CZTUA is projected to expand at the cost of forests and croplands by 2050. Furthermore, human-induced urbanization, particularly the high-intensity LUCC along the Xiangjiang river, significantly impacts ESs, resulting in lower ESs values. The trade-off effects between ESs are primarily observed between WY (water yield) and other ESs. Ecosystem service bundles (ESB) previously dominated by WY have significantly transitioned to CS (carbon storage)-HQ (habitat quality) bundle, especially in the urban core of CZTUA, which serves as an early warning of potential challenges related to water resources. Our study utilizes the latest climate and land use change predictions to evaluate ecosystems in urban agglomerations, and adopts a layered zoning strategy based on ESs, which provides decision-makers with reproducible tools to explore ecosystem changes.

Rainfall projections under different climate scenarios over the Kaduna River Basin, Nigeria

This research aimed to assess changes in mean and extreme rainfall within the Kaduna River Basin (KRB), specifically examining the implications of two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)—4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Employing a quantile mapping technique, this study corrected inherent biases in four Regional Climate Models, enabling the examination of mean precipitation and six indices capturing extreme precipitation events for the 2050s. These findings were compared against a historical reference period spanning from 1981 to 2010, considering the basin's upstream and downstream segments. Results revealed an average annual rainfall reduction under scenarios 4.5 (21.39%) and 8.5 (20.51%) across the basin. This decline exhibited a more pronounced impact on monthly rainfall during the wet season (April to October) compared to the dry season (November to March). Notably, a substantial decrement in wet indices, excluding consecutive wet days (CWD), was foreseen in both seasons for the upstream and downstream areas, signalling an impending drier climate. The anticipated rise in consecutive dry days (CDD) is poised to manifest prominently downstream attributed to global warming-induced climate change brought on by increased anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. These findings accentuate a heterogeneous distribution of extreme rainfall, potentially leading to water scarcity issues throughout the KRB, especially impacting upstream users. Moreover, the projections hint at an increased risk of flash floods during intense wet periods. Consequently, this study advocates the implementation of targeted disaster risk management strategies within the KRB to address these foreseeable challenges.

Assessing the winter indoor environment with different comfort metrics in self-built houses of hot-humid areas: Does undercooling matter for the elderly?

Thermal comfort in housing is vital for well-being. Despite hot and humid regions experiencing shorter cold periods compared to heatwaves, vulnerable populations are susceptible to threats from cold snaps. However, existing research overlooks undercooling risks in hot regions during winter. This study examines self-built houses in densely populated, hot and humid areas, mainly occupied by elderly residents. We conducted an on-site measurement recording hourly indoor air temperature, humidity, and black globe temperature during wintertime. Two thermal comfort metrics (aPMV and adaptive regression model) and two resilience metrics (SET degree-hour, Hours of Safety) were used to quantify thermal conditions during cold periods under current and future climate conditions. The results show that undercooling hours in recent years exceed 90 % of wintertime using aPMV index and adaptive regression models. Under future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways), undercooling hours only decrease by 10 %–25 % from 2020 to 2100 across all metrics. Extreme cold events in 2018 saw SET degree-hours double the thermal resilience threshold, while they pose health risks to the elderly for up to 21 days according to the HOS metrics. This study aims to identify the importance of addressing winter thermal comfort in hot and humid regions and to assess the risk posed by cold snaps to vulnerable populations. By quantifying these risks, the study contributes to better decision-making regarding hot-humid region housing thermal retrofit strategies for architects, engineers, and other stakeholders.

The biological and preformed carbon pumps in perpetually slower and warmer oceans

Abstract. The marine carbon cycle is vitally important for climate and the fertility of the oceans. However, predictions of future biogeochemistry are challenging because a myriad of processes need parameterization and the future evolution of the physical ocean state is uncertain. Here, we embed a data-constrained model of the carbon cycle in slower and warmer ocean states as simulated under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (RCP: Representative Concentration Pathway) scenarios for the 2090s and frozen in time for perpetuity. Focusing on steady-state changes from preindustrial conditions allows us to capture the response of the system integrated over all the timescales of the steady-state biogeochemistry, as opposed to typical transient simulations that capture only sub-centennial timescales. We find that biological production experiences only modest declines (of 8 %–12 %) because the reduced nutrient supply due to a more sluggish circulation and strongly shoaled mixed layers is counteracted by warming-stimulated growth. Organic-matter export declines by 15 %–25 % due to reductions in both biological production and export ratios, the latter being driven by warming-accelerated shallow respiration and reduced subduction of dissolved organic matter. The perpetual-2090s biological pump cycles a 30 %–70 % larger regenerated inventory accumulated over longer sequestration times, while preformed DIC is shunted away from biological utilization to outgassing. The regenerated and preformed DIC inventories both increase by a similar magnitude. We develop a conceptually new partitioning of preformed DIC to quantify the ocean's preformed carbon pump and its changes. Near-surface paths of preformed DIC are more important in the slower circulations, as weakened ventilation isolates the deep ocean. Thus, while regenerated DIC cycling becomes slower, preformed DIC cycling speeds up.

Impacts of climate change and variability on drought characteristics and challenges on sorghum productivity in Babile District, Eastern Ethiopia

ABSTRACT Examining the characteristics of drought indices in the context of climate variability and change, particularly in semi-arid water-stressed regions, requires adaptation. Observed climate data of the Babile station from 1980 to 2009 were used as a baseline for climate projection. Future climate projection was established under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) climate scenarios for the 21st century. Two drought indices, namely standard precipitation index and standard evapotranspiration index (SPI and SPEI) were employed based on temperature and rainfall to characterize droughts. Our study revealed that drought severity and intensity are more likely to increase under RCP4.5 climate forcing in the middle of the 21st century. While the average drought severity (S) were 1.1, 1.53, 1.55, and 1.8 in SPEI 3-month time scale; 1.51, 2.1, 2.38, and 2.29 in SPEI 4-month time scale; and 2.15, 2.77, 3.44, and 2.91 in SPEI 6-month time scale, whereas, the drought severity (S) were 1.33, 1.37, and 1.79 in SPEI 3-month time scale; 1.79, 2.05, and 2.19 in SPEI 4-month time scale; and 2.47, 3.19, and 2.69 in SPEI 6-month time scale in observed, near, mid and end of the 21st century under RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. High drought frequency occurrences and unprecedented severity under RCP4.5, which is highly likely to negatively impacted sorghum crop productivity and recommended for further instructive and practical soil water conservation to drought management in the study area.

Assessing the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Drought in Uzbekistan: Findings from RCP and SSP Scenarios

Future climate change and its impact on drought is critical for Uzbekistan, located in Central Asia, the world’s largest arid zone. This study examines the evolving intensity of climate change and drought events using multi-model ensembles (MMEs) derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6) simulated under the Representative Concentration Pathway and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (RCP and SSP) scenarios. The projections show different rates of increase in temperature and precipitation under the RCPs and SSPs. Projected temperature increases are expected to reach up to 2–2.5 °C under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0, by mid-century. By 2080–2099, an increase is projected of 2–3 °C in monthly mean temperatures throughout the year (SSP1-2.6), and a more pronounced increase in summer up to 3–4 °C (SSP2-4.5) and 4–6 °C (SSP3-7.0), with a marked contrast in conditions between the mountainous and desert regions of Uzbekistan. Regional changes in precipitation over the study periods show relatively little variability, except for FD, where notable trends are found. Under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5, the increase in precipitation is relatively modest, whereas the changes in SSP3-7.0 are more substantial, with some regions experiencing variations of up to 10–20 mm per period. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), calculated based on the projected temperature and precipitation, provides an estimate of future drought trends. Our results show increasing aridity under all scenarios by mid-century, with longer-term projections indicating stabilization around different SPEI values by 2100: RCP2.6 and SSP1-1.9 stabilize around −1.0; RCP4.5, RCP6.0, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0 stabilize around −1.5; while RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios project values of −2 or less by 2100. Notable differences in the SPEI index are found between lowland and foothill regions. In view of Uzbekistan’s heavy reliance on agriculture and irrigation, which are the sectors that are expected to be mostly affected by climate change, our study provides a scientific basis for informed policy decision-making. This includes various aspects such as planning and management water resources, as well as the broader socioeconomic development of the country.

Estimating terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage change in the YREB caused by land-use change under SSP-RCPs scenarios

Terrestrial ecosystems, as an essential carbon sink of atmospheric CO2, play an important role in balancing the global carbon cycle. Land-use and land-cover changes (LUCCs) are the major factors in terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage (TECS) change. However, they are not yet sure how future LUCCs would affect the TECS in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) to meet China's carbon-neutral goal. We simulated eight land-use change scenarios and used these to estimate the YREB's TECS and its 2020–2060 variation by coupling the spatially explicit projections of LUCCs under the latest IPCC, combining shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) with datasets on terrestrial ecosystem carbon density dataset. Results show that: 1) the total TECS of the YREB in 2020 is ∼28.07 Gt. Spatially, TECS in the YREB focused on Sichuan and Yunnan (∼13.35 Gt), which plays a crucial role in balancing the regional carbon cycle; its losses are in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Hunan provinces; Yunnan is the potential region with future carbon sink enhancement in the YREB. 2) Compared to the TECS change under eight land-use scenarios, the low-carbon and sustainable development pathways are the priority chosen by humans. 3) The replacement of vast forest land with cropland and urban expansion are the key factor of TECS change in the YREB. 4) Land management policies (i.e., Cultivated land requisition-compensation balance) should balance the conflicts between food self-sufficiency and the carbon sink rather than only the dynamic balance in quantity. Our study aims to provide data support for the government in planning future development pathways and refining carbon emission reduction strategies to assist in carbon trading and compensation and achieve the YREB's dual-carbon goal.

Forecasting Future Vegetation Dynamics under SSP/RCP Pathways under Spatially Changing Climate and Human Activities Conditions

Vegetation dynamics result from the interaction between human activities and climate change. Numerous studies have investigated the contributions of human activities and climate change to vegetation cover dynamics using statistical methods. However, these studies have not focused much on the spatially non-stationary effects of human activities on vegetation cover changes and future trends. Taking the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) area as the case study area, it was divided into 32 combinations by considering the spatially varying effects of five factors related to human activity and climate change, including gross domestic product (GDP), population, land use change, precipitation, and temperature. Regression in terms of pixels was then performed for each combination at the pixel scale. The result showed that from 2001 to 2020, the annual average normalized digital vegetation index (NDVI) in the TGR area exhibited an upward trend (slope = 0.0051, p &lt; 0.01), with the mean NDVI increasing from 0.53 to 0.64. Compared with the regression with climate variables, the proposed model improved the R2 value from 0.2567 to 0.6484, with the p-value in the t-test reduced from 0.2579 to 0.0056. It indicated that changes in vegetation were dominated by human activities and climate change in 48.77% and 3.19% of the TGR area, respectively, and 43.70% of the vegetation coverage was dominated by both human activities and climate change. This study also predicted the future NDVI according to the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It suggests that, assuming future regional policies are the same as the historical policies in the TGR, the SSP5–8.5 scenario would have the highest and fastest growth in average NDVI, with the average NDVI increasing from 0.68 to 0.89, because of the large increase in the GDP, lower population in this scenario, and adequate hydrothermal conditions.

Assessment of Arctic sea ice simulations in cGENIE model and projections under RCP scenarios

Simulating and predicting Arctic sea ice accurately remains an academic focus due to the complex and unclear mechanisms of Arctic sea ice variability and model biases. Meanwhile, the relevant forecasting and monitoring authorities are searching for models to meet practical needs. Given the previous ideal performance of cGENIE model in other fields and notable features, we evaluated the model’s skill in simulating Arctic sea ice using multiple methods and it demonstrates great potential and combined advantages. On this basis, we examined the direct drivers of sea-ice variability and predicted the future spatio-temporal changes of Arctic sea ice using the model under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. Further studies also found that Arctic sea ice concentration shows large regional differences under RCP 8.5, while the magnitude of the reduction in Arctic sea ice thickness is generally greater compared to concentration, showing a more uniform consistency of change.

Podnebne projekcije temperature zraka in padavin za porečja Ledave, Pesnice in Vipave do konca 21. stoletja

As part of the project ‚CeVoTak‘, Integrated Management of Small Water Retention and Soil Erosion Prevention Measures in Agricultural Catchments, we studied changing temperature and precipitation conditions up to the year 2100. The study was conducted on agricultural lands in the catchments of the Ledava and Pesnica rivers in the sub-Pannonian region and the Vipava river in the sub-Mediterranean region. A common climate database was used to create the climate projections - RCM (Regional Climate Model) simulations from the project EURO-CORDEX and scenarios RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway), RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. The projections were prepared for three time periods 2011-2040; 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 for 6 different regional climate models for average, minimum and maximum air temperatures and precipitation. Analysis of the ensemble of model simulations for all scenarios shows similar results for the basin of all rivers, an increase in temperature (maximum in winter, minimum in spring), with high confidence for all scenarios and periods. Projections of precipitation are less reliable, but show an increase in annual precipitation due to the winter increase. The use of climate change projections with expert interpretation is essential for determining the vulnerability of individual areas and building resilience through the implementation of climate change adaptation.

A missing link in the carbon cycle: phytoplankton light absorption under RCP emission scenarios

Abstract. Marine biota and biogeophysical mechanisms, such as phytoplankton light absorption, have attracted increasing attention in recent climate studies. Under global warming, the influence of phytoplankton on the climate system is expected to change. Previous studies analyzed the impact of phytoplankton light absorption under prescribed future atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, the role of this biogeophysical mechanism under freely evolving atmospheric CO2 concentration and future CO2 emissions remains unknown. To shed light on this research gap, we perform simulations with the EcoGEnIE Earth system model (ESM) and prescribe CO2 emissions out to the year 2500 following the four Extended Concentration Pathway (ECP) scenarios, which for practical purposes we call Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Under all RCP scenarios, our results indicate that phytoplankton light absorption leads to a shallower remineralization of organic matter and a reduced export efficiency, weakening the biological carbon pump. In contrast, this biogeophysical mechanism increases the surface chlorophyll by ∼ 2 %, the sea surface temperature (SST) by 0.2 to 0.6 °C, the atmospheric CO2 concentrations by 8 %–20 % and the atmospheric temperature by 0.3 to 0.9 °C. Under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 scenarios, the magnitude of changes due to phytoplankton light absorption is similar. However, under the RCP8.5 scenario, the changes in the climate system are less pronounced due to decreasing ecosystem productivity as temperature increases, highlighting a reduced effect of phytoplankton light absorption under strong warming. Additionally, this work highlights the major role of phytoplankton light absorption on the climate system, suggesting highly uncertain feedbacks on the carbon cycle with uncertainties that may be in the range of those known from the land biota.

Predicting Land Use Changes under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway–Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios to Support Sustainable Planning in High-Density Urban Areas: A Case Study of Hangzhou, Southeastern China

Amidst the challenges posed by global climate change and accelerated urbanization, the structure and distribution of land use are shifting dramatically, exacerbating ecological and land-use conflicts, particularly in China. Effective land resource management requires accurate forecasts of land use and cover change (LUCC). However, the future trajectory of LUCC, influenced by climate change and urbanization, remains uncertain. This study developed an integrated multi-scenario framework by combining system dynamics and patch-generating land use simulation models to predict future LUCC in high-density urban regions under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)–Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The results showed the following: (1) From 2020 to 2050, cultivated land, unused land, and water are projected to decrease, while construction land is expected to increase. (2) Future land use patterns exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity across three scenarios. Construction land will expand in all districts of Hangzhou, particularly in the main urban areas. Under the SSP585 scenario, the expansion of construction land is most significant, while it is the least under the SSP126 scenario. (3) Distinct factors drive the expansion of different land use types. The digital elevation model is the predominant factor for the expansion of forest and grassland, contributing 19.25% and 30.76%, respectively. Night light contributes the most to cultivated land and construction land, at 13.94% and 20.35%, respectively. (4) The average land use intensity (LUI) in central urban districts markedly surpasses that in the surrounding suburban areas, with Xiacheng having the highest LUI and Chun’an the lowest. Under the SSP126 scenario, the area with increased LUI is significantly smaller than under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. These findings offer valuable guidance for sustainable planning and built environment management in Hangzhou and similarly situated urban centers worldwide.

Climate change impacts on magnitude and frequency of urban floods under scenario and model uncertainties

Many studies have confirmed that climate change leads to frequent urban flooding, which can lead to significant socioeconomic repercussions. However, most existing studies have not evaluated the impacts of climate change on urban flood from both event-scale and annual-scale dimensions. In addition, there are only few studies that simultaneously consider scenario and model uncertainties of climate change, and combine flood risk assessment and uncertainty analysis results to provide practical suggestions for urban drainage system management. This study uses the statistical downscaling method to calculate the design rainfall under ten rainfall return periods of four climate models and three climate change scenarios in 2040s, 2060s, and 2080s in various prefecture-level cities in China. The four climate models are HadGEM2- ES, MPI-ESM-MR, NorESM1-M and FGOALS-g2 models and the three climate change scenarios are constructed by different representative concentration pathways (RCP), namely RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. On this basis, relying on the generated drainage systems using geographical information and other data, event-scale and annual-scale precipitation are combined to calculate the change ratio of annual flood volume expectation in prefecture-level cities in each future year compared with the current situation. Furthermore, the study evaluates scenario and model uncertainties of climate change, and then comprehensively integrates the flood risk and its uncertainties to provides suggestions for urban drainage system management.