Rational Decision Theory Research Articles

Analisis Daya Pikir Masyarakat Dalam Pengambilan Keputusan Guna Menangkal Berita Hoax Mengenai Pemilihan Umum 2024

Indonesia will hold general elections to elect the president in 2024. Hoax news regarding the election cannot be avoided. The spread of hoaxes is increasingly widespread due to laws that are not yet effective, the use of online media that is not balanced by the abilities of the users, and a lack of public literacy. This research aims to provide solutions in reviewing and developing people’s thinking in overcoming and responding to the challenges of hoax information related to elections and future political issues that are more complex. This research used qualitative methods and data collection techniques through literature studies. This paper uses Herbert Simon’s theory of rational decision making which shows three steps in decision making, namely identifying problems, finding and developing alternative solutions, selecting and choosing each alternative solution. The result of this research is that problem the spread of election hoax news aims to reduce public trust in election management institutions, election participants, and the government. The author provides several solutions that the public can use as a basis for making decisions regarding the circulation of hoax news, namely: (1) self-criticism; (2) increasing digital literacy; (3) involvement of community leaders; and (4) participatory political education. The author chose the second solution, namely increasing digital literacy, as a solution to minimizing the spread of hoaxes. Digital literacy is the basis for other solutions that can help people develop skills for selecting news on social media.

Rational satisficing heuristics as determinants of online search behavior

We design a set of satisficing heuristic algorithms that mimic the online information retrieval behavior of rational decision makers (DMs) as reflected in their click through rates (CTRs). We illustrate how basic heuristic algorithms formalizing binary decision trees composed by 21 nodes and requiring DMs to observe one satisficing alternative lack the structural capacity to characterize the retrieval process. The algorithm requiring DMs to observe two satisficing alternatives –formalizing binary decision trees composed by 111 nodes – provides a sufficient approximation to their CTRs. Adding a third alternative – accounting for 351 nodes – delivers an almost identical set of CTRs to those displayed by DMs. The mimicking quality of the heuristic algorithms prevails as alternatives are added up to include the ten ranked within the first page of search results, incorporating 2,047 nodes to formalize the corresponding retrieval process. The set of algorithms bridges the gap between purely rational decision theory and heuristic behavior, illustrating how the CTRs observed can be generated by rational DMs performing a sequential search process while aiming to observe two or three satisficing alternatives. The decision-tree algorithmic structures presented are sufficiently malleable to introduce any potential modification to the beliefs and preferences of DMs and study its consequences in terms of CTRs.

The moral economies of natural disasters insurance: solidarity or individual responsibility?

ABSTRACT Over the second half of the twentieth century, the moral economy of insurance has shifted from solidarity and mutual support to individual responsibility. In this context, the French regime for the protection against natural catastrophes that took shape in the 1980s exemplifies a strong and almost anachronical political will to foster solidarity at the national level, thus questioning the moral economy of responsibility. This paper offers a textual analysis of the official debates that led to the launch of the regime. It shows how the representatives chose to separate compensation, financed by equal individual participation, from state prevention. This contrasts with other schemes worldwide that rely on rational decision theory to situate the responsibility for prevention at the individual level. In this alternative, risk-based premiums play a theoretically crucial role in risk signals. In practice, however, they lead to affordability issues while failing to govern prevention as theoretically expected. With the climate crisis exacerbating this phenomenon, the examination of the French regime thus allows to fruitfully revive other moral economies of insurance.

Gender and Risk Aversion: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

The theoretical literature on risk aversion and Expected Utility Theory is extensive; however, the analysis of this behaviour with natural experiments could be more comprehensive. In this paper, we use data from 120 episodes of the Portuguese version of the TV game show The Price is Right, namely from The Wheel game, to explore risk aversion as well as the impact of gender in decision-making. The Wheel game has straightforward rules and huge expected payoffs. All contestants have access to the same information and distributions of uncertainty, making it a unique field laboratory to conduct an experimental test of rational decision theory. The objective is to infer the risk aversion levels of decision-makers from their choice to turn the wheel and the influence of gender on risk attitudes. There is a widespread view that women are more risk-averse than men. However, we could not reject the hypothesis that women and men have the same level of risk aversion. Nevertheless, we have evidence that contestants are more risk-averse than risk-seeking. The omission bias, loss aversion and regret can explain that behaviour.

ГІБРИДНИЙ ПІДХІД ДО УПРАВЛІННЯ ЕКОНОМІЧНОЮ СТІЙКІСТЮ ПІДПРИЄМСТВ В КРИЗОВИЙ ПЕРІОД

In today's rapidly changing world, where the degree of uncertainty is extremely high and there are situations of true uncertainty, traditional decision-making methods based on the assumption of predictability of the future must be supplemented by new and alternative decision-making models. The rational approach to decision-making, which originated in neoclassical economics, has the right to exist in conditions where it is possible to assess the probability of options for the development of events and access to sufficient information to make a decision. However, in conditions of high uncertainty individuals will make decisions based on their own experience and subjective ideas about the predictability of changes in the external environment. The study of real decision-making processes is particularly relevant to the field of strategic management, since key decisions in an organisation are made by managers based on their individual judgements and subjective perception of reality. Modern decision theory considers subjective probability as a quantitative opinion of an idealised person. The subjective probability of a particular event is determined by a set of odds regarding that event, from which a person is offered a choice. The resulting probability is subjective in the sense that different people may have different estimates of the probability of the same event. In fact, subjective probabilities determine preferences in chances, but are not derived from them, unlike axiomatic rational decision theory. Descriptions of decision-making can be found in a wide variety of fields of knowledge, including concepts and methods from mathematics, statistics, economics, management and psychology. Decision-making processes underlie any purposeful activity in economics and psychology, as well as in the social sphere and politics. The field of decision-making research can be divided into two groups of studies - normative studies, which describe the rational decision-making process, and descriptive studies, which reflect the practice of decision-making in reality. Normative research includes work within economic theory, while descriptive research is the work of heuristic psychologists. The attempt to understand, explain and predict the behaviour of an individual making a certain decision can be considered as one of the main tasks of behavioural and social sciences.

Intracerebral mechanisms explaining the impact of incidental feedback on mood state and risky choice.

Identifying factors whose fluctuations are associated with choice inconsistency is a major issue for rational decision theory. Here, we investigated the neuro-computational mechanisms through which mood fluctuations may bias human choice behavior. Intracerebral EEG data were collected in a large group of subjects (n=30) while they were performing interleaved quiz and choice tasks that were designed to examine how a series of unrelated feedbacks affect decisions between safe and risky options. Neural baseline activity preceding choice onset was confronted first to mood level, estimated by a computational model integrating the feedbacks received in the quiz task, and then to the weighting of option attributes, in a computational model predicting risk attitude in the choice task. Results showed that (1) elevated broadband gamma activity (BGA) in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) and dorsal anterior insula (daIns) was respectively signaling periods of high and low mood, (2) increased vmPFC and daIns BGA respectively promoted and tempered risk taking by overweighting gain vs. loss prospects. Thus, incidental feedbacks induce brain states that correspond to different moods and bias the evaluation of risky options. More generally, these findings might explain why people experiencing positive (or negative) outcome in some part of their life tend to expect success (or failure) in any other.

Community Participation In Tourism Employment: A Phased Evolution Model

Rural residents’ enthusiasm and persistence for participation in tourism employment contribute to the sustainable development of destination tourism. Taking Majiagou village in Hebei Province as a case study, this research focused on changes to residents’ participation behavior in tourism employment, using unstructured interviews and observations. Bounded rational decision theory was applied to delineate the decision-making process of tourism employment participation. The results indicated that rural residents’ participation in tourism employment was subject to a dynamic process of change across three phases: trial participation, herd participation, and selective withdrawal. This evolution is specifically guided by an internal mechanism consisting of "tourism industry attributes—individual bounded rationality—individual employment decision-making.” The study provides an effective analytical framework for characterizing the behavior of rural residents in a tourism community and offers managerial implications for the government to improve the effectiveness and sustainability of community participation.

Organised Crimes In A Globalised World: Implications For Social Studies Education

Globalisation has compressed the entire universe into a global village. For actions and events in a given region trigger consequences and reactions in distant climes. The world has indeed been thrown into a global state of insecurity occasioned by the perpetration of organised crimes aided by technological advancement. The rate of renewed militancy in the Niger-Delta by the avengers groups and sustained terrorist attacks in Europe and across the globe have, more than ever before, thrown the world into a state of security uncertainty. The situation is enough to challenge social educators to take responsibility of radically spearheading moral and values reorientation at the basic level of education that will ensure the inculcation of values of love and peaceful coexistence.Data for the study was sourced from secondary materials. The study was carried out with a descriptive design. The authors in this paper are of the view that a properly-articulated Social Studies education programme with a sound pedagogical delivery method could be a potent instrument to reduce the menace of organised crimes especially kidnapping and militancy/terrorism across the globe.The study was anchored on the rational decision theory of crime.

The debate over rational decision making in evidence-based medicine: implications for evidence-informed policy

Many of the resources developed to promote the use of evidence in policy aspire to an ideal of rational decision making, yet their basis in the decision sciences is often unclear. Tracing the historical development of evidence-informed policy to its roots in evidence-based medicine (EBM), we distinguish between two understandings of how research evidence may be applied. Advocates for EBM all seek to use research evidence to optimise clinical care. However, some proponents argue that ‘uptake’ of research evidence should be direct and universal, for example through wide-scale implementation of ‘evidence-based practices’. In contrast, other conceptualisations of EBM are rooted in expected utility theory, which defines rational decisions as choices that are expected to result in the greatest benefit. Applying this theory to medical care, clinical decision-making models clearly demonstrate that rational decisions require not only a range of relevant evidence, but also expertise to inform judgments regarding the credibility of estimates and to assess fit-to-context, and stakeholder preferences and values to weigh trade-offs among competing outcomes. Using these models as exemplars, we argue that attempts to apply research evidence directly to practice or policy without consideration of expert judgement or preferences and values reflect fundamental misconceptions about the theory of rational decision making that can impede implementation. In turn, the decision sciences highlight the need to consider the role of expertise and judgment when interpreting research evidence, the role of preferences and values when applying it to specific decisions, and the practical limits imposed by the uncertainty inherent in each.

Knowledge as commitment.

This commentary on the paper "Knowledge before belief" argues that it is not only in the cognitive sciences that knowledge should be separated into a separate category from belief, but also in rational decision theory. It outlines how knowledge-as-commitment - as distinct from knowledge-as-belief - can be built into an extension of the economic theory of revealed preference.

Kognitivne pristrasnosti u marketinškoj komunikaciji - uticaj usidrenja i uokvirivanja poruka na percepciju i spremnost potrošača na kupovinu

While in the theory of rational decision making, it is considered that people's choices remain consistent and predictable even in cases when same information is presented in different ways, in real situations consumers' decisions are affected by their personal characteristics, habits, norms and past experience, as well as limitations of human cognitive mechanisms. In general, heuristics can be perceived as fast cognitive processes in decision making which can sometimes lead to the occurrence of biases which shape the final decision. In marketing communication, the general capacity of people to make cognitive errors encourage the application of certain principles in formulation of messages in order to instigate recipients to make predictable cognitive errors when making decisions. The subject of the research is to determine how the encouragement of cognitive biase sin marketing communication can affect decisions of messages recipients. The research included the application of two research methods observation and experimental method. In as many as 80% of the observed advertisements, the encouragement of at least one cognitive bias was registered. In both experimental situations, it was shown that the willingness to pay for a product depends on the way the promotional message is formulated.

A theory of instrumental and existential rational decisions: Smith, Weber, Mauss, T\xf6nnies after Martin Buber

This paper proffers a dialogical theory of decision-making: decision-makers (DMs) are engaged in two modes of rational decisions, instrumental and existential. Instrumental rational decisions take place when the DM views the self externally to the objects, whether goods or animate beings. Existential rational decisions take place when the DM views the self in union with such objects. While the dialogical theory differs from Max Weber’s distinction between two kinds of rationality, it follows Martin Buber’s philosophical anthropology. The paper expounds the ramifications of the dialogical theory in understanding structures of exchange considering assessments of diverse thinkers.

SUBSTANTIVE ISSUES OF COOPERATION IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT

Abstract: The paper presents issues related to cooperation in the process of crisis management, which connects with a wide range of matters concerning many scientific disciplines. Consideration of the nature, scope and character of cooperation in crisis management just in certain aspects not only narrows down the issues, but often distorts what the most essential is in it. This question is fundamental in science and is quite easily noticeable when following the development of scientific thought. The study includes the evolution of scientific ideas in the field of security and management sciences. It gradually passes from purely organizational issues, through rational decision theory and praxeology favoring it, operational research theory, and mathematical economics to behavioral theory rejecting almost completely the existing scientific achievements for the psychological and sociological conditions of cooperation in crisis manage-ment from the systemic perspective. That was made under the assumption that the practice of collaboration in crisis management reveals that the matters mentioned above must be considered in this process. Omission or understatement of any of them most frequently leads to failure, and thus to farreaching consequences of cooperation. The paper is based on the results of research conducted in the scientific discipline of security sciences. The authors' statements are divided into several parts. After the introduction, the characteristics of the crisis management system, theoretical aspects of cooperation and practical aspects of developing plans and schedules for collaboration between elements of the crisis management system are presented. The whole work finishes with a summary, in which reference was made to the as-sumptions of considerations and its parts, emphasizing their cognitive values.

The Paradox of Patience

Some normative theories—act utilitarianism and rational decision theory among them—both designate some range of outcomes as particularly important, and, with an eye towards securing those outcomes, provide agents with advice concerning what is to be done. In this paper I argue that there are situations in which these two aspects of such theories are in tension. I provide a handful of conditions that, when jointly satisfi ed, pick out situations in which these theories recommend that agents act in ways that do not contribute to the outcomes on which they place value.

Analyzing Abstraction and Hierarchical Decision-Making in Absolute Identification by Information-Theoretic Bounded Rationality.

In the face of limited computational resources, bounded rational decision theory predicts that information-processing should be concentrated on actions that make a significant contribution in terms of the utility achieved. Accordingly, information-processing can be simplified by choosing stereotypic actions that lead to satisfactory performance over a range of different inputs rather than choosing a specific action for each input. Such a set of similar inputs with similar action responses would then correspond to an abstraction that can be harnessed with possibly negligible loss in utility, but with potentially considerable savings in information-processing effort. Here we test this prediction in an identification task, where human subjects were asked to estimate the roundness of ellipses varying from a straight line to a perfect circle. Crucially, when reporting their estimates, subjects could choose between three different levels of precision corresponding to three levels of abstraction in a decision-making hierarchy. To induce changes in level selection, we manipulated the information-processing resources available at the perceptual and action stages by varying the difficulty of identifying the stimulus and by enforcing different response times in the action stage. In line with theoretical predictions, we find that subjects adapt their abstraction level depending on the available resources. We compare subjects' behavior to the maximum efficiency predicated by the bounded rational decision-making model and investigate possible sources of inefficiency.

Quantifying Motor Task Performance by Bounded Rational Decision Theory.

Expected utility models are often used as a normative baseline for human performance in motor tasks. However, this baseline ignores computational costs that are incurred when searching for the optimal strategy. In contrast, bounded rational decision-theory provides a normative baseline that takes computational effort into account, as it describes optimal behavior of an agent with limited information-processing capacity to change a prior motor strategy (before information-processing) into a posterior strategy (after information-processing). Here, we devised a pointing task where subjects had restricted reaction and movement time. In particular, we manipulated the permissible reaction time as a proxy for the amount of computation allowed for planning the movements. Moreover, we tested three different distributions over the target locations to induce different prior strategies that would influence the amount of required information-processing. We found that movement endpoint precision generally decreases with limited planning time and that non-uniform prior probabilities allow for more precise movements toward high-probability targets. Considering these constraints in a bounded rational decision model, we found that subjects were generally close to bounded optimal. We conclude that bounded rational decision theory may be a promising normative framework to analyze human sensorimotor performance.

Collective decision making by rational individuals

The patterns and mechanisms of collective decision making in humans and animals have attracted both empirical and theoretical attention. Of particular interest has been the variety of social feedback rules and the extent to which these behavioral rules can be explained and predicted from theories of rational estimation and decision making. However, models that aim to model the full range of social information use have incorporated ad hoc departures from rational decision-making theory to explain the apparent stochasticity and variability of behavior. In this paper I develop a model of social information use and collective decision making by fully rational agents that reveals how a wide range of apparently stochastic social decision rules emerge from fundamental information asymmetries both between individuals and between the decision makers and the observer of those decisions. As well as showing that rational decision making is consistent with empirical observations of collective behavior, this model makes several testable predictions about how individuals make decisions in groups and offers a valuable perspective on how we view sources of variability in animal, and human, behavior.

Moving (Impulsivley) Forward: Speed Versus Accuracy in the Emergence of New Organizations

Organizational founding requires entrepreneurs to make decisions and act under uncertainty. Current theories of rational decision making fall short of providing explanation as to who will succeed u...

Decision support for using mobile Rapid DNA analysis at the crime scene

Mobile Rapid DNA technology is close to being incorporated into crime scene investigations, with the potential to identify a perpetrator within hours. However, the use of these techniques entails the risk of losing the sample and potential evidence, because the device not only consumes the inserted sample, it is also is less sensitive than traditional technologies used in forensic laboratories. Scene of Crime Officers (SoCOs) therefore will face a ‘time/success rate trade-off’ issue when making a decision to apply this technology.In this study we designed and experimentally tested a Decision Support System (DSS) for the use of Rapid DNA technologies based on Rational Decision Theory (RDT). In a vignette study, where SoCOs had to decide on the use of a Rapid DNA analysis device, participating SoCOs were assigned to either the control group (making decisions under standard conditions), the Success Rate (SR) group (making decisions with additional information on DNA success rates of traces), or the DSS group (making decisions supported by introduction to RDT, including information on DNA success rates of traces).This study provides positive evidence that a systematic approach for decision-making on using Rapid DNA analysis assists SoCOs in the decision to use the rapid device. The results demonstrated that participants using a DSS made different and more transparent decisions on the use of Rapid DNA analysis when different case characteristics were explicitly considered. In the DSS group the decision to apply Rapid DNA analysis was influenced by the factors “time pressure” and “trace characteristics” like DNA success rates. In the SR group, the decisions depended solely on the trace characteristics and in the control group the decisions did not show any systematic differences on crime type or trace characteristic.Guiding complex decisions on the use of Rapid DNA analyses with a DSS could be an important step towards the use of these devices at the crime scene.

Bi-objective decision making in global optimization based on statistical models

A global optimization problem is considered where the objective functions are assumed “black box” and “expensive”. An algorithm is theoretically substantiated using a statistical model of objective functions and the theory of rational decision making under uncertainty. The search process is defined as a sequence of bi-objective selections of sites for the computation of the objective function values. It is shown that two well known (the maximum average improvement, and the maximum improvement probability) algorithms are special cases of the proposed general approach.