ABSTRACT In this article we use an overlapping generations model economy to study the quantitative consequences of the decrease in the labour income share of output for the future sustainability of unfunded public pension systems. We find that this negative dynamic worsens the sustainability of these systems in the short and medium term, since the drop in payroll tax collections is bigger than the decrease in pension expenditure due to lower pensions, as the lower earnings are transferred to pensions with a certain time lag. Moreover, we find that longer pensionable earning references used to compute the pension may amplify this financial imbalance. Finally, we also find that the future pension imbalance increases significantly if such labour income share dynamics are also accompanied by a decrease in the capital income share, since the decrease in the wage rate is bigger when both factor income shares decrease simultaneously.
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