Playing with fire: Socioeconomic factors and deliberate wildfires in Texas

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Deliberately setting fires, also known as arson, is one of the primary causes of human-caused wildfires in the US. Arson fires pose a significant threat, contributing to the human-caused wildfire problem in the southern US. Since more than 90% of wildfires in the South are human-caused, it is particularly important to examine the factors that influence the distribution of arson wildfires in this region. While most research has combined arson fires together with other human-caused wildfires, a smaller body of studies has focussed specifically on fires started by arson. The focus of this study is to understand the key factors associated with the distribution of intentional wildfires in Texas. We examine the relationship between a combination of key socioeconomic factors and environmental factors and, arson wildfires using Negative Binomial models. As expected, our results indicate that road density, unemployment rate, and crime rate are positively associated with arson fires, and the number of law enforcement officers and wage rate are negatively associated with arson wildfire incidences. The higher percentage of forest cover in a county and higher temperature regimes are also positively associated with arson fire occurrences. As such, we conclude that arson wildfires are more likely in areas with high accessibility to wildlands. Similarly, counties with high unemployment rates and consequently high crime rates are more likely to suffer from arson wildfires. Our results clearly show that a higher presence of law enforcement officers in a county deter arsonists. Similarly, financial well-being as indicated by the higher wage rates in a county plays an apparent role in curbing arson wildfire occurrences. Thus, the results from this study provide valuable insights to policymakers, land managers, and fire prevention specialists to develop targeted interventions aimed at reducing arson risk in Texas and beyond.