Rate Of Range Shifts Research Articles

Integrative demographic modelling reduces uncertainty in estimated rates of species' historical range shifts

AbstractAimBiogeographers have used three primary data types to examine shifts in tree ranges in response to past climate change: fossil pollen, genetic data and contemporary occurrences. Although recent efforts have explored formal integration of these types of data, we have limited understanding of how integration affects estimates of range shift rates and their uncertainty. We compared estimates of biotic velocity (i.e. rate of species' range shifts) using each data type independently to estimates obtained using integrated models.LocationEastern North America.TaxonFraxinus pennsylvanica Marshall (green ash).MethodsUsing fossil pollen, genomic data and modern occurrence data, we estimated biotic velocities directly from 24 species distribution models (SDMs) and 200 pollen surfaces created with a novel Bayesian spatio‐temporal model. We compared biotic velocity from these analyses to estimates based on coupled demographic‐coalescent simulations and Approximate Bayesian Computation that combined fossil pollen and SDMs with population genomic data collected across the F. pennsylvanica range.ResultsPatterns and magnitude of biotic velocity over time varied by the method used to estimate past range dynamics. Estimates based on fossil pollen yielded the highest rates of range movement. Overall, integrating genetic data with other data types in our simulation‐based framework reduced apparent uncertainty in biotic velocity estimates and resulted in greater similarity in estimates between SDM‐ and pollen‐integrated analyses.Main ConclusionsBy reducing uncertainty in our assessments of range shifts, integration of data types improves our understanding of the past distribution of species. Based on these results, we propose further steps to reach the integration of these three lines of biogeographical evidence into a unified analytical framework.

Upward shifts in elevational limits of forest and grassland for Mexican volcanoes over three decades

AbstractGlobal climates have been warming over the past four decades, with many implications and effects on species and natural communities, in terms of shifts in geographic and elevational ranges. Nonetheless, major knowledge gaps exist, particularly for tropical regions, as regards the timescale and rate of range shifts. We used Landsat imagery to characterize the upper limits of forest and of bunch grassland on the 15 highest (>3500 m) volcanoes of central Mexico over three decades (1986–2018), and documented upward vegetation shifts averaging >490 m in elevation over this period. Treelines showed upward shifts averaging 17.3 m/year over 1986–2018; for one eastern Mexican volcano (Sierra Negra), the NDVI‐based rate (35.7 m/year) contrasts dramatically with a rate of 4.5 m/year measured over the preceding century for that volcano based on comparisons of photographs. These upward elevational shifts imply areal reductions for high‐elevation habitats, and particularly for the bunch grassland that is the focus of considerable local endemism.Abstract in Spanish is available with online material.

Seascape topography slows predicted range shifts in fish under climate change

AbstractShifts in marine species distributions are occurring rapidly in response to climate change, yet predicted rates of change are partly dependent on the data used to estimate species distributions. While pelagic fishes are known to respond to dynamic oceanographic variables, static topographic features can also regulate their distributions, yet the effect of topography on rates of range shifts remains poorly understood. For a suite of five pelagic fishes from an ocean warming hotspot, we developed generalized additive mixed models that did and did not incorporate preferences for seascape topographic heterogeneity when estimating species distributions. Monthly spatial predictions over two decades revealed that poleward extensions in species' core environmental habitats were significantly reduced by 5.3–60.4% (7.1–131.4 km per decade) when preferences for seascape topography were incorporated. These findings suggest that ignoring species associations with static environmental features can substantially affect predicted rates of climate‐driven redistributions in fishes.

Climate‐driven range shifts of montane species vary with elevation

AbstractAimIn response to warming, species are shifting their ranges towards higher elevations. These elevational range shifts have been documented in a variety of taxonomic groups across latitude. However, the rate and direction of species range shifts in response to warming vary, potentially as a consequence of variation in species traits across elevation. Specifically, diurnal and seasonal climates are often more variable at higher elevations, which results in high‐elevation species that have broader thermal physiologies relative to low‐elevation species. High‐elevation species that are thermal generalists might not need to move as far to track their thermal niche as low‐elevation thermal specialists. We investigated whether rates of range shifts varied systematically with increasing elevation across taxa and regions.LocationSixteen montane regions world‐wide.Time period1850–2013.TaxonNine hundred and eighty‐seven species of plants and animals.MethodsWe gathered published data on elevational range shifts from 20 transect studies comparing historical and recent distributions and examined how rates of range shifts changed across elevation. Specifically, we performed a meta‐analysis to calculate the pooled effect of elevation on species range shifts.ResultsWe found that rates of range shifts show a negative relationship with elevation such that low‐elevation species have moved upslope farther than high‐elevation species on the same transect. This finding was primarily a result of shifts in the upper range limits. We also found that 28% of species shifted downslope against predictions, but elevation did not show a relationship with downslope range shifts.Main conclusionsIdiosyncratic range shifts will significantly alter montane ecological communities, which are home to some of the greatest biodiversity on Earth. Our results demonstrate that species range shifts vary with elevation and might be a consequence of differences in species traits that also vary along montane gradients.

Predators drive community reorganization during experimental range shifts.

Increased global temperatures caused by climate change are causing species to shift their ranges and colonize new sites, creating novel assemblages that have historically not interacted. Species interactions play a central role in the response of ecosystems to climate change, but the role of trophic interactions in facilitating or preventing range expansions is largely unknown. The goal of our study was to understand how predators influence the ability of range-shifting prey to successfully establish in newly available habitat following climate warming. We hypothesized that fish predation facilitates the establishment of colonizing zooplankton populations, because fish preferentially consume larger species that would otherwise competitively exclude smaller-bodied colonists. We conducted a mesocosm experiment with zooplankton communities and their fish predators from lakes of the Sierra Nevada Mountains in California, USA. We tested the effect of fish predation on the establishment and persistence of a zooplankton community when introduced in the presence of higher- and lower-elevation communities at two experimental temperatures in field mesocosms. We found that predators reduce the abundance of larger-bodied residents from the alpine and facilitate the establishment of new lower-elevation species. In addition, fish predation and warming independently reduced the average body size of zooplankton by up to 30%. This reduction in body size offset the direct effect of warming-induced increases in population growth rates, leading to no net change in zooplankton biomass or trophic cascade strength. We found support for a shift to smaller species with climate change through two mechanisms: (a) the direct effects of warming on developmental rates and (b) size-selective predation that altered the identity of species' that could colonize new higher elevation habitat. Our results suggest that predators can amplify the rate of range shifts by consuming larger-bodied residents and facilitating the establishment of new species. However, the effects of climate warming were dampened by reducing the average body size of community members, leading to no net change in ecosystem function, despite higher growth rates. This work suggests that trophic interactions play a role in the reorganization of regional communities under climate warming.

Towards an interactive, process‐based approach to understanding range shifts: developmental and environmental dependencies matter

Many species are undergoing distributional shifts in response to climate change. However, wide variability in range shifting rates has been observed across taxa, and even among closely‐related species. Attempts to link climate‐mediated range shifts to traits has often produced weak or conflicting results. Here we investigate interactive effects of developmental processes and environmental stress on the expression of traits relevant to range shifts. We use an individual‐based modelling approach to assess how different developmental strategies affect range shift rates under a range of environmental conditions. We find that under stressful conditions, such as at the margins of the species’ fundamental niche, investment in prolonged development leads to the greatest rates of range shifting, especially when longer time in development leads to improved fecundity and dispersal‐related traits. However, under benign conditions, and when traits are less developmentally plastic, shorter development times are preferred for rapid range shifts, because higher generational frequency increases the number of individual dispersal events occurring over time. Our results suggest that the ability of a species to range shift depends not only on their dispersal and colonisation characteristics but also how these characteristics interact with developmental strategies. Benefits of any trait always depended on the environmental and developmental sensitivity of life history trait combinations, and the environmental conditions under which the range shift takes place. Without considering environmental and developmental sources of variation in the expression of traits relevant to range shifts, there is little hope of developing a general understanding of intrinsic drivers of range shift potential.

Range shifts in response to past and future climate change: Can climate velocities and species’ dispersal capabilities explain variation in mammalian range shifts?

AbstractAimRange shift is a relatively well‐understood response to climate change, but our ability to predict shifts is limited. Two factors that may cause variation in range shifts across species are dispersal ability and varying rates of climate change through time and across space. Here, we assess patterns of range shifts during the late Quaternary and estimate how the velocity of climate change and the dispersal ability of a species affect the magnitude of species range shifts in response to climate change.LocationNorth America.MethodsWe hindcast species distribution models for 122 North American mammals to five times over the past 17,000 years and forecast them to two future times given two emissions scenarios. Generalized additive models were constructed to quantify the importance of dispersal ability and the velocity of temperature and precipitation in determining the magnitude of range shift expected for individual species.ResultsHindcasted and forecasted ranges demonstrate the variety of responses to climate change. In general, species shifted their ranges in a northerly direction (NW, N, NE) regardless of the type of climate change (i.e., warming vs. cooling). The highest rates of range shifts during the past occurred during periods of relatively rapid climate change (Last Glacial Maximum/Bølling‐Allerød and Bølling‐Allerød/Younger Dryas transitions). Rates of range shifts for the future are projected to be significantly higher than any of the past intervals. The velocity of climate change is significantly associated with the magnitude of range shifts during climate transitions that occur over longer time‐scales, while maximum dispersal distance is important during periods of rapid climate change.Main ConclusionsOur results suggest that both the dispersal ability and the velocity of climate change are significantly associated with species’ range shifts. However, the importance of these two factors is context‐dependent and depends on the interaction of the rate of climate change and the length of time over which the change occurs.

Distinguishing geographical range shifts from artefacts of detectability and sampling effort

AbstractAimThe redistribution of species with climate change is well documented. Even so, the relative contribution of species detectability to the variation in measured range shift rates among species is poorly understood. How can true range shifts be discerned from sampling artefacts?LocationAustralia.MethodsWe simulate range shifts for species which differ in their abundance for comparison to patterns derived from empirical range shift data from two regional‐scale (100s km) empirical studies. We demonstrate the use of spatial occupancy data in a distance‐to‐edge (DTE) model to assess changes in geographical range edges of fish species within a temperate reef fish community.ResultsSimulations identified how sampling design can produce relatively larger error in range shift estimates in less abundant species, patterns that correspond with those observed in real data. Application of the DTE model allowed us to estimate the location of the true range edge with high accuracy in common species. In addition, upper confidence bounds for range edge estimates identified species with range edges that have likely shifted in location.ConclusionsSimulation and modelling approaches used to quantify the level of confidence that can be placed in observed range shifts are particularly valuable for studies of marine species, where observations are typically few and patchy. Given the observed variability in range shift estimates, the inclusion of confidence bounds on estimates of geographical range edges will advance our capacity to disentangle true distributional change from artefacts of sampling design.

Defining and observing stages of climate-mediated range shifts in marine systems

Climate change is transforming the structure of biological communities through the geographic extension and contraction of species’ ranges. Range edges are naturally dynamic, and shifts in the location of range edges occur at different rates and are driven by different mechanisms. This leads to challenges when seeking to generalize responses among taxa and across systems. We focus on warming-related range shifts in marine systems to describe extensions and contractions as stages. Range extensions occur as a sequence of (1) arrival, (2) population increase, and (3) persistence. By contrast, range contractions occur progressively as (1) performance decline, (2) population decrease and (3) local extinction. This stage-based framework can be broadly applied to geographic shifts in any species, life-history stage, or population subset. Ideally the probability of transitioning through progressive range shift stages could be estimated from empirical understanding of the various factors influencing range shift rates. Nevertheless, abundance and occupancy data at the spatial resolution required to quantify range shifts are often unavailable and we suggest the pragmatic solution of considering observations of range shifts within a confidence framework incorporating the type, amount and quality of data. We use case studies to illustrate how diverse evidence sources can be used to stage range extensions and contractions and assign confidence that an observed range shift stage has been reached. We then evaluate the utility of trait-based risk (invasion) and vulnerability (extinction) frameworks for application in a range shift context and find inadequacies, indicating an important area for development. We further consider factors that influence rates of extension and contraction of range edges in marine habitats. Finally, we suggest approaches required to increase our capacity to observe and predict geographic range shifts under climate change.

Are Plant Species Able to Keep Pace with the Rapidly Changing Climate?

Future climate change is predicted to advance faster than the postglacial warming. Migration may therefore become a key driver for future development of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. For 140 European plant species we computed past range shifts since the last glacial maximum and future range shifts for a variety of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and global circulation models (GCMs). Range shift rates were estimated by means of species distribution modelling (SDM). With process-based seed dispersal models we estimated species-specific migration rates for 27 dispersal modes addressing dispersal by wind (anemochory) for different wind conditions, as well as dispersal by mammals (dispersal on animal's coat – epizoochory and dispersal by animals after feeding and digestion – endozoochory) considering different animal species. Our process-based modelled migration rates generally exceeded the postglacial range shift rates indicating that the process-based models we used are capable of predicting migration rates that are in accordance with realized past migration. For most of the considered species, the modelled migration rates were considerably lower than the expected future climate change induced range shift rates. This implies that most plant species will not entirely be able to follow future climate-change-induced range shifts due to dispersal limitation. Animals with large day- and home-ranges are highly important for achieving high migration rates for many plant species, whereas anemochory is relevant for only few species.

Climate change, biotic interactions and ecosystem services

Climate change is real. The wrangling debates are over, and we now need to move onto a predictive ecology that will allow managers of landscapes and policy makers to adapt to the likely changes in biodiversity over the coming decades. There is ample evidence that ecological responses are already occurring at the individual species (population) level. The challenge is how to synthesize the growing list of such observations with a coherent body of theory that will enable us to predict where and when changes will occur, what the consequences might be for the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity and what we might do practically in order to maintain those systems in as good condition as possible. It is thus necessary to investigate the effects of climate change at the ecosystem level and to consider novel emergent ecosystems composed of new species assemblages arising from differential rates of range shifts of species. Here, we present current knowledge on the effects of climate change on biotic interactions and ecosystem services supply, and summarize the papers included in this volume. We discuss how resilient ecosystems are in the face of the multiple components that characterize climate change, and suggest which current ecological theories may be used as a starting point to predict ecosystem-level effects of climate change.

Species traits explain recent range shifts of Finnish butterflies

AbstractThis study provides a novel systematic comparative analysis of the species characteristics affecting the range margin shifts in butterflies towards higher latitudes, while taking phylogenetic relatedness among species into account. We related observed changes in the northern range margins of 48 butterfly species in Finland between two time periods (1992–1996 and 2000–2004) to 11 species traits. Species with positive records in at least ten 10 km × 10 km grid squares (in the Finnish National Butterfly Recording Scheme, NAFI) in both periods were included in the study. When corrected for range size change, the 48 butterfly species had shifted their range margins northwards on average by 59.9 km between the study periods, with maximum shifts of over 300 km for three species. This rate of range shifts exceeds all previously reported records worldwide. Our findings may be explained by two factors: the study region is situated in higher latitudes than in most previous studies and it focuses on the period of most prominent warming during the last 10–15 years. Several species traits exhibited a significant univariate relationship with the range margin shift according to generalized estimation equations (GEE) taking into account the phylogenetic relatedness among species. Nonthreatened butterflies had on average expanded their ranges strongly northwards (84.5 km), whereas the distributions of threatened species were stationary (−2.1 km). Hierarchical partitioning (HP) analysis indicated that mobile butterflies living in forest edges and using woody plants as their larval hosts exhibited largest range shifts towards the north. Thus, habitat availability and dispersal capacity of butterfly species are likely to determine whether they will be successful in shifting their ranges in response to the warming climate.