Abstract
Future climate change is predicted to advance faster than the postglacial warming. Migration may therefore become a key driver for future development of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. For 140 European plant species we computed past range shifts since the last glacial maximum and future range shifts for a variety of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and global circulation models (GCMs). Range shift rates were estimated by means of species distribution modelling (SDM). With process-based seed dispersal models we estimated species-specific migration rates for 27 dispersal modes addressing dispersal by wind (anemochory) for different wind conditions, as well as dispersal by mammals (dispersal on animal's coat – epizoochory and dispersal by animals after feeding and digestion – endozoochory) considering different animal species. Our process-based modelled migration rates generally exceeded the postglacial range shift rates indicating that the process-based models we used are capable of predicting migration rates that are in accordance with realized past migration. For most of the considered species, the modelled migration rates were considerably lower than the expected future climate change induced range shift rates. This implies that most plant species will not entirely be able to follow future climate-change-induced range shifts due to dispersal limitation. Animals with large day- and home-ranges are highly important for achieving high migration rates for many plant species, whereas anemochory is relevant for only few species.
Highlights
Climate change is expected to have an important impact on biodiversity
In order to improve our knowledge on the importance of dispersal limitation for plant migration, this study addresses the following questions: N Are migration rates derived from process-based seed dispersal models high enough to explain the realized postglacial migration?
Larger animals (e.g. Canis lupus, Ursus arctos, Cervus elaphus, Felis sylvestris) allow higher migration rates compared to dispersal by smaller animals and dispersal by wind
Summary
Climate change is expected to have an important impact on biodiversity. Due to climate warming the potential ranges of European plant species will probably shift pole wards and to higher altitudes (e.g. [1]). Due to climate warming the potential ranges of European plant species will probably shift pole wards and to higher altitudes Evolutionary adaptations to warmer conditions have been documented, there is little evidence that observed genetic shifts will mitigate negative effects at the species’ level [2].The impact of climate change on biodiversity and properties of ecosystems will clearly depend on the ability of plant species to migrate to new sites with suitable habitat conditions [3,4]. Migration of plant species (i.e. a directional shift in a species’ ranges, [5]) is a complex process determined by dispersal potentials, fecundity, population establishment, population growth, landscape structure, and the availability of suitable habitat [6,7].
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