Abatement Rate Research Articles

Life-cycle assessment of oil recovery using dimethyl ether produced from green hydrogen and captured CO2

Hydrocarbon fuels are widely recognized as significant contributors to climate change and the rising levels of CO2 in the atmosphere. As a result, it is crucial to reduce the net carbon intensity of energy derived from these fuels. This study explores the feasibility of using dimethyl ether (DME), produced through the hydrogenation of CO2, as a low-carbon method for generating electricity from hydrocarbon fuels. The proposed approach involves capturing the emitted CO2 during combustion and utilizing it to produce the necessary DME in a closed cycle. It is shown that for a mature reservoir in the Middle East, this method can mitigate approximately 75% of the CO2 emissions released from burning the produced oil. By incorporating zero-carbon electricity throughout the process, the total abatement of CO2 can reach 85%. Furthermore, the study highlights the importance of improving the DME utilization factor (bbl-oil/tDME). By optimizing this factor, high abatement rates can be achieved. However, it is important to note that implementing this method comes with a high exergetic cost. During a certain period in the field’s lifetime, the invested energy exceeds the energy produced. The stages with the highest exergy consumption are CO2 capture and hydrogen production.

Optimal Strategy and Performance for a Closed-Loop Supply Chain with Different Channel Leadership and Cap-and-Trade Regulation

Cap-and-trade is widely recognized as an effective mechanism for curbing carbon emissions, and it significantly influences the operational decisions within supply chains. This study investigates a three-echelon closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) consisting of one original equipment manufacturer, one traditional retailer, and one independent third-party collector. The manufacturer invests in cleaner technologies to produce green products and remanufactures new products from used items recycled by the third-party collector. Considering different channel power structures, three Stackelberg game models are developed, and their optimal solutions are derived using the backward induction. Additionally, the combined effects of remanufacturing-related and carbon-related parameters on economic and environmental benefits as well as social welfare are investigated under different settings. Moreover, the derived results are validated via numerical simulation. The findings indicate that: (1) Each channel member is incentivized to act as the leader role within the CLSC to maximize profits. (2) A loose cap-and-trade regulation is conducive to enhancing the emission abatement rate, collection rate, and overall performance for the CLSC. (3) The retailer-led model is the best option for capturing more economic benefits and social welfare, while the third party-led model can always achieve the best environmental performance regardless of carbon trading price. These research findings can provide valuable insights for policymakers and decision makers engaged in CLSC.

ANALYSIS OF WASTEWATER TREATED BY THE WASTEWATER PLANT OF THE BAMAKO DERMATOLOGICAL HOSPITAL

The study on the physicochemical quality of the treated water from the Bamako Dermatological Hospital (HDB) station, this station operating with activated sludge, was carried out to determine the physicochemical parameters of this treated water. The general objective of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of the wastewater treatment system of the Bamako Dermatological Hospital. To obtain ten (10) water samples were taken in five (5) campaigns in the different compartments of the system at the entrance and exit of the station. The results and the abatement rates obtained indicate that the HDB WWTP treatment needs additional treatment ensuring environmental and health safety, the treated wastewater from the HDB (system inlet) presents abatement rates overload indicators such as phosphate with a value of (-47.67%), cobalt (-28.81%), silver (-10.29%), nitrite (-632.71%),nitrate (-85.40%), sulfate (-6.15%) and fluoride (-56.54%). Low removal values ​​were noted for pH (0.03%), Conductivity (5.1%), Temperature (1.60%) and Dissolved Oxygen (35.82%). . Turbidity with a value of (67.42%), MES (48.63%), Chloride (53.69%), Nickel (83.69%) and Manganese (55.02%) presented considerable reduction rates. However, certain pollution parameters at the outlet were observed (MES, NO2- and PO43-) and are higher than the Malian standards for discharge into nature.

Endogenous Preference for Nonmarket Goods in Carbon Abatement Decisions

Long-term decisions, such as decisions about carbon abatement, are usually based on the implausible assumption of constant social preference. This paper focuses on a specific case of market and nonmarket goods, and it investigates the optimal climate policy when social preference for them is also changed by climate policy in a seminal climate-economy model: the Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate and the Economy (DICE) model with a single objective to maximize market goods consumption. We amend DICE to study an optimization problem that trades off the values of market and nonmarket goods, considering endogenous preferences. The relative price of non-market goods grows over time because of increases in both relative scarcity and the appreciation that represents the preference of it. As nonmarket goods are increasingly valuable relative to market ones, climate damages on nonmarket goods are increasingly expensive. The social cost of carbon, which aggregated climate impact on both goods, is consequently higher. Because abatement decision affects the valuation of nonmarket goods in the utility function, unlike previous climate-economy models, we solve the model iteratively by taking the obtained abatement rates from the last run as inputs in the current run. The results in baseline calibration advocate a more stringent climate policy, where endogenous social preference to climate policy raises the social cost of carbon further by roughly 12%–18% this century. Moreover, neglecting changing social preference leads to an underestimate of nonmarket goods damages by 15%. Climate policy is self-reinforced if it favors the more expensive consumption good. The proposed method can be applied to other long-term problems with endogenous preferences. Funding: H. Liao appreciates the funding from the National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grants 71925008, 72293603, and 72488101].

Electrocoagulation efficiency probed using electrochemical impedance spectroscopy

Electrocoagulation efficiency probed using electrochemical impedance spectroscopy

MODELING THE EFFECTS OF PESTS AND PESTICIDE ON CROP YIELDS IN A MULTIPLE CROPPING SYSTEM

Pest infestation poses a significant threat to agricultural crop yields, and to control it, farmers spray chemical pesticides. The persistent use of these chemical agents not only leads to pesticide residues within crops but also exerts collateral damage on the beneficial pest population. In this research work, we formulate a nonlinear mathematical model to assess the impacts of pesticide on crop yields within a multiple cropping system. Model analysis illustrates that crop consumption rates destabilize, and the spraying rate of pesticide stabilizes the system. Furthermore, we determine conditions for the global stability of the coexisting equilibrium and conduct a global sensitivity analysis to identify model parameters that significantly influence pest population density. Our findings emphasize that, for effective pest population control and enhanced crop yields, farmers should choose either pesticides with a high pest abatement rate or those with a higher pesticide uptake rate. Considering the spraying rate of pesticide as time-dependent, we also suggest an optimal control strategy to minimize the pest population and associated costs. We provide analytical results backed by numerical simulations implemented through the non-standard finite difference scheme to support our findings.

Exporting, Abatement, and Firm-Level Emissions: Evidence from China’s Accession to the WTO

Abstract This paper studies the joint impact of exporting and abatement on the environmental performance of Chinese manufacturers. For two common air pollutants (SO2 and industrial dust) we document that (a) exporters are significantly less emissions-intensive relative to their nonexporting counterparts and (b) this difference cannot be explained by differential rates of abatement alone. Employing variation in trade and environmental conditions across time and space, we quantify the impact of endogenous export and abatement decisions on firm-level emissions. We find that exporting reduces emissions by at least 36% across pollutants. We explore underlying determinants of export-driven reductions in emissions intensity.

Analyzing crop production: Unraveling the impact of pests and pesticides through a fractional model

The continuous growth of the human population raises concerns about food, fiber, and agricultural insecurity. Meeting the escalating demand for agricultural products due to this population surge makes protecting crops from pests becomes imperative. While farmers use chemical pesticides as crop protectors, the extensive use of these chemicals adversely affects both human health and the environment. In this research work, we formulate a nonlinear mathematical model using the Caputo fractional (CF) operator to investigate the effects of pesticides on crop yield dynamics. We assume that pesticides are sprayed proportional to the density of pest density and pests not entirely reliant on crops. The feasibility of every possible nonnegative equilibrium and its stability characteristics are explored utilizing the stability theory of fractional differential equations. Our model analysis reveals that in a continuous spray approach, the roles of pesticide abatement rate and pesticide uptake rate can be interchanged. Furthermore, we have identified the optimal time profile for pesticide spraying rate. This profile proves effective in minimizing both the pest population and the associated costs. To provide a practical illustration of our analytical findings and to showcase the impact of key parameters on the system’s dynamics, we conducted numerical simulations. These simulations are conducted employing the generalized Adams–Bashforth–Moulton method, which allowed us to vividly demonstrate the real-world implications of our research.

Analyzing crop production: Unraveling the impact of pests and pesticides through a fractional model

The continuous growth of the human population raises concerns about food, fiber, and agricultural insecurity. Meeting the escalating demand for agricultural products due to this population surge makes protecting crops from pests becomes imperative. While farmers use chemical pesticides as crop protectors, the extensive use of these chemicals adversely affects both human health and the environment. In this research work, we formulate a nonlinear mathematical model using the Caputo fractional (CF) operator to investigate the effects of pesticides on crop yield dynamics. We assume that pesticides are sprayed proportional to the density of pest density and pests not entirely reliant on crops. The feasibility of every possible nonnegative equilibrium and its stability characteristics are explored utilizing the stability theory of fractional differential equations. Our model analysis reveals that in a continuous spray approach, the roles of pesticide abatement rate and pesticide uptake rate can be interchanged. Furthermore, we have identified the optimal time profile for pesticide spraying rate. This profile proves effective in minimizing both the pest population and the associated costs. To provide a practical illustration of our analytical findings and to showcase the impact of key parameters on the system’s dynamics, we conducted numerical simulations. These simulations are conducted employing the generalized Adams–Bashforth–Moulton method, which allowed us to vividly demonstrate the real-world implications of our research.

Towards a Greener Future: Scaling Up Agroforestry for Global Sustainability

The current world faces several challenges, including climate change, an exponentially increasing population, the loss of biodiversity and environmental concerns which necessities the adoption of the sustainable nature-based solutions such as agroforestry. Agroforestry is the intricate integration of trees, crops, and livestock on the same piece of land management unit that helps to restore the ecosystem, improve soil health, thus combating the environmental degradation. Moreover, agroforestry has also emerged as a potential tool that bridges the ecological preservation, while increasing or at least maintaining the productivity of the whole agroecosystem. Agroforestry is a contemporary food system that relies primarily on natural inputs, leading to the creation of more sustainable and resilient landscapes. Simultaneously, agroforestry systems reduce the soil erosion, and increases the accumulation of organic matter, hence established a closed nutrient cycling which sustain the agricultural production for longer duration. Simultaneously, agroforestry systems are effective in enhancing food security, diversifying farm income and strengthening the resilience of community to climate change thus empower the farmers and provide an opportunity to combat poverty. However, there are numerous constraints including clear land tenure rights, market infrastructure and linkage, and lack of the traditional knowledge which influenced the adoption of agroforestry systems at global level. This immediately need to be addressed by implementing flexible legislation (such as National Agroforestry Policy 2014 adopted by India), capacity building and community involvement, value chain development and payment for ecosystem services. Overall, it is crucial to adopt low-carbon perennial agroecological practices like agroforestry in order to increase the CO2 abatement rate, improve the food, nutritional and livelihood security of smallholder farmers and contribute to a more environmental friendly and sustainable future. Received: 17 January 2024 | Revised: 17 April 2024 | Accepted: 16 May 2024 Conflicts of Interest The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest to this work. Data Availability Statement Data sharing is not applicable to this article as no new data were created or analyzed in this study

Carbon storage and economic efficiency of fruit-based systems in semi-arid region: a symbiotic approach for sustainable agriculture and climate resilience

Enhancing our understanding of carbon (C) stock in diverse horticulture and fruit-based agroforestry systems has potential to provide farmers with supplementary advantages in terms of poverty alleviation and livelihood development which can significantly benefit C market initiatives like UN-REDD (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation). Therefore, the current study aimed to assess the biomass accumulation, C storage and economic efficacy of seven agro-ecosystems, namely guava-based agri-horticulture system (AHS), mango-AHS, guava- pure orchard (PO), mango-PO, Indian gooseberry -PO, teak boundary plantation (TBP) and annual cropping system (ACS) under two different landscape positions viz., upland and lowland in the semi-arid region of Vindhyan ranges. The result indicated that mango-AHS accumulated significantly (p < 0.05) higher biomass (26.01 t ha−1) and vegetation C density (13.01 t C ha−1) whereas, soil (35.23 t C ha−1), litter (0.64 t C ha−1), and total C density (46.63 t C ha−1) was maximum under mango-PO closely followed by mango-AHS. The guava-PO system exhibited significantly (p < 0.05) higher C sequestration (2.11 t C ha−1 yr−1), and CO2 abatement (7.76 t CO2 ha−1 yr−1) rate compared to other systems with C credit generation of 129.76 US$ ha−1 year−1. However, mango-AHS was the most lucrative system providing net returns of 4835.48 US$ ha−1 yr−1 and 5.87 benefit–cost ratio. The C credits help in getting farmers an additional income; however, the economic impact of C credit was low (1.16–6.80%) when weighed against the overall economic efficacy of the different systems. Overall, the study concluded that farmers in the region should adopt fruit-based systems, especially agroforestry systems to establish mutually beneficial relationships between mitigation of climate change and livelihood stability.Graphical

Evaluation of Activated Carbons Prepared from Bioprecursors for the Removal of Cadmium and Chromium (VI)

Trace metals found in industrial effluents are highly toxic pollutants, and these include cadmium and chromium (VI). The objective of this work is to remove cadmium and chromium (VI) on activated carbons, prepared from biomaterials such as nuclei of Ziziphus lotus and coffee grounds. The characterization of adsorbents was performed by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and X-ray diffraction (XRD). The results of the characterization showed an important porosity on the activated carbon’s surface, with sizes between 6 and 50 μm. Similarly, the adsorption results showed that the adsorption process is very rapid and that the increase in contact time and temperature improves the efficiency of the Cd and Cr(VI) removal process. Indeed, abatement rates (R%) of 80% for Cr(VI) and 60% for Cd were obtained after 80 minutes of adsorption on activated carbon prepared from Ziziphus lotus, whereas activated carbon obtained from coffee grounds allows a reduction rate of about 50% for Cr(VI) and Cd. Hence, it seems clearly that the activated carbon of Ziziphus lotus is more effective than that of coffee grounds, especially for the Cr(VI) adsorption. The kinetic modeling of the adsorption process followed the pseudo-second-order model, and the Freundlich model has better explained the adsorption isotherm for Cd and Cr(VI). The thermodynamic study showed that adsorption was spontaneous and endothermic.

Could Windbreak Effect Significantly Decrease Evapotranspiration in Vertical Agrivoltaics?

Bifacial vertical panels have been successful in agrivoltaics since the beginning of this system expansion worldwide. While the question of irradiation reduction effect on evapotranspiration has been largely addressed during last years, the question of wind modification and its impact on evapotranspiration has not been the object of a thorough attention yet. Wind modification is expected to be of greater importance in vertical agrivoltaics, panels acting like windbreaks. This preliminary research aims to assess the potential reduction of evapotranspiration in different climates and to highlight the importance of going further on aerodynamics and water demand topics. It shows that non negligeable amounts of water could be saved if those wind abatement rates are created by the rows of vertical panels compared with the evapotranspiration reduction expected induced by the irradiation reduction. Actually, modification in wind direction and speed will depend on geometrical parameters and wind direction. More measurement campaigns and comprehensive models of aerodynamics (CDF) and evapotranspiration are required to assess the relevance of vertical panels to tackle aridity in constrained climates.

The use of mixed bomass alga-fungi in mutualistic relationship and natural marine-origin carrier in MBBR reactor for an ecological treatment of effluents from fish processing industry in Morocco

The biological treatment in a fluidised biofilm bed bioreactor (MBBR) of fisheries effluent was studied using a mixed biomass of macro-algae and Aspergillus niger as fungal innoculum. The Green macro algae Ulva lactuca (ULva) and the Brown seaweed genus of Laminaria collected from the coast of Mohammedia city in Morocco, was used to ensure better efficiency in reducing pollution in the cases of mixed biomass bioreactor and of a mutualistic relationship favorable between Algae and fungi. For better ecological and economic advantages this study also considers the biofilm colonization media used and also compared between the use of conventional Kaldnes K3 and sardine scales as a support for biofilm colonization in MBBR bioreactors. The results obtained showed that the use of co-culture of fungi and macro-algae represents an excellent development prospect. The organic substance reduction efficiency obtained in this study, using the mixed biomass between the brown macro alga laminaria and the Aspergillus niger fungi, is better than that obtained by using the biomass containing the green macro alga, especially for the reduction of total nitrogen, so that the abatement rate is up to 78% for the natural sardine shell support and 72% for the synthetic K3 support.

Wastewater treatment by infiltration percolation process using fine sand and activated carbon

This study was conducted to find an efficient and inexpensive wastewater treatment system in poor regions and countries. For this purpose, two filtration systems were used to treat wastewater from a WWTP in Morocco, the first one is the intermittent sand filter (ISF) based on fine sand, and the second one is called the modified infiltration percolation (MIP) based on activated carbon. Physico-chemical and bacteriological analyses were carried out before and after passing the water through the filters. The results showed a significant decrease in the physicochemical parameters such as Suspended matter (SM) with an abatement rate of 99.6% for ISF and 99.4% for MIP, Chemical oxygen demand (COD) with an abatement rate of 17.7% for ISF and 55% for MIP, Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5) with an abatement rate of 7.14% for the first filter, and a significant decrease with an abatement rate of 100% by MIP. These two filters decreased the concentration of fecal coliforms with a respective removal rate of 98.2% for ISF and 99% for MIP, except that this concentration exceeds the standards. The physicochemical analyses were within the norms, and the filtration systems showed an important efficiency, contrary to the bacterial load of coliforms which exceeded the standards. To this effect, another treatment is necessary to reduce the bacterial load of the wastewater.

Influence of carbon emission reduction of enterprises on economic growth under climate warming

Global warming, as the main feature of the climate problem, is gradually coming into our field of vision. Under this background, Poisson jump is applied to describe the arrival of natural disasters caused by global warming. Households and firms can dynamically update their beliefs about the arrival rate of disasters. In order to mitigate global warming, firms pay a share of the cost to reduce the carbon emissions in the process of production. In this paper, we discuss the social planner equilibrium and the competitive equilibrium, respectively, and obtain the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equations of value function in both contexts. Then, the equations are numerically simulated, leading to the following conclusions: under the same level of pessimism, investments and values of firms, as well as household consumption, all decrease as the emission abatement rate increases, and the social welfare is almost unchanged compared to the situation without the cost of emission reduction. Furthermore, in order to deal with the short-term adverse effects on the economy caused by emission reductions, the government subsidy is introduced into the model. The results show that, under the same level of pessimism, the government subsidy drives the growth of investment and consumption. The value of the firms that pay the emission abatement has been boosted, and economic growth rate has risen to a certain degree, while social welfare remains almost the same.

A plasmonic S-scheme Au/MIL-101(Fe)/BiOBr photocatalyst for efficient synchronous decontamination of Cr(VI) and norfloxacin antibiotic

Present photocatalysts for the synchronous cleanup of pharmaceuticals and heavy metals have several drawbacks, including inadequate reactive sites, inefficient electron–hole disassociation, and insufficient oxidation and reduction power. In this research, we sought to address these issues by using a facile solvothermal-photoreduction route to develop an innovative plasmonic S-scheme heterojunction, Au/MIL-101(Fe)/BiOBr. The screened-out Au/MIL-101(Fe)/BiOBr (AMB-2) works in a durable and high-performance manner for both Cr(VI) and norfloxacin (NOR) eradication under visible light, manifesting up to 53.3 and 2 times greater Cr(VI) and NOR abatement rates, respectively, than BiOBr. Remarkably, AMB-2's ability to remove Cr(VI) in a Cr(VI)-NOR co-existence system is appreciably better than in a sole-Cr(VI) environment; the synergy among Cr(VI), NOR, and AMB-2 results in the better utilization of photo-induced carriers, yielding a desirable capacity for decontaminating Cr(VI) and NOR synchronously. The integration of MOF-based S-scheme heterojunctions and a plasmonic effect contributes to markedly reinforced photocatalytic ability by increasing the number of active sites, augmenting the visible-light absorbance, boosting the efficient disassociation and redistribution of powerful photo-carriers, and elevating the generation of reactive substances. We provide details of the photocatalytic mechanism, NOR decomposition process, and bio-toxicity of the intermediates. This synergistic strategy of modifying S-scheme heterojunctions with a noble metal opens new horizons for devising excellent MOF-based photosystems with a plasmonic effect for environment purification.

Modelling and Optimization of Simultaneous Removal of Ions (H2PO4-, NO3- and Cd2+) by Adsorption on Clay in Aqueous Solution by Using Response Surface Methodology

This paper deals with the modeling and optimization of the simultaneous elimination of dihydrogen phosphate nitrate and cadmium ions in an aqueous solution using adsorption on a smectite clay. Pollutant concentration and retention time are the two parameters studied. The experimental domains investigated are respectively from 20 to 100 mg.L-1 and from 8 to 16 hours. The tests were conducted with 3g of clay in a 25 mL mixture solution at pH 5. This study has been carried out with Response Surface Methodology (RSM), using NEMROD software. A central composite Design (CCD) was used first to establish a mathematical model that governs the process. The use of Derringer’s overall function of desirability permitted to establish optimal conditions of adsorption. Thus, maximum abatement rates both for each ion have been obtained when the pollutant concentration was 43 mg.L-1 with an adsorption duration of 15 hours. The results of the purification rates were 30.6 %, 68.1 %, and 69.07 %, respectively for nitrate, dihydrogenophosphate, and cadmium ions. It is noticeable that clay can be used as an adsorbent for wastewater depollution from many pollutants at a time.

Modeling and optimization of advanced oxidation treatment of dexamethasone from aquatic solutions using electro-peroxone/ultrasonic process: Application for real wastewater, electrical energy consumption and degradation pathway

Dexamethasone (DXM) is a widely used anti-inflammatory corticosteroid that is frequently detected in the water bodies due to its immense consumption and incomplete removal during wastewater treatment. The potential eco-toxicity of pharmaceutical pollutants and their insufficient removal in conventional wastewater treatments have provoked researchers to investigate and develop novel and highly efficient treatment systems. The present study aimed to develop a synergistic advanced oxidation system based on electro-peroxone coupled with ultrasonic irradiation (EP/US process) for the degradation of dexamethasone (DXM) from water medium and an EP/US process assisted with granular activated carbon (GAC) for the remediation of real pharmaceutical wastewater. The effects of various experimental parameters such as pH, operating time, US power, applied current, and supporting electrolyte (Na2SO4) were systematically investigated by using response surface methodology based on central composite design (RSM-CCD), and results established that the complete degradation of DEX was attained at pH 9, operating time 25 min, US power 300 W/L, applied current 420 mA, and supporting electrolyte 0.05 M. The results of analysis of variance and regression analysis revealed that the second-order polynomial equation is more suitable (R2 = 0.9981 and p-value = 0.0004) to predict removal efficiency and describe the oxidation process. Under optimized experimental condition, the integrated EP/US process provided synergy and lessenergyconsumption compared to individual EP and US processes. The removal efficiency of TOC and COD reached 44.2% and 70.8% after 25 min reaction and increased to 78.7 % and 94.4%, respectively, as contact time increased to 50 min. Also, average oxidation state (AOS) and carbon oxidation state (COS) values increased from 0.22 to 3.28 and 3.78, respectively. Scavenger tests disclosed that HO• radical is the predominant reactive free radical generated in the EP/US system, and LC-MS analysis indicated that different intermediates are produced during DEX decomposition. The EP/US system increased the BOD/COD ratio of real pharmaceutical wastewater from 0.27 to 0.5 during 100 min treatment time, while in the presence of GAC, the EP/US process showed better results. Overall, the present study highlights that the coupling of EP/US processes noticeably improves the DEX abatement rate from water medium, and GAC can improve the efficiency of this process for pharmaceutical wastewater treatment. The findings of the present study propose the EP/US and EP/US/GAC systems as promising efficient alternatives for treating persistentpharmaceutical wastewater.

Climate uncertainty impacts on optimal mitigation pathways and social cost of carbon

Emissions pathways used in climate policy analysis are often derived from integrated assessment models. However, such emissions pathways do not typically include climate feedbacks on socioeconomic systems and by extension do not consider climate uncertainty in their construction. We use a well-known cost-benefit integrated assessment model, the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy (DICE) model, with its climate component replaced by the Finite-amplitude Impulse Response (FaIR) model (v2.1). The climate uncertainty in FaIR is sampled with an ensemble that is consistent with historically observed climate and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessed ranges of key climate variables such as equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). By varying discounting assumptions, three scenarios are produced: a pathway similar to the ‘optimal welfare’ scenario of DICE that has similar warming outcomes to current policies, and pathways that limit warming to ‘well-below’ 2 and 1.5 with a short-term overshoot, aiming to meet Paris Agreement long-term temperature goals. Climate uncertainty alone is responsible for a factor of five variation (5%–95% range) in the social cost of carbon (SCC) in the 1.5 overshoot scenario, with the spread in SCC increasing in relative terms with increasing stringency of climate target. CO2 emissions trajectories resulting from the optimal level of emissions abatement in all pathways are also sensitive to climate uncertainty, with 2050 emissions ranging from −12 to +14 GtCO2 yr−1 in the 1.5 scenario. ECS and the strength of present-day aerosol effective radiative forcing are strong determinants of SCC and mid-century CO2 emissions. This shows that narrowing climate uncertainty leads to more refined estimates for the social cost of carbon and provides more certainty about the optimal rate of emissions abatement. Including climate and climate uncertainty in integrated assessment model derived emissions scenarios would address a key missing feedback in scenario construction.