Rapid Cost Reduction Research Articles

Cross-technology legitimacy feedback: The politics of policy-led innovation for complementarity in concentrating solar power

Solar photovoltaic and wind power generation is expanding fast globally, fuelled by technological progress and rapid cost reductions. Other renewable power technologies fare much worse: deployment stagnates despite substantial technological progress. Here, we explore why these technologies fall off political agendas although they are improving, proposing that negative cross-technology feedback from more dynamic, faster deployed technologies reduce the legitimacy of laggard technologies. This generates political pressure to cancel or adapt support schemes, which in turn may push the laggard technology to change and become more complementary to the dynamic technologies. We illustrate our propositions with a case study of concentrating solar power (CSP) policy and deployment in three countries. We show how negative legitimacy feedback from the dynamic diffusion of photovoltaics and wind power in the 2010s led to both policy termination and technological adaptation towards complementarity, changing CSP from a generation to a storage and balancing technology.

The role and deployment timing of direct air capture in Saudi Arabia’s net-zero transition

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) has pledged to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2060. Direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) is critical for the country to meet its net-zero target given its reliance on fossil fuels and limited options for carbon dioxide removal (CDR). However, the role of DACCS in KSA’s national climate change mitigation has not been studied in the literature. In this study, we aim to understand the potential role of DACCS and the effect of its deployment timing in KSA’s transition toward its net-zero target using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM)-KSA, which is a version of GCAM with KSA split out as an individual region. We find that the annual DACCS CO2 sequestration in KSA reaches 0.28–0.33 Gt yr−1 by 2060 depending on its deployment timing. Early DACCS deployment, driven by its early and rapid cost reduction worldwide, could bring significant savings (∼420 billion USD during 2020–2060) in the cost of climate change mitigation in KSA, approximately 17% reduction relative to delayed DACCS deployment. Our study suggests a strong role for KSA to proactively invest in the R&D of DACCS, initiate early DACCS deployment, and explore a broad suite of CDR options.

Offshore wind power in the Asia-Pacific: Expert elicitation on costs and policies

Offshore wind power is an important technology option for decarbonising the electricity sector. An emerging region for the deployment of offshore wind is the Asia-Pacific. We conduct an expert elicitation of future cost expectations for offshore wind in the Asia-Pacific region, covering fixed-bottom and floating offshore wind technologies. We also examine views on policies that support the more rapid cost reductions for fixed bottom and floating offshore wind. We find expectations of decreases in the average levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) to USD72/MWh in 2040 (fixed-bottom) and USD81/MWh in 2050 (floating). The largest factors contributing to falling technology costs are identified as installation costs and capital costs for turbines and foundations, along with increased capacity factors. The creation of policy targets along with improved regulatory streamlining are identified as important policy measures that governments could implement to support technology cost reductions. We also find that preferred policy mixes depend on the level of technological maturity. Competitive tendering processes are identified as important for both technologies, but floating offshore wind auctions should be introduced after technology costs have fallen. In the near term, other policies are identified as more important for floating offshore technologies.

A high-performance perovskite solar cell with a designed nanoarchitecture and modified mesoporous titania electron transport layer by zinc nanoparticles impurity

In this study, the fabrication of perovskite solar cells (PSCs) satisfying both high efficiency and photostability of the PSCs through introducing the zinc nanoparticles into mesoporous titania electron transport layer (ETL) was performed. A soft-template sol–gel method was utilized to prepare different content of Zn dopant in ETL of PSCs. Doping zinc nanoparticles into a mesoporous titania ETL was employed to improve solar cell performance. The results showed that the PSC efficiency of the cell was increased by doping 2 mol% zinc to the mesoporous titania ETL from 9.74 % to 13.76 %. The Voc and Jsc values of 0.98 and 24.44 were achieved for 2 % zinc-doped ETL solar cells. This research focuses on promising perovskite solar cells that combine the large surface area of a mesoporous titania electron transparent layer with zinc oxide nanoparticles to produce solar cells with large applications and rapid cost reductions.

GIS-based solar and wind resource assessment and least-cost 100 % renewable electricity modelling for Bolivia

Rapid cost reductions of solar photovoltaics and wind offer a pathway to deep decarbonization of energy at low cost. Off-river pumped hydro energy storage provides mature, cheap and very large-scale storage that helps to balance variable generation and demand while avoiding environmental and social impacts. Many developing countries, especially those in the sunbelt, have the opportunity to adopt this pathway and bypass additional fossil fuel capacities while developing their economies. This study investigates the feasibility of such pathway for Bolivia, a country that relies heavily on fossil gas for both domestic energy consumption and export income. The current reliance on fossil gas, however, is untenable in the long-term due to the worldwide transition to low carbon energy, and the potential growth in per capita energy demand. Instead, a GIS-based resource assessment presented in this study identifies massive low-cost solar photovoltaic, wind and pumped hydro potential that are far more than needed to supply and balance the future electricity demand in Bolivia. A 10-year hourly energy balance model is presented of a future Bolivian electricity system with 100 % renewable electricity supplied by solar, wind and hydroelectricity, and balanced by off-river pumped hydro and high voltage transmission. It is found that the levelized cost of electricity is in the range $44–53/MWh across all scenarios, which is lower than the cost of electricity from new hydroelectricity or gas plants. Importantly, the costs modelled in this study are upper bounds because only technologies that are already deployed in large quantities worldwide are included.

Cost of Goods Analysis Facilitates an Integrated Approach to Identifying Alternative Synthesis Methodologies for Lower Cost Manufacturing of the COVID-19 Antiviral Molnupiravir

Orally delivered drugs offer significant benefits in the fight against viral infections, and cost-effective production is critical to their impact on pandemic response in low- and middle-income countries. One example, molnupiravir, a COVID-19 therapy developed by Emory, Ridgeback, and Merck & Co., had potential to benefit from significant cost of goods (COGs) reductions for its active pharmaceutical ingredient (API), including starting materials. A holistic approach to identifying, developing, and evaluating optimized synthetic routes, which includes detailed COGs modeling, provides a rapid means to increase the availability, uptake and application of molnupiravir and other antivirals in global markets. Identification and development of alternate processes for the synthesis of molnupiravir has been conducted by the Medicines for All Institute at Virginia Commonwealth University (M4ALL) and the Green and Turner Labs at the University of Manchester. Both groups developed innovative processes based on synthetic route design and biocatalysis aimed at lowering costs and improving global access. The authors then performed COGs modeling to assess cost saving opportunities. This included a focus on manufacturing environments and facilities amenable to global public health and the identification of key parameters using sensitivity analyses. While all of the evaluated routes provide efficiency benefits, the best options yielded 3-6 fold API COGs reductions leading to treatment COGs as low as <$3/regimen. Additionally, key starting materials and cost drivers were quantified to evaluate the robustness of the savings. Finally, COGs models can continue to inform the focus of future development efforts on the most promising routes for additional cost savings. While the full price of a treatment course includes other factors, these alternative API synthetic approaches have significant potential to help facilitate broader access in low- and middle-income countries. As other promising therapeutics are developed, a similar process could enable rapid cost reductions while enhancing global access.

Possible pathways for oil and gas companies in a sustainable future: From the perspective of a hydrogen economy

Before the COVID pandemic, oil and gas companies invested only a small fraction of their capital on sustainable energy technologies. With the substantial improvement in the performance of batteries and their rapid cost reduction, the oil and gas industry could potentially lose a large share of their market in the transport sector. A similar shift in energy sources is happening with the surge in renewable energy sources to supply electricity, heating and cooling. In an ever more sustainable future, the need for an oil and gas industry could reduce significantly. This paper reviews the possible paths that an oil and gas company could follow to become a sustainable development corporation and continue to be relevant in the future. This paper aims to describe alternative sustainable pathways such as the extraction of natural hydrogen, a hydrogen economy, offshore wind power, deep sea mining, biorefineries, seawater air-conditioning, geothermal and geoengineering. This paper also proposes the use of electrolysis ships for the flexible production of green hydrogen and showed that its investment cost can be three times smaller than in fixed electrolysis plants. The oil and gas industry has substantial intellectual, financial capital and geopolitical influence that would not be lost during a shift to a more sustainable world. Indeed, these assets should be used to facilitate the transition to a more sustainable future.

Cost of Goods Analysis Facilitates an Integrated Approach to Identifying Alternative Synthesis Methodologies for Lower Cost Manufacturing of the COVID-19 Antiviral Molnupiravir

Orally delivered drugs offer significant benefits in the fight against viral infections, and cost-effective production is critical to their impact on pandemic response in low- and middle-income countries. One example, molnupiravir, a COVID-19 therapy developed by Emory, Ridgeback, and Merck & Co., had potential to benefit from significant cost of goods (COGs) reductions for its active pharmaceutical ingredient (API), including starting materials. A holistic approach to identifying, developing, and evaluating optimized synthetic routes, which includes detailed COGs modeling, provides a rapid means to increase the availability, uptake and application of molnupiravir and other antivirals in global markets. Identification and development of alternate processes for the synthesis of molnupiravir has been conducted by the Medicines for All Institute at Virginia Commonwealth University (M4ALL) and the Green and Turner Labs at the University of Manchester. Both groups developed innovative processes based on synthetic route design and biocatalysis aimed at lowering costs and improving global access. The authors then performed COGs modeling to assess cost saving opportunities. This included a focus on manufacturing environments and facilities amenable to global public health and the identification of key parameters using sensitivity analyses. While all of the evaluated routes provide efficiency benefits, the best options yielded 3-6 fold API COGs reductions leading to treatment COGs as low as <$3/regimen. Additionally, key starting materials and cost drivers were quantified to evaluate the robustness of the savings. Finally, COGs models can continue to inform the focus of future development efforts on the most promising routes for additional cost savings. While the full price of a treatment course includes other factors, these alternative API synthetic approaches have significant potential to help facilitate broader access in low- and middle-income countries. As other promising therapeutics are developed, a similar process could enable rapid cost reductions while enhancing global access.

Cost reductions in renewables can substantially erode the value of carbon capture and storage in mitigation pathways

<h2>Summary</h2> Tackling climate change requires a rapid transition to net-zero energy systems. A variety of different technologies could contribute to this transition, and uncertainty remains over their relative role and value. A growing school of thought argues that rapid cost reductions in renewables reduce the need for carbon capture and storage (CCS) in mitigation pathways. Here we use an integrated assessment model to explore how the value of CCS is affected by cost reductions in solar photovoltaics, onshore, and offshore wind. Low-cost renewables could erode the value of CCS by 15%–96% across different energy sectors. Renewables directly compete with CCS, accelerate power sector decarbonization, and enable greater electrification of end-use sectors. CCS has greatest value and resilience to low-cost renewables in sustainable bioenergy/industrial applications, with limited value in hydrogen/electricity generation. This suggests that targeted, rather than blanket, CCS deployment represents the best strategy for achieving the Paris Agreement goals. <h3>Science for society</h3> The cost of renewable technologies has plummeted in the last decade and is likely to fall further in the future. While renewables will play a dominant role in reducing emissions, it is unclear whether their falling costs make other solutions such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) unnecessary. We perform an in-depth exploration into how the role and value of CCS to decisionmakers is affected by cost reductions in wind and solar power. Cost reductions in renewables reduce the value of CCS by 15%–96%, depending on the energy system sector under consideration. CCS is therefore less valuable to policymakers due to cost reductions in renewables. Nevertheless, CCS retains value for decarbonizing industry and removing CO₂ from the atmosphere, and targeted CCS deployment should be prioritized. Further research could assess the value of CCS using a broader range of sustainability metrics, such as land, material, and health impacts.

Emission Abatement Technology Selection, Routing and Speed Optimization of Hybrid Ships

This paper evaluates the effect of a large-capacity electrical energy storage, e.g., Li-ion battery, on optimal sailing routes, speeds, fuel choice, and emission abatement technology selection. Despite rapid cost reduction and performance improvement, current Li-ion chemistries are infeasible for providing the total energy demand for ocean-crossing ships because the energy density is up to two orders of magnitude less than in liquid hydrocarbon fuels. However, limited distance zero-emission port arrival, mooring, and port departure are attainable. In this context, we formulate two groups of numerical problems. First, the well-known Emission Control Area (ECA) routing problem is extended with battery-powered zero-emission legs. ECAs have incentivized ship operators to choose longer distance routes to avoid using expensive low sulfur fuel required for compliance, resulting in increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The second problem evaluates the trade-off between battery capacity and speed on battery-powered zero-emission port arrival and departure legs. We develop a mixed-integer quadratically constrained program to investigate the least cost system configuration and operation. We find that the optimal speed is up to 50% slower on battery-powered legs compared to the baseline without zero-emission constraint. The slower speed on the zero-emission legs is compensated by higher speed throughout the rest of the voyage, which may increase the total amount of GHG emissions.

Status, trend, economic and environmental impacts of household solar photovoltaic development in China: Modelling from subnational perspective

Distributed solar PV contributes one third to total solar power generation in China, but household solar PV (HSPV) currently accounts for only 22% in the distributed solar market. Although researchers have investigated the huge power generation potential of the rooftop system by various estimation techniques and case studies, few has looked deeper into the barriers and pathways to realize that potential. This study builds an analytical framework for HSPV development, which includes a trend analysis module based on the downscaling platform and an impact simulation module based on techno-economic evaluation. Results show that the top four provinces contribute 74% to current installed capacity of HSPV, which represents only 2% of the technical potential. However, with the rapid cost reduction and market expansion, regional development of HSPV would become more balanced. Besides, although HSPV project is economically feasible for 86% of the prefectural cities, the profitability remains to be further enhanced given its current low adoption rate. When environmental and health gains from reduced exposure to air pollution are considered, net benefit is equivalent to 62.8% of the initial investment, and larger net benefit is expected for households from cities in the southern and eastern coastal regions. Finally, it is concluded that constant cost decline brought by technology innovation is still the main driver for the majority of less developed cities in the middle and northern part of China, and more efforts should be devoted to business mode innovation to motivate HSPV investment in more developed cities in the east.

Analysis on the Development of Renewable Energy Power Application in the Energy Transition

Today’s world is in a wave of energy transition. Relying on the advantages of low carbon and rapid cost reduction, renewable energy has gradually become the core of many countries to promote energy transition and an important way to deal with energy crisis and environmental pollution. Renewable energy power generation has also become the main source of new power generation. Combining energy development, this article analyzes the problems of China’s renewable energy power, puts forward suggestions on related issues, promotes energy transition, and contributes to the establishment of a green and low-carbon circular economic system.

Comparison of Battery Models for Battery Energy Storage System Development

Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) can be utilized in various ways to improve the reliability, durability, and efficiency of grid operations. With the advancement of battery technology and rapid cost reduction, BESS has become very promising. An accurate BESS model in simulation platform is very important to design an efficient BESS-connected powered system. Battery as one of the main components that govern BESS perfomance need to be modeled. There are many battery models that has been developed. In this paper, some of battery models will be studied and the comparison of different battery models is also presented.

Ecological–economic assessment of renewable energy deployment in sustainable built environment

Modern technological advances and rapid cost reduction have led to the widespread deployment of solar photovoltaic (PV) units, which is a cost-effective solution to improve the energy resilience and carbon offsetting for a sustainable built environment. However, PV electricity is not a pure clean energy considering the costs and carbon emissions associated with its manufacturing and operations. Moreover, the efficiency of a PV system is significantly affected by the local climate and built environment as well as energy management and storage methods. Therefore, it is essential to assess PV systems using integrated metrics for a comprehensive understanding of their net benefits. Hence, this study developed and applied life-cycle models to support PV system assessment in local contexts by identifying the morphological factors that affect PV system efficiency, by estimating energy, carbon and investment payback periods; and discussing the carbon offsetting in different energy storage contexts. Case study indicates that using PV-battery systems is an economical way to improve energy resilience and carbon offsetting. Further, communal storage is more favourable than household-level storage. Methodology and findings of this study are expected to facilitate the development of economical low-carbon energy supply as well as to support the optimal planning of low-carbon precincts. • System boundary defined for the ecological–economic assessment of PV-battery systems. • Integrated metrics established for techno-economic feasibility and environmental benefits of PV-battery systems. • Community storage is more attractive in energy resilience, carbon offsetting and cost efficiency. • Battery-size selection based on PV yield, local electricity tariffs and occupant demand. • Sensitivity analysis conducted to exam the impacts of PV self-sufficiency on other indicators.

THE CHANGING ROLE OF CARBON PRICING IN THE EU

Carbon pricing has been the most prominent climate change mitigation policy for the EU since the launch of its emissions trading system (ETS) in 2005. Since then, the context of international climate policy as well as of the socio-political and economical context of decarbonisation has changed considerably. The 2015 Paris Agreement engages virtually every country unlike its predecessor, while non-carbon pricing policies have led to rapid cost reductions in renewables, even if other sectors (particularly in energy-intensive industry) have not seen similar developments. This paper examines how the role of carbon pricing in the EU climate policy mix has evolved from its beginnings as a means to help achieve modest targets under the Kyoto Protocol, to a policy instrument increasingly augmented by a wider policy mix aimed at reaching no net emissions of greenhouse gases by mid-century.

Application progress of transcriptome sequencing in hematological malignancies

Transcriptome sequencing (RNA-seq) has unique advantages in analyzing gene fusion, splicing mutations, and gene expression profiles. Single-cell RNA-seq provides powerful tools to reveal cellular heterogeneity in normal and tumor tissues. With the widespread application of high-throughput gene sequencing technology and the rapid reduction in cost, RNA-seq is increasingly used in hematological malignancies research. This article introduces the related research progress in conjunction with reports at the 61st American Society of Hematology Annual Meeting. Key words: High-throughput nucleotide sequencing; Transcriptome; Gene sequencing; Fusion genes; Gene mutations; Hematological malignancies

Pumped hydro energy storage and 100 % renewable electricity for East Asia

Rapid cost reductions have led to the widespread deployment of renewable technologies such as solar photovoltaics (PV) and wind globally. Additional storage is needed when the share of solar PV and wind in electricity production rises to 50-100%. Pumped hydro energy storage constitutes 97% of the global capacity of stored power and over 99% of stored energy and is the leading method of energy storage. Off-river pumped hydro energy storage options, strong interconnections over large areas, and demand management can support a highly renewable electricity system at a modest cost. East Asia has abundant wind, solar, and off-river pumped hydro energy resources. The identified pumped hydro energy storage potential is 100 times more than required to support 100% renewable energy in East Asia.

Impact of Battery Cost on the Economics of Hybrid Photovoltaic Power Plants

In recent years, photovoltaic (PV) technology has experienced a rapid cost reduction. This trend is expected to continue, which in many countries drives interest in utility-scale PV power plants. The main disadvantage of such plants is that they operate only when the sun is shining. The installation of PV modules together with energy storage and/or fossil fuel backup is a way to solve that issue, but consequently increases the costs. In the last few years, however, lithium-ion batteries as well have shown a promising price reduction. This paper studies the competitiveness of a hybrid power plant that combines a PV system, lithium-ion battery and gas turbine (GT) compared to conventional fossil-fuel power plants (coal and natural gas-fired) with focus on the battery cost. To fulfil the demand an auxiliary GT is used in the hybrid PV plant, but its annual generation is limited to 20% of the total output. The metric for the comparison of the different technologies is the levelized cost of energy (LCOE). The installation of the plants is showcased in Morocco, a country with excellent solar resources. Future market scenarios for 2020 and 2030 are considered. A sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the key parameters that influence LCOE.

Live births after simultaneous avoidance of monogenic diseases and chromosome abnormality by next-generation sequencing with linkage analyses

In vitro fertilization (IVF), preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD), and preimplantation genetic screening (PGS) help patients to select embryos free of monogenic diseases and aneuploidy (chromosome abnormality). Next-generation sequencing (NGS) methods, while experiencing a rapid cost reduction, have improved the precision of PGD/PGS. However, the precision of PGD has been limited by the false-positive and false-negative single-nucleotide variations (SNVs), which are not acceptable in IVF and can be circumvented by linkage analyses, such as short tandem repeats or karyomapping. It is noteworthy that existing methods of detecting SNV/copy number variation (CNV) and linkage analysis often require separate procedures for the same embryo. Here we report an NGS-based PGD/PGS procedure that can simultaneously detect a single-gene disorder and aneuploidy and is capable of linkage analysis in a cost-effective way. This method, called "mutated allele revealed by sequencing with aneuploidy and linkage analyses" (MARSALA), involves multiple annealing and looping-based amplification cycles (MALBAC) for single-cell whole-genome amplification. Aneuploidy is determined by CNVs, whereas SNVs associated with the monogenic diseases are detected by PCR amplification of the MALBAC product. The false-positive and -negative SNVs are avoided by an NGS-based linkage analysis. Two healthy babies, free of the monogenic diseases of their parents, were born after such embryo selection. The monogenic diseases originated from a single base mutation on the autosome and the X-chromosome of the disease-carrying father and mother, respectively.

Modeling cascading diffusion of new energy technologies: case study of residential solid oxide fuel cells in the U.S. and internationally

Subsidy programs for new energy technologies are motivated by the experience curve: increased adoption of a technology leads to learning and economies of scale that lower costs. Geographic differences in fuel prices and climate lead to large variability in the economic performance of energy technologies. The notion of cascading diffusion is that regions with favorable economic conditions serve as the basis to build scale and reduce costs so that the technology becomes attractive in new regions. We develop a model of cascading diffusion and implement via a case study of residential solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) for combined heating and power. We consider diffusion paths within the U.S. and internationally. We construct market willingness-to-pay curves and estimate future manufacturing costs via an experience curve. Combining market and cost results, we find that for rapid cost reductions (learning rate = 25%), a modest public subsidy can make SOFC investment profitable for 20-160 million households. If cost reductions are slow however (learning rate = 15%), residential SOFCs may not become economically competitive. Due to higher energy prices in some countries, international diffusion is more favorable than domestic, mitigating much of the uncertainty in the learning rate.