Cost reductions in renewables can substantially erode the value of carbon capture and storage in mitigation pathways

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<h2>Summary</h2> Tackling climate change requires a rapid transition to net-zero energy systems. A variety of different technologies could contribute to this transition, and uncertainty remains over their relative role and value. A growing school of thought argues that rapid cost reductions in renewables reduce the need for carbon capture and storage (CCS) in mitigation pathways. Here we use an integrated assessment model to explore how the value of CCS is affected by cost reductions in solar photovoltaics, onshore, and offshore wind. Low-cost renewables could erode the value of CCS by 15%–96% across different energy sectors. Renewables directly compete with CCS, accelerate power sector decarbonization, and enable greater electrification of end-use sectors. CCS has greatest value and resilience to low-cost renewables in sustainable bioenergy/industrial applications, with limited value in hydrogen/electricity generation. This suggests that targeted, rather than blanket, CCS deployment represents the best strategy for achieving the Paris Agreement goals. <h3>Science for society</h3> The cost of renewable technologies has plummeted in the last decade and is likely to fall further in the future. While renewables will play a dominant role in reducing emissions, it is unclear whether their falling costs make other solutions such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) unnecessary. We perform an in-depth exploration into how the role and value of CCS to decisionmakers is affected by cost reductions in wind and solar power. Cost reductions in renewables reduce the value of CCS by 15%–96%, depending on the energy system sector under consideration. CCS is therefore less valuable to policymakers due to cost reductions in renewables. Nevertheless, CCS retains value for decarbonizing industry and removing CO₂ from the atmosphere, and targeted CCS deployment should be prioritized. Further research could assess the value of CCS using a broader range of sustainability metrics, such as land, material, and health impacts.