GIS-based solar and wind resource assessment and least-cost 100 % renewable electricity modelling for Bolivia

Abstract

Rapid cost reductions of solar photovoltaics and wind offer a pathway to deep decarbonization of energy at low cost. Off-river pumped hydro energy storage provides mature, cheap and very large-scale storage that helps to balance variable generation and demand while avoiding environmental and social impacts. Many developing countries, especially those in the sunbelt, have the opportunity to adopt this pathway and bypass additional fossil fuel capacities while developing their economies. This study investigates the feasibility of such pathway for Bolivia, a country that relies heavily on fossil gas for both domestic energy consumption and export income. The current reliance on fossil gas, however, is untenable in the long-term due to the worldwide transition to low carbon energy, and the potential growth in per capita energy demand. Instead, a GIS-based resource assessment presented in this study identifies massive low-cost solar photovoltaic, wind and pumped hydro potential that are far more than needed to supply and balance the future electricity demand in Bolivia. A 10-year hourly energy balance model is presented of a future Bolivian electricity system with 100 % renewable electricity supplied by solar, wind and hydroelectricity, and balanced by off-river pumped hydro and high voltage transmission. It is found that the levelized cost of electricity is in the range $44–53/MWh across all scenarios, which is lower than the cost of electricity from new hydroelectricity or gas plants. Importantly, the costs modelled in this study are upper bounds because only technologies that are already deployed in large quantities worldwide are included.