Rain-fed Agriculture Research Articles

The Impact of Climate Change on Food Security and Malnutrition in East Africa

Food security and malnutrition were critical issues in East Africa, exacerbated by the region’s dependence on rain-fed agriculture and vulnerability to climate change. Climate-induced crop failures, water scarcity, and socioeconomic vulnerabilities significantly impacted food availability, nutritional quality, and health outcomes. The region faced reduced crop yields, elevated food prices, and limited infrastructure, hindering effective food distribution and access. Water scarcity affected agricultural productivity and health, while socioeconomic factors such as poverty, inequality, and gender disparities increase vulnerability. Comprehensive policy interventions focused on climate-resilient agriculture, efficient water management, and social safety nets are essential. Empowering women and integrating traditional knowledge with modern technologies were crucial for building resilience. This review synthesized current knowledge from recent studies and data to highlight the urgent need for integrated policy responses to ensure a sustainable and food-secure future for East Africa. Keywords: Climate Change, Food Security, Malnutrition, East Africa, Socioeconomic Vulnerability.

Management of Okra Shoot and Fruit Borer Earias vitella (Fab.) by Different Insecticides on Okra

The okra shoot and fruit borer (Earias vittella) is a significant pest affecting okra crops. It bores into the shoots and fruits, causing stunted growth and reduced yield. To combat this pest the present study was conducted during Kharif, 2023 at Rainfed Agriculture Research Farm, Department of Entomology, Bundelkhand University Jhansi. The investigation was carried out to evaluate the efficacy of different insecticides against okra shoot and fruit borer Earias vitella (Fab.), Nine insecticides including control (untreated) were sprayed three times on the okra crop resulted all treatments were significantly effective over control. Among all treatments emamectin benzoate 5% SG was found best effective to control the shoot and fruit infestation caused by E. vitella in all three sprays followed by fluebendiaminde 480% EC and spinosad 45% SC. Among all treatments maximum C:B ratio was obtained from the emamectin benzoate 5% SG (147.56 qt/hac and 1:1.57) followed by spinosad 45% SC (1:1.46), indoxacarb 14.5% SC (1:1.37).

Farmers Coping and Adaptation Mechanisms to Perceived Changes and Variability in Climate

There is a growing global concern about the detrimental effects of climate change and variations on rain-fed agriculture. This study determined households’ perceptions of changes and variations in climate and institutional roles in farmers' coping and adaptation mechanisms to changes and variations in climate in Paicho Sub County (S/C), Gulu district in Northern Uganda. Data was collected through structured household interviews and analyzed using regression analysis and descriptive statistics. Findings showed that respondents perceived rainfall and temperature to be the climatic parameters that had changed most with rainfall onset largely unpredictable. The major coping mechanisms to changes and variations in climate included: buying food from the market, exchange of labor for food, and getting food help from relatives, community, and food agencies while, the major adaptation mechanisms included: getting jobs outside agriculture, adjustment of planting dates, diversification of production, carrying out mixed cropping, and growing improved crop and animal varieties. Additionally, the gender (P<0.05), the size of the land (P<0.05), and the age of the household head (P<0.05) were found to be the most significant factors influencing adaptation mechanisms. Furthermore, the role of existing institutions in community adaptation to changes and variations in climate included: making decisions on planting time, providing access to information relevant to coping and adaptation, providing access to credit, governing entitlements, and capacity building. In conclusion, there is a need for better and new crop varieties that can survive under changed and varied climatic conditions, and a need for more enhanced adaptation mechanisms

Zai Pits as a Climate-Smart Agriculture Technique in Southern Kenya: Maize Success Is Influenced More by Manure Than Depth

In semi-arid southern Kenya, climate change is putting rainfed agriculture at risk with major implications for food security. The zai pit, a Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) technique, has proven to enhance yields in arid regions, but its labor demands have limited adoption rates. This study assessed how the zai pit depth and manure application within zai pits influenced maize (Zea mays) success (i.e., growth, development, and productivity). Three zai pit treatments were prepared at the Wildlife Works Research Center in southeastern Kenya: (1) deep (50 cm) with manure; (2) shallow (25 cm) with manure; and (3) deep (50 cm) without manure, and all were compared to a non-zai pit control (surface planting). Maize growth/development (e.g., height, stage, roots) and productivity (e.g., yield) measurements were taken over two growing periods. For most measures, shallow zai pits performed equally as well as deep zai pits, with both performing better than the control. Zai pits without manure performed significantly worse than zai pits with manure, oftentimes not differing from the control. Results suggest that maize success is influenced more by manure than the depth of the pit. Kenyan farmers are encouraged to dig shallower, manure-enriched zai pits to enhance food security in response to climate change.

Projected impact of solar radiation modification geoengineering on water deficit risk over major Central African river basins

Abstract The economy of Central African countries strongly depends on rain-fed agriculture and hydropower generation. However, most countries in this subregion do not yet have the irrigation technologies that are already applied in many more advanced nations, which further exposes them to the serious risk of severe drought caused by global warming. This study investigates the potential impact of solar radiation modification (SRM) geoengineering on the water availability over the four major river basins that cross most of Central African countries (i.e. Niger Basin, Lake Chad Basin, Cameroon Atlantic Basin (CAB) and Congo Basin). For this purpose a potential water availability index was computed based on an ensemble-mean simulations carried out in the framework of Phase 6 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project considering two SRM simulation experiments: the stratospheric sulphate aerosol injection (G6sulfur) and the global solar dimming (G6solar). The climate change simulation results in a robust decreases by up to 60% in water availability, most pronounced over the CAB under the high radiative forcing scenario. Therefore, in a business-as-usual world, the reduction in water availability combined with the rapid population growth expected by 2050 in the studied subregion, could result in a significant water deficit over Central African countries towards the end of the 21st century. This water deficit could affect all activities that depend on water resources, such as water supply, agriculture and hydropower generation. Furthermore, the results also show that SRM methods have the potential to significantly reduce this deficit by increasing water availability (as compared to climate change) by up to 50% over the affected river basins, with a more accentuated increase found in the CAB when the global solar dimming is applied. These results suggest good possibilities of adaptation for populations living in the geographical areas of these river basins.

Gendered implications for climate change adaptation among farmers in Madagascar

ABSTRACT Climate change is impacting farmers worldwide; none more so than the millions of smallholder farmers who rely entirely on rain-fed agriculture. Adapting agricultural practices is an important strategy to mitigate climate change’s harmful impacts to food security and livelihoods. Researchers have increasingly sought to understand the factors influencing farmer decision-making on adaptation practices but application of important theories in low-income country contexts is lacking. Therefore, we apply the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) to examine farmer intention to adopt agricultural practices in response to climate change based on a survey of 328 smallholder farmers in rural Madagascar. Using structural equation modeling (SEM) to describe the relationship between social connectedness (e.g., interactions with others about farming-related issues), PMT constructs (threat and coping appraisal), and intention to adapt agricultural practices to climate change, we find that coping appraisal is a stronger predictor of intention to adapt than threat appraisal. Further, SEM results show a significant negative relationship between social connectedness and threat appraisal – farmers with greater social connectedness perceive climate change to be less of a threat. Additionally, as female farmers are significantly less socially connected than male farmers, this study provides further evidence of the gendered vulnerabilities to climate change among smallholders. This research has implications for the design of policies and interventions that consider farmer social networks, critical for reducing threat and building coping capacity, in supporting adaptation to climate change among vulnerable farmer populations.

Evaluation of Organic Manure Amendments on Soil Carbon Saturation Deficit in a Rainfed Agriculture System of Himalaya, India

ABSTRACT Organic manure amendments into the rainfed agricultural soil could change the carbon saturation deficit. This study was conducted in the central Himalayan region of India to assess the impact of varying quantities of farmyard manure (FYM) and vermicompost (VC) on changes of soil carbon saturation deficit in the rainfed agricultural system. The experimental plots with three replications and three different amendment rates, such as 15, 30, and 60 Mg ha−1 of FYM and VC were used on the traditional paddy-wheat-finger millet-fallow cropping system. The soil amended with FYM and VC showed significant (p < .05) variations in the soil carbon content, nitrogen content, total microbial activity, β-glucosidase activity, and acid phosphatase activity with an increasing rate of both the manures in each cropping season. The mean soil carbon saturation deficit values varied from 25 to 36% and 19 to 28% in the first year cropping and second year cropping seasons, respectively. Our results demonstrate that the VC amendment was better than FYM for the accumulation of more carbon content in the rainfed agricultural soils of Himalaya, whereas the organic manure amendment rates must be considered for climate change impact mitigation action policy in the future.

Determining the onset and cessation of seasonal rains in Shire Valley, Southern Malawi

Background: Malawi's agricultural activities rely heavily on rainfall. Rain signals the start of a distribution of rain that is unsuitable for plant development, whereas lighting marks the end of rain's ability to support plants. Malawi's tropical savanna climate has a rainy season from November to April, accounting for 95% of total annual rainfall, and a dry season from May to October, with milder temperatures and occasional showers at higher elevations from May to July. Methods: This study examines the commencement and cessation of seasonal rainfall in the Shire Valley, southern Malawi, between 1990 and 2019. The objectives include identifying rainfall characteristics, examining trends in the start, closure, and length of the rainy season, and categorizing onset and narrative dates. The Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services provided daily rainfall data, and dates were determined using R-Instat. Findings: Rain often begins in Nsanje on November 28, followed by Ngabu on December 7, and Nchalo on December 9. The advertising dates are comparable across stations: April 3 for Nchalo and Ngabu, and April 5 for Nsanje. While most years fall within the typical range, global phenomena like La Niña and El Niño can cause early or late results. Conclusion: These insights are crucial for sustainably managing and developing socioeconomic activities at the national and district levels in Malawi. Novelty/Originality of this Study: This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the onset and cessation dates of the rainy season, utilizing long-term rainfall data spanning from 1990 to 2019. This localized analysis addresses existing gaps in the understanding of regional rainfall characteristics, which is essential for enhancing agricultural planning and mitigating resource wastage in an area heavily reliant on rain-fed agriculture.

Perspective of Water-Use Programs in Agriculture in Guanajuato

Integrated agricultural water management (IAWM) encompasses multiple factors, necessitating the evaluation of performance across programs and involved entities and local consideration in different regions. This study analyzes the relation of allocation budgets and government agency programs in relation to the average annual availability of groundwater in Guanajuato State. Documentary investigation was conducted on public programs, aquifer availability, and agricultural land types over the period from 2017 to 2023. In the last six years, the amounts allocated to government programs from subsidies and donations have increased by 40%, leading to enhanced agricultural productivity in the state. Considering the agricultural types (rain-fed, irrigated, and protected) as separate variables, simple linear regression explains 97.8% of the variability in the DMA, indicating a decrease of 78.2 million m3 and an increase in irrigated agriculture. The estimator for the budget allocated to public programs is −2.21 × 10−7, indicating that even if the resources allocated to government programs related to the use and exploitation of water in the agricultural sector increase, the DMA will continue to decrease. Regarding the agriculture area type, the estimator has a value of −0.00237, indicating that each rain-fed or irrigated agriculture unit established would result in an approximate reduction of 2370 m3 of water in the DMA. Taking this into account, it is imperative to formulate strategies that consider intersectoral links, with a focus on prioritizing essential actions in rain-fed areas for water capture and/or irrigated agricultural areas for food production, which comprise 52% of the total land dedicated to the agricultural sector, and specifically targeting actions that promote groundwater management.

Indigenous Knowledge Collection in NICRA-AICRPAM Domain Districts for Weather Events

Indigenous Technical Knowledge (ITK) is the experience of local people gained from past generation and forefathers. Knowledge base is gained through tradition and culture. Prevailing knowledge is used in making farming operational management for gain in crop production. Crop and irrigation cycles are also being followed through traditional knowledge base and advanced techniques are available now. However, importance of the treasure of knowledge gained from forefathers and inherited to local people in present situation can't be ignored. Indigenous technical knowledge (ITK) is the assemblage of awareness and understanding of various facts which people have developed over a large span of time and continue to expand it. Social participation gives an idea of the respondent's participation in social activities. The NICRA-AICRPAM project has been carried out since 2011 in Chhattisgarh state. Main objective of the project is developing climate resilient technologies in agriculture. This ITK collection can be one effective mean to achieve this objective. The study was conducted to identify indigenous knowledge prevailing among the village side in NICRA domain districts Mahasamund and Kanker (Chhattisgarh state). The study was to examine traditional knowhow of farmers in Kanker and Mahasamund districts of Chhattisgarh during 2021 and their scope of application in farming activities. The objective of survey was to collect and document traditional knowledge base from the local farmers so as to work towards climate resilience in agriculture. As rainfall is the main factor in rainfed agriculture, stress was on collection of knowledge regarding rainfall prediction. The study was conducted under CRIDA, Hyderabad sponsored NICRA-AICRPAM project entitled “National Innovations on Climate Resilient Agriculture”. Project has been implemented in Department of Agrometeorology, Indira Gandhi Krishi Vishwavidyalaya, Raipur, (C.G.) since 2011. Here in this paper the astronomical, environmental and biological indicators perceived by local masses in forecasting rainfall have been collected, identified and examined. This knowledge will help its utilization in agricultural operations and practices. Interviews were conducted by Field Information Facilitators by contacting masses and peasants. Various indigenous technical knowledge of the project domain area were collected and analyzed. Experience of seasonal rainfall forecasting can be strengthened by using this knowledge base. ITK techniques of rainfall prediction may serve as supplemental knowledge base to advanced scientific technologies.

Vulnerability to Climate Change and Communal Conflicts: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa and South/South-East Asia

This paper examines the influence of climate change vulnerability on the likelihood and severity of communal violence, with a particular emphasis on delineating large-scale regional patterns. Specifically, the analysis centres on Sub-Saharan Africa and South/South-East Asia – both regions being predominantly characterised by rain-fed agriculture and climate-sensitive economic activities – spanning the years 1995 to 2021. Relying on the ND-GAIN Vulnerability Index as a multidimensional measure for propensity of societies to be negatively impacted by climate change, we found robust evidence that greater vulnerability is conducive to a higher likelihood and severity of communal violence in Sub-Saharan Africa. On the other hand, in South/South-East Asia, results suggest that current climate variability, measured as rainfall deviations within the period, exerts a greater effect on communal violence outbreak than overall vulnerability to climate change. In both regions, greater access to productive means is significantly associated to the reduction of communal violence.

Mapping China's reserved arable lands and its sustainable cropping layout.

Reserved arable lands in China is of great significance for rationally allocating crop planting structures, alleviating the pressure of grain imports, and protecting food security. Owing to data acquisition limitations, obtaining the spatial distribution of reserved arable lands at large spatial scales is relatively rare, and there is little information on predicting the suitability, production capacity, and ecological effects of crop cultivation in reserved arable lands. This study obtained the distribution of reserved arable lands in China by applying restrictive factors, and used the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) suitability index for eight crops to obtain a spatial distribution map of suitable crops, proposed a cropland ecological efficiency index (CEEI) to analyse the ecological impact of crop cultivation in reserved arable lands. China possesses approximately 3.93 million hectares of viable reserved arable lands comprising primarily grasslands (67.68%), sandy land (8.11%), saline-alkali land (20.68%), and bare land (3.53%). The average CEEI for the eight crops under irrigation conditions ranges from 0.844 to 0.865, and that under rain-fed conditions (excluding rice) ranges from 0.609 to 0.779. We proposed the development of rain-fed agriculture with sorghum as the primary crop in the central part of Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, while promoting the cultivation of rapeseed and soybeans in the eastern parts of Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Inner Mongolia. Overall, the development of irrigation agriculture focusing on wheat and barley should be pursued only when water resources are guaranteed, particularly in north-western regions such as Gansu, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Qinghai, and Shaanxi. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.

Enhancing climate resilience in northern Ghana: A stochastic dominance analysis of risk-efficient climate-smart technologies for smallholder farmers

Northern Ghana is a semi-arid region characterised by a unimodal rainfall pattern, and hot and dry weather conditions. Heavy reliance on rain-fed agriculture and the lack of resources for irrigation, makes smallholder farmers in the region increasingly vulnerable to climate-related crop failures. In recent years, climate-smart technologies (CSTs) such as changing planting dates (PD), compartmental bunding (CB), mulching (M), and transplanting (TP) have been recommended to minimise yield losses. However, there is limited information on the most risk-efficient CSTs for crops cultivated in the region. This study used a stochastic dominance approach to identify the most risk-efficient CSTs for maize, rice, and sorghum. The stochastic modelling process employed the Aqua-crop model to simulate climate-related yield variability using Ghana climate data, and gross margin variability with crop budgets from literature sources. From the study's findings, changing planting date from April to May was the most risk-efficient choice for maize and sorghum under farmers' and recommended practices. In contrast, transplanting was the most risk-efficient technology for rice farming in the study area. The study also highlights the importance of considering the risk-averse nature of smallholder farmers when selecting CSTs. By identifying the most risk-efficient CSTs, the study can help improve the resilience of smallholder farmers. These findings have important implications for the development and adoption of CSTs in northern Ghana.

Revitalizing Rainfed Agriculture: The Transformative Potential of Watershed Development

Revitalizing Rainfed Agriculture: The Transformative Potential of Watershed Development

PERCEPTIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND THEIR DETERMINANTS AMONG THE SMALLHOLDER FARMERS IN MACHAKOS COUNTY

Climate change is expected to affect the livelihoods of smallholder farmers in Machakos County due to their overdependence on rain-fed agriculture. Farmers perception of climate change and variability influences their understanding and management of climate change-induced risks and uncertainties, especially in rain-fed agriculture. The study was carried out to evaluate smallholder farmers awareness and perception of climate change and the factors influencing the perception of climate change in Machakos County. Data was collected from 400 farmers from six locations sampled through a multistage and simple random sampling procedure. The Heckman probit model was fitted to the data to avoid sample selection bias since not every farmer who may perceive climate change responds by adapting. The analysis revealed that 96% of smallholder farmers in Machakos County were aware of climate change, 87.3% perceived that temperature was rising, and 96.8% perceived that rainfall was decreasing. In this regard, the age of the household head, Gender, education, household size, group membership, distance to the nearest input sellers, distance to the closest market access to insurance, land size, off-farm income, access to information on climate change, access to extension services, access to credit, changes in temperature and rainfall were found to have a significant influence on the probability of farmers to perceive and/or adapt to climate change.

Food and water insecurity in households of children and adolescents living with HIV and receiving care in a rural Zambian hospital: A mixed-methods study.

Approximately 62,000 Zambian children are living with HIV. HIV care and treatment is generally more limited in rural areas, where a heavy reliance on rain-fed subsistence agriculture also places households at risk of food and water insecurity. We nested a mixed methods study with an explanatory sequential design in a clinical cohort of children and adolescents living with HIV (CHIV) in rural Zambia. We used validated questionnaires to assess household food and water insecurity and examined associations between indicators derived from those scales, household characteristics, and HIV treatment adherence and outcomes using log-binomial regression. We identified caregivers and older CHIV from food insecure households for in-depth interviews. Of 186 participants completing assessments, 72% lived in moderately or severely food insecure households and 2% in water insecure households. Food insecurity was more prevalent in households of lower socioeconomic status (80% vs. 59% for higher scores; p = 0.02) and where caregivers had completed primary (79%) vs. secondary school or higher (62%; p = 0.01). No other characteristics or outcomes were associated with food insecurity. Parents limited both the quality and quantity of foods they consumed to ensure food availability for their CHIV. Coping strategies included taking on piecework or gathering wild foods; livestock ownership was a potential buffer. Accessing sufficient clean water was less of a concern. During periods of drought or service interruption, participants travelled further for drinking water and accessed water for other purposes from alternative sources or reduced water use. Community contributions afforded some protection against service interruptions. Overall, while food insecurity was prevalent, strategies used by parents may have protected children from a measurable impact on HIV care or treatment outcomes. Reinforcing social protection programs by integrating livestock ownership and strengthening water infrastructure may further protect CHIV in the case of more extreme food or water system shocks.

Potential of Modified Reduced Tillage with Cover/Green Manure Crop for Climate Change Mitigation in a Smallholder Rainfed Farming System

Soil can function as a reservoir and a source of greenhouse gases (GHGs), contingent on its management. This study assesses the potential of a modified reduced tillage (MRT) approach involving the use of cover or green manure crops as a substitute for crop residues to mitigate GHG emissions from soil within smallholder rainfed farming systems. A two-year field experiment with different tillage techniques (moldboard plow, tine cultivator, and modified reduced tillage) and crop rotations (summer fallow–wheat and cover/green manure–wheat) was conducted at Rawalpindi, Pakistan. The results showed that MRT reduced carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions by 8% and 15.3%, respectively, from soil while maintaining consistently higher soil moisture than conventional tillage techniques. The modified reduced tillage reduced the global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) by 15.8% and 20.7%, respectively. The net ecosystem exchange (NEE) was unaffected by the tillage systems. Therefore, adopting the MRT technique and incorporating green manure is a viable strategy for curtailing GHG emissions from soil, particularly in the context of smallholder rainfed farming systems. Extended, multi-year studies under various climate scenarios and agronomic practices are needed to understand the long-term impacts of MRT and crop rotations on GHG emissions.

Assessing and predicting land cover dynamics for environmental sustainability in Jordan's arid ecosystems using CA-Markov model

Jordan's arid ecosystems face a threat of environmental degradation due to increasing human activities driven by a growing population and economy. This study assesses Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes in regional and ecoregional landscapes, particularly in a region with an east-west environmental gradient, spanning 41 years (1990–2030). The study utilizes the Jordan National Land Cover Dataset (JNLCD) for historical data and employs the CA-Markov model to generate a future land cover map. The results revealsignificant changes, particularly the tripling in size of urban areas at the expense of primary croplands. The Steppe ecoregion, known for its fragility, experienced shifts into irrigated agriculture practices and loss of natural rangelands. The period between 2000 and 2015 marked as the most dynamic period as the region landscape underwent significant change due to population growth and influx of refugees. During this period, 123 km2 of rainfed agricultural areas were consumed by urbanization while rainfed agriculture activities expanded into sparsely-vegetated/barren areas (55 km2). Additionally, 33 km2 of sparsely-vegetated/barren areas were transformed into irrigated agriculture. This study offers a comprehensive and innovative analysis of LULC changes in Jordan's arid ecosystems. While it highlights the ecological importance of the region and its potential to enhance environmental resilience, it also underscores the negative impact of human interventions, which have disrupted spatial arrangement, connectivity, stability, and structure. By bridging historical data with future projections, employing detailed landscape metrics, and addressing socio-economic drivers, this work provides valuable insights for sustainable land use planning and environmental conservation in Jordan.

Influence of changes in solar activity on Nigerian Rainfall

This paper focuses on the impact of solar activity changes on rainfall in Nigeria. Rainfall data were got from Gridded Time Series (CRU TS v4) of the University of East Anglia, United Kingdom. Various statistical tools like Pearson rank correlation coefficient, regression analysis, covariance, skewness, and kurtosis are employed in the study. The results show that there are generally weak correlations between rainfall and solar activity in most seasons. However, low correlation coefficients (0.0424 and 0.1040, respectively for sunspot numbers and F10.7 mean a very weak positive relationship between early rainfall, main rainfall and annual rainfall and negative for dry season rainfall and Harmattan rainfall. Also, there is a negative time-series relationship between the rainfall amount in dry and Harmattan seasons, with the highest rainfall amount during low solar activity and vice versa. Therefore, it can be concluded that solar activity has little effect on Nigeria's annual and main season rainfall. However, during the dry season and Harmattan, heavy rainfall appears to be associated with low solar activity, while high solar activity appears to be associated with low rainfall. This study will be beneficial to farmers in Nigeria, majority of whom are peasant farmers that practice rain-fed farming.

Sustainability insights: Enhancing rainfed wheat and barley yield prediction in arid regions

Climate variability plays a pivotal role in rainfed agriculture, especially within arid regions. Analyzing these fluctuations across diverse climatic conditions establishes a foundation for subsequent investigations. In Iran, the FAO56 aridity index categorizes the nation into very dry, dry, semidry, and humid climate classifications. This study aimed to explore equations derived from multiple linear regression (MLR) and the disparities between predicted and observed yields of rainfed wheat and barley across Iran's varying climates. Meteorological data, encompassing rainfall (R), mean temperature (Tmean), solar radiation (S), and wind speed (U2), were compiled from 44 synoptic stations spanning 1981–2020. These data constituted inputs for the MLR models employed to simulate rainfed wheat and barley yields. The Global Performance Indicator (GPI), a 5-point statistical criteria index, was utilized to assess MLR model performance. The findings unveiled superior MLR model performance in dry climates (R2=0.84 for wheat and R2=0.9 for barley) compared to humid climates (R2=0.69 for wheat and R2=0.66 for barley), evidenced by lower statistical error criteria values. Moreover, across all climates, the MLR models exhibited more accurate predictions for rainfed wheat yield (GPI=1559.3) in contrast to rainfed barley (GPI=1536). In conclusion, this study sheds light on the notable role of climate in rainfed agriculture, showcasing the efficacy of MLR models in predicting yields across varying climatic contexts.