Sahel Rainfall Research Articles

Anthropogenic Aerosols Modulated 20th-Century Sahel Rainfall Variability Via Their Impacts on North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature.

The Sahel rainfall has a close teleconnection with North Atlantic sea surface temperature (NASST) variability, which has separately been shown to be affected by aerosols. Therefore, changes in regional aerosols emission could potentially drive multidecadal Sahel rainfall variability. Here we combine ensembles of state‐of‐the‐art global climate models (the CESM and CanESM large ensemble simulations and CMIP6 models) with observational data sets to demonstrate that anthropogenic aerosols have significantly impacted 20th‐century detrended Sahel rainfall multidecadal variability through modifying NASST. We show that aerosol‐induced multidecadal variations of downward solar radiative fluxes over the North Atlantic cause NASST variability during the 20th century, altering the ITCZ position and dynamically linking aerosol effects to Sahel rainfall variability. This process chain is caused by aerosol‐induced changes in radiative surface fluxes rather than changes in ocean circulations. CMIP6 models further suggest that aerosol‐cloud interactions modulate the inter‐model uncertainty of simulated NASST and potentially the Sahel rainfall variability.

Rainfall Recovery in North-East Arid Zone of Nigeria: Comparative Analysis of Drought and Post Drought Decades

This study used annual rainfall records from three stations within the North East Arid Zone of Nigeria for the period (1957-2017) to measure the extent of the rainfall recovery by comparing the drought decades and post drought decades rainfall patterns. Monthly rainfall records from Potiskum, Maiduguri and Nguru Stations were used. Descriptive and inferential statistical tools were employed in analysing the data. The findings of the study revealed a significant year-to-year variability in rainfall characteristics around 61 years (1957-2017) averages. The variability was large in 1970s up till 1990s, and lower in 1960s and from 2000 to 2018. Decreasing trend in annual rainfall amount was observed during the study period while a stability in onset and cessation dates were observed. The differences between 1957-1986 and 1987-2017 climatic season were found to be statistically insignificant. The study concluded that the reported rainfall recovery from drought is statistically insignificant and the observed long term mean trend revealed a decreasing trend. Therefore, the theory of Sahel rainfall recovery can be better termed as a ‘’break of the series of drought or decline in frequency and magnitude of occurrence of drought’’ The research recommended the continuations with the drought adaptation and mitigation strategies adopted by local population, decisions makers and organizations following the series Sahelian droughts of 1970s and 1980s.

Understanding mechanisms for trends in Sahelian squall lines: Roles of thermodynamics and shear

AbstractSquall lines dominate rainfall in the West African Sahel, and evidence suggests they have increased in intensity over recent decades. Stronger wind shear may be a key driver of this trend and could continue to strengthen with climate change. However, global numerical models struggle to capture the role of shear for organised convection, making predictions of changing rainfall intensities in the Sahel uncertain. To investigate the impact of recent and possible future environmental changes, and to isolate thermodynamic effects from shear effects, idealised squall line simulations were initialised with a profile representative of the present day: this profile was then modified using trends from reanalyses and climate projections. Increased shear led to increased storm intensity and rainfall, but the effects of the thermodynamic changes dominated the effects from shear. Simulations initiated with future profiles produced shorter‐lived storms, likely due to increased convective inhibition and the absence of large‐scale convergence or synoptic variability in the idealised model. A theoretical model based on the relative inflow of convectively unstable air and moisture was found to predict bulk characteristics of the storms accurately, including mean rain rates and area‐averaged maximum vertical velocities, explaining the role of shear. However, the model is not a prognostic tool as rainfall is dependent on the storm speed, which remains a free parameter. The study shows the importance of shear to long‐term rainfall trends and highlights the need for climate models to include effects of shear to capture changes in extreme rainfall.

Improved Rainfall Prediction through Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with Exogenous Variables: A Case Study in Andes High Mountain Region

Precipitation is the most relevant element in the hydrological cycle and vital for the biosphere. However, when extreme precipitation events occur, the consequences could be devastating for humans (droughts or floods). An accurate prediction of precipitation helps decision-makers to develop adequate mitigation plans. In this study, linear and nonlinear models with lagged predictors and the implementation of a nonlinear autoregressive model with exogenous variables (NARX) network were used to predict monthly rainfall in Labrado and Chirimachay meteorological stations. To define a suitable model, ridge regression, lasso, random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and NARX network were used. Although the results were “unsatisfactory” with the linear models, the specific direct influences of variables such as Niño 1 + 2, Sahel rainfall, hurricane activity, North Pacific Oscillation, and the same delayed rainfall signal were identified. RF and SVM also demonstrated poor performance. However, RF had a better fit than linear models, and SVM has a better fit than RF models. Instead, the NARX model was trained using several architectures to identify an optimal one for the best prediction twelve months ahead. As an overall evaluation, the NARX model showed “good” results for Labrado and “satisfactory” results for Chirimachay. The predictions yielded by NARX models, for the first six months ahead, were entirely accurate. This study highlighted the strengths of NARX networks in the prediction of chaotic and nonlinear signals such as rainfall in regions that obey complex processes. The results would serve to make short-term plans and give support to decision-makers in the management of water resources.

Fingerprints of external forcings on Sahel rainfall: aerosols, greenhouse gases, and model-observation discrepancies

Over the 20th and 21st centuries, both anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases and changes in anthropogenic aerosols have affected rainfall in the Sahel. Using multiple characteristics of Sahel precipitation, we construct a multivariate fingerprint that allows us to distinguish between the model-predicted responses to greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols. Models project the emergence of a detectable signal of aerosol forcing in the middle of the 20th century and a detectable signal of greenhouse gas forcing at the beginning of the 21st. However, the signals of both aerosol and greenhouse gas forcing in observations emerge earlier and are stronger than in the models, far stronger in the case of aerosols. The similarity between the response to aerosol forcing and the leading mode of internal variability makes it difficult to attribute this model-observation discrepancy to errors in the forcing, errors in the forced response, model inability to capture the amplitude of internal variability, or some combination of these. For greenhouse gases, however, the forced response is distinct from internal variability as estimated by models, and the observations are largely commensurate with the model projections.

The effects of anthropogenic and volcanic aerosols and greenhouse gases on twentieth century Sahel precipitation

There is little scientific consensus on the importance of external climate forcings—including anthropogenic aerosols, volcanic aerosols, and greenhouse gases (GHG)—relative to each other and to internal variability in dictating past and future Sahel rainfall. We address this query by relating a 3-tiered multi-model mean (MMM) over the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 “twentieth century” and pre-Industrial control simulations to observations. The comparison of single-forcing and historical simulations highlights the importance of anthropogenic and volcanic aerosols over GHG in generating forced Sahel rainfall variability in models. However, the forced MMM only accounts for a small fraction of observed variance. A residual consistency test shows that simulated internal variability cannot explain the residual observed multidecadal variability, and points to model deficiency in simulating multidecadal variability in the forced response, internal variability, or both.

Quantifying flight aptitude variation in wild Anopheles gambiae in order to identify long-distance migrants

BackgroundIn the West African Sahel, mosquito reproduction is halted during the 5–7 month-long dry season, due to the absence of surface waters required for larval development. However, recent studies have suggested that both Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto (s.s.) and Anopheles arabiensis repopulate this region via migration from distant locations where larval sites are perennial. Anopheles coluzzii engages in more regional migration, presumably within the Sahel, following shifting resources correlating with the ever-changing patterns of Sahelian rainfall. Understanding mosquito migration is key to controlling malaria—a disease that continues to claim more than 400,000 lives annually, especially those of African children. Using tethered flight data of wild mosquitoes, the distribution of flight parameters were evaluated as indicators of long-range migrants versus appetitive flyers, and the species specific seasonal differences and gonotrophic states compared between two flight activity modalities. Morphometrical differences were evaluated in the wings of mosquitoes exhibiting high flight activity (HFA) vs. low flight activity (LFA).MethodsA novel tethered-flight assay was used to characterize flight in the three primary malaria vectors- An. arabiensis, An. coluzzii and An. gambiae s.s. The flights of tethered wild mosquitoes were audio-recorded from 21:00 h to 05:00 h in the following morning and three flight aptitude indices were examined: total flight duration, longest flight bout, and the number of flight bouts during the assay.ResultsThe distributions of all flight indices were strongly skewed to the right, indicating that the population consisted of a majority of low-flight activity (LFA) mosquitoes and a minority of high-flight activity (HFA) mosquitoes. The median total flight was 586 s and the maximum value was 16,110 s (~ 4.5 h). In accordance with recent results, flight aptitude peaked in the wet season, and was higher in gravid females than in non-blood-fed females. Flight aptitude was also found to be higher in An. coluzzii compared to An. arabiensis, with intermediate values in An. gambiae s.s., but displaying no statistical difference. Evaluating differences in wing size and shape between LFA individuals and HFA ones, the wing size of HFA An. coluzzii was larger than that of LFAs during the wet season—its length was wider than predicted by allometry alone, indicating a change in wing shape. No statistically significant differences were found in the wing size/shape of An. gambiae s.s. or An. arabiensis.ConclusionsThe partial agreement between the tethered flight results and recent results based on aerial sampling of these species suggest a degree of discrimination between appetitive flyers and long-distance migrants although identifying HFAs as long-distance migrants is not recommended without further investigation.

Impact of volcanic aerosol hemispheric symmetry on Sahel rainfall

The semi-arid African Sahel region is highly sensitive to changes in monsoon precipitation, as much of the region’s workforce is employed in the agricultural industry (Hamro-Drotz and Programme 2011). Thus, studying the response of rainfall and aridity in this region to radiative perturbations is a matter of pressing humanitarian relevance. In addition, there is evidence to suggest that spatially asymmetric volcanic aerosols produce different hydroclimatic responses based on their hemispheric symmetry, both globally and in the Sahel. We use two different climate models, GFDL’s FLOR model (Vecchi et al. in J Clim 27(21):7994–8016, 2014) and NCAR’s CESM 1.1 model (Otto-Bliesner et al. in Bull Am Meteorol Soc 97(5):735–754, 2016), to characterize the response of rainfall in the Sahel to large volcanic eruptions based on the meridional symmetry of the volcanic eruptions. We find that in both the FLOR experiments simulating three large twentieth century eruptions and in the CESM Last Millennium Ensemble simulations of 46 historic volcanic eruptions, asymmetric Northern Hemisphere cooling causes a subsequent drying response in the Sahel, and Southern Hemisphere cooling causes a wetting, or “greening” response. Symmetric volcanic eruptions have a relatively small effect on rainfall in the Sahel. We also find that the FLOR results show a consistent response in the annual rainfall cycle in the Sahel for all three of the eruptions analyzed, with a reduction in rainfall in early summer followed by an increased rainfall in late summer. The annual cycle response of rainfall in the Sahel from the CESM experiments is different, in that the SH eruptions cause a rainfall maximum in August, NH eruptions cause a rainfall minimum in September, and symmetric eruptions show a slight increase in August and a decrease in October. Our results highlight the need for accurate meridional structures in historic volcanic forcing data used for climate models as well as the need for further study on regional effects of hemispherically asymmetric radiative forcing, especially as they might pertain to aerosol geoengineering.

Climate anomalies affect annual survival rates of swifts wintering in sub-Saharan Africa.

Several species of migratory swifts breed in the Western Palearctic, but they differ in reproductive traits and nonbreeding areas explored in Africa. We examined survival and recapture probabilities of two species of swifts by capture–mark–recapture data collected in northern Italy (Pallid Swift Apus pallidus in Carmagnola, Turin, and Common Swift Apus apus in Guiglia, Modena) in the breeding season (May–July). Apparent survival rates were relatively high (>71%), comparable to other studies of European swifts, but showed marked annual variations. We used geolocators to establish the exact wintering areas of birds breeding in our study colonies. Common Swifts explored the Sahel zone during migration and spent the winter in SE Africa, while the Pallid Swifts remained in the Sahel zone for a longer time, shifting locations southeast down to Cameroun and Nigeria later in winter. These movements followed the seasonal rains from north to south (October to December). In both species, we found large yearly differences in survival probabilities related to different climatic indices. In the Pallid Swift, wintering in Western Africa, the Sahel rainfall index best explained survival, with driest seasons associated with reduced survival. In the Common Swift, wintering in SE Africa, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle performed significantly better than Sahel rainfall or North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Extreme events and precipitation anomalies in Eastern Africa during La Niña events resulted in reduced survival probabilities in Common Swifts. Our study shows that the two species of swifts have similar average annual survival, but their survival varies between years and is strongly affected by different climatic drivers associated with their respective wintering areas. This finding could suggest important ecological diversification that should be taken into account when comparing survival and area use of similar species that migrate between temperate breeding areas and tropical wintering areas.

The Tropical Easterly Jet over Africa, its representation in six reanalysis products, and its association with Sahel rainfall

AbstractThis paper compares the characteristics of the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) and upper‐level winds in six reanalysis products, compares them with soundings at seven West African locations, examines the relationship between Sahel rainfall and the TEJ, and examines factors influencing the TEJ. The jet characteristics assessed by MERRA2, NCEP 1, JRA 55, and ERA 5 are similar. CFSR and 20th Century Reanalysis are outliers in nearly every analysis, overestimating wind speeds by as much as 25 to 40% compared to other reanalyses. Over the period 1948 to 2014, the correlation between rainfall and TEJ magnitude is .72. Arguments based on observations and modelling studies provide evidence that on interannual scales changes in the TEJ are not forced by rainfall, that large‐scale factors drive the TEJ. Potential mechanisms are discussed for a causal relationship such that a strong jet leads to high rainfall. However, further modelling efforts are needed to conclusively determine whether the TEJ/Sahel rainfall link is a result of common forcing factors. The factors that appear to control jet strength include sea‐surface temperature (SST) contrast between the central equatorial Pacific and central equatorial Indian Ocean (correlation of −.64), SST contrast between the central equatorial and the southern subtropical Indian Ocean (correlation of −.39), the latitude of the shift between upper‐tropospheric easterlies and westerlies in the Southern Hemisphere (correlation of −.84 at 150 hPa), and the intensity of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies (correlation of +.52 at 200 hPa). This suggests considerable control on the TEJ by extra‐tropical circulation in the Southern Hemisphere.

Advances in the Lead Time of Sahel Rainfall Prediction With the North American Multimodel Ensemble

AbstractWe assess the deterministic skill in seasonal climate predictions of Sahel rainfall made with the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME). We find that skill for a regionally averaged rainfall index is essentially the same for forecasts for the July–September target season made as early as February/March and as late as June. The two dominant influences on the climate of the Sahel, the North Atlantic and the global tropical oceans, shape this predictability. Multimodel ensemble skill hinges on the combination of skillful predictions of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation made with one model (CMC2‐CanCM4) with those of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures made with another (NASA‐GEOSS2S).

What Drives the Intensification of Mesoscale Convective Systems over the West African Sahel under Climate Change?

AbstractExtreme rainfall is expected to increase under climate change, carrying potential socioeconomic risks. However, the magnitude of increase is uncertain. Over recent decades, extreme storms over the West African Sahel have increased in frequency, with increased vertical wind shear shown to be a cause. Drier midlevels, stronger cold pools, and increased storm organization have also been observed. Global models do not capture the potential effects of lower- to midtropospheric wind shear or cold pools on storm organization since they parameterize convection. Here we use the first convection-permitting simulations of African climate change to understand how changes in thermodynamics and storm dynamics affect future extreme Sahelian rainfall. The model, which simulates warming associated with representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) until the end of the twenty-first century, projects a 28% increase of the extreme rain rate of MCSs. The Sahel moisture change on average follows Clausius–Clapeyron scaling, but has regional heterogeneity. Rain rates scale with the product of time-of-storm total column water (TCW) and in-storm vertical velocity. Additionally, prestorm wind shear and convective available potential energy both modulate in-storm vertical velocity. Although wind shear affects cloud-top temperatures within our model, it has no direct correlation with precipitation rates. In our model, projected future increase in TCW is the primary explanation for increased rain rates. Finally, although colder cold pools are modeled in the future climate, we see no significant change in near-surface winds, highlighting avenues for future research on convection-permitting modeling of storm dynamics.

Larger Future Intensification of Rainfall in the West African Sahel in a Convection‐Permitting Model

AbstractMonsoon rainfall in West Africa mostly comes from mesoscale convective systems, which are not well represented by standard convection‐parameterized regional climate models (RCMs). We use a 4.5 km resolution convection‐permitting RCM (CP4A) which has a good representation of these processes in the Sahel. By comparing the climate change signals of CP4A and a standard RCM (R25), we find that changes in mean rainfall and wet‐day frequency are linearly related. However, rainfall intensity changes are independent. Intensification of rainfall is larger in CP4A and happens in regions of both increasing and decreasing mean rainfall. Rainfall from extreme events increases by a factor of 5 to 10 in CP4A, compared to 2 to 3 in R25. CP4A also shows larger changes in intraseasonal rainfall variability, dry spells, and short and long duration extreme rainfall than R25, all of which are relevant for hydrology and agriculture.

The Influence of Remote Aerosol Forcing from Industrialized Economies on the Future Evolution of East and West African Rainfall

Abstract Past changes in global industrial aerosol emissions have played a significant role in historical shifts in African rainfall, and yet assessment of the impact on African rainfall of near-term (10–40 yr) potential aerosol emission pathways remains largely unexplored. While existing literature links future aerosol declines to a northward shift of Sahel rainfall, existing climate projections rely on RCP scenarios that do not explore the range of air quality drivers. Here we present projections from two emission scenarios that better envelop the range of potential aerosol emissions. More aggressive emission cuts result in northward shifts of the tropical rainbands whose signal can emerge from expected internal variability on short, 10–20-yr time horizons. We also show for the first time that this northward shift also impacts East Africa, with evidence of delays to both onset and withdrawal of the short rains. However, comparisons of rainfall impacts across models suggest that only certain aspects of both the West and East African model responses may be robust, given model uncertainties. This work motivates the need for wider exploration of air quality scenarios in the climate science community to assess the robustness of these projected changes and to provide evidence to underpin climate adaptation in Africa. In particular, revised estimates of emission impacts of legislated measures every 5–10 years would have a value in providing near-term climate adaptation information for African stakeholders.

Rainfall trends in the African Sahel: Characteristics, processes, and causes.

Sahel rainfall is dynamically linked to the global Hadley cell and to the regional monsoon circulation. It is therefore susceptible to forcings from remote oceans and regional land alike. Warming of the oceans enhances the stability of the tropical atmosphere and weakens deep ascent in the Hadley circulation. Warming of the Sahara and of the nearby oceans changes the structure and position of the regional shallow circulation and allows more of the intense convective systems that determine seasonal rain accumulation. These processes can explain the observed interannual to multidecadal variability. Sea surface temperature anomalies were the dominant forcing of the drought of the 1970s and 1980s. In most recent decades, seasonal rainfall amounts have partially recovered, but rainy season characteristics have changed: rainfall is more intense and intermittent and wetting is concentrated in the late rainy season and away from the west coast. Similar subseasonal and subregional differences in rainfall trends characterize the simulated response to increased greenhouse gases, suggesting an anthropogenic influence. While uncertainty in future projections remains, confidence in them is encouraged by the recognition that seasonal mean rainfall depends on large‐scale drivers of atmospheric circulations that are well resolved by current climate models. Nevertheless, observational and modeling efforts are needed to provide more refined projections of rainfall changes, expanding beyond total accumulation to metrics of intraseasonal characteristics and risk of extreme events, and coordination between climate scientists and stakeholders is needed to generate relevant information that is useful even under deep uncertainty.This article is categorized under:Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Modern Climate Change

Sahel Rainfall–Tropical Easterly Jet Relationship on Synoptic to Intraseasonal Time Scales

Abstract The tropical easterly jet (TEJ) is a characteristic upper-level feature of the West African monsoon (WAM) circulation. Moreover, the TEJ over West Africa is significantly correlated with summer Sahel rainfall on interannual and decadal time scales. In contrast, the relationship between Sahel rainfall and the regional TEJ on synoptic to intraseasonal time scales is unclear. Therefore, this relationship is investigated by means of multiple statistical analyses using temporally highly resolved measurement and reanalysis data. It is shown that average correlations between convective activity and regional TEJ intensity remain below 0.3 for all synoptic to intraseasonal time scales. Especially on the synoptic time scale, the TEJ significantly lags anomalies in convective activity by one or two days, which indicates that convection anomalies are more likely to drive changes in the regional TEJ than vice versa. To further shed light on the role of the TEJ for rainfall over West Africa, a previously proposed effect of TEJ-induced upper-level divergence on the development of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is examined more closely. An analysis of nearly 300 Sahelian MCSs shows that their initiation is generally not associated with significant TEJ anomalies or jet-induced upper-level divergence. Furthermore, no statistically significant evidence is found that preexisting TEJ-related upper-level divergence anomalies affect intensity, size, and lifetime of MCSs. A limiting factor of this study is the focus on TEJ-induced upper-level divergence. Therefore, a possible effect of the TEJ on Sahel rainfall via other mechanisms cannot be ruled out and should be subject to future studies.

Changing Migratory Behaviors and Climatic Responsiveness in Birds

Change of avian migratory behavior is one of the best-studied phenomena presumably associated with contemporary climate change, yet to what degree these behavioral changes represent responses to climate warming is still controversial. We investigated the inter-specific variation in change of migratory behavior over three decades at a Central-European site, testing whether the type and extent of such changes are predicted by the species’ responsiveness to short-term variation in large-scale climatic indices. We found that species with earlier arrivals after winters with higher North-Atlantic Oscillation indices were more likely to overwinter at the study site; this behavior was more frequent in the second than in the first half of the study, although the extent of this change was not predicted quantitatively by short-term climatic responsiveness. Overwintering was more prevalent in short-distance migrants with more complex diets and larger population sizes. Furthermore, species arriving earlier after summers with higher Sahel rainfall indices increasingly advanced their first arrival date, whereas species that do not molt in the pre-breeding season increased their frequency of overwintering in more recent years. Our results demonstrate that interspecific variation in short-term climatic responsiveness predicts long-term changes in migratory behaviors, supporting that the latter are responses to climate change. Furthermore, the type of response (advancing arrivals or overwintering near the breeding grounds) depends on life history. Finally, we found that overwintering behavior during the study period predicted subsequent trends in population size, suggesting that information on temporal changes in migratory strategy may help conservation planning and risk assessment.

Different trends of neighboring populations of Lesser Kestrel: Effects of climate and other environmental conditions

AbstractThe sensitivity of population trends to the climate and environment is generally considered a species‐specific trait. However, evidence that populations may show different responses to the climate and environmental conditions is growing. Whether this differential sensitivity may arise even among neighboring populations remains elusive. We compared the trends of two neighboring populations of the Lesser Kestrel Falco naumanni, using data from a 12‐year survey of 158 colonies in Sicily, Italy; the two populations inhabiting a lowland and an highland area, respectively. Population trends were modeled through the TRIM algorithms implemented in R (package rtrim). A reversed U‐shaped population trend was observed in the lowland, while the highland population showed oscillations around a stable trend. Sahel rainfall 2 years before each annual survey significantly affected population variation in the lowland, while rainfall in March and an index of primary productivity in the breeding areas affected population variation in the highland. This suggests that the population in the lowland may be limited mainly by winter survival in Sahel, because the lowland may be an optimal breeding area for this species. In contrast, the highland population, which occupies a different part of the climatic niche of the species, may be limited mainly by reproductive output, because rainfall in March and the primary productivity in May could represent prey availability immediately before and during the breeding months. Overall, our findings suggest that population‐specific environmental sensitivity might occur even over small (<100 km) geographical scales, highlighting the need for population‐specific conservation strategies.

Oceanic Forcing on Interannual Variability of Sahel Heavy and Moderate Daily Rainfall

AbstractThis article analyzes SST remote forcing on the interannual variability of Sahel summer (June–September) moderate (below 75th percentile) and heavy (above 75th percentile) daily precipitation events during the period 1981–2016. Evidence is given that interannual variability of these events is markedly different. The occurrence of moderate daily rainfall events appears to be enhanced by positive SST anomalies over the tropical North Atlantic and Mediterranean, which act to increase low-level moisture advection toward the Sahel from the equatorial and north tropical Atlantic (the opposite holds for negative SSTs anomalies). In contrast, heavy and extreme daily rainfall events seem to be linked to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Mediterranean variability. Under La Niña conditions and a warmer Mediterranean, vertical atmospheric instability is increased over the Sahel and low-level moisture supply from the equatorial Atlantic is enhanced over the area (the reverse is found for opposite-sign SST anomalies). Further evidence suggests that interannual variability of Sahel rainfall is mainly dominated by the extreme events. These results have implications for seasonal forecasting of Sahel moderate and heavy precipitation events based on SST predictors, as significant predictability is found from 1 to 4 months in advance.

Using Information Theory to Evaluate Directional Precipitation Interactions Over the West Sahel Region in Observations and Models

AbstractWater availability has historically been one of the most significant threats to African regional social and economic well‐being. Over the Sahel region, a megadrought during the 1960s and 1970s induced by an abrupt and substantial rainfall reduction caused widespread famine and death. The postdrought recovery, which is still ongoing, has been characterized by gradual increases in rainfall, but with dramatic fluctuations. The large negative human impacts, slow recovery, and variability raise important questions of why and how rainfall dynamics evolve and interact with other components of the regional climate system. Here we provide an observational assessment of rainfall interactions mechanisms (informed by directional transfer of information entropy) that regulate Sahel rainfall. We quantitatively demonstrate that (1) sea surface temperature over the Gulf of Guinea controls moisture advection and transport to the West Sahel region and (2) strong bidirectional interactions exist between local vegetation dynamics and rainfall patterns. Then we assess the directional interaction patterns from nine state‐of‐the‐art Earth System Models (ESMs). We find that most ESMs are able to represent either the unidirectional control of sea surface temperature on precipitation or the bidirectional interaction between vegetation and precipitation. However, none of the ESMs represents both interactive patterns. The GFDL and IPSL‐CM5A‐LR models successfully reproduced observed patterns over ~50% of the West Sahel region but were not accurate in reproducing observed precipitation regional trends or interannual variation. We propose that the directional information transfer is a powerful mechanistic benchmark to assess model fidelity at the process level.