Abstract
This study used annual rainfall records from three stations within the North East Arid Zone of Nigeria for the period (1957-2017) to measure the extent of the rainfall recovery by comparing the drought decades and post drought decades rainfall patterns. Monthly rainfall records from Potiskum, Maiduguri and Nguru Stations were used. Descriptive and inferential statistical tools were employed in analysing the data. The findings of the study revealed a significant year-to-year variability in rainfall characteristics around 61 years (1957-2017) averages. The variability was large in 1970s up till 1990s, and lower in 1960s and from 2000 to 2018. Decreasing trend in annual rainfall amount was observed during the study period while a stability in onset and cessation dates were observed. The differences between 1957-1986 and 1987-2017 climatic season were found to be statistically insignificant. The study concluded that the reported rainfall recovery from drought is statistically insignificant and the observed long term mean trend revealed a decreasing trend. Therefore, the theory of Sahel rainfall recovery can be better termed as a ‘’break of the series of drought or decline in frequency and magnitude of occurrence of drought’’ The research recommended the continuations with the drought adaptation and mitigation strategies adopted by local population, decisions makers and organizations following the series Sahelian droughts of 1970s and 1980s.
Highlights
West African Sahel is one the most ecologically vulnerable regions of the world
Rainfall recovery was reported in several empirical studies, suggesting the Sahel rainfall pattern shift to wetter conditions, while other studies on African dry land ecosystem reported recovering from drought of 1970s and 1980s as against the mainstream paradigm of irreversible land degradation in Sahel
The available scientific studies on West African Sahel rainfall reported a common shift towards wetter condition [15, 14, 13, 16, 12]
Summary
West African Sahel is one the most ecologically vulnerable regions of the world. Since 17th century paleoclimatic evidence reveals that West African Sahel has been experiencing series of historical drought, the 20th century series of Sahelian drought started in the 1910s, the 1940s, 1960s and reached its peak in 1970s, especially in the 1971,1972,1973 and 1974, followed by 1980s with most recent in 2012. Sahelian droughts occur without leaving its imprint on environment and livelihood This ecological zone is characterized by strong climatic variations and irregular rainfalls, which pose a serious threat to ecosystem and livelihood (Sahel and West African Club 2006). The greening scenario is reported in number of studies [3, 4], Husai et-al 2014; [5, 6; 7, 8, 9; 10,11, 23] They reported a surprising increase in Normalize Differentials Vegetation Index (NDVI) result in West African Sahel between 1982 and 2008 as against the orthodox view of progressive degradation, most of the studies attributed the greening to increase rainfall after 1980s drought, using almost similar methodology. This study used annual rainfall records from three stations within the Sahel for the period (1957-2017) to measure the extent of the rainfall recovery by comparing the drought decades and post drought decades rainfall pattern
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